Rupert's Racing Thread

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.10 Kempton - 3pts win Hawawi @ 11/4 (Hills) This horse has been on the drift a little bit since this morning which is a concern for a new yard/after break, but Jimmy Fortune travels to Kempton for one ride, this being it, and that suggests to me that this one is fancied to go well. He certainly should do on what he's shown in two starts on the level to date. He was a keeping on 3rd over a mile to Sea Moon on debut with an 87-rated horse in 2nd, and ran well after a break over today's c&d last June. 78, 94 and 72 were the horses ahead of him that day's ratings and was bound to come on for that. Even though he's got another absence to overcome tonight, this race doesn't look as strong. He was an expensive purchase and the current favourite didn't run in a race that was too great last time when third and looks beatable. Not much depth in the race and I think this horse will take the beating.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.40 Kempton - 3pts win Daniel Thomas @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) A weak race, this, and I think Richard Guest's runner should be clear favourite in all honesty. Doesn't have the world's best strike rate but won readily last time over a couple of furlongs further and remains well-handicapped on his best form. Has won off much higher marks - even though these were a few years ago, but has shaped really well this season and can strike again tonight. Met horses in-form, and subsequent winners when narrowly deprived here behind Shirataki and Prince Of Thebes a few starts ago and has also fallen foul to the thriving Trip Switch along the way. Was slowly away at Wolverhampton, and I don't think he's quite as good there as here/Lingfield before a ready success last time out. Could do with a good pace but there isn't anything that stands out in opposition to me. The others at the head of the market have won weaker races than my selection imo and I think he'll just have the extra bit of class to guide him home.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Not the typically strong Fortune there. Thought he would have gone for more based on the late market support. Only a couple of cracks. Perhaps had not much left anyway but should come on for that on first run for a long time. Travelled strongly.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Daniel Thomas, now the 9/2 favourite, needs to score to save the day.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Argento Chase, Cheltenham - 2.5pts e/w Time For Rupert @ 11/2 (PP) - 1/5 odds Personally I think Time For Rupert will run into a place at the least on Saturday and with slight doubts over Grands Crus' participation (for what it's worth I think he will run), the 11/2 looks a pretty sound each-way bet to me on a horse with no question marks hovering over him. I think 11/2 will look a good price should Pipe's runner not go so is worth a large but hopefully, relatively safe bet. This is a big day for Webber's horse, who needs to prove his Gold Cup credentials after a morale-draining defeat at Haydock, but is still a very classy animal and relishes the course at Cheltenham. Put in a good effort in the Charlie Hall considering he didn't look particularly fit that day behind Weird Al, and the fact that horse ran so well behind Kauto Star and Long Run at Haydock offers hope for Rupert, even though he was further behind on that occasion. His jumping was a bit lethargic up the straight and he probably shouldn't have been beaten as far as he was. Either way, he was pitched in behind the very highest-class horses and even though his jumping is very good, Kauto's was magnificent. Obviously the front two there battled it out again at Kempton in the King George and the race on Saturday isn't anywhere near as strong. I know Grands Crus will be tough to beat and he was impressive last time out, but he is yet to be tested against anything absolutely top-class yet. I rate Bobs Worth but he jumped a bit poorly at Kempton and although blatantly high-class, I don't think he's top-class, and the same applies to Silviniaco Conti. Rupert will enjoy racing against first, and second season chasers again I think as his main dangers (Diamond Harry 3rd season but still relatively new to the game) and I think he can reverse Haydock form with that one back at Cheltenham. I'm not convinced Captain Chris will get home so I think the fact Rupert is likely to run his race, gives him a top chance of being there or there abouts. His record at Cheltenham is excellent (122115) with no bad runs - seconds to Tidal Bay and Big Bucks over hurdles, and wasn't right when running a gallant race under the circumstances in last year's RSA. He relishes the test here and stays the trip strongly. Jumps well and his confidence booster last time was pretty straight-forward, even though the winning distance wasn't huge. Jumped well, O'Regan was very pleased with his effort up the straight, and this horse only really does enough. was only nudged out and it was a good performance from a horse who won't do too much on the bridle. The conditions are absolutely spot on for him and he will have to win this to have any real hope of lifting the Gold Cup in March. It still remains unlikely, but he has every chance of running respectively in the contest and that means he has a really sound chance of at the very least making the frame here. If he doesn't it would be a major disappointment and I think his proven jumping, stamina, and enjoyment of the track will make things difficult for the market leaders.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread No nervous moments there! Thanks Danny for saving matters!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Funny how things work in racing/selecting horses. If only I could get both flat and jumps horses going well in unison! +56pts on the flat in the last couple of months but the opposite over the sticks! At least the thread is in profit since the start of the jumps season...very close to profit on the flat overall. A couple of good days badly needed in NH! Especially with the Cheltenham graveyard on the way!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.45 Newcastle - 2pts win Fabalu @ 10/1 (Bet365) Really competitive staying chase over three miles here, which is sure to be a test in the mud, and that will suit Donald McCain's lightly raced 10yo. Each of Fabalu's four wins under rules have come on soft or heavy ground, including over three miles (hurdles and chases) and over even further, so today's test should be no problem at all. However, these wins came a couple of seasons ago. A mark of 138 was probably a little excessive, even though he never really got chance to test this out in handicaps in his later chasing runs, but 127 now is probably fair enough. He was a good 6th in the 4 mile contest at Cheltenham in 2010 - weakening gradually - but was a game winner of his two starts either side of that before being off the track for 18 months. His return at Ffos Las came under ideal conditions - a 3m2f chase on heavy ground - and for all he was well-beaten in the end, it was a really promising effort in my eyes. Considering his absence, the fact Henry Brooke was on board (no negative, but perhaps said he wasn't expected to do too much), and the way he edged out to 5/1 from 7/2 in the betting, meant he wasn't guaranteed to be ready. It was a good quality affair for a four horse race with the prolific Victory Gunner and high-class Swing Bill in there, and my selection took them along. He didn't miss a single fence out (until perhaps when beaten) and travelled/jumped better than anything. He was the last horse off the bridle, for all he didn't find much off it, and shaped as if plenty of ability remained. It was a real struggle out there for all of the horses, and even though he relishes this, it would have been a serious effort to keep up the gallop after such a long period on the sidelines. There was enough hope in the run to suggest he'd come on hugely for it and be a player this season. He's had a month off the track which is probably about right and should strip much fitter today. He jumped smartly at the Welsh venue and hopefully he can do so again here. He's a nice price at 10/1 and Jason Maguire takes the ride which is a positive move. Any market support would be very interesting and the fact that connections pitch him into a competitive race suggests they also feel the horse retains ability. Many of these have chances but the test might be a little too taxing for Tyrone House, whereas Allanard (tipped up when winning recently) has to prove he can do it on this kind of ground which makes him a lay. Eyre Square stays four miles so trying to win off a career-high mark back at 3 miles might be tricky. Anyway, my selection is well worth a smallish win bet at 10/1 with conditions to suit him down to the ground now he's race-fit.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.55 Warwick - 3pts win Inga Bird @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Another fairly trappy affair but Henry Daly's charge looks a bit overpriced to me at 5/1 and is well worth a medium-sized win bet. This horse showed plenty of form in his first three starts before losing his way for a few runs but has bounced right back this season and looks a decent staying chaser at his level. Returned with a solid 15l 2nd over hurdles after a break - losing to a nice type with subsequent thriving horses in behind, and improved even further when putting in a thoroughly game display on his hurdling debut at Huntingdon. Was under pressure for quite a long way but knuckled down very bravely to hold off the challenge of Only Witness by a neck. That horse won next time out, the third won his race prior to his Huntingdon effort, and the fourth was an unlucky 2nd (in the race my selection fell in) since before winning last time out. Therefore the form has substance so it was a top effort on his first start over fences. Came to Warwick and was in the process of running another nice race and was booked for third when falling at the last. Plugged on well enough late on to suggest the extra 2 furlongs will suit him here and the race again has plenty of strength to it. The unlucky 2nd - Glens Boy - got compensation in a good race next time out, the 3rd was travelling well when falling next time, and the 4th won next time out. He gets a couple of furlongs further today which looks likely to suit and Richard Johnson takes over in the saddle. There appears no real pace angle in the race which can allow Johnson to take the race by the scruff of the neck with this prominent racer and will be tough to pass here in my eyes.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.25 Warwick - 2pts win Reginaldinho @ 4/1 (VC) This is a horse that I've watched quite closely recently and looks every bit a chaser (even for a horse who raced on the flat) both in size and on his running efforts to date. He showed a sound level of form behind some decent types in novice/maiden hurdles and being a fairly large horse, will have needed his comeback run this season. I tipped him up on his next start and he travelled fairly well but failed to deliver any sort of run when asked. He ultimately looks fairly slow which will suit him now facing fences, and also appeared a victim of the out-of-form Venetia Williams yard. Ran a decent fourth to a subsequent two-time winner last time out on ground a little too soft possibly so the return to good to soft conditions looks likely to suit today. The yard are flying so much higher than they were in the early months of the season and now going chasing with the stable on fire, bodes really well for this horse. Been wanting him to run when Williams' horses were going better and here is the chance. The yard have also won 2 from the last 6 runnings of this race and a big run looks on the cards.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 6.05 Kempton - 3pts win Blackmore @ 9/2 (VC) Only horse that interests me enough at Kempton this evening and I really feel this one is going to go very well. This horse looked a nice stayer in late 2010/early 2011, especially on polytrack, and won for the third time in four starts last March off the same mark he runs off today (68). Followed that up with a super 2nd off 74 on turf next time - going down by 3/4l, so he looks poised to strike back off this mark. A period in the wilderness followed but I'm putting that down to the form of Julia Feilden's horses - who really struggled after the early part of summer and continued to do so until very recently. Things have shaped like they are getting a bit better with Spirit Of Sharjah running very well in Dubai, Sail Home winning well two days ago, and Blackmore bouncing back with a 2nd at Southwell. The 2nd at Southwell was a very sound effort as he had the task of beating a horse who had won by 7l on his previous start, under just a 6lb penalty, and ran well to be beaten 2 1/2l with the reopposing First Rock (won next time out) back in 3rd. That horse seems happiest on the fibresand and I think my selection prefers the polytrack so I anticipate that form will be confirmed. Luke Morris takes the ride tonight - an obvious positive, and increases hope of a big run. Of the others, Unex Picasso is a threat but he needs to prove he stays, and the race he won at Southwell wasn't brilliant. Likewise, Steady Gaze won a poorer race than this recently (albeit very well) and struggles to put two good runs together, and Sunset Place looks to flatter to deceive to me. Looked at his races and he tends to travel well. Has run in some decent races and probably stays this far, but his strike rate isn't very good and often doesn't find as much as anticipated so is worth taking on. Couldn't rule out a couple of others but I'm really quite confident about the chances of my selection here and hopefully he'll bounce back with a win.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Not falling into the Dubai trap today! #graveyard I do really fancy the chances of those four today, though, which is usually the kiss of death.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread The benefits of early prices once more. Fabalu 6's from 10's Inga Bird 3's from 5's Hopefully the market's right.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Inga Bird won gamely. Reginaldinho was booked for 2nd when falling at the last and Fabalu was disappointing. Thought Maguire gave him a negative ride. Never looked for a stride and just wasn't really very positive. Not that is made a huge difference in all probability.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread +11pts over the sticks today. Blackmore 7/2 from 9/2. Hopefully will win.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread No excuses but another 2nd. Had he won, my flat P/L would have been exactly 0pts (+70pts since the jumps season started). Shame, but can't grumble on a +8pts day.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.20 Lingfield - 2pts win Dorothy's Dancing @ 7/1 (Bet365) Gary Moore's horse was in cracking form last year when rattling up two successive c&d victories before backing that up with subsequent good efforts at Kempton and Windsor. Soft ground caught her out at Sandown before running a really good race back to the all-weather after a break at Kempton. She was weak in the market on this occasion and pulled extremely hard through the contest. It looked as if she'd have no chance having done so, but was in the driving seat for much of the straight before emptying close to home and somehow finishing out of the frame. With her fitness improved for her next start she ran pretty well at Wolverhampton having come wide. However, I don't think 5f around there suits as much as the other a/w venues and Lingfield appears where she's most at home. Suffered from a slow pace last time here when not being able to get involve but there are a couple of pace angles in this race so she should get a bit more to run at. 7/1 looks very fair indeed.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.40 Huntingdon - 3pts win Saves Time @ 100/30 (PP) This horse hasn't exactly blown anything out of the water with his efforts to date, but has shown enough to suggest that now handicapping, he can prove a threat at the right level. He's been sent off at big prices throughout his three-start career and finished midfield in two good novice races first time up. Shaped as if wanting further on his debut before meeting some nice types at Lingfield next time - Mister Dillon, Grab The Glory, to name two. Managed to finish 2nd back at 2 miles last time but had no chance of beating the now 145 rated animal Peckhamecho - and was comfortably beaten. However, even the strugglers have come out and franked with form with a couple of wins from in behind and more good runs. This is encouraging now this one goes handicapping off 102 at a much more reasonable level. The fact AP McCoy takes the ride for the first time today suggests a good run looks on the cards, and the favourite of this race couldn't win a relatively weak race last time.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Another second. Argh. Worst position in racing :lol

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.10 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Silver Wind @ 11/2 (Bet365) There were no obvious excuses for his poor run at Lingfield last time, but I can forgive this typically consistent horse for one bad run. Was caught a little wide but was under pressure with 3f to race on that occasion so it clearly wasn't himself. He's won off much higher marks in the past and prior to that Lingfield run, had been in good form. He failed to put in a decent performance in quite a long time - including several good runs at this track - one of which he won by 2l off 5lbs lower. Was only beaten 1/2l by a thriving horse next time out and a slow start cost him in a better race subsequently. Chased home an in-form horse next time before a good 1/2l 4th at Lingfield on his penultimate start. I think this horse goes better at Wolverhampton and is pretty well drawn today. 41565932161242 is his record at the track compared to 907649 at Lingfield. Alan McCabe's horses are running okay and I think this is a weaker race than what he typically contests marginally.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.40 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Boy The Bell @ 11/1 (Bet365) Ollie Pears' last two runners have run with credit and his runner here is edging down the handicap, whilst remaining in half-decent form on the fibresand at Southwell. Has been running pretty well in claimers but he looks capable in handicaps, and ran okay off 67 last time out. Was 2nd off 71 in a Southwell handicap in October and hasn't lost his way all that much. He's dropped again to 65 and Shane B Kelly takes off 5lbs (had Franny Norton on board recently) so is essentially 7lbs lower than his most recent run with a capable claimer on board. He's won here before and the race he was a 5 3/4l 7th last time out was better than this and has worked out fairly well. This looks weak and it seems likely that a big run is on the cards at a nice price.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 7.10 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Crunched @ 7/1 (VC) I don't really understand the price of this horse being so big, for all this is a competitive staying event. Tim Pitt's horses are running really well at the moment and this horse seemed to relish the step up to 2 miles last time out in a claimer. He had a really stiff task against Exemplary at the weights (level), given he's rated 11lbs inferior to that horse. Was less than 2 lengths behind at the finish, though, and there was a country mile back to the third. He's always shaped as if a trip would suit and I think he's potentially well-handicapped off this mark. Rosewood Lady narrowly defeated my selection's conqueror but received over a stone so on collateral form, I think Pitt's charge has a huge chance here. The visor, which seemingly helped last time, is retained, and he looks to have a strong chance.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Disappointing day. Couple of places. Roll on tomorrow. Can't wait. Although I anticipate several hours staring at racecards tonight!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Just a bump for today.

Argento Chase' date=' Cheltenham - [b']2.5pts e/w Time For Rupert @ 11/2 (PP) - 1/5 odds Personally I think Time For Rupert will run into a place at the least on Saturday and with slight doubts over Grands Crus' participation (for what it's worth I think he will run), the 11/2 looks a pretty sound each-way bet to me on a horse with no question marks hovering over him. I think 11/2 will look a good price should Pipe's runner not go so is worth a large but hopefully, relatively safe bet. This is a big day for Webber's horse, who needs to prove his Gold Cup credentials after a morale-draining defeat at Haydock, but is still a very classy animal and relishes the course at Cheltenham. Put in a good effort in the Charlie Hall considering he didn't look particularly fit that day behind Weird Al, and the fact that horse ran so well behind Kauto Star and Long Run at Haydock offers hope for Rupert, even though he was further behind on that occasion. His jumping was a bit lethargic up the straight and he probably shouldn't have been beaten as far as he was. Either way, he was pitched in behind the very highest-class horses and even though his jumping is very good, Kauto's was magnificent. Obviously the front two there battled it out again at Kempton in the King George and the race on Saturday isn't anywhere near as strong. I know Grands Crus will be tough to beat and he was impressive last time out, but he is yet to be tested against anything absolutely top-class yet. I rate Bobs Worth but he jumped a bit poorly at Kempton and although blatantly high-class, I don't think he's top-class, and the same applies to Silviniaco Conti. Rupert will enjoy racing against first, and second season chasers again I think as his main dangers (Diamond Harry 3rd season but still relatively new to the game) and I think he can reverse Haydock form with that one back at Cheltenham. I'm not convinced Captain Chris will get home so I think the fact Rupert is likely to run his race, gives him a top chance of being there or there abouts. His record at Cheltenham is excellent (122115) with no bad runs - seconds to Tidal Bay and Big Bucks over hurdles, and wasn't right when running a gallant race under the circumstances in last year's RSA. He relishes the test here and stays the trip strongly. Jumps well and his confidence booster last time was pretty straight-forward, even though the winning distance wasn't huge. Jumped well, O'Regan was very pleased with his effort up the straight, and this horse only really does enough. was only nudged out and it was a good performance from a horse who won't do too much on the bridle. The conditions are absolutely spot on for him and he will have to win this to have any real hope of lifting the Gold Cup in March. It still remains unlikely, but he has every chance of running respectively in the contest and that means he has a really sound chance of at the very least making the frame here. If he doesn't it would be a major disappointment and I think his proven jumping, stamina, and enjoyment of the track will make things difficult for the market leaders.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.30 Cheltenham - 3pts win Royale's Charter @ 9/1 (Boyles) Posted this last week:

1.00 Ascot - 5pts win Royale's Charter @ 7/2 (PP) Don't quite believe I'm doing this in a very competitive handicap chase with horses in form but I think Nick Williams' runner is potentially thrown in off his opening handicap mark of 124 over fences. I'm going with my gut instinct on this one, which perhaps will backfire, especially with an unknown quantity coming over from France since joining Nicky Henderson. However, that one is likely short because of his connections, and I feel that Royale's Charter will prove to be better than a 124-rated animal over fences. This horse has been extremely consistent over hurdles - after finishing 2nd on his only start in a 'bumper'. He was never out of the first four in his first seven starts over timber - including in some decent novice events. However, he probably just lacked the gears to prove a real success over the smaller obstacles as he was a bit one-paced and vulnerable at the finish. He always looked like a chaser and the fact he's related to chasers - including his dam, who was an out-and-out specialist over fences, suggested his future always lied over the bigger obstacles. He did, however, get his head in front rather fortuitously over hurdles when benefiting from a faller when scoring at Newton Abbot - beating a horse 16l who won twice since and is now rated 111. He gamely backed this up with a more deserved victory when pulling clear with Kings Counsel at Market Rasen. He won by a length despite a mistake at the last, and his rival on that occasion confirmed his form with two good runs subsequently to be rated 12lbs higher than when he went down to Royale's Charter. My selection has only risen 13lbs since that day, and that's what his hurdling mark is. However, this doesn't factor in his improvement over fences which looks assured. He goes to war off what would be a fair mark over hurdles, over fences, where he appears a more exciting prospect. His form in his chase career so far points towards being significantly better over the larger obstacles in my opinion. He signed off his hurdle career, for now, with a very sound 5th in a novice event trying to give plenty of weight to good horses such as Molotof. He finished a sound 5th having been outpaced over 2 miles and staying on again. His two starts over fences have been in very stiff company, which has allowed him to prove he's a threat at the right level, without damaging his handicap mark. At Hereford he chased home the 140+ rated Kumbeshwar - giving him 7lbs, on his chasing debut. An impossible task. However, he wasn't given a tough time and the way he finished his race off was highly encouraging, closing down the eased-down winner to an 8l defeat. He jumped soundly and the progressive All For Free was 10l further back. It was an even tougher scenario next time at Taunton when behind the 160ish rated Menorah. Again he finished his race off nicely but obviously had no chance off level weights seen as my selection is rated nearly 40lbs lower in the handicap. However, again he jumped quite well, and pulled away quite nicely under a hand ride from today's reopposing Suburban Bay. He's jumped like a chaser so far and the trip and track will be absolutely fine today. I think going handicapping over fences off the same handicap mark that he runs off over hurdles sees him very well treated. He's bred to be a better chaser and his runs have suggested that also. He's clearly in form, will find it far easier than his novice assignments, and could be too well-handicapped for these. Softish ground is no concern and he has a nice racing weight. Nick Williams has had 2 winners and 2 places from his last 8 runners so the yard are going fine, so everything points to a huge run from this one.

Unfortunately he came down on this occasion. Didn't jump quite as well as anticipated and dropped back towards the rear, but was still on the bridle when unshipping James Reveley. This is no easier but he might enjoy the course and the longer trip should mean he isn't outpaced during the race. His dam won here over the Gold Cup course so he should stay and if getting round fine, I remain that he's well handicapped. Noel Fehily hops back on board today (ridden once behind Menorah) which is no bad thing at all seen as I really rate him as a rider. He's also 4-10 for the yard, which boosts hope for this one. There are plenty in there with chances but I think this horse will give me a win sooner rather than later and hopefully it will come today.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.50 Doncaster - 2pts win Wymott @ 18/1 (Hills) Posted this before his Sandown run:

3.10 Sandown - 1.5pts e/w Wymott @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) Donald McCain's string are in good form at the moment and I think this represents a good chance to put Wymott back on the racing map. A very progressive horse over hurdles and fences, this fella has won 6 out of his 13 career starts and looked a staying chaser to follow prior to the Cheltenham festival last year. An injury prevented him from performing in the RSA and that run can safely be ignored. He did prove he was still a classy animal when returning in the Hennessy and ran a cracker to be 6th of 18 on that occasion. With natural improvement for the run, he was a well-fancied 2/1 favourite on bottomless ground at Haydock last time out. However, he was ridden with restraint - something which doesn't seem to bring out the best in his qualities. He's more of a galloper and he had little chance picking up under those tough conditions. I expect him to bounce back here under a more positive ride and a repeat of his Hennessy run will see him go close here.

Even though he was well held in the end, he shaped with so much more promise on this occasion. After a slow jump at the second, he jumped most of his fences pretty well. A couple of errors down the back on the final circuit cost him a little bit of momentum also, but it was a decent effort. He travelled well on the whole and looked a big threat. However, he, and other prominent racer The Knoxs fell in a hole, and those outpaced came past them late on. Only the third-placed horse could keep going at any sort of pace so it seems that they went a yard too quick in front. Sandown wouldn't be this horse's ideal track either and a course like Doncaster should be more up his street. He does still have his quirks, though, with his high head-carriage, and he can jump left and/or right during his races. The blinkers are reached for today which could be the making of him should he react positively. He does have a bit of a mind of his own seemingly, but he's a talented horse and if given a positive ride today he can go well at a fancy price. The fact Brian Harding is 0-40 at the track is a concern, but hopefully there's nothing in that statistic. Whilst on the topic of statistics, no horse has won with more than 11-2 on their back in this race in the last eight runnings, and that is the exact weight that my selection carries today. Strictly speaking, that would rule many out of the race. However, the race attracts higher-quality horses nowadays, but is still worth a mention. Of those carrying a relatively low-weight, he's fairly high up in the betting. It's a bit of a gamble with this tricky customer, but he's no forlorn hope here.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Sorry about the order! 2.05 Cheltenham - 2pts win Poquelin @ 8/1 (Hills) Classy horse, and one of three entries in the race for Paul Nicholls. It's always difficult to assess different horses for the same trainer, and even though Aerial would be the yard's main fancy in all probability, the fact Harry Derham is on board my selection isn't really a concern, because it would be a very difficult task to carry the weight he'd have with Walsh on board, in this race. 12125141U is Poquelin's form around Cheltenham at 2m4f/2m5f. This is seriously good, considering many of these runs have come in top races. He's a really talented animal and the 7lbs claimed by the capable Derham makes him very interesting here. He won the 'Vote AP Gold Cup' in December 2010 off 163 with Ian Popham taking 5lbs off, before a respectable 4th in the Ryanair, for all he was expected to win by many. Bounced back to win a handicap off 170 (even though this was a small field of 150-rated horses). Had excuses when tried over 3 miles in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby this season. It was his first run of the campaign and he simply didn't see it out well enough. Was keen enough and ended up well beaten. Showed more in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, even though he didn't complete. He wouldn't have won or anything, but was running okay when coming down at 3 out - sent off a 25/1 shot. He was trying to give heaps of weight away and in the end, none of the first five home carried more than 10-3. A bit more than the 11-5 on top of Nicholls' runner! Still has to carry the same weight here, but this isn't as fiercely competitive - especially down with the featherweights - and they won't go as testing a gallop I would presume. He's carried weight to success before and I think he's capable of doing it again. Nicholls' horses are going well (as usual) and I don't like many of these horses. Aerial and Chance Du Roy are the only two I really fear (couldn't rule out everything else but personally not keen), so I anticipate a big run from the 9 year old.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Let's hope the market and Paul Nicholls is wrong! Royale's Charter 16s from 9s, Wymott 22s from 18s, and Nicholls has doubts over Poquelin's wellbeing.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Just don't believe it. Royale's Charter close enough today and jumping pretty well. Hampered and comes down with 4 or 5 to jump. Gutted. Again. Two weeks in a row!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Frighteningly like last week. Faller and a 2nd. Great run from Poquelin, though.