chuck1160 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Final result: Cuba 0-5 Mexico! Clean sheet for Mexico!:nana Its been a good week for me. Lots of winnings. Total bets: 25 Won: 19 Lost:6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportxtipster Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Cost Rica vs El Salvador pick away +2 AH @ odds 1.75 with >Bet365 +7.5 Mexico - Cuba home -3 AH @ 1.83 with >Bet365 +8.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------- :cheers +15.8 :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Final result: Cuba 0-5 Mexico! Clean sheet for Mexico!:nana Its been a good week for me. Lots of winnings. Total bets: 25 Won: 19 Lost:6 :ok (But ... I have noticed your bets tend to be lower risk ones, so a 'winner' wins less than a 'loser' loses. E.G. For a AH @ 1.33 odds bet, you would need 3 winners for every 1 loser just to break even ;)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuck1160 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June :ok (But ... I have noticed your bets tend to be lower risk ones, so a 'winner' wins less than a 'loser' loses. E.G. For a AH @ 1.33 odds bet, you would need 3 winners for every 1 loser just to break even ;)) Yeah I rather go safe most of time, unless I see very good values. My bets this week average odds were at 1.59. So the odds weren't all that low. Anyway here's hoping for another good week. Cheers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckotheoirish Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Cuba vs MEXICO....Pick Mexico -2AH @ 1.47....Paddy P...stakes 5/10 .....got this price this morning but it quickly disappeared. I didn't see either of these teams 1st matches but I read the match reports and it seems Costa Rica were all over Cuba and were good value for the win.Mexico had a slow start but ended up blowing El Salvador away.Mexico are ranked 27th in the world and are going for their 11th straight win in this tournement against the 62nd ranked Cubans. There were 80,000 at Mexico's opener and a lot of those would have been Mexicans.Tomorrow night there should again be a sizeable crowd of Mexican fans and probably no Cuban fans. I have no team news but I'm happy to take the asian handicap at this price.I think however the value has gone now and the current prices are correct........... 5-0,bet won....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June :ok (But ... I have noticed your bets tend to be lower risk ones, so a 'winner' wins less than a 'loser' loses. E.G. For a AH @ 1.33 odds bet, you would need 3 winners for every 1 loser just to break even ;)) But he seems to have a pretty impressive hit rate, so it's a mute point. Only thing that matters, long-term, is making a profit. Odds you take to get there are irrelevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Napoleon Solo Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June But he seems to have a pretty impressive hit rate, so it's a mute point. Only thing that matters, long-term, is making a profit. Odds you take to get there are irrelevant. I think you mean 'moot' point. Or 'moo' point, as Joey from Friends so eloquently explained! :unsure The point that MPLouis is trying to make is that, with the strike rate he has, if he's betting on odds of 1.33 for each bet to a level stake, he'd only be in profit by 0.33 x his stake, i.e.: Winning bets = 19 x odds of 1.33 (recurring) = 25.33 returns minus 19 original stake = 6.33 points profit. Take away the losing bets and you only have 0.33 points profit over the space of 25 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June I think you mean 'moot' point. Or 'moo' point, as Joey from Friends so eloquently explained! :unsure The point that MPLouis is trying to make is that, with the strike rate he has, if he's betting on odds of 1.33 for each bet to a level stake, he'd only be in profit by 0.33 x his stake, i.e.: Winning bets = 19 x odds of 1.33 (recurring) = 25.33 returns minus 19 original stake = 6.33 points profit. Take away the losing bets and you only have 0.33 points profit over the space of 25 bets. That's the point of playing ''safer'' bets though, to lose less. Therefore, your equations become... moot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June My bets this week average odds were at 1.59. So the odds weren't all that low. So 25 bets, 19 winner, 6 losers, average stake of 1.59 19 x 1.59 = 30 So if you'd bet a £10 level stake on each of your 25 bets, you would have staked £250 and returned roughly £300 = a very respectable 20% profit :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Not really a discussion for this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Jamaica vs Guatemala = Guatemala +2 @ 1.53 bet365 Guatemala hasn't lost a game by more than 2 goals in their last 14 games. Their 3 most recent results are two draws and one defeat 0-2 to Venezuela. They are coming from a good result, a 0-0 with Honduras away. Meanwhile Jamaica have only played 3 games so far this year. Also losing 0-2 to Venezuela and winning 3-2 vs El Salvador and most recently beating Grenada 4-0. 4-0 is a excellent result, but how good are Grenada? They recently lost 2-0 to Panama and also lost against Saint Kits and Nevis and drew with Antigua and Barbuda in their most recent matches. In Jamaica's last 20 games they had only managed to win by more than two goals once prior to their 4-0 over Grenada and it was against Cayman islands. I think Guatemala +2 at those odds is very nice. I think the result will be very tight and could actually end in a draw. :hope Not convinced on that. I think Jamaica will win fairly comfortably, say by 2 or 3 goals. They seem comfortably the better team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garyfinny Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June If anyone is interested in arbs, Honduras HT/FT is 1.8 on Bet 770 and 1.41 to lay on Betfair. The market is called 'WinnerHTFT' on the first site. The logical explanation to me is that the team have to be winning both at HT and FT, but the odds suggest either an error, or the team have to win both halves. As well you have the problem of being palped but even at small stakes there is good money in this. Anyone can clarify this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June If anyone is interested in arbs, Honduras HT/FT is 1.8 on Bet 770 and 1.41 to lay on Betfair. The market is called 'WinnerHTFT' on the first site. The logical explanation to me is that the team have to be winning both at HT and FT, but the odds suggest either an error, or the team have to win both halves. As well you have the problem of being palped but even at small stakes there is good money in this. Anyone can clarify this? Never even heard of that site until you mentioned it! :lol..I see what you're saying and the site isn't really clear but judging by the fact that Honduras are 1.25 to be winning at HT it would suggest it means to win both halfs, which is obviously a different bet entirely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June If anyone is interested in arbs, Honduras HT/FT is 1.8 on Bet 770 and 1.41 to lay on Betfair. The market is called 'WinnerHTFT' on the first site. The logical explanation to me is that the team have to be winning both at HT and FT, but the odds suggest either an error, or the team have to win both halves. As well you have the problem of being palped but even at small stakes there is good money in this. Anyone can clarify this? Looks like a con to me. Sort of, you take the bet, then they'll tell you it's a different type of bet. If a reputable site had this up I'd be all over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marockee Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June it's more likely Honduras to win both halves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Grenada @ 36 :loon Is it me or are these odds stupid? I'd get it if it was a qualifier, where you get your San Marino's, Andorra's, Scotland's, etc., but this is the actual tournament. Are Grenada really a 36 side? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalchan25 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Anyone like Honduras HT/FT 1.4? New to the forum but i have to think that will cover tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Grenada @ 36 :loon Is it me or are these odds stupid? I'd get it if it was a qualifier, where you get your San Marino's, Andorra's, Scotland's, etc., but this is the actual tournament. Are Grenada really a 36 side? Grenada have won 1 of their last 10 games (against Trinidad and Tobago), drawn 3 and lost 6 Of their last 10 games, Honduras have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3, against much tougher opponents than Grenada http://www.soccerway.com/teams/honduras/honduras/ Think there may be some value in backing Grenada - maybe Asian Handicap -2 if the odds are around 1/1 ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Only bet I've seen so far which doesn't seem to reflect Grenada @ 36 :loon would possibly be a Honduran clean sheet @ 1.50 (Bet365) but looking at Honduras recent results they struggle to keep shut-outs, and even managed to lose 3-0 against China, so not sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Napoleon Solo Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Jamaica v Guatemala Honduras v Grenada Jamaica started their Gold Cup with a very easy game against Grenada, Jamaica ripping apart a shambolic Grenadian defence time after time, managing 17 shots on goal to Grenada's 1. The score was only kept so low due to some decent goalkeeping from the Grenada keeper and poor finishing from the Jamaicans. Grenada didn't get the time on the ball, or the forward play, to really create any decent goalscoring chances. I watched the entirety of the Honduras v Guatemala game and I felt both teams were pretty evenly matched. Guatemala perhaps had the better of the first half, creating a couple of decent chances, while Honduras definitely came back into it in the second, especially once Guatemala were reduced to ten, and the nine, men. However, Guatemala still looked solid at the back and dealt well with everything that Honduras threw at them. As with El Salvador this morning, I feel the odds on Guatemala are vastly over inflated, simply because of one high scoring victory for todays opponents against a very poor Grenada. El Salvador aren't brilliant, but they showed against Honduras that they can create chances against the better CONCACAF teams, and are also quite resilient at the back. Jamaica won't get as many chances against El Salvador as they did against Grenada, while their back line is also likely to be tested by the decent Salvadorian strikers Henry Lopez and Carlos Ruiz. In the other match, Honduras should find Grenada much easier to break down than they did with El Salvador. The defending by Grenada was almost comical at times, though not as bad as Cuba's, and I could see Honduras putting at least the same amount of goals past Grenada that Jamaica did. Honduras are a good enough team to control the match and not allow Grenada many chances at goal as well. El Salvador AH(+0.5) @ 2.82 (10Bet) - 2/10 Honduras AH(-3) @ 2.15 (Bet365) - 3/10 Honduras AH(-4) @ 4.00 (Bet365) - 1/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marockee Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Only bet I've seen so far which doesn't seem to reflect Grenada @ 36 :loon would possibly be a Honduran clean sheet @ 1.50 (Bet365) but looking at Honduras recent results they struggle to keep shut-outs' date= and even managed to lose 3-0 against China, so not sure. too low, there can always be some shit, better take bts for low stake and cheer for the dog, or Honduras -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June I didn't watch Grenada's first game, were they really that bad that they can be tipped to lose by 3 against a side as poor away as Honduras are!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Jamaica v Guatemala Honduras v Grenada Jamaica started their Gold Cup with a very easy game against Grenada, Jamaica ripping apart a shambolic Grenadian defence time after time, managing 17 shots on goal to Grenada's 1. The score was only kept so low due to some decent goalkeeping from the Grenada keeper and poor finishing from the Jamaicans. Grenada didn't get the time on the ball, or the forward play, to really create any decent goalscoring chances. I watched the entirety of the Honduras v Guatemala game and I felt both teams were pretty evenly matched. Guatemala perhaps had the better of the first half, creating a couple of decent chances, while Honduras definitely came back into it in the second, especially once Guatemala were reduced to ten, and the nine, men. However, Guatemala still looked solid at the back and dealt well with everything that Honduras threw at them. As with El Salvador this morning, I feel the odds on Guatemala are vastly over inflated, simply because of one high scoring victory for todays opponents against a very poor Grenada. El Salvador aren't brilliant, but they showed against Honduras that they can create chances against the better CONCACAF teams, and are also quite resilient at the back. Jamaica won't get as many chances against El Salvador as they did against Grenada, while their back line is also likely to be tested by the decent Salvadorian strikers Henry Lopez and Carlos Ruiz. In the other match, Honduras should find Grenada much easier to break down than they did with El Salvador. The defending by Grenada was almost comical at times, though not as bad as Cuba's, and I could see Honduras putting at least the same amount of goals past Grenada that Jamaica did. Honduras are a good enough team to control the match and not allow Grenada many chances at goal as well. El Salvador AH(+0.5) @ 2.82 (10Bet) - 2/10 Honduras AH(-3) @ 2.15 (Bet365) - 3/10 Honduras AH(-4) @ 4.00 (Bet365) - 1/10 Er ... El Salvador are not playing tonight ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garyfinny Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Just watching the Jamaica game - really poor quality stuff although the pitch doesn't help. Guatemala don't look like scoring at all and I reckon they'll be caught on the break at least once. They are also a bunch of sissies judging by the way they've been giving it out but can't take it back. Surely a sending off coming in this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Just watching the Jamaica game - really poor quality stuff although the pitch doesn't help. Guatemala don't look like scoring at all and I reckon they'll be caught on the break at least once. They are also a bunch of sissies judging by the way they've been giving it out but can't take it back. Surely a sending off coming in this game. Guatemala don't need to score, they will be quite happy with the draw. Jamaica have been poor, the predictions on here have been solid, the +2 on G looks good, pitch isn't great but it's not that bad..G look very comfortable at the minute.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Just watching the Jamaica game - really poor quality stuff although the pitch doesn't help. Guatemala don't look like scoring at all and I reckon they'll be caught on the break at least once. They are also a bunch of sissies judging by the way they've been giving it out but can't take it back. Surely a sending off coming in this game. Comments like this shouild be posted on the 'livescore' thread ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Napoleon Solo Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June Er ... El Salvador are not playing tonight ;) I was really tired when writing this after a very long day, when everything just seemed to start melting into one another! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Napoleon Solo Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Napoleon Solo Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Re: CONCACAF Gold Cup: 5-25 June 7-1 :lol Stupidest tournament ever. What's the point in these Cuba and Grenada boys even being there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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