Rupert's Racing Thread

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 12.25 Lingfield - 2pts win Kiss A Prince @ 9/2 (Bet365) Dean Ivory's charge is obviously well-handicapped, running off a mark of 67 today, having previously won off 76. Four of his five career wins have come off higher marks. He's running himself back into form of late and will capitalise on his low mark very soon - and I believe that day will be today. His most recent three runs have been hugely promising. He first finished a 5 1/2l 4th of 9 over a trip too far of 1m5f at Lingfield. The winner essentially won off 56 with the rider's claim and won easily off 70 last time out. 2 starts ago, Kiss A Prince shaped as if wanting a step back in trip over 1m4f. Even though he's won over it in the past, 4 of his wins have come over shorter, and today's trip of 1m2f suits ideally in my opinion. He had a wide draw but ran pretty well to be beaten just 2 1/4l. And last time out he got even closer - finishing 1 1/2l behind the winner at Wolverhampton from a wide draw in stall 13. This was an amateur riders' race and there were some half-decent horses in there for the level. It was a good effort and shaped as if the trip today would be right up his street. He returns back to the scene of all of his victories, at his ideal trip, with the blinkers back on, and a more experienced jockey in Shane Kelly. His mark is good, and must go well.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

12.25 Lingfield - 2pts win Kiss A Prince @ 9/2 (Bet365) Dean Ivory's charge is obviously well-handicapped, running off a mark of 67 today, having previously won off 76. Four of his five career wins have come off higher marks. He's running himself back into form of late and will capitalise on his low mark very soon - and I believe that day will be today. His most recent three runs have been hugely promising. He first finished a 5 1/2l 4th of 9 over a trip too far of 1m5f at Lingfield. The winner essentially won off 56 with the rider's claim and won easily off 70 last time out. 2 starts ago, Kiss A Prince shaped as if wanting a step back in trip over 1m4f. Even though he's won over it in the past, 4 of his wins have come over shorter, and today's trip of 1m2f suits ideally in my opinion. He had a wide draw but ran pretty well to be beaten just 2 1/4l. And last time out he got even closer - finishing 1 1/2l behind the winner at Wolverhampton from a wide draw in stall 13. This was an amateur riders' race and there were some half-decent horses in there for the level. It was a good effort and shaped as if the trip today would be right up his street. He returns back to the scene of all of his victories, at his ideal trip, with the blinkers back on, and a more experienced jockey in Shane Kelly. His mark is good, and must go well.

Price has been chopped in to 7/2 and 3/1 in places since I started the post! Will take 7/2 (Hills)

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.15 Kempton - 2pts e/w Like A Hurricane @ 8/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 odds Alan King's top-weight was a decent animal over hurdles and looks capable of outclassing his rivals here on suitable good ground. He has to improve for his recent reappearance on his chasing debut - but he certainly can. He won a decent novice handicap over 2m4f at Ascot last year but shaped as if three miles over hurdles just caught him out in the closing stages. I anticipate no problems at the trip over fences though and he should go well. The sharp 2m3f at Taunton on his comeback won't have been ideal, and he made mistakes along the way. This was his first run over the larger obstacles and his first run of the season in general so is entitled to come on massively for it. He was still beaten only 10 1/2l and it was a decent race. It was won by the useful 130-rated hurdler Oldrik (won handicap since) with 128-rated unexposed hurdler Mr Hudson in second. A 19l chase debut winner was in third, also, so it wasn't a bad effort after a lay-off. Hopefully he'll jump better today and with race-fitness, the track, and the step up in trip likely to bring out more, I expect a good run. He has to prove himself against some more experienced chasers who will put his jumping under strain, but he has a touch of class some of these don't have. Only Witness rates as the main danger for me.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.50 Kempton - 2pts win Decoy @ 15/2 (Hills) Featherbed Lane looks a really nice type, but there's a swing in the weights today with Decoy on their running at Ascot and I hope that David Pipe's charge can reverse the form today. On that occasion, Decoy aimed to use all the speed he showed when blitzing the field for much of the contest at Cheltenham (held on by a head) over the shorter two-mile trip, but was harried through the race and it set it up rather for the Philip Hobbs runner. An error at the last didn't help my selection's cause and I think he has sound chances returning to the trip he won at previously. Even though he tired in the closing stages, he was entitled to, having motored around the track. He obviously stays this far to hold on up the Cheltenham hill, and the error at the last will have taken some gas out of him. There do appear to be some other front-runners in the race so I'd be quite happy to see Tom Scudamore have the horse just tracking the pace over this trip. Front-runners often do well at Kempton so I would like to see him handy but not necessarily forcing it. He was quite visually impressive at Cheltenham despite the diminishing margin at the line, with the blinkers on first time, and conditions should suit him today off 7lbs higher. He has to pull out a bit more, but I think the trip suits (entitled to tire also at Cheltenham with it being his first run for a while), and the yard is going well. Should run well.

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Drifted to 9/2 anyway haha. Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.40 Kempton - 2pts e/w Hierarch @ 6/1 (PP) - 1/4 odds Apprentice handicap over a mile and it's difficult to see David Simcock's charge out of the frame. This horse has been in good form, but clearly needs weak races to get his head in front - and he did just that, coming to nail Rock Anthem late in the day over c&d two starts ago. Rock Anthem was giving my selection 5lbs on that occasion and with Alice Haynes' claim, is 3lbs better off - even though the form was reversed at Wolverhampton late time. However, the first three were very prominent throughout and it was tough for Hierarch to get on terms. Still stayed on to run respectively, though. Alice Haynes, who won on the horse two starts ago, is back on board, and the return to Kempton will suit. I think Storm Runner might just struggle off this mark with no claiming rider on board, and I take Hierarch to be back in the winner's enclosure here.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.40 Kempton - 2pts win All The Winds @ 7/2 (Hills) Posted this before his recent c&d win:

5.50 Kempton - 1pt e/w All The Winds @ 14/1 (Hills) - 1/4 odds Competitive handicap and one which gives some value to some bigger priced horses. Shaun Lycett's flat-cum-hurdler has been in decent form over timber, and returns to the flat at the scene of his comfortable 10f victory last November. He ran well in a better race won by Modun at Newbury after that, shaping as if 1m4f would suit him better. He does seem to get that far (beaten neck on one of two starts over trip) and he can get it today at this track. I think his most recent hurdling effort can be ignored on very testing ground, and he's shown his liking for this surface on the level. Ryan Powell takes 5lbs off his back, making him only 1lb higher than his c&d win and should get the race run to suit.

Did it really well - much like he did when winning previously at the track. Was slowly away from his wide draw (maybe the same today) and came very wide up the straight but motored home. Essentially gone up 5lbs for that but he did it really nicely and I don't think that overestimates him. This isn't a tougher race really and holds a couple of these I reckon. Should put in another bold bid.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.10 Kempton - 2pts win Cantor @ 6/1 (Hills) Cantor's been a frustrating character but I think he time may be now as he runs over 1m3f today at Kempton. Didn't show much in maidens - leading to his lowly mark - but has shown much more promise in weak handicaps. He ran similar races in his first two races since getting a mark, where he didn't travel towards the rear, before plugging on under pressure late in the day without ever getting dangerous. However, I thought he showed a great deal more promise last time - for all he was beaten over 4l. He was placed more prominently by Joe Fanning and travelled much better than previously in about fourth position. Looked a threat up the straight but just tired late on. The step back by a furlong should suit on this evidence and also, that was his first run in four months so was entitled to need it, too. I think with that under his belt, another good run is on the cards if he travels as well as he did that day. It isn't a good race and he should be bang there.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread So many of my flat horses are drifting at the moment. Horses very rarely go from 7/2 out to 13/2 and win on the all-weather.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread All came off the pace in that one. Pfft.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.25 Wolverhampton - 4pts win One Way Or Another @ 9/4 (PP) This looks to mainly concern the three horses who finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd over a c&d claimer on Boxing Day. Bawaardi won that day, but One Way Or Another only went down by a head and with Raul Da Silva's claim taking off 5lbs, is weighted to reverse the form with his stable companion today. My selection should also have the beating of Ezra Church - who ran poorly last time despite not getting any luck in the run. Da Silva's mount is holding his form well and I think he'll take this.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.40 Plumpton - 2pts e/w Might As Well @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) - 1/5 odds Seamus Mullins has had some horses go well lately and this horse is coming down in the handicap and this race looks the easiest he's contested in a little while. He's won handicaps over hurdles and fences off a mark of 100 - and he runs off 92 today despite showing some ability in his last couple of starts. He won over this trip on his first run for the yard at Wincanton in October 2010 before a year off the track and a trip too short saw him underperform at Towcester in November. Testing conditions at Hereford strung the horses out behind the decent staying chaser Strongbows Legend and even though he was tailed off in 4th, many were pulled up, and the race actually worked out okay. Again was beaten 24l in 3rd last time but stayed on behind a progressive winner who may have racked up the hat-trick were it not for a fall on his only run since. The extra 2f today will suit and his mark dropped a further 2lbs. I don't think he'll meet anything quite as good/well-treated today in this weaker race and should be cherry-ripe for this now. Has been running in 0-105s but returns to a 0-95 and it can make all the difference.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Don't think Thornton should have had him vying for the lead. Seemed to go a yard too fast. All of his form is from off the pace. Ran okay to a point.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.25 Wolverhampton - 4pts win Anginola @ 7/2 (Boyles) This horse has a good chance at the weights and has the visor applied today having thrown away her chance at Kempton last time by hanging badly left. Prior to that, she showed some solid form on the all-weather that would give her a leading chance in this race. 3 starts ago she ran well over an insufficient 7f at Kempton before running soundly over today's c&d behind a subsequent winner. This race looks weak and she looks likely to run up to near her mark. She's the highest rated horse in the race and runs off joint-bottom weight with Ryan Powell taking a further 3lbs off. Looks well-in at the weights and will take the beating.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Easy. Shame she came back in to 7/2 after being 9/2 for a bit before the off. Still, a 4pt bet won and salvages the day. Each-way bet to nothing in the last in an eight-runner race imo: 5.25 Wolverhampton - 2.5pts e/w Clean Bowled @ 6/1 (Bet365) - 1/5 odds This eight runner contest really ought to be fought out by the first three in the market, and my selection probably shouldn't be quite so big. Still, I fully expect him to finish in the top three at least and would be no surprise to see him win. Still a maiden, the ex Brian Meehan-trained horse has run well on both starts since joining Alan McCabe. He clearly enjoys the polytrack and stayed on over an insufficient 7f trip in an okay handicap at this track two starts ago behind a horse who racked up a 4 race winning sequence before going down by 1/2 last time. Last time out, he had to come widest of all to challenge behind today's favourite and went down by just under 2l from that rival. Yes, that one did hang and they race off the same terms today, but Jamie Spencer's mount got a nice run on the inside whereas my selection was forced four wide round the bend. He kept on well under pressure and the resolve of the favourite under pressure is questionable. An extra furlong looks sure to suit my selection and he can get closer today. Quixote has a decent chance with the blinkers on again, but I don't think there's so many pts separating that one and Clean Bowled in my opinion. Clive Brittain's horses could be going better and McCabe's are running perfectly well. Really ought to make the frame at least which is why it's a max e/w bet for me.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread It had to be. Always, every time, inevitably 4th. No run either round the bend. Should have placed, but nope, a 22/1 shot in 3rd.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Flat: Total bets: 304 Won : 40 placed: 78 Total staked: 874pts Total returned: 841pts Total P/L: -33pts Jumps: Total bets: 112 Won: 16 Placed: 21 Total Staked: 350pts Total Returned: 306pts Total P/L: -44pts Need some momentum. No progress in the last few weeks.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.40 Ayr - 3pts win Dowd's Destiny @ 5/2 (Bet365) Spent quite a while on this race and am quite happy to have fallen on Nicky Richard's charge here. Tricky four runner novice chase and at the weights, he's probably not the best in, but his rating of 122 doesn't really do him justice having hacked up last time. He's had a disjointed career so far - having registered just six starts in over four years, but obviously has bundles of ability, and can prove that now getting a run in on the track. He won his second hurdling start before finishing 3rd next time out over a three mile trip that possibly stretched him. However, he always shaped like a chaser, and was sent over the larger obstacles when returning to the track after a year off in November. It was a hugely promising effort at Market Rasen when leading up the run-in before being chinned by the rallying favourite. He was very much entitled to need that run so it was a fine effort. The horse on terms 2 out before falling has won since, and the winner ran a good race behind a well-handicapped sort last time out despite jumping blemishes. My selection came to today's track last time out and won very well. He jumped pretty well and cruised into the race. He clearly had plenty left in the tank as when Dougie Costello shook the reins, he went clear very easily and won by 14l without any fuss or real pressure being applied. He beat a 114 horse into second that day - and definitely is better than a rating of 122 on that evidence as he could have won by any distance in reality. Of his rivals today, I feel that Blenheim Brook may be vulnerable at the finish, for all he is officially best in at the weights. He carries a penalty for a penalty kick last time out - beating horses far inferior to him on figures. I think that may well stop him today. Yes Tom is the main threat in my eyes, having shown decent form over hurdles before a promising chase debut after a break. Came down last time, though, and can jump slowly occasionally. Best form has come on deep ground so I side with Dowd's Destiny, with his yard going well, and with good ground no inconvenience. Storming Gale will need fallers in my opinion.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.10 Ayr - 3pts win Allanard @ 3/1 (Bet365) Quinder Spring hasn't been in the best of form this season and is unlikely to have things his own way up front and I prefer the Martin Todhunter trained Allanard, with the favourite - Sammy Spiderman - not getting his beloved heavy ground today. The visor is applied for the first time on Allanard today, just to keep him straight I presume, as he can put in the odd erratic leap. It was definitely the case last time out when he ran well at Catterick. However, he was strongly bumped twice before making a mistake, and energy was used up getting back on terms at a crucial point in the race. He could offer no more up the run-in and went down by nearly 10l to two in-form horses. The ground was also softer than ideal and three miles on slightly better ground is ideal for him. Prior to that run, he raced quite lazily over shorter and didn't jump as well as he can. He stayed on but could never get involved at Market Rasen and build on a decent reappearance behind a very well-handicapped horse at Wetherby (when not supported in the market). Raced much more enthusiastically last time when up with the pace and must go well today as long as the visor has no detrimental effects. Ballycarron Lad has been off for a while and is one-paced. Gifted the race at Carlisle in March by the leaders going off much too fast. There's a good chance he'll be outpaced again today, but I doubt they'll be coming back quick enough at the finish for him.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.30 Folkestone - 2pts e/w Swaninstockwell @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) - 1/4 odds Going to take on the short-price favourite here with an each-way bet who would unlikely be 9/1 if with a bigger trainer than Pat Phelan. Very modest on the flat, this horse did show some ability at a lowly level before a poor couple of runs before he was sent over hurdles. Given little chance at 80/1, he stayed on well when many others were very tired to take 3rd in a novice race that has worked out well. He is the half-brother to a hurdle winner and looks capable of picking up a race himself. Proved he has the stamina for this when 3rd to a classy horse in Double Ross with yesterday's 5l winner Henry San in 2nd. His weight obviously helped him get involved that day in deep ground but it was a very encouraging effort and one he's sure to come on from. The yard's last two horses have won well and this might be the horse to put it to the favourite.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.00 Folkestone - 3pts win Causing Chaos @ 5/2 (Bet365) Near The Water hasn't won over two miles so the three mile trip here obviously casts some doubts, and Quazy De Joie may want further so Nigel Twiston-Davies' unexposed runner gets the verdict here with Andrew Turnell's horse returning from a long absence. Causing Chaos showed plenty of promise in two hurdles races in 2010 before being pulled-up on his 3rd - and subsequently being off the track for a year. Returned as good as ever at Towcester in November on good ground before disappointing favourite backers at Market Rasen. However, the ground was possibly too soft that day, and the test probanbly was sharp enough for him. He ran a good 4th on his chase debut last time out on good to soft ground and looks sure to come on for that run. The ground is better today with the yard in improving form and conditions look right for this horse who can get off the mark.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Great win from Allanard. Jumped superbly. Ought to have gone with him in the BBOTD but got dollar signs in front of my eyes!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread -1pts if Causing Chaos loses, +9.5pts if he wins. Hopefully he can do the business and make the day a decent one.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Jumped well and kept on doggedly under pressure. +9.5pts on the day. Shame the other two were poor but it was never likely to be a big profit given the shortish odds. Just need to build on that now.

[Stribs]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Good effort today Rupert. Profit is profit! I got on Allarmard, Dowds destiny and Chaos. Thnaks for posting your selections. I'm now waiting on Howaboutnow 4.10 to actually have a wonderful Tuesday. Keep up the good work!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.50 Southwell - 3pts win Chac Du Cadran @ 5/1 (Bet365) Even though this is a competitive-looking handicap hurdle, only one horse really catches my eye in it, and for that reason I think 5/1 is generous. Chris Bealby's winning pointer has made a big impact since being sent over hurdles and can notch up his second success under rules here. He ran a hugely encouraging 2l 2nd, and staying on, over 2m4f at Wetherby on his debut, and confirmed this promise when staying on determinedly to hold off the well-bred Desert Joe by 3 1/4l at Towcester next time out. That horse - also a point winner - was bought for £25k by Alan King and was sent off a 13/8 favourite for the race. Chac Du Cadran looked like a galloper with stamina on this occasion as he relentlessly kept going to pull away from his rival, who got himself on terms at 2 out. At the line, my selection had him well covered and it was a good effort. The step up to three miles was always likely to suit, and it will bring out the best in him. It was not the distance that saw him beaten 12l into third last time, but the competition. He met two well-treated rivals in boggy conditions at Uttoxeter - putting 15l behind him to the 4th placed runner. The winner of the race Thehillofuisneach was already well-in having won his previous race by 6l, and won in a higher grade to complete the hat-trick next time out off a mark of 130 - 22lbs higher than at Towcester! My selection gave him 6lbs but if they were to meet tomorrow, the weights would be reversed by fully 30lbs. Likewise, Theologist, who was second at Towcester, won easily next time out. He won by 12l to be now rated 125. He received 12lbs from my selection but were they to meet again tomorrow, there would be a swing of 11lbs. Giving weight was always going to be tough in the very testing ground, but I think he can carry top-weight to victory here. He's due to go up 6lbs and hopefully there won't be anything as well-treated today. I think there's certainly more to come from the horse, who can make Tom Messenger's travel to Southwell for the one ride a worthwhile one.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.35 Newbury - 3pts win Glens Boy @ 5/1 (Boyles) Competitive handicap and I can't go through horses and rule them out, but Henrietta Knight's horse surely must go well here, even if the yard's form has slowed a little in the last week or two. This horse gets in off a relatively light-weight and has plenty of potential in the staying chasing game. A big horse who looks every bit a chaser won two point-to-points in March 2009 and 2010 before being sent novice hurdling later that year. He did okay - finishing in midfield behind some useful animals (the likes of Ackertac, Court In Motion, Join Together, Roalco De Farges). It was no surprise to see this 8-year-old go over fences since being handicapped, albeit after a year off the racetrack. However, he put in a solid effort to be 4th at Huntingdon - keeping on up the long run-in without threatening. He was very much entitled to come on for that, and he stepped forward again last time when a very unlucky loser. He travelled and jumped well at Warwick and looked a good thing when going on between the last two flights. He seemed to idle in front, though, and gave a chance to Plum Pudding. He was kept up to work and would have held on but for a loose horse hampering him right at the end of the race - and he went down by a head with the jockey unable to do anything. The race looks rock solid form with the first two clear by 9 lengths and in-form horses being beaten. The horse in 4th has franked the form and I think a 9lb penalty isn't sufficient to stop him running another belter. Should be fully fit now, and has the chasing game cracked. Should get a good pace to travel in behind, should be wish to do so, and he looks a very deserving favourite who I think will take a bit of beating. Timmy Murphy takes the ride for his only one of the afternoon and he should have a good spin round.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Tricky horse to win with clearly that Glens Boy. Travelled and jumped well and you could tell he was just trying to nurse him home all the way up the straight. Did nothing in front but pulled out just enough when challenged agaion.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread I hope the market has it right with Chac Du Cadran - 2/1 from the 5/1 last night!

[cpo]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Nice winner mate. I fancied him myself but talked myself out of it because of the stable's record at the track :spank