Rupert's Racing Thread

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread :sad

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3rd this time. Missed break. Wide. Short of room late on.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Last 8 flat horses have placed. Maybe just start going for the placepot?

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread And final selection out to 18s from 9s...

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Knew from before the race she'd miss the break and be tailed off from the start. So, so predictable. Utter shite once more. Can't be arsed.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1st 12/1 3rd 11/1 2nd 6/1 3rd 15/2 2nd 13/2 2nd 20/1 3rd 6/1 2nd 9/1 Unplaced 20/1 from 9/1 The reason for a less intense spell. Will put up some BBOTDs regularly but will only post in here on the odd occasion up to Cheltenham, usually good racing (so Saturday next maybe). Not much worse than losing lots and lots even when your horses are running well. Doing my head in every single day at the moment so will be in here sparingly for a little while.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread why don't you just start backing a few EW until you get yourself back in the groove? If you had done so over the last few days you wouldn't have lost anything and would have made small profits with every horse

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread I know, but I can't win at the moment! I was going each-way and they weren't doing much. Monte advised me to scrap each-way bets, and as I value his opinions highly, I agreed with him. Obviously it's no surprise to see them all fail narrowly! If I started going e/w again, they'd finish 4th. Just the way it feels at the moment and it's horrible when you're picking horses which clearly aren't bad picks but still losing bundles. Sick to the back teeth of horses just failing and I'll end up breaking a foot if it keeps happening :lol The thread is quickly turning into a farce, and for all I've said I'd keep plugging away, a step back is probably necessary. As I said, I'm not stopping altogether, but certainly won't be in here every day for a little while.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Keen on this one so in he goes...only bet tomorrow. Really hope Newbury's on but the odds are drifting... 5.10 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Court Applause @ 8/1 (Hills) Similar to my winning selection two days ago, I think this William Muir-trained maiden is very interesting dropped in trip, this time to the minimum 5f. Hasn't won in 11 starts so far, but has been consistent on the whole, and recent efforts in handicaps have been encouraging. On both occasions, the horse took a bit of a hold, and ended up finding his effort petering out close home. These factors suggest to me that the 5f here could really suit. He's by a speedy horse in Royal Applause, and showed plenty of early dash to chase the leader from a wide draw at Lingfield last time (still taking a tug). Hasn't been beaten that far on both recent occasions and has a 2nd to his name from one run at Wolverhampton previously. He definitely looks worth chancing over this trip and it appears to me that there is a serious amount of pace in this race. Several speedballs go to post and stall 8 might not be such a potential disadvantage here as hopefully it will force George Baker's hand to drop him in behind the leaders, to come through later on. That may well suit perfectly, whereas a possible speed dual will not. He's been held up on just about every start before last time out, and reverting to those tactics will see a big run in my eyes.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Back in the thread, back in 2nd position. Couldn't make it up!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.40 Lingfield - 2pts win Clear Praise @ 10/1 (Hills) Simon Dow's charge is hardly setting the world alight of late, but is a past winner off 3lbs lower, and has run well enough off marks around 78 to suggest he can go well off his current mark today. All of his wins have come on the polytrack, and although two of his three victories have come over 6f, a strongly run 5f might play to his strengths considering he's often a hard puller. He shaped with promise on his return from a break in December when a sound 6th at Kempton (1/2l behind Taajub) from a wide draw. Pulled too hard over 7f next time at Lingfield in a nice race when beaten 4 1/2l, and again was a touch keen last time back over 6f when a poor 10th of 12. However, all of the front 5 were prominent throughout, and those towards the rear never got a blow in. I'm happy to forgive him that effort and he's dropped 2lbs for it. Hayley Turner is back on board today (2 wins under her) and this looks set up for a closer. There is a serious amount of pace in the race and Turner can drop this one in from stall 6 and try get him settled for a late run.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.45 Lingfield - 2pts win Novellen Lad @ 14/1 (Bet365) Knew this horse had races in him after winning off 2lbs lower in a good race on the turf earlier in the season (value for more than winning margin), and he's come good since switched to the polytrack. The form of the Willie Musson yard seemed to hold him back for much of the season, but his mark edged down, and I still think there's a bit of scope off this mark. He won off 85 two starts back having pulled hard over 7f, so 88 over 6f might be within his compass. He got a bit outpaced last time before staying on, and wasn't far behind a couple of these on that occasion, yet is still an outsider here. The yard are in the best form they've been in for quite a while now (last 6 runners have been in first four) and it may be that this horse can pull out a bit more now.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.45 Musselburgh - 3pts win Koup De Kanon @ 8/1 (Bet365) Competitive hurdle race, but I think Donald McCain's entry has a top chance here of regaining the winning thread. Made a mockery of his handicap mark after a break in October, and won very easily in a novice race at Catterick two starts ago. That form looks sound enough, and he only got tired up the run-in at Cheltenham last time in a hot handicap race. Shaped as if this mark would not be beyond him returning to an easier track, and shouldn't be stopping so quickly. Can get a nice lead into the race, and I think can continue his progression with a win here.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.30 Kempton - 3pts win Lastkingofscotland @ 9/2 (Bet365) This horse represents an in-form Conor Dore, and still is off a good mark on past form. He won off 4lbs lower a few starts ago when better value than the 1l winning margin (had to be switched sharply to far rail at Wolverhampton), and on that, can win off this higher mark. Won a claimer before trying to make all again in a handicap when 3rd next time, but he's a horse who seems best when coming off the pace, and he was a staying on 3rd last time over 6f behind a well-treated animal in the week. He's well drawn here, and an even gallop will see him finish well, and I think he'll take the beating.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.10 Kempton - 5pts win Hawawi @ 100/30 (Hills) Handicap debut looks off a very fair mark of 77 to me, and he's shown plenty in three starts to date. Ran a cracking 3rd to Sea Moon on debut at Yarmouth with an 87-rated horse in 2nd. Faded over 1m4f at Kempton after a break before being taken by James Tate, and again ran really well after ab absence last time over 1m3f here. He travelled very sweetly and Jimmy Fortune wasn't at his strongest in the saddle. Still, the race was won by a very nice type (hacked up in handicap yesterday) and even though he has a high head carriage, ran well to be 2nd, and they were all quite spread out in behind. Should be race fit now, and down in trip shouldn't be a problem. I think he'll win this, and isn't a bad price either.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3rd. Balls.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Okay, well Lastkingofscotland went back to trying to make all...and succeeded convincingly!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Back to a 2nd @ 14/1.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1 winner, 11 places, 1 unplaced from last 13 bets in here :lol Good job that one went in at Kempton...

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 7.20 Wolverhampton - 4pts win Redclue @ 11/2 (PP) Marco Botti has a 19% strike rate at Wolverhampton and his horse is relatively unexposed having had just two starts so far. Stayed on having initially been outpaced on debut, and had a stiff task giving weight away in a claimer last time. This race looks weak even for a claiming race and the favourite has to prove herself at the trip and has been off the track for a long time. Likewise, the 2nd fav hasn't convinced over this far, and makes my selection the solid one in here.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Bookies, give me an early price on Theatre Guide!!! around 15/2 on the exchanges and if it's that price in the morning, I'll be very happy.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread FFS, even when 2/5 to go ahead it still doesn't.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.40 Southwell - 2pts win Itsthursdayalready @ 13/2 (Skybet) I find this horse extremely interesting for a Mark Brisbourne yard who just appear to be turning a corner with regards to the wellbeing of the yard. This is a weak race, and although this horse doesn't win very often, 2 of his 3 career successes have come here, and he seems to enjoy the fibresand surface. He's 2lb lower than his last winning mark (a 4l success last May) and has only raced at Southwell once since (straight after when a decent 3rd off 60). Runs off 53 today and Shane Kelly is back on board for the first time in a while, under whom the horse registered both successes over c&d. Failed to really land a blow, since, though, although he ended the summer with a half-decent run, and I thought his recent reappearance run at Wolverhampton was not a bad one under an amateur pilot. He finished midfield and with that run under his belt, can go very close today back at the scene of his two all-weather victories. This is a poor race and he must have a fair shout today.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.50 Southwell - 3pts win Blackmore @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes) Posted this before last time out:

6.05 Kempton - 3pts win Blackmore @ 9/2 (VC) Only horse that interests me enough at Kempton this evening and I really feel this one is going to go very well. This horse looked a nice stayer in late 2010/early 2011, especially on polytrack, and won for the third time in four starts last March off the same mark he runs off today (68). Followed that up with a super 2nd off 74 on turf next time - going down by 3/4l, so he looks poised to strike back off this mark. A period in the wilderness followed but I'm putting that down to the form of Julia Feilden's horses - who really struggled after the early part of summer and continued to do so until very recently. Things have shaped like they are getting a bit better with Spirit Of Sharjah running very well in Dubai, Sail Home winning well two days ago, and Blackmore bouncing back with a 2nd at Southwell. The 2nd at Southwell was a very sound effort as he had the task of beating a horse who had won by 7l on his previous start, under just a 6lb penalty, and ran well to be beaten 2 1/2l with the reopposing First Rock (won next time out) back in 3rd. That horse seems happiest on the fibresand and I think my selection prefers the polytrack so I anticipate that form will be confirmed. Luke Morris takes the ride tonight - an obvious positive, and increases hope of a big run. Of the others, Unex Picasso is a threat but he needs to prove he stays, and the race he won at Southwell wasn't brilliant. Likewise, Steady Gaze won a poorer race than this recently (albeit very well) and struggles to put two good runs together, and Sunset Place looks to flatter to deceive to me. Looked at his races and he tends to travel well. Has run in some decent races and probably stays this far, but his strike rate isn't very good and often doesn't find as much as anticipated so is worth taking on. Couldn't rule out a couple of others but I'm really quite confident about the chances of my selection here and hopefully he'll bounce back with a win.

Again he just found one too good but looks sure to be winning very soon. The winner won his previous race by over 6 lengths so is clearly thriving at the moment and my selection just couldn't compete. However, hopefully there isn't anything obviously well-handicapped in here, and he can take this. The yard are in top form, and he has a sound chance of reversing recent form with Storm Hawk with a 5lb swing in the weights. Captain Bellamy is climbing the weights for beating not a huge amount in my opinion, and may struggle to win off this mark against a couple of decent individuals for the grade. Big chance here.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.20 Ayr - 2pts win North Brook @ 12/1 (Bet365) Weak race, and for all the favourite should be where he is in the market, is probably underpriced - which shows how this race contains a lot of horses out of form. However, the way this horse was well-backed on his reappearance run recently (12s into 6s), gives me hope that he's showing something at home, and just needed that effort. Definitely showed a modicum of ability in his early hurdling days, and was running a sound race here when unseating 3 out last March. Was probably running off a mark slightly too high in a couple of efforts before finding a 2m6f trip too far on his last start of 2011. Didn't run too badly last time to say it was his first run in quite a long time, and should be capable of improving on that by quite a lot now. His mark has come down a realistic level of 90, and soft ground looks no issue. Can go well in a weak race.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Travelled well and looked a threat turning in. Perhaps one for 2 miles. Wouldn't have picked the winner ever I don't think. Hacked up as well.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Jeez.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Can't knock the consistency on the flat! 1st 12/1 3rd 11/1 2nd 6/1 3rd 15/2 2nd 13/2 2nd 20/1 3rd 6/1 2nd 9/1 Unplaced 20/1 from 9/1 2nd 8/1 3rd 10/1 2nd 14/1 Unplaced 1st 9/2 Unplaced 2nd 13/2 2nd 11/2 Can knock the profit. Another two seconds today.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.20 Southwell - 4pts win Nataani @ 15/2 (VC) Posted this last time:

2.40 Hereford - 2pt win Nataani @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) It's going to be quite tough for Jo Davis' lightly raced gelding to be pitched straight into a competitive handicap on his chasing debut, but he's certainly built for the job, and can go very well if jumping successfully on his first try. Has some point form, including having to pull up when hampered having every chance behind the smart Tricky Trickster. Was 2nd on his next start in that code before registering a 5l success at Tramore back in late 2008. Jo Davis picked him up and he returned to put in a fine reappearance effort to be a 4th in a novice hurdle race after the best part of three years off the track. He ran another good race - finishing in the same position - at Bangor. Beaten little over 6l in a nice race. The winner is an above average 126 rated horse with the scope to improve again, and the 2nd is now rated 130 after only going down by a nose in a tussle with a hotshot at Cheltenham last time. My selection heads chasing off a mark of just 116 after finishing 2nd last time. He isn't blessed with great pace which means a spin over fences may just be what he wants. He kept on that day and was beaten less than 2l so he's been consistent this season. There's no problems with regards to trip it seems and his bumper win came on testing ground so that should be up his street also. There are lots of dangers in here, and he'll have to jump well from the start. But he's been shaping like a chaser, and can go well with his pointing experience. 20/1 is too big either way, and therefore is worth a smallish bet.

Was very well backed on this occasion to go off at 7/1 and looked like he was going to make a big impact for much of the contest. He jumped brilliantly on his first try over fences under rules, and only faded late on to be beaten 28l in 4th. Been dropped 8lbs for that, and I think that's very generous considering it was a better effort than the margin suggests. He had to give plenty of weight away in testing conditions, and the slightly shorter trip on better ground today, off a more favourable weight, can see him go very well indeed. This isn't a bad race, but Timmy Murphy goes to Southwell for just the one ride, and I'm confident of a bold showing.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.30 Lingfield - 3pts win Edgeworth @ 7/1 (Hills) This horse has a fine record over c&d, winning 5 times, and looks poised to strike once more now back under these conditions off a fair mark with Josh Baudins taking off 7lbs. He won 4 out of his 7 tries here in 2011 and that included a success off 2lbs lower without a claiming jockey on board, so he looks pretty well treated. Didn't do quite so well on turf in the summer, but his polytrack record is much more encouraging, and a big run looks in the offing here. There should be some pace on, and the way he ran last time at Kempton was promising. After an absence, he travelled very well, and despite hanging off the bend to swing in very wide, he kept on quite well up the straight when hanging back in and shaped as if he was in good form within himself. Will relish the return to Lingfield today, and should go close if building on that. That was a pretty decent race and he certainly wasn't stopping at the finish, even without maximum effort applied from the saddle (awkward ride/race already lost). Should be running on well at the finish.