Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Today: Bets placed: 3 Winners: 2 Strike rate: 66.7% Total points staked: 7.00 Total points returned: 8.13 (Wild Coco drifted from 8/11 advised to 4/5 SP) Net profit: 1.13 pts % Yield: 16.1%

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 8 Total number of winners: 6 Strike Rate: 75% Total number of points staked: 14.00 Total points returned: 18.92 Net position: +4.92 pts % yield: 35.1% Current bank: 104.92 points

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Just a summary about today. I think it goes to highlight one of the key things about backing odds on shots. I've had a terrific start to the thread so far and am really happy with the results so far. There are, though, going to be tough spells and they clearly aren't all going to win. The key is that you take your losses on the chin and realise that you don't have to win every one. The first one lost today but it's important that you don't let it dent your confidence or let it put you off your other fancies for the day. On the flip side, it is also important that you don;t just dive in to chase your money back just for the sake of it. This point alone, in my opinion, is the key to making backing odds on shots profitable. I think I have learned over the past couple of years, how to respond to wins and defeats and how to react to both pretty well. It is an essential balance that any short priced backer needs to learn. By no means am I claiming to be an expert on the matter, I clearly am not nor will I ever be. Just a bit of advice for any people who read this thread and back odds on shots. The way you react to a loser is more important than the way you react to a winner (in a financial/betting sense) in my opinion

[cpo]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Fair play to you wizzkid. Great start to the thread :ok I know I definitely don't have the patience to back odds on shots on a regular basis.

[Trotter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

Just a bit of advice for any people who read this thread and back odds on shots. The way you react to a loser is more important than the way you react to a winner (in a financial/betting sense) in my opinion

Probably quite true and it's one of the reasons why i rarely back odds on. Because when they lose i'm devastated.............:loon I don't know if this rings a bell with others, but when i back a real shortie I've already mentally added the winnings to my bank before the race is even run, so when they lose it's as though you've had the dosh in your hand and it's been snatched away..............which is much harder to take than just 'losing'

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 2:30 Chantilly - Galikova - Back She looks absolutely full of class and has a humongous chance here. Golden Lilac is undoubtedly a huge threat but the extra distance could trouble her. If the pacemaker can do its job and set a strong pace, then Galikova will have an almighty chance here 1pt win @ 6/4 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 2:50 Doncaster - Sandbetweenourtoes - Back Made a really promising debut lto at Newmarket, a track at which maidens tend to be much stronger in quality and depth than anywhere else. There are some newcomers from strong yards here that are interesting, but racecourse experience is always crucial in my eyes and I think he'll make that count here 1pt win @ 7/4 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:45 Chantilly - Sano Di Pietro - Back Not a good day for the thread so far today so let's hope the final selection of the day can re-coup the losses. He made bundles of improvement lto based on his debut run. He ran a solid forth first time out but put the experience to good measuer when winning nicely lto. He looks comfortably the one to beat here and has a monster chance 2.5pts win @ 4/5 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread An absolute horror show today, which was typified when I took 4/5 about Sano Di Pietro who eventually went off at 1/5 in France yet could only manage a disappointing 3rd. Pretty gutted, but I'll roll my sleeves up and come back out fighting when I have some good ammunition this week (Frankel in particular looks extremely good thread material). Today: Bets placed: 3 Winners: 0 Strike rate: 0% Total points staked: 4.50 Total points returned: 0.00 Net profit: -4.50 pts % Yield: -100.00%

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 11 Total number of winners: 6 Strike Rate: 54.5% Total number of points staked: 18.50 Total points returned: 18.92 Net position: +0.42 pts % yield: 2.2% Current bank: 100.42 points

[mowgli77]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

Just a summary about today. I think it goes to highlight one of the key things about backing odds on shots. I've had a terrific start to the thread so far and am really happy with the results so far. There are, though, going to be tough spells and they clearly aren't all going to win. The key is that you take your losses on the chin and realise that you don't have to win every one. The first one lost today but it's important that you don't let it dent your confidence or let it put you off your other fancies for the day. On the flip side, it is also important that you don;t just dive in to chase your money back just for the sake of it. This point alone, in my opinion, is the key to making backing odds on shots profitable. I think I have learned over the past couple of years, how to respond to wins and defeats and how to react to both pretty well. It is an essential balance that any short priced backer needs to learn. By no means am I claiming to be an expert on the matter, I clearly am not nor will I ever be. Just a bit of advice for any people who read this thread and back odds on shots. The way you react to a loser is more important than the way you react to a winner (in a financial/betting sense) in my opinion

A very sensible post and good attitude to how you bet mate. I try getting weak favourites turned over and aim for something like a 25% strike rate because I know that one winner will propel my profit due to the prices I usually find winners at and I often back each way because for me not losing can be as important as winning. I'd rather back ten horses and have 2 winners, 2 losers and 6 places because the places can often return profit too. You almost need to follow a few losses with a winner due to the prices and need a much better strike rate. There used to be one bloke went in the local tote would throw £150 at a favourite each race just because it was a favourite, no real method though, no proper form study, just thought it was easy to make money lumping on favourites. He lost more than he won and 4 losses later he's having to recover £600. You do much better than I've ever done backing shorties and I can only respect that. I went to York yesterday on a works day out and told them Sea Moon and Swiss Spirit would not get beaten but then didn't back them. I had Flag Officer and Ventura Spirit because I thought they were value against the favourites. It's ok saying they are value but I'm still left empty handed when the favourites fly home and I'm left kicking myself for not backing them. :wall I try not to oppose a favourite for the sake of opposing it, I have to think it is vulnerable but you seem to have a better idea of that than I have. :ok Good luck with the rest of the thread and for Royal Ascot. :ok

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Cheers Phil, great reply. I had a double on Sea Moon and Swiss Spirit the other day but couldn't put them in the thread cos waqs paintballing in Harrogate and couldn't get a wi-fi connection to post them up. Both won well enough in the end, Sea Moon could go on to bigger and better things I reckon. Can't wait for Royal Ascot, it feels like Christmas Eve today!!

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 2:15 Carlisle - Moody Tunes - Back He hurt me last week when beating Fremen who was the 4th and final leg in a yankee I had on. He went on to win well that day and looks to have been found a nice opportunity to follow up quickly here. Only the Osteopath looks capable of giving him a challenge, but he finds it difficult to get his head in front where it matters and therefore I am confident Moody Tunes will win again here 2pts win @ 10/11 Bet365 BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:00 Sedgefield- Mawsem - Back Comes into this race in undoubtedly the best form of anything in the race and should gain compensation here for a near miss lto. It's hard to see him getting beaten outright by anything else, so if he avoids jumping errors then this race is is for the taking 1.5pts win @ 4/9 William Hill BOG

[Daveee]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Bounced straight back with 2 out of 2 for today.. keep it up :ok

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Cheers Daveee. Needed that after yesterday! :ok

[fintron]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread good work today mate - I hope Frankel does the business tomorrow and shoves those speed figures where the sun..........

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Ha Fintron, great comment. Let's hope he hacks up. He couldn't have achieved more thus far in his career yet people still want to doubt. I genuinely think that the 2/5 currently available is an outstanding price, more on that later....

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread One last bet today, let's hope I can finish with a bang and complete a nice hat-trick for the day 7:40 Warwick - Timepiece - Back She is a classy horse and has already proven previously that she is capable of winning at this level. She showed, not for the first time, that she does not handle Epsom lto when a disappointing 5th but you can just write that off down to the track. Taking that run out of the equation she looks a good price here and she has a standout chance of getting back to winning ways. I think she'll win this before moving back to bigger and better things 1pt win @ 6/4 William Hill BOG

[RussP]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread :clap:clap Great stuff mate. 3 from 3, you can't ask for more than that. Gawon the Frankel:hope

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Cheers Russ. I'm absolutely all over Frankel tomorrow. Not just from a betting point of view, but also from a racing point of view, I hope he absolutely routs them. He's 7/4 to win by 5 lengths or more in places. Given that he beat the 2nd fav by 4 lengths in a prep race for the Guineas, that could represent a better angle for those not wanting to back him to win outright at odds on

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread An absolutely glorious day for the thread today, quickly dispelling the sour taste in the mouth from yesterday. As I stated previously, it's all about how you react to your losing streaks in this odds on game and I came back in style today. Today: Bets placed: 3 Winners: 3 Strike rate: 100% Total points staked: 4.50 Total points returned: 8.49 Net profit: 3.99 pts % Yield: 88.7%

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 14 Total number of winners: 9 Strike Rate: 64.3% Total number of points staked: 23.00 Total points returned: 27.41 Net position: +4.41 pts % yield: 19.2% Current bank: 104.41 points

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Onto tomrrow, undoubtedly the best flat card of 2011 by a million miles 2:30 Royal Ascot - Canford Cliffs - Back Hannon thought he could get Goldikova beaten last year with Pac Boy and tried on numerous occasions but couldn't beat the mare and always came up short. It must be said though that Paco Boy's ideal trip was always a matter open to debate and maybe that ended up being his downfall as Goldikova is an out-and-out miler. However, Canford Cliffs' ideal trip is not up for debate as he is a genuinely class miler and this surely represents the best chance Hannon will ever have of getting the French Superstar beaten. Canford Cliffs has put a disappointing start to his 3yr old campaign well and truly behind him and now looks the winder horse we always thought he could be. He had a scintillating 2yr old campaign and started his 3yr old season as one of the elite few that everyone wanted to see. However, he disappointed on his re-appearance when 2nd to stablemate Dick Turpin and then could only manage 3rd in the Guineas (a great effort in retrospect but disappointing at the time). He has, though, looked a different horse ever since and is unbeaten in his4 runs since that loss, picking up The Irish 2000 Guineas, St James' Palace and Sussex stakes on the way last year. He came back with a bang in the Lockinge at Newbury on his seasonal re-appearance this year and travelled outstandingly well before winning cosily in the end. He has a great chance here, but I absolutely respect Goldikova, hence only staking 1pt on Canford Cliffs. I think 6/4 is over-priced given that he is favourite in effectively a 2 horse race (there's no way Cape Blanco has the speed to beat these 2 over a mile). A breathtaking race in store and I like Hannon's chances of finally getting his girl at 6/4 1pt win @ 6/4 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:45 Royal Ascot - Frankel - Back I think he has an absolutely mammoth chance of retaining his astonishing unbeaten record here and I am actually staggered that people are still so intent on taking him on and trying to pick fault in what he has done so far. The truth is that you simply cannot pick fault in anything he has achieved, he's never been beaten and therefore whether he's been impressive or not, he's always got it done. You don't get paid out more or less if he wins by 10 lengths or a nose, you get paid the same. If you've backed Frankel on every run so far, you've been paid out every time. As an odds on backer, knowing that a horse can produce the goods when he is expected to is a major plus. He oozes class and has numerous strings to his bow. He has won from the back off a sedate pace, he has made all when setting a break-neck pace up front from the off. He has won in small fields and he has won in big fields. I truly believe that he has everything and I think he has so much natural pace that he is tactically extremely versatile and can therefore adapt to any race situation. The fact that Excelebration is 2nd favourite just adds to my confidence. Frankel beat him in the Greenham by 4 lengths in what was essentially Frankel's prep race for the Guineas. That was despite a slow pace and the fact that Frankel wasted alot of energy pulling early on. I think if tomorrow was to work out at a smilar pace, Frankel would be sent to the front earlier as to not disappoint him. Fair enough Excelebration was having his seasonal debut in that race and may have improved, but Frankel was nowhere near his peak in that race and I think it is much likelier that Frankel will win by further than it is that Excelebration can bridge the gap or even reverse the placings. I genuinely think that 2/5 is massively over-priced here, I think Frankel should be 1/5 or 1/6. I am therefore having comfortably my biggest stake in this thread so far and maybe the biggest stake that I will ever placed in this thread. Come on Cecil and Queally, bring it on home 7.5pts win @ 2/5 William Hill BOG

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

Onto tomrrow, undoubtedly the best flat card of 2011 by a million miles 2:30 Royal Ascot - Canford Cliffs - Back Hannon thought he could get Goldikova beaten last year with Pac Boy and tried on numerous occasions but couldn't beat the mare and always came up short. It must be said though that Paco Boy's ideal trip was always a matter open to debate and maybe that ended up being his downfall as Goldikova is an out-and-out miler. However, Canford Cliffs' ideal trip is not up for debate as he is a genuinely class miler and this surely represents the best chance Hannon will ever have of getting the French Superstar beaten. Canford Cliffs has put a disappointing start to his 3yr old campaign well and truly behind him and now looks the winder horse we always thought he could be. He had a scintillating 2yr old campaign and started his 3yr old season as one of the elite few that everyone wanted to see. However, he disappointed on his re-appearance when 2nd to stablemate Dick Turpin and then could only manage 3rd in the Guineas (a great effort in retrospect but disappointing at the time). He has, though, looked a different horse ever since and is unbeaten in his4 runs since that loss, picking up The Irish 2000 Guineas, St James' Palace and Sussex stakes on the way last year. He came back with a bang in the Lockinge at Newbury on his seasonal re-appearance this year and travelled outstandingly well before winning cosily in the end. He has a great chance here, but I absolutely respect Goldikova, hence only staking 1pt on Canford Cliffs. I think 6/4 is over-priced given that he is favourite in effectively a 2 horse race (there's no way Cape Blanco has the speed to beat these 2 over a mile). A breathtaking race in store and I like Hannon's chances of finally getting his girl at 6/4 1pt win @ 6/4 William Hill BOG

Completely agree with you on Frankel,but i'm not too sure over CANFORD. My main resevervation with CANFORD will he be able to fully utulize that devastating turn of foot on rainsoftened ground? Some wheather reports say that ASCOT could have a real downpour of rain between now and the first race which could turn the ground SOFT. If this comes to fruition then i doubt CANFORD will be able to come from the back and use that turn of foot,i don't think it would totally be up GOLDIKOVAS street either,but she has won over further on good[good/soft in places]ground b4 and she is more tactically ameanable and would be able to race more prominently,given the possible forcast conditions i would favour her. The ground has come right for CITYSCAPE but i would be disapointed were he to be too good for GKOVA even on softish ground,shame there is only 7 runners as he would have been a nice little E/W bet.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread I take your point Bags, I genuinely do, but I think you can look at it another way. Of the 4 career defeats Goldikova has suffered, every single one has come on ground Good or softer. She has never lost on ground better than Good. Yes, she has won on soft, but she has lost on soft. Canford hasn't. I choose not to hold it against Canford Cliffs that he has never raced on soft ground, it clearly isn't his fault. He did, however, make his career debut on ground Good, Good to Soft in places. He won by 7 lengths and it was one of the most impressive displays of his career so far. That suggests to me that the ground may well suit. It is a guessing game but I choose to take it that way. Most importantly though to me is the price. I genuinely think this is an absolute 2 horse race. I cannot see anything other than Canford Cliffs or Goldikova winning. I then make Canford Cliffs favourite within that 2 horse race, so I effectively give him a better than 50% chance of winning the race and I therefore think he should be odds on at 10/11. On that basis I love the 6/4 that is available and that is a massively deciding factor in the bet for me. I hope that all makes sense. But I absolutely appreciate your point. Great thing about this game is that it's all about opinions

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

I take your point Bags, I genuinely do, but I think you can look at it another way. Of the 4 career defeats Goldikova has suffered, every single one has come on ground Good or softer. She has never lost on ground better than Good. Yes, she has won on soft, but she has lost on soft. Canford hasn't. I choose not to hold it against Canford Cliffs that he has never raced on soft ground, it clearly isn't his fault. He did, however, make his career debut on ground Good, Good to Soft in places. He won by 7 lengths and it was one of the most impressive displays of his career so far. That suggests to me that the ground may well suit. It is a guessing game but I choose to take it that way. Most importantly though to me is the price. I genuinely think this is an absolute 2 horse race. I cannot see anything other than Canford Cliffs or Goldikova winning. I then make Canford Cliffs favourite within that 2 horse race, so I effectively give him a better than 50% chance of winning the race and I therefore think he should be odds on at 10/11. On that basis I love the 6/4 that is available and that is a massively deciding factor in the bet for me. I hope that all makes sense. But I absolutely appreciate your point. Great thing about this game is that it's all about opinions

Yes he did win debut on good/soft BUT it was just a MAIDEN race in which he ran prominently and keenly,given his subsequent exploits he was entitled to win as he liked. But going back to my main concern,since when they found the way to ride the horse,from the IRISH 2000 onwards [held up with cover] all those victorys were atributed to the horses stunning turn of foot in the last 100/150 yards on FASTISH GROUND.As you are only too aware of, the one thing that blunts a horse that is reknowned for its turn of foot is SOFT GROUND,ZAFONIC would be a classic example of this. For what its worth CANFORD would have been my pick on FAST GROUND. As mentioned earlier i would have backed CITYSCAPE for a place had there been 8 runners.

[Monterosso]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

As you are only too aware of' date=' the one thing that blunts a horse that is reknowned for its turn of foot is SOFT GROUND[/quote'] That's only the case if a horse doesn't handle softer ground. For all you, I or anyone else knows, Canford could be a different beast on softer ground. It's not beyond the realms of possibility, even though what he's done on the racecourse would indicate that he's a fast ground horse. It's a rather pointless discussion anyways, as the ground is more than likely going to be good, in the straight at least, where his turn of foot will strike a telling blow to the backers of Goldikova. ;) I hope anyways, as I'm plowing in with my first maximum bet of the season. -------------------------------------------------- Best of luck Wizz, hope it's a good day for you and great start to the thread. Keep up the excellent work. :clap

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

That's only the case if a horse doesn't handle softer ground. For all you, I or anyone else knows, Canford could be a different beast on softer ground. It's not beyond the realms of possibility, even though what he's done on the racecourse would indicate that he's a fast ground horse. It's a rather pointless discussion anyways, as the ground is more than likely going to be good, in the straight at least

Don't think for one minute that i,m knocking the horse,i just don't dont like taking short prices about horses where the ground is an unknown factor. But the best of luck to you and the other guy. At the time of typing SKY SPORTS say the ground at ASCOT is GOOD/SOFT [sOFT IN PLACES] so i would say that the old CURRENT BUN would need to pull out all the stops to dry out the ground to GOOD ground in the home straight.But the CURRENT BUN is out flaunting himself at ASCOT so lets see what the ground is like near race time. For me,if the opportunity arises the only bet i would have in the race,would be a match bet[which they do regular in local bookies] on CITYSCAPE against one of the other outsiders.