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About garyfinny

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 01/01/1980
  1. Re: Johnstone's Paint Trophy 3/4 Sept Regarding Gillingham v Leyton Orient - I have a feeling that Gillingham are playing a little bit better than their league position - having draws against Bristol City, Brentford and Swindon in their last games - all teams that are good for this division. Orient have started magnificently but have ridden their luck a little in the past few games. In the last few games, teams have had some very good spells against them and on another day, might have pinched a draw. On the other side though, only one goal conceded from open play in the league (the other
  2. Re: Champions League > 27th & 28th August Personally I think the odds on Celtic are crazy and reflect people piling in on them because of the relative unknown factor of Shaktar. Market sentiment seems to bizarre, slating Celtic for an atrocious performance, questioning squad depth, and now the market is fully confident Celtic will dish out a beating. But without wanting to get into a massive debate, Celtic are no more than Championship standard. And Shaktar are not really any mugs. To qualify for this game they beat off BATE Borisov, themselves seasoned CL and Europa League contend
  3. Re: Club Friendlies 2013 West Ham have named a surprisingly strong team for their trip to Hamburg: Nolan, Diame, Diarra all start in the midfield and there is a debut for Rat at the back, they are going in a 4-5-1 with Maiga up front. The game is being played at a neutral venue with fewer fans expected, which should benefit West Ham a little more. They got beat heavily against Mainz in the first game but I would envisage them tightening up a bit, I fancy them not to get beat.
  4. Re: Club Friendlies 2013 I'm not so sure I agree there. Wolves announced their squad numbers today and their transfer-listed players have not been allocated them, which means that presumably who is left is going to be involved. There are some super players at League One standard there, and if you look at their previous friendlies they have been fielding strong sides. Arguably they could field a line up which might be lower Championship standard and they have a new manager who has wiped the slate clean. I see a rather functional side for Chesterfield, nothing spectacular for League Two sta
  5. Re: Pre-season friendlies Swansea: Vorm, Richards, Davies, Amat, Williams, Britton, De Guzman, Shelvey, Dyer, Hernandez, Michu - very decent team out with no youth or trialists. Two of Yeovil's back four are trialists: Seaborne and the left-back Nana Ofori-Twumasi who needs game time - didn't have a single game last season because of injury. The rest of the side is the first team but there is a huge gulf with Swansea's side.
  6. Re: Pre-season friendlies Got caught with my pants down on the Orient result - the bench was extremely weak, only 5 subs and of these most were from the youth team. Still it was 1-0 for most of the game and Kevin Lisbie of all people missed a penalty to make it 2-0. Then the subs came on and the equaliser came in after 85 mins. Onto tonight's game and I'm looking at Swansea (1.6). They have a tour in the West and take on Yeovil and Exeter. More importantly, they have taken a full squad minus Bony but it looks very strong. Yeovil appear to me to have some issues at the back. They went to
  7. Re: Pre-season friendlies Ships, can I have your opinion on Tamworth? They are playing Orient tonight - and the Orient team will be strong, I feel. Had two friendlies already - both times switching line-ups at half-time but generally one half featuring a full first-team, even the weaker side featuring a good smattering of pros. There are no injury worries at all, I don't think anyone has played much more than 45 mins so far and Slade will probably look to step it up with no game planned for Saturday. Pre-season results have been good - 7-0 against a Chelmsford side full of trialists and 4-
  8. Re: Europa League Final > Chelsea v Benfica > 15th May I really fancy Chelsea for this game. They have been much maligned recently but on a fabulous run of form: 6 wins and 2 draws from the last 8 games, and it could have been 8 from 8 had late goals not cost them. They were really impressive against Man United at Old Trafford - even though Man U had nothing to play for, the way they controlled the game is pretty much what Benitez wants a repeat of. Player-wise I think they are better set up for Europe; for instance, Torres. No goals in the League since December, but a good scoring r
  9. Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May In that case, why use stats at all? I notice you used the last 3 home games. Why did you not make it 4? You have to consider everything - relative to the price. Did you see Wigan's defence in the last game and against Spurs? They are poor defensively, that is pretty much a season long trend. Overall will that have any effect on the outcome of the match? Of course it does. Even if the match sticks to your short term average - Wigan conceding one goal per game, Wigan will still have to score 2 or more to win the game. The conclusion bein
  10. Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May I'm not a Wigan fan, but I don't really fancy them at the current odds. Of course, it's a must win game for them, but then again they are at the bottom of the table for a pretty good reason: over the course of the season they have been one of the worst sides. Personally I don't believe they should be at such odds against anyone in the League. Their record versus top-half opposition is pitiful, 3-2-13. In contrast, Swansea have only lost 3 times against bottom half sides. The obvious argument is that Swansea are not a top-half team at the m
  11. Re: League 1 > 23rd - 27th April It sounds great, but perhaps this isn't a case of putting out 11 kids with no first-team experience. There are some really good players there - far from what some people are expecting - a bunch of kids. Probably half that side might have legitimately made the first team anyway, and I doubt the odds would have tumbled that far if Crewe just had an injury crisis. This is really a nothing game - if Walsall had to win to get to the play-offs I might agree with this. But the manager might be well aware of this gesture and might even use the game to play a few
  12. Re: Reading v Southampton > Sat 6th April I'm gonna take a risk and say the odds on Southampton winning are ridiculous. Certainly they have played really well at home, beating Man C, Liverpool and Chelsea, but against the weaker sides they have struggled - losing at home to QPR, as well as Newcastle away. Perhaps it says to me they are a bit better when the other team play a bit more football and take the game to them. This is something that I wouldn't really apply to Reading. Strictly speaking, this game isn't a must-win - they still have some pretty winnable games left with the mark b
  13. Re: Southampton v Everton > Mon 21st January Everton are largely on the drift here. I gotta say that surely in-play will have to be the call to see how things pan out. Everton have been superb at times this season and really outplayed opponents. On the other hand, Pochettino is highly rated; too simplistic to think the players will be in disarray, it would take a bit more than that. Don't really fancy Everton at evens but at around 2.3, I might be interested, but I'd like to see how Saints are setting up first. A draw is distinctly possible here for me.
  14. Re: Ligue 1 > 7th December - 9th December How about Toulouse? Bastia look a bit too long considering both teams are bad at the moment.
  15. Re: Newcastle United v Wigan Athletic > Mon 3rd December Very tough game to call tonight. I suspect Newcastle are not value at under evens, and I reckon should be priced up around 2.2, they have a lot of injuries to key personnel but they have the key players Ba + Cisse up front. I actually think they were pretty good against a decent Stoke side. Wigan have been pretty much the same away from home - ultra defensive. They have won two from eight attempts but largely I see them sitting back and hoping something happens at the other end. Which is no means a bad plan - has produced 2 wins
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