Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.05 Sandown - 3pts win Hold Fast @ 5/1 (Hills) Very keen on Paul Nicholls' charge for this 2m handicap chase. Despite being beaten 7l by Rileyev at Newbury last time out, he has a big swing at the weights and fitness on his side this time. He was giving Venetia Williams' progressive horse a load of weight on that occasion, but put in a very brave effort to be in contention at the last before backing out of it up the run-in. This horse is very unexposed but has won 3 out of 8 starts and is clearly a talented individual. His record fresh isn't great which adds to the credit of his run at Newbury and I think he'll have come on plenty for it. Prior to that, he won two hurdles races before edging out Bellvano in a novice chase last January. My selection essentially ran to 135 or so on that occasion and I certainly feel that a 2lb higher mark than that is well within his grasp having had further experience over fences. He unseated rider in a hot contest next time before his return to action at Newbury. This is the quickest turnaround he's had recently and it should see him in better light. Obviously there are more threats in the race but I'm not sure All For Free has the class for this. I could go through more but plenty have a squeak but I'm really taken by this individual at a nice price in my opinion. He's open to plenty of progress and I think he'll certainly be better than a 137 horse by the end of the season.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.10 Sandown - 1.5pts e/w Wymott @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) Donald McCain's string are in good form at the moment and I think this represents a good chance to put Wymott back on the racing map. A very progressive horse over hurdles and fences, this fella has won 6 out of his 13 career starts and looked a staying chaser to follow prior to the Cheltenham festival last year. An injury prevented him from performing in the RSA and that run can safely be ignored. He did prove he was still a classy animal when returning in the Hennessy and ran a cracker to be 6th of 18 on that occasion. With natural improvement for the run, he was a well-fancied 2/1 favourite on bottomless ground at Haydock last time out. However, he was ridden with restraint - something which doesn't seem to bring out the best in his qualities. He's more of a galloper and he had little chance picking up under those tough conditions. I expect him to bounce back here under a more positive ride and a repeat of his Hennessy run will see him go close here.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread So many of my horses are drifting and then running badly! Hopefully Hold Fast (well backed) will make amends.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread I like this horse.

[Trotter]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Nice winner Rupert .........never in doubt !

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Silly ride. I suppose that's what happens with claiming jockeys. +7pts on the day. Meh. Not bad but hoped for more.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Can't believe I missed this horse: 3.45 Sandown - 2pts win Havingotascoobydoo @ 5/1 (Bet365) I really took to this horse over hurdles after he registered impressive successes over 2m4f. He's got to prove himself off this mark after only managing a 5th on his most recent hurdles start but has been progressive since sent over fences to be rated 137 over the large obstacles. He goes off 132 now back over the smaller obstacles and even though he's back in trip, I think a well-run 2 miles will suit him. He's got a good turn of foot and I think he'll be arriving on the scene to deliver a punishing challenge. Big chance.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Bollocks.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.30 Hereford - 2pts e/w Cruise In Style @ 9/1 (Hills) - 1/4 odds This horse looks good value against the favourite at a nice price of 9/1 as the second-favourite here. The favourite does look very well-in but you can never be sure in horse racing - especially at this low level - and there is a possibility that he will bounce. Even should he win, I expect my selection to finish in the placings. He's improved plenty over this season and although she's still waiting to win a race, has been placed on all starts that she's finished with the tongue-tie and cheekpieces applied. She ran a good second at Hereford - and may have won with a better jump at the last, before meeting a well handicapped animal next time out. Was beaten around 11l but the winner hacked up again next time out with the second-placed horse also winning next time - and was only narrowly ahead of my selection at Uttoxeter. Last time out, Cruise In Style was making some ground, and looking like being involved in some capacity when coming down 3 out. She jumped the flight okay but landed unbalanced and capsized. I think she would have been right there as she was staying on and she seems consistent enough these days. Outside of the favourite, this is a very average race and I think she's well up to beating the rest of them. If the favourite fails to perform, I think she will take all the beating. I'm cursing her now but I think she'll be tough to keep out of the frame regardless.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.30 Hereford - 3pts win Caulfields Venture @ 9/2 (PP) Andy Turnell's charge caught the eye of many at Ascot last time - including me - and I think he will go very close here. He's very unexposed having run just four times (3 under rules) and even though he still has plenty to learn in the jumping department, clearly has ability and he can show that to an even greater extent today. 2nd on his only PTP start, he was bought for £20k and ran a sound fourth on his first start for the yard after a break on his hurdling debut. The winner won again next time, and the second horse won his next two to be rated 128. The 3rd horse had some decent bumper form also so it was a decent race and on that I feel he is capable of winning off a mark of 109. Even though the form didn't really stack up from his next start, the race was a funny affair. My selection was prominent in a slowly-run race but didn't jump well and those held-up came through to fight out the finish. My selection faded but it was obvious the race didn't suit and his errors probably cost him double in this race than they would in some others. Bounced back with that eyecatching effort in a good race at Ascot last time when sent off at 50/1. Again he didn't jump great and was keen up to the three mile trip but made strong headway towards the end of the race going powerfully and looked a threat. However, he didn't find all that much and was beaten into 4th late on. The form is strong enough and the two at the head of affairs look smart. Horses from in behind that day have run well since so I think it was a good effort really. The way he travelled was encouraging and the drop in trip by a couple of furlongs looks sure to help. This easier test should see him finish better, but he is bred to get further than the 2 miles he was initially running over so this distance may prove ideal.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Previously consistent horse + 4pt bet = dire performance.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.40 Taunton - 2pts e/w Native Breeze @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) - 1/5 odds The favourite has an obvious chance but is worth taking on at 2/1 and I think Philip Hobbs' runner will put in a good effort here. The mare has only had three runs to date and each of them have come after a break from the track. This is the first chance she'll be properly race fit and that can give her an advantage after a respectable hurdling debut last time which she's certain to come on from. The form of her bumper runs is decent enough - especially on debut - and came to challenge after 6 months off at Bangor in another race before tiring late on. That's not too concerning given the absence. She was set quite a stiff task on her hurdling debut as she wasn't fluent and had another break to overcome. However, she finished 3rd behind a progressive type rated in the 130s and a horse with half-decent bumper form and a hurdles run under its belt in 2nd. My selection should come on plenty for that run and looks a sound each-way alternative here.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.40 Taunton - 5pts win Jump City @ 7/4 (Hills) I am very confident that Paul Nicholls' charge can upset the favourite here dropping back down in trip after not getting home on his last two starts. He ran two very good races over this trip behind the useful Smad Place, and then beating a subsequent winner on his return. Travelled quite well in hot company the last twice over 4 or 5 furlongs further and faded out of it. Steps back down in trip today and there isn't anything to split these rivals on ratings really. I think the smaller field will suit my selection more and Darlan's form has little substance for all he's looked a nice horse. I'm sure he is, but the form of his cruising victory at Kempton hasn't really been franked, and he only scrambled home last time in a race which hasn't worked out. He'll have to come off the bridle today I'm sure of it and I think he'll struggle to get past Walsh's ride.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.10 Taunton - 3pts win Carrickmines @ 7/2 (Hills) Dr Richard Newland's horses are in great form, and one of those horses is the 10yo Carrickmines in this race. He's bounced right back to form on his last three starts, unseating when going well, before gaining compensation over today's c&d by 4l off an 11lb lower mark. He stays this trip really well and showed that when keeping on powerfully into 3rd late on at Ascot last time in a nice race behind two smart individuals who seem ahead of their mark. My selection suggested there would be more to come off his current mark if pitched back into more suitable company - and this race looks a little easier than that Ascot race. He's 1-1 at the track and he sets the standard here.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.40 Taunton - 3pts win Dancing Mist @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes) This horse is very well handicapped on previous form and shaped as if still retaining plenty of previous ability despite being well-beaten into 3rd on his return to the track. He was pitched into a 3m2f race on soft ground on his first start for 18 months and it was a respectable effort behind a decent type. Should come on bundles for that and if he retains his ability he will take some beating today. 3 starts ago he won a novice rated 114 by 18 lengths. This doesn't look as strong as the race he ran in his return and he will take all the beating.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.25 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Lastkingofscotland @ 5/1 (PP) Conor Dore's animal has been knocking at the door lately and has won off 9lbs higher in the past. He's returned to form this winter and ran two good races here recently. A repeat of that would see him go very well indeed from a good draw. Never had a good run through at Lingfield 2 starts ago and probably didn't enjoy the way the race panned out last time. Should get something to run off today in not the strongest race and must go close.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

I appreciate anyone commenting constructively, so thanks. It doesn't help when you're so desperate to succeed and not be embarrassed considering this is often what I get up for in a morning (afternoon). I probably take it too seriously but I don't get as much chance to do the things I enjoy since my Dad died - without wanting to sound like I'm on the X Factor. But I guess when you're not doing much and need a vice, I look to this as entertainment which maybe isn't the right way to think if you want to be successful. There probably have been times I've picked horses that maybe weren't as stronger bets as they should be just to give me something to watch on a day. But still, on the whole, I don't think my selections are too bad in my head, and looking back, there's still plenty of them I'd pick again. There probably is a bit of poor discipline involved, but it would help if I could successfully pick winners!

Sorry to hear about your father Rupert, hope your doing ok!! I have never had the ability to be able to start a thread , sift through form and find winners... But from viewing your thread, you do get winners! I think your main problem is selectivity! I think some days you back too many horses, which sometimes means you may need 2 or more winners just to make a small profit.. Just my tuppence, selectivity!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Sorry to hear about your father Rupert, hope your doing ok!! I have never had the ability to be able to start a thread , sift through form and find winners... But from viewing your thread, you do get winners! I think your main problem is selectivity! I think some days you back too many horses, which sometimes means you may need 2 or more winners just to make a small profit.. Just my tuppence, selectivity!

It's a fair comment, but that's certainly not something done on purpose! Ie. Today I thought I'd have 0 selections at Taunton/Wolverhampton, in fact, I often leave Monday alone. I just felt confident on so many horses. I'm the type of person who would hate regretting not putting a winning horse up if I fancied it. I 100% agree that it's a massive part of winning, and I often think I've put too many horses up, but I'm too soft to cut a couple out in fear that those I put up lost and those I didn't won :lol

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

It's a fair comment, but that's certainly not something done on purpose! Ie. Today I thought I'd have 0 selections at Taunton/Wolverhampton, in fact, I often leave Monday alone. I just felt confident on so many horses. I'm the type of person who would hate regretting not putting a winning horse up if I fancied it. I 100% agree that it's a massive part of winning, and I often think I've put too many horses up, but I'm too soft to cut a couple out in fear that those I put up lost and those I didn't won :lol

Even if your maximum bet wins today, your 5 point bet on Jump City, if the others fail, you are still down money! That should not be the case, if your having a max bet, and it wins, you should be up money regardless! Hence, today i personally feel you have backed too many gee-gee's! And i think if you were a bit more patient and selective, you would be showing a plus instead of a minus on your thread!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Even if your maximum bet wins today, your 5 point bet on Jump City, if the others fail, you are still down money! That should not be the case, if your having a max bet, and it wins, you should be up money regardless! Hence, today i personally feel you have backed too many gee-gee's! And i think if you were a bit more patient and selective, you would be showing a plus instead of a minus on your thread!

Not if I selected the wrong ones :lol

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread The big bets continue to flop. Reckon I could max bet a 1/20 shot and it wouldn't win. Fortunately profit assured by Lastkingofscotland winning very well considering he had to switch repeatedly and sharply left up the straight and Carrickmines flying up the run-in to snatch it right on the wire. Needed that sort of finish to go my way! +8.5pts if Dancing Mist loses, +19.75pts if he wins.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread O'Regan not very special on that one. Oh well.

[cpo]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Couple of nice winners today. Very close call with both :ok

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Well done Rupert! Decent day :clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Ta. Profit in both codes since I mentally started afresh so can't complain. Won't be picking out so many very often. It's usually a Saturday thing. Tomorrow looks pretty poor so won't be more than a couple if any I guess. Probably going to sack off the big bets on fairly short prices unless I am super confident now because it's hurting big time when they're not going in. Back to steady method picking that was serving me fairly well when I was at uni. I guess being at home sat in front of ATR makes me want to post something rather than before when it was more sensible. I'm back at uni from around Thursday so hopefully we'll see an upturn :lol

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Ta. Profit in both codes since I mentally started afresh so can't complain. Won't be picking out so many very often. It's usually a Saturday thing. Tomorrow looks pretty poor so won't be more than a couple if any I guess. Probably going to sack off the big bets on fairly short prices unless I am super confident now because it's hurting big time when they're not going in. Back to steady method picking that was serving me fairly well when I was at uni. I guess being at home sat in front of ATR makes me want to post something rather than before when it was more sensible. I'm back at uni from around Thursday so hopefully we'll see an upturn :lol

When you get time, and this might be interesting, could you go back and see your stats on 4 point bets and 5 point bets, just the amount of bets and profit/loss, i think there-in could lie the key Rupert! :beer As you said, when you put on a big bet, they usually dont come up! And every point counts

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

When you get time, and this might be interesting, could you go back and see your stats on 4 point bets and 5 point bets, just the amount of bets and profit/loss, i think there-in could lie the key Rupert! :beer As you said, when you put on a big bet, they usually dont come up! And every point counts

It's catastrophic. I did it a few weeks ago. The strike rate was pathetic!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.40 Leicester - 1pt e/w Raifteiri @ 18/1 (VC) - 1/5 odds I think this horse is a touch overpriced for this pretty weak handicap hurdle. Showed a level of ability in bumpers, but met some decent horses in Ericht and Cheltenian in his first two efforts. Finished midfield in an alright bumper over in Ireland before shaping as if needing it at Fakenham on his return to the track. He's never going to be very good but he at least showed something. And he did that again when going hurdling at Uttoxeter. Was only beaten 9l in 3rd despite having made errors behind a subsequent decent third and a subsequent winner in second. It was a stiff task he was given last time out, upped to 2m4f. He finished a well-held 4th but was trying to give weight to a horse who hacked up again next time and is rated 134. The horse in second hacked up next time also, so he was just pitched into too stiff company. He basically needed to run up to high 120s to get involved at least and he's only rated 102 going handicapping now. He comes back down to 2 miles on a stiffer track which I think will suit this horse and I don't think 18/1 is a fair reflection back in easier company.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.55 Southwell - 2pts win Podgies Boy @ 7/1 (Hills) Richard Fahey's yard are going well and this horse is well handicapped having completed a hat-trick off a mark of 74 in December 2010. He runs off 73 today with 5lbs taken off by Shane B Kelly - an able claimer - and I think he should go well eased in grade. He ran respectably on his return from a long break at Lingfield in November off 77 and remained on that mark when again running okay over a mile at Southwell. That was a better race than this though, I think, and he's been eased in the weights since. Again was pitched into tricky company at Lingfield last time despite running off 75 with 7lbs taken off by Laura Barry. This was a good 0-85 affair won by the bang in form Lockantanks and my selection faded to be beaten just over 3l. This is a 0-75 contest and I think the 7f at Southwell will really suit. The horse clearly still has ability and dropped in the handicap again with Kelly's claim will see this one go well I feel.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Smashed in to 15/2 from 18/1 and ran well for a very long way - jumping great. Faded up the straight though. Perhaps an easy two miles is all he wants.