andyjkmak Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread I dont want to pi$$ on your chips pal but i've got to say I think your just being exeptionally lucky thus far. I think come the end of the month you'll show a loss. You and I have had major debates on this Whizzkid but at the end of the day everyone is entitled to bet how they like, comments like the one above are shameful and should be just ignored. Maybe if TUS put in the same effort it takes to start and maintain a thread as he does on insults he might be a more valuable contibutor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread as for FINTRON............insults belong in the school playground :$ Rubbish. Whether you agree with backing shorties or not is irrelevant to the argument. If a member starts their own thread it is not the done thing on here to question a members integrity and say they have been lucky - that's not even constructive criticism. This is especially true when the said member is showing long term bbotd profit - to level stakes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread I'm following this thread with great interest as some of the bets are the ones i've backed recently. Q. Are you betting these selections yourself ? If so do you follow your staking plan with a 100 point bank? Yes I do Erhaab. And yes I follow the staking plan to a 1pp pt bank. I cannot stress how important it is to have a separate betting bank. It is also crucial that you stake accordingly, do not back odds on shots to level stakes, bad idea in my opinion. For example I had 7.5pts on Frankel which is easily the biggest bet on the thread so far. That was the same for me in real life. It is important to stake in line with your confidence level on that horse winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread I will stay neutral on this one. Yes,it may seem obvious to some and if there are 2 or 3 of extremely short ones get beat in sucsession,then obviously you will find yourself deep in the mire financially. All that said,WW does appear to use logical analysis in his selections. So i can see both sides of the coin on this one. as for FINTRON............insults belong in the school playground :$ God post Bags. But I didn't understand the last line. Were you having a go at Fintron or Torn Up Slip? If it was Fintron then I don't understand as I think he was completely right to have a go at TUS for such a crazy post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread You and I have had major debates on this Whizzkid but at the end of the day everyone is entitled to bet how they like, comments like the one above are shameful and should be just ignored. Maybe if TUS put in the same effort it takes to start and maintain a thread as he does on insults he might be a more valuable contibutor Cheers Andy. I know we have immensely different opinions about odds on shots but I think the single greatest thing about this forum is that people can have totally opposite opinions and betting preferences but still respect each others opinions and still want each other to do well. (Not so sure TUS falls into that bracket!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Bit of a shocker yesterday. Priors Gold had the apparent danger well beaten into third, but was unable to get past the long time leader, who held on at a gut-wrenching Betfair SP of 117.0!! Sometimes the rags come good and it's just one of those things you have to live with when taking short prices Yesterday: Bets placed: 1 Winners: 0 Strike rate: 0.0% Total points staked: 2.00 Total points returned: 0.00 Net profit: -2.00 pts % Yield: -100.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 22 Total number of winners: 12 Strike Rate: 54.5% Total number of points staked: 47.00 Total points returned: 48.74 Net position: +1.74 pts % yield: 3.7% Current bank: 101.74 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:00 Wolverhampton - Trumpington Street - Back Ran his best so far lto when beaten by a smart looking type at Lingfield. He was 6 lengths clear of 3rd that day which indicates he is still a smart enough prospect. Has been well backed all day, both at the bookmakers and on the exchanges, and I think he'll break the maiden tage nicely here 2pts win @ 8/11 William Hill BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Trumpington Street was a major let down there, really poor not to win that race 3:30 Wolverhampton - Shamaal Nibraas - Back Ran a really pleasing race on debut when 4th. He got the picture late on and ran on really strongly and should have learnt alot from that. This looks a moderate bunch and he should go 3 better here 2pts win @ 8/11 Paddy Power BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Back in the groove today Wizzkid :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread This baby was 2/1 in the morning :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Trumpington Street was a major let down there, really poor not to win that race 3:30 Wolverhampton - Shamaal Nibraas - Back Ran a really pleasing race on debut when 4th. He got the picture late on and ran on really strongly and should have learnt alot from that. This looks a moderate bunch and he should go 3 better here 2pts win @ 8/11 Paddy Power BOG Hi, I'm very new to the world of horse racing but very interested in the sport. I've been looking at your method and selections and I'm impressed, you certainly know your stuff. But, I'm intrigued by your criteria in selecting horses. As mileni has pointed out, this horse was 2/1 this morning. Did the market support make it a bet or was it a bet that you just missed an early price on? I'm hoping it wasn't (what I find myself doing :( ) simply a pick due to the fact that the early one lost. I'm in no means trying to have a go here because, as stated, I have a lot of respect for you and always look out for your selections in this thread and others, I'm just trying to get some info to learn more myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread I don't personally like backing shorties as I don't see the point, especially on a regular basis. Fair enough if you have plenty of money and your going to put 40k on big bucks or frankel every now and again but otherwise it just seems a struggle to make profit from it. The strike rate is very impressive but the profit is not. I just wouldn't have the patience for it so fair play to you. This will make me un-popular but I don't get why people congratulate you on pickin odds on winners. It's like when Richard congratulates himself for placed horses. Maybe it's just me that finds this rather strange. I don't mean this to sound in any way offensive but it's just my opinion. I am no expert and don't claim to be one... Just a student bum! Hope the winners keep flowing... As I am sure long winning sequences are needed to make profits in backing shorties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread This baby was 2/1 in the morning :eek Amazing, sustained gamble, even at that level. Hacked up aswell to be fair to him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Hi, I'm very new to the world of horse racing but very interested in the sport. I've been looking at your method and selections and I'm impressed, you certainly know your stuff. But, I'm intrigued by your criteria in selecting horses. As mileni has pointed out, this horse was 2/1 this morning. Did the market support make it a bet or was it a bet that you just missed an early price on? I'm hoping it wasn't (what I find myself doing :( ) simply a pick due to the fact that the early one lost. I'm in no means trying to have a go here because, as stated, I have a lot of respect for you and always look out for your selections in this thread and others, I'm just trying to get some info to learn more myself. Hi Captaincool. Firstly, welcome to Punters Lounge and I hope that you're enjoying the early part of your racing punting career. Stick around on the site, you'll learn bucket loads from these guys, I have done over the years. To be honest, I have no set criteria. Alot of it is feel and instinct but there is also alot of form study involved. I consider myself pretty thorough in terms of my form study, I think I have to be with the prices of horses that I back. The 2nd one today, Shamaal Nibras, was one that I picked last night. I tend to do alot of my form study the night before because of the working hours that I work, so I already have it in my head that I have already shortlisted a number for the day. Trumpington Street and Shamaal Nibras were 2 out of 3 that I picked today, the 3rd was Gallivant. The first 2 were maiden races and therefore no prices were available to take last night. Trumpington Street was advised at 8/11 and went off at 4/7. He was given a good ride by the jockey but simply wasn't good enough to go win. I have no problem with that, but he looks unwilling to put his head in front so I won't re-select him until I see evidence in future that suggests his attitude has improved. Shamaal Nibras' price had already gone by the time I logged on, he was already 4/5. I saw the move on Betfair from the price it had been, and you can look at it a couple of ways. I'd expected around 5/4 so it wasn't that much worse. The strong support spoke volumes and I chose to then wait to see if it continued throughout the day (I logged on around Noon) until race time. The support continued which is why I left it so close to race time as at 8/11 I thought he was still a backable price, especially when there was money stacking up on Betfair on all the prices around the eventual SP. It was definitely not a bet just because I had lost, I have eradicated that from my psyche nowadays. I used to do it all the time, but I have learned an extreme amount of discipline thanks to this forum and therefore only back horses that I had chosen the night before on my 'shortlist'. I can't tell you how much this has improved my ability to make profit in general, it's a priceless lesson to learn. It used to cost me alot of money when I chased, that's for sure!!! Incidentally, Gallivant hacked up but his early price was 2/7 which I thought was short enough, and he ended up going off at an SP of 1/9!!! Wow!! Great question though and if you have any more please ask. I'd love to think that anything I can say to you will help you with your strategy or whatever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread I don't personally like backing shorties as I don't see the point, especially on a regular basis. Fair enough if you have plenty of money and your going to put 40k on big bucks or frankel every now and again but otherwise it just seems a struggle to make profit from it. The strike rate is very impressive but the profit is not. I just wouldn't have the patience for it so fair play to you. This will make me un-popular but I don't get why people congratulate you on pickin odds on winners. It's like when Richard congratulates himself for placed horses. Maybe it's just me that finds this rather strange. I don't mean this to sound in any way offensive but it's just my opinion. I am no expert and don't claim to be one... Just a student bum! Hope the winners keep flowing... As I am sure long winning sequences are needed to make profits in backing shorties. I get all of that CPO, I think you make some really fair points. Trust me, I'd much rather have a lower strike rate and a higher profit. I've had a bad few days to be honest and gone from 9 point something points ahead to 1 point something. This is not good, but I am absolutely aware that my profit and yield (yield particularly) are the most important parts and I am working hard to improve these on the thread. I am keen to get onto a streak and hopefully I can bang 3 or 4 in a row in and I'll be back to good levels again. As an example, if Trumpington Street had won I'd have been over 5 points in front which is a huge difference. It's all ifs and buts but I have immense confidence in myself and I am confident that I will improve the profit and yield asap. I wouldn't have congratulated myself today to be honest, I made a loss on the day to be fair which is poor. But I do appreciate people's support. I think people realise that it is bold to have a thread dedicated to short priced favourites and they want to support it. I see it from both sides though and I take your point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Yeh I suppose what I said must have sounded a little offensive. The whole congratulating thing on odds on shots was wrong. A winner is a winner at the end of the day and not all short price horses win so it must take some doing trying to pick out the good ones. I see what you mean about today's example. It just takes one loser to set you back. I do enjoy your right ups on the big shorties such as frankel and horses like that. I myself don't like backing odds on shots but there are the odd exception. Await the Dawn was a big bet for me. Hopefully you'll hit a nice little streak and put the thread in good profit. Then it's much easier to maintain as the odd loser doesn't set you back as much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAGS is BENT Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Rubbish. Whether you agree with backing shorties or not is irrelevant to the argument. If a member starts their own thread it is not the done thing on here to question a members integrity and say they have been lucky - that's not even constructive criticism. This is especially true when the said member is showing long term bbotd profit - to level stakes For me,his post wasnt anything other than him expressing his opinion,i didnt see him insulting anyones intelligence,demeanour,religion,race or creed,so am i missing somethimg here?:gimme Oh dear....his only crime was to infringe upon the hallowed ground of forum protocol,but hey what the heck! if you think its suitable to resort to using puerile colloquialism to vent your fury against him for so called violations of forum ettiqette.:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread But his comment had no foundation. It was so petty that he couldn't even respond when I asked him to justify his statement. I have absolutely no problem with constructive criticism but there was nothing constructive about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Bags- Fin and Wizz are good mates, he was just sticking up for his buddy, we've all done it, no biggy. I agree everyone is entitled to an opinion though, this thread was always going to be like this i'm afraid and I reckon Wizzkid knew that, not much to gain and lot more to lose. *Note to Wizz, dont back novice hurdlers with double penalties- ever:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread I'll absolutely take that piece of advice BH!! To be honest it's infrequent that I venture over obstacles as you know but I thought he looked standout. He was beaten fair and square on the day but it was ust a bitter pill pill to swallow when I saw the Betfair SP!! To be fair though, the winner thoroughy deserved it. Won't be going into that sphere again though!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Yeh I suppose what I said must have sounded a little offensive. The whole congratulating thing on odds on shots was wrong. A winner is a winner at the end of the day and not all short price horses win so it must take some doing trying to pick out the good ones. I see what you mean about today's example. It just takes one loser to set you back. I do enjoy your right ups on the big shorties such as frankel and horses like that. I myself don't like backing odds on shots but there are the odd exception. Await the Dawn was a big bet for me. Hopefully you'll hit a nice little streak and put the thread in good profit. Then it's much easier to maintain as the odd loser doesn't set you back as much. Exactly. Once I go past 10 poins profit I think it'll be a whole new kettle of fish. I do like to be extensive with my write-ups, particularly on the real shorties (such as Frankel) in the better races. I think people just think you've picked it because the price indicates he's a 'banker' when that is not the case and you have actually looked into it properly. I do set myself up for a fall sometimes though!!... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAGS is BENT Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Bags- Fin and Wizz are good mates, he was just sticking up for his buddy, we've all done it, no biggy. I agree everyone is entitled to an opinion though, this thread was always going to be like this i'm afraid and I reckon Wizzkid knew that, not much to gain and lot more to lose. Well....i reckon i had to give a balenced unbiased perspective,i,m something of a maverick on here,i don't see the need or inclanation to ingratiate myself on here,i just give an opinion as i see it regardless of who the author is and the subject. As for the thread itself,i shall be watching with interest,as i can see that there is still some logical analysis needed to be able to determine which are the TRULY GOOD short priced/odds on favs that will duly win and those FALSE ones that get turned over and send you to the poor house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread i suppose its a journey to the same place profit,and what you feel comfortable doing...if some one makes 100pts profit in a month backing odds on shots,and another makes the same backing long shots i cannot see the difference for them.. Personally i would rarely back anything under 7-1,and majority over 14-1,but many lose but once you hit the big ones profit is secured,but the losing runs can be long.For example i backed in a blog of my own Inch rebel at 50-1 tonight in ireland..now it is up against uncle taffy which is 1-2,but i feel that inch rebel has the better shot,i think im brainwashed. .I think it's quite brave in one sense backing odds on shots as you can imagine a lot of connections may not want their odds on shots to win:spank.. All the best with your thread.:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Hi Captaincool. Firstly, welcome to Punters Lounge and I hope that you're enjoying the early part of your racing punting career. Stick around on the site, you'll learn bucket loads from these guys, I have done over the years. To be honest, I have no set criteria. Alot of it is feel and instinct but there is also alot of form study involved. I consider myself pretty thorough in terms of my form study, I think I have to be with the prices of horses that I back. The 2nd one today, Shamaal Nibras, was one that I picked last night. I tend to do alot of my form study the night before because of the working hours that I work, so I already have it in my head that I have already shortlisted a number for the day. Trumpington Street and Shamaal Nibras were 2 out of 3 that I picked today, the 3rd was Gallivant. The first 2 were maiden races and therefore no prices were available to take last night. Trumpington Street was advised at 8/11 and went off at 4/7. He was given a good ride by the jockey but simply wasn't good enough to go win. I have no problem with that, but he looks unwilling to put his head in front so I won't re-select him until I see evidence in future that suggests his attitude has improved. Shamaal Nibras' price had already gone by the time I logged on, he was already 4/5. I saw the move on Betfair from the price it had been, and you can look at it a couple of ways. I'd expected around 5/4 so it wasn't that much worse. The strong support spoke volumes and I chose to then wait to see if it continued throughout the day (I logged on around Noon) until race time. The support continued which is why I left it so close to race time as at 8/11 I thought he was still a backable price, especially when there was money stacking up on Betfair on all the prices around the eventual SP. It was definitely not a bet just because I had lost, I have eradicated that from my psyche nowadays. I used to do it all the time, but I have learned an extreme amount of discipline thanks to this forum and therefore only back horses that I had chosen the night before on my 'shortlist'. I can't tell you how much this has improved my ability to make profit in general, it's a priceless lesson to learn. It used to cost me alot of money when I chased, that's for sure!!! Incidentally, Gallivant hacked up but his early price was 2/7 which I thought was short enough, and he ended up going off at an SP of 1/9!!! Wow!! Great question though and if you have any more please ask. I'd love to think that anything I can say to you will help you with your strategy or whatever Thanks for the response, very detailed. As I said, I like this thread and really don't understand the criticism being levelled. If you know your stuff and are taking good bets consistently then it shouldn't matter whether you back odds-on or 100/1 shots. My problem at the moment is too many bets. I might pick out a very good selection at 11/10 that runs like a 1/9 shot but then I'll think that backing favourites is easy and lose the profit on the next even money shot, assuming it's all that easy :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Was so busy replying to posts that I forgot to update Monday's results: Monday: Bets placed: 2 Winners: 1 Strike rate: 50.0% Total points staked: 4.00 Total points returned: 3.45 Net profit: -0.55 pts % Yield: -13.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 24 Total number of winners: 13 Strike Rate: 54.2% Total number of points staked: 51.00 Total points returned: 52.19 Net position: +1.19 pts % yield: 2.33% Current bank: 101.74 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Ok, time to get on a roll. There are at least 2 bets for the day at the moment, with a possible one or 2 more to come later: 2:10 Salisbury - Pink Sapphire - Back Was absolutely backed off the boards on debut at Haydock in a manner as though defeat was out of the question. The money was left behind though as he looked very raw and green. He will have undoubtedly learned alot from the experience and finished well enough to suggest he would be winning soon. He looks to have been found a good opportunity to make his experience count here and once again he's been heavilky backed this morning. Richard Hughes takes the mount and he has a good record at Salisbury and I think he should be able to steer this one home nicely 2.5pts win @ 8/15 Paddy Power BOG 2:45 Salisbury - Minal - Back His 2nd lto is the absolute standout piece of form achieved by anything in this race and he should be able to put that to good use here and go one better. A number of newcomers face him here but it is amazing how many times maidens are won by horses with experience and I take him to make his 2 runs count here 1pt win @ 10/11 William Hill BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread On my iPhone at moment so will update yesterday's results later. 2:20 Warwick - Kawasaaj - Back Ran an absolute belter on debut when 2nd in a much stronger race than this. He seemed to get the picture lto despite missing the kick before being mown down late on. That was over a mile and he is dropped back to 7f here which looks a positive. A combination of a better start and the natural improvement you would expect after a first run should see him win here 2pts win @ 1/2 William Hill BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Still on the iPhone so no update available, but disappointingly the thread goes into a minus after Kawsaaj got turned over Re: bbotd fri 24th 7:30 Curragh - Famous Name - Back Both Jan Vermeer and Elusive Pimpernel have looked below their best this season so far and therefore don't pose quite the threat they once did. Famous Name finished 3rd behind Campanologist and superstar So You Think lto and still looks to be right at the top of his game. Dropped in class into a Group 3, he should be able to get back to winning ways here 2.5pts win @ 8/11 Paddy Power BOG 2:30 Folkestone - Mizbah - Back Has a great chance here. Has run 2 really solid races in his last 2 starts without being able to grab a win. He has finished well on both occasions and today's increased trip could be the making of him. Many of the rest failed to build on their debut runs and he should break the maiden here 2pts win @ 8/13 William Hill BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.