Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

[erhaab1965]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Liking the thread. Q. I know you have started with a 100pt bank , how do you determine how much to stake per horse? What is your minimum /max bet ? Do they go up in 1/2 pt incements?

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread A frustrating few days. Good strike rate with 3 winners out of 5, but the other 2 were both narrowly beaten into 2nd and had they won it'd have made a huge difference. Never mind though. Dipped into a loss for the first time on Thursday but 2 winners from 2 yesterday quickly rectified that Wednesday/Thursday/Friday: Bets placed: 5 Winners: 3 Strike rate: 60.0% Total points staked: 10.00 Total points returned: 11.56 Net profit: 1.56 pts % Yield: 15.6%

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 29 Total number of winners: 16 Strike Rate: 55.2% Total number of points staked: 61.00 Total points returned: 63.75 Net position: +2.75 pts % yield: 4.50% Current bank: 102.75 points

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

Liking the thread. Q. I know you have started with a 100pt bank , how do you determine how much to stake per horse? What is your minimum /max bet ? Do they go up in 1/2 pt incements?

Hi Erhaab Yes they do go up in 1.5pt increments. My minimum bet is 1pt, the maximum in theory is my full bank but I would never put my full bank on one horse. My biggest bet so far was 7.5pts on Frankel, I think it'll be a while before I beat that and I can't ever see myself going beyond 10pts. My stake is determined by how strongly I fancy the horse, that's it really. The more confident I am, the higher the stake

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:35 Curragh - Midday - Back She has an absolutely almighty chance of boucing back to winning ways here. The withdrawal of Snow Fairy is a massive plus for Midday's chances as although there are still 7 runners, this has effectively become a 2 horse race between Midday and Misty For Me. Misty For Me was well fancied for the Oaks lto but was well beaten by 7.5 lengths into 5th. It didn't look as though the course was the problem and she was seemingly just outclassed on the day. Conversely, Midday ran a screamer on the same day and produced one of the races of the season when mowed down late on by top-class colt St Nicholas Abbey. He is one of the favourites for the Arc De Triomphe which shows that Midday ran a belter that day to make him pull out all the stops to beat her. Midday is a high class mare and she'll take an absolute world of beating here 3.5pts win @ 4/9 William Hill BOG

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

3:35 Curragh - Midday - Back She has an absolutely almighty chance of boucing back to winning ways here. The withdrawal of Snow Fairy is a massive plus for Midday's chances as although there are still 7 runners, this has effectively become a 2 horse race between Midday and Misty For Me. Misty For Me was well fancied for the Oaks lto but was well beaten by 7.5 lengths into 5th. It didn't look as though the course was the problem and she was seemingly just outclassed on the day. Conversely, Midday ran a screamer on the same day and produced one of the races of the season when mowed down late on by top-class colt St Nicholas Abbey. He is one of the favourites for the Arc De Triomphe which shows that Midday ran a belter that day to make him pull out all the stops to beat her. Midday is a high class mare and she'll take an absolute world of beating here 3.5pts win @ 4/9 William Hill BOG

Gotta say it.....Midday has run well below par,reckon that she's mullered all those who had ACCA/TREBLES bets and all those who steamed in at 1/3 have been sent to the poor house:eyes

[kerznerpunt]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread While you dont make any profit at all, its still quite amazing given you at least dont loose money, betting on such terrible odds. Enjoy your writes. Keep up :hope

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Midday ran what can only be described as an absolute shocker yesterday. Something must have been amiss, as there's no way on this earth that she sould ever get beaten 6 lengths by Misty For Me. Sometimes that happens though and you just have to take it on the chin, however disappointing it is. Saturday: Bets placed: 1 Winners: 0 Strike rate: 0.0% Total points staked: 3.50 Total points returned: 0.00 Net profit: -3.50 pts % Yield: 100.0%

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 30 Total number of winners: 16 Strike Rate: 53.33% Total number of points staked: 64.50 Total points returned: 63.75 Net position: -0.75 pts % yield: -1.1% Current bank: 99.25 points

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread A busy racing day in general today and that has led to the bsuiest day for the thread since it started. Could be a pivotal day either way so fingers crossed: 2:00 Salisbury - Esentepe - Back He's still yet to get his head in front but he's been much more highly tried than any f these and he could well prove that this drop in class is a golden opportunity to finally break his maiden tag. He was 4th of 8 in a Listed race last weekend on the final day of Royal Ascot, behind some very highly thought of sorts, and this drop to class 4 looks like his time to win. Bronze Angel looks the main danger on paper having had 2 runs and come 4th followed by 3rd, but they were at a lower level and more would be needed today. There are some other interesting once-raced types and debutants, but the experience that Esentepe has should prove crucial here and he should make his quality count 1pt win @ Evens Bet365 BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 2:55 Windsor - Albany Rose - Back She's been quite heavily worked recently, with wins coming on Wednesday and Thursday of this week already. It's always difficult for a sprinter to win with a 12lb penalty, but connections have done an outstanding job in finding her such a poor race and are clearly very eager to continue making hay whilst the sun shines. She has won authoratively on both starts thus week thus far, winning by over 3 lengths on both occasions. That said, she hasn't had hard races and may well have enough left in the tank to complete an excellent hat-trick here. Johnny Hancocks looks the obvious danger but he's been disappointing recently and may well have to settle for minor honours again here 2pts win @ 10/11 Betfred BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:10 Curragh - Inxile - Back I am a massive fan of this lad. He always gives everything and has been the most loyal servant to his connections over the years. He is one of the most genuine sprinters around and has been running all over the globe over the last couple of seasons. He was nailed late on 2 starts ago at Chantilly when finishing 3rd in a 3 way photo, but that form has taken a humongous boost with the 2nd coming out and winning well in a hot race at Royal Ascot last week. He loves to front run and is ultra tough in fending off fast finishers late on. He had Hamish McGonagall beaten into 4th when he was 3rd 2 starts ago, and although Hamish has to be srongly respected with a 3lb pull today, he rarely gets his head in front and seems to always find one or two too good. I think Inxile is a juicy price at odds against here 1pt win @ 6/4 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:50 Curragh - Carlton House - Back To me, this is a 2 horse race today. Seville is a relatively close up 3rd favourite in the market, but he was nowhere to be seen at Epsom and I can't possibly be having him here. To me, this is between Carlton House and Treasure Beach. Treasure Beach won at Chester in his Derby Trial, beating the highly regarded Nathaniel by a head. He proved that was no fluke when he went on to run a screamer in the Derby, when he looked as though he had fended off all challengers only to be nailed in the dying strides by Pour Moi late on. 2nd was still an outstanding effort there though and I truly respect him today. That said, I am siding with Carlton House. Alot went wrong in the Derby, both in the days leading upto Derby Day and on the day itself. He had been sent off favourite and been even shorter in the antepost betting afetr his demolition of the Dante field (again including Seville which is another reason I give him no chance today). He was ultra impressive that day at York and rightly installed as a short priced Derby favourite. His build up was interrupted severely though with a leg injury a week before Epsom, and although it didn't stop him participating, it clearly altered his preparations. He took his chance though and ran an absolute belter. He was hampered in running when at the start of mounting his challenge 3f from home, and although he got first run on eventual winner Pour Moi, he didn't enjoy as smooth a passage as the winner. He was forced wide around the bend and then forced wide again just as he was starting to get into top gear. Had he not been forced wide at that critical point, I think it would have been a different result. We will never know. But I think it showed alot about his class that he faced so much adversity both beforehand and during the race, that he was still able to mount a strong challenge and still looked like a possible winner in running. His preparation for today has been much smoother though, and I think he's in a different league to these. Hopefully today can be his day in the spotlight 1pt win @ 11/8 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 5:15 Salisbury - Gatewood - Back Ran a great race when 2nd on debut. He started relatively slowly and was held up in mid division and given plenty to do that day, but the penny dropped and he was eye-catching in the way he ate up the ground. He was only narrowly denied that day and looked a sure-fire future winner. He's been found a good chance nby connections to gain compenstion here and he should immediately go 1 better here 2.5pts win @ 4/9 Bet365 BOG

[skylark2009]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Good luck today Wizzkid. :hope

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 5:45 Salisbury - Camberley Two - Back He looked like he'd been a handicap project when showing marked improvement on his seasonal re-appearance when coming 3rd. He built on the when looking a totally transformed horse lto when absolutely hacking up practically hard held. He is turned out again quickly here before the handicapper gets chance to re-assess him and that looks significant. Under normal circumstances I'd have 3pts on him here, but it's an Apprentice race and they have a tendancy to throw up some whack results so on that basis I'm sticking with the minimum stake despite the fact that I think he'll win 1pt win @ 5/6 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

Good luck today Wizzkid. :hope

Cheers Skylark. Big day, alot of points at risk!!

[skylark2009]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

5:45 Salisbury - Camberley Two - Back He looked like he'd been a handicap project when showing marked improvement on his seasonal re-appearance when coming 3rd. He built on the when looking a totally transformed horse lto when absolutely hacking up practically hard held. He is turned out again quickly here before the handicapper gets chance to re-assess him and that looks significant. Under normal circumstances I'd have 3pts on him here, but it's an Apprentice race and they have a tendancy to throw up some whack results so on that basis I'm sticking with the minimum stake despite the fact that I think he'll win 1pt win @ 5/6 William Hill BOG

Excellent results today Wizzkid. :clap The right stakes were on the right horses, but I think you should have gone with the 3pts on the last though (I rated this one as having the best chance of winning out of all of them today)

[Stevet1859]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Good day Wizzkid :clap

[BillyHills]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Flippin hell Wizz were you bored today:lol Well done mate:clap

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread A mixed bag today for your selections,some winners and some losers. Have to say that CARLTON HOUSE ran a little flat,as SEVILLE has reversed recent form,dont think this will go down as a vintage IRISH DERBY;). I was also of the opinion that it was a 2 horse race[C HOUSE & T BEACH],i did the reverse exacta:sad Infuriatingly i also got the HANNON 2YO 1-2 exacta in the wrong order[didnt reverse that one...duh!] as well![in the first race at salibury],the winner showed only a small amount of promise in what is typically a decent newbury maiden,i expected it to improve,but not to the extent to trouble the fav who ran 4th[albeit well beaten] at R ASCOT.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Cheers lads. BH, haha!! Wasn't bored at all but looked like plenty of nice chances! The 2 at The Curragh disappointed, particularly Carlton House. Esentepe should have won but just wasn't good enough to go past the improving winner. Skylark, cheers mate. Was fairly chuffed, although had 1 of the losers been a winner it'd have made a big difference. That's what it's all about though, fine margins. You're probably right about Camberley Two but I've seen loads of weird results over the years in Apprentice races so as a rule I don't wade in big in them nowadays. It saves me more times than it costs me, that's for sure (clearly not today though!!)

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Today: Bets placed: 6 Winners: 3 Strike rate: 50.0% Total points staked: 8.50 Total points returned: 9.26 Net profit: 0.76 pts % Yield: 8.94%

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 36 Total number of winners: 19 Strike Rate: 52.78% Total number of points staked: 73.00 Total points returned: 73.01 Net position: +0.01 pts!! % yield: 0.014% Current bank: 99.25 points

[BillyHills]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Think Dandy has said some of his are just not firing, Regal Parade and Inxile are two good examples from the weekend, one or two ran poorly at Ascot too?

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Yeah, both of them looked to be place bankers at worst on paper and yet both were nowhere in their respective races. Absolutely no excuses for Inxile as he had the plum draw for his running style. As soon as he failed to lead you knew his chance was shot really to be honest

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

Absolutely no excuses for Inxile as he had the plum draw for his running style. As soon as he failed to lead you knew his chance was shot really to be honest

For me,the race was set up for the winner,HAMISH M and INXILE both ran flat out and took each other on for the lead,they cut each others throats so to speak,which left it wide open for a late closer and that is INVINCBLE ASHES running style.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 2:15 Hamilton - Vassaria - Back Has run 2 good races thus far with two thirds and should be able to break the maiden tag here. Has been dropped in grade into an easier race here and has achieved far mire thus far than today's opponents. Looks hard to oppose here 5pts win @ 3/10 Bet365 BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 5:00 Brighton - Camberley Two - Back Looks an absolute bombproof banker here. Has won 2 races with consummate ease recently and looks set for the hat trick. The latest was an apprentice race so he only carries one penalty and the jockey claims 5lbs back do he's only carrying 1pm effectively as a penalty. Should hose up 5 pts win @ 1/4 bet365 bog

[BillyHills]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

For me' date='the race was set up for the winner,HAMISH M and INXILE both ran flat out and took each other on for the lead,they cut each others throats so to speak,which left it wide open for a late closer and that is INVINCBLE ASHES running style.[/quote'] Sorry BAGS, cant seem to find your post about this race before the off and the result was known? Any ideas mate? Bit of profit today Wizz, nice one.