2,000 Guineas

[ken678]

About the only benefit I've yet found of getting old is that you have seen most things before. I can certainly remember any number of "red hot certainties" which were nailed on to win the guineas ....and subsequenty didn't! Frankel does appear to be an exceptional animal but betting is all about numbers. He almost certainly will be beaten some time - and at a price likely to be worse than 1/2 the maths, if not the formbook, is on our side. Not much has to go wrong on the day (going, crowd, trouble in running) to make that look like the sort of price that provides the bookies with their Rollers....we will see!

[wizzkid walter]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Lay him then. I won't be laying, I hope he hacks up by 10 lengths. I like to see the best horses win the best races, and he is undoubtedly the best horse in the 2000 Guineas

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: 2,000 Guineas

About the only benefit I've yet found of getting old is that you have seen most things before. I can certainly remember any number of "red hot certainties" which were nailed on to win the guineas ....and subsequenty didn't! Frankel does appear to be an exceptional animal but betting is all about numbers. He almost certainly will be beaten some time - and at a price likely to be worse than 1/2 the maths, if not the formbook, is on our side. Not much has to go wrong on the day (going, crowd, trouble in running) to make that look like the sort of price that provides the bookies with their Rollers....we will see!

Am with you Ken, the young guns NEVER listen mate. Sure he's Class but id rather lose my cash on a 100/1 shot than a odds on shot, still a great race to watch and still great for racing if he wins or loses.

[tjgreenway]

Re: 2,000 Guineas

Am with you Ken, the young guns NEVER listen mate. Sure he's Class but id rather lose my cash on a 100/1 shot than a odds on shot, still a great race to watch and still great for racing if he wins or loses.

My gut feeling tells me Frankel will win, and in a way I hope he does because he's such a fantastic horse, but I completely agree with your bolded point and at such short odds for me it's nowhere near worthwhile. Personally, I've opted for an each way bet on Casamento, couldn't resist at 16's :loon

[Quackers]

Re: 2,000 Guineas 2000 Guineas Saamidd 0.5pt e/w 33/1 Ladbrokes Taking Frankel out of this race, I think you could have anything fill the places. This horse was hugely impressive on his first 2 runs winning by 7 lengths in a maiden at Newbury and then winning quite easily in a group 2 at Doncaster by over 2 lengths. That was only the second run of his career so it was impressive how he travelled and then put the race to bed. The horses he beat that day in Approve and Waiter's Dream are smart animals in their own right and he beat them with ease. Saamidd's next run in the Dewhurst was so disappointing and surely this was not his true running. I am willing to forget about that run as it was too bad to be true. Godolphin do appear to have a much better chance in the race with Casamento and Frankie has chosen that one over the 2. He doesn't always make the right decision however and the young French jockey that takes over from him on Saamidd is very talented. I think I am right in saying that Saamidd is bred to be better over this longer distance being by Street Cry. Street Cry has produced multiple group 1 winners in the USA and none other than the amazing Zenyetta. I am hoping Saamidd can be another one. I had to have a small interest on this horse at 33/1 which I think is a massive price. Taken from the Godolphin website about Saamidd... Saeed bin Suroor revealed: "Saamidd works nicely at home and he is ready to go. "He ran well last year and he has matured through the winter into a stronger, heavier, more relaxed horse, so we are looking for a good run from him. "He is a Group Two winner, so we know he has class and the mile will suit him." Simon Crisford commented: "Nothing ever came to light to explain Saamidd’s poor run in the Dewhurst. "But the colt had a difficult disposition on the day - his attitude seemed to change and he didn't like the ground very much. Even saying that, he was disappointing but he has been working nicely this year. "Obviously, he has a lot to find with the principals on Saturday but we have been very pleased with his progress over the last few weeks."

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: 2,000 Guineas

2000 Guineas Saamidd 0.5pt e/w 33/1 Ladbrokes Taking Frankel out of this race, I think you could have anything fill the places. This horse was hugely impressive on his first 2 runs winning by 7 lengths in a maiden at Newbury and then winning quite easily in a group 2 at Doncaster by over 2 lengths. That was only the second run of his career so it was impressive how he travelled and then put the race to bed. The horses he beat that day in Approve and Waiter's Dream are smart animals in their own right and he beat them with ease. Saamidd's next run in the Dewhurst was so disappointing and surely this was not his true running. I am willing to forget about that run as it was too bad to be true. Godolphin do appear to have a much better chance in the race with Casamento and Frankie has chosen that one over the 2. He doesn't always make the right decision however and the young French jockey that takes over from him on Saamidd is very talented. I think I am right in saying that Saamidd is bred to be better over this longer distance being by Street Cry. Street Cry has produced multiple group 1 winners in the USA and none other than the amazing Zenyetta. I am hoping Saamidd can be another one. I had to have a small interest on this horse at 33/1 which I think is a massive price. Taken from the Godolphin website about Saamidd... Saeed bin Suroor revealed: "Saamidd works nicely at home and he is ready to go. "He ran well last year and he has matured through the winter into a stronger, heavier, more relaxed horse, so we are looking for a good run from him. "He is a Group Two winner, so we know he has class and the mile will suit him." Simon Crisford commented: "Nothing ever came to light to explain Saamidd’s poor run in the Dewhurst. "But the colt had a difficult disposition on the day - his attitude seemed to change and he didn't like the ground very much. Even saying that, he was disappointing but he has been working nicely this year. "Obviously, he has a lot to find with the principals on Saturday but we have been very pleased with his progress over the last few weeks."

If he had a chance i feel Dettori would be on him, just a thought.

[Quackers]

Re: 2,000 Guineas I don't know because Casamento has one of the best chances in the race other than the favourite so surely Frankie would be on this one even if he thought Saamidd had a chance. We shall see.. he might run an absolute stinker but I thought 33/1 is too big

[richard-westwood]

Re: 2,000 Guineas 14/1 without frankel on bet 365 would have been a nice bet in that case ?

[wizzkid walter]

Re: 2,000 Guineas

Am with you Ken, the young guns NEVER listen mate. Sure he's Class but id rather lose my cash on a 100/1 shot than a odds on shot, still a great race to watch and still great for racing if he wins or loses.

Jimmy I seem to remeber you being slightly big and bold about a certain antepost favourite at Cheltenham, Cue Card. He was hardly a massive price at 2/1 so it's not really fair to then slaughter us ''young guns'' for wanting to back an odds on shot with much more solid form claims than Cue Card had. Just a thought

[Zenyatta]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Frankel is a big horse, he was out of shape on his seasonal debut at Newbury and still Won, he blew for half an hour after the race. The horse is fantastic and has gears. He will win tomorrow, no doubts. 1/2 is buying money.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2,000 Guineas

Am with you Ken' date=' the young guns NEVER listen mate.[/quote'] ...but they seem to have a good memory not like some of us oldies with alzheimer's :tongue2

[fintron]

Re: 2,000 Guineas The Betfair market for the Guineas is incredible. Every penny seems to be for Frankel, which isnt that surprising, but the rest of the field all look incredible value, Pathfork backable at 8/1, Roderic O'Connor at 12/1, Casamento at 16/1 and Native Khan at 28/1. That said, I think I'll probably put Frankel in BBOTD, so that there is something to cheer if he does romp up!

[Trotter]

Re: 2,000 Guineas I'm desperately looking for an EW shot............I think Frankel will win however I couldn't back him at odds on. There's just that little doubt as to wether he can produce his turn of speed in a big field with a good pace on. He probably will because hopefully he'll settle OK and have a nice run behind the leaders........but it's a doubt all the same. Also any horse can have an off day and that's what puts me off backing odds on shots (plus i usually put the curse on them if they carry my cash..........:unsure) Sorry but i can't be having Casamento or Native Khan...........Derby horses !..........might run on into 4th or 5th and that would be a terrific Derby trial. Loving Spirit also has the look of a stayer My instinct tells me to swerve O'brien and Godolphin horses making their seasonal debuts in group ones..........goodbye Saamidd and Roderic. Broox, Slim Shady, Happy Today and Rerouted are not good enough to figure That leaves me with 3 - Pathfork, Fury and Dubawi Gold Pathfork looks a genuine group one horse and is the most likely winner if Frankel underperforms Fury is unbeaten, acts on the ground, has won over 7F here and won that Tattersalls Million race last season. Haggas knows his horses and the booking of Johnny Murtagh must be a positive ! Dubawi Gold is a real long shot - he looks very exposed with 9 runs already but he's fighting fit having won 2 listed races on the all weather recently and he represents Hannon-Hughes. With such a strong stable you'd think he must be fairly well regarded to be their only runner. I can see a scenario where Frankel goes 3 lengths clear at the furlong pole and the others kind of ease down but Dubawi swoops late to get 3rd.............running on through beaten horses Pathfork - 2 pt win at 13/2 Bet365 BOG Fury - 1 pt EW at 16/1 PP BOG Dubawi gold - 1 pt EW at 40/1 Bet365 BOG

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Not sure if I'll have a bet. Thoroughly expect Frankel to win. The only horse tempting me each way is Fury.

[Zenyatta]

Re: 2,000 Guineas If there is a horse to chase home FRANKELSTEIN its got to be Roderic O'Connor, O'Brien loves this horse and Ryan Moore is a master at headquarters. FRANKEL...£7500 to win £4000.....Easy money.

[fintron]

Re: 2,000 Guineas

Who does everyone fancy then? Previous winners 08 - Henrythenavigator, Murtagh/O'Brien, 11/1 07 - Cockney Rebel, Peslier/Huffer, 25/1 06 - George Washington (RIP), Fallon/O'Brien, 6/4 fav 05 - Footstespinthesand, Fallon/O'Brien, 13/2 04 - Haafhd, R.Hills/B.Hills, 10/3 03 - Refuse to Bend, Smullen/Weld, 9/2 02 - Rock of Gibraltar, Muragh/O'Brien, 9/1 01 - Golan, Fallon/Stoute, 11/1 00 - King's Best, Fallon/Stoute, 13/2 99 - Island sands, Dettori/bin Suroor, 10/1 Trends 8/10 making seasonal debut 10/10 won over 7f+ 10/10 by a stallion with stamina index of 8.0f+ 10/10 finished in top three last time out (6/10 1st) Sticking strictly to those runners making their reappearance and who placed in the first three last time out really cuts down the field to the following: Arazan 12/1 Evasive 10/1 Finjaan 25/1 Gan Ahmras 40/1 Lord Shanakill 28/1 Sea The Stars 18/1 If we stick to the trends to the letter and remove those without a 7f and those by a sire with a stamina index greater than 8.0f we are left with three.... Arazan Gan Ahmras Sea The Stars

This was posted two years ago, a week or so before the race and with Arazan a non-runner the two trends whittled the field down to just two in the end - Gan Amhras (third) and Sea The Stars (won). Not a bad result! The trends cited were very very basic and last year's winner Makfi did buck the last time out trend. I have this year paid much closer attention to breeding (given the speed qualities shown by Makfi last year) but for the purposes of this post I'll still run those trends by this years field and see who is thrown out for the purposes of some small stakes forecasts.... 1) Chop out any runners already sighted this season (brutal!!): Dubawi Gold, Frankel, Happy Todal, Native Khan, Re-Routed 2) Chop out any finishing out of the first three LTO: Broox, Saamid, Slim Shady 3) Chop out those with winning form only up to 6f: none 4) Chop out those with a sire's stamina index less than 8f: Fury That leaves a final shortlist of four: Casmento 14/1 Loving Spirit 100/1 Pathfork 7/1 Roderic O'Connor 10/1 I've done CSF's on the quarter but tried to focus on their breeding to pick out a winner...... Casamento looks suited to a mile. Despite Godolphin stating that he was a Derby prospect, his pedigree is screaming 'mile'. He is a son of French 2,000 Guineas winner Shamardal whose progeny include Lope De Vega (won last years French 2k Guineas) and, on the dam's side, his relatives are more milers than middle distance performers. He is a half-brother to Inler (7f), Wana Doo (8f), Sky Gift (8f), Brosna Cry (7f) and Royal Moon (9f). His dam, Wedding Gift, failed to stay middle distances and notched her sole win over a mile. Loving Spirit is by Azamour (like Native Khan) and his sire's progeny, at three, prefer further than a mile even though he himself started his 3yo campaign with a 1m victory. The likes of Eleanora Duse, Azmeel and Lindenthaler all benefitted from a step up to middle distances at 3yo. Destined For Glory did run well over a mile having been unraced at two, but overall, the generall impression is that Azamour's progeny prefer 1m2f+ at three. Loving Spirit's dam, Lolla's Spirit, did all of her winning at three over 1m3f+ as well. Pathfork is USA bred, being a son of Distorted Humor. His sire was a high class 7-8f dirt colt and has sired plenty of effective milers so no concerns with the trip for him either. He is out of a Sadler's Wells mare, Visions of Clarity, who won a listed race over a mile at three. Again, bodes well. Roderic O'Connor is by Galileo who was very much a middle distance prospect at three. His progeny include Rip Van Winkle, New Approach, Cape Blanco, Teofilo, Soldier of Fortune, Sixties Icon, and many other classy horses. In general, those have been seen to better effect over further but New Approach was only beaten by a nose in this race. His dam's sire was an '8.0f'er though. Roderic O'Connor does have speed on the dam's side though from the Dam Secret Garden and from her sire, Danehill, who also showed plenty of speed. So taking into account class (Loving Spirit is unraced in Group company) and breeding, I'd order them Casamento, Pathfork, Roderic O'Connor and Loving Spirit. Casamento gets preference over Pathfork (the other true miler) as he is by a European sire.

[Evenstephen]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Having looked at the racecard I think anyone expecting easy money on Frankel today is going to be a bit of a mug. Over the years I've seen a few Henry Cecil odds-on good things in Classics turn out not to be as good as people first thought. Frankel beat Roderic O'Connor by 2.25 lengths last year in the Dewhust Stakes at Newmarket (Saamidd 15 lengths further back). On his seasonal debut a fortnight ago he comfortably beat Excelebration (rated 109 and 25/1) by 4 lengths but was heavily backed at 1/4f to do so. Pathfork & Fury are unknown quantites to me and from a value perspective I think 4/7 is far too short. This race is going to be run at a very quick pace with a reasonably big field and the favourite might not get his own way. Frankel is a good horse though and by 3-15 we'll probably know by then how good he really is. :cheers

[bowles10]

Re: 2,000 Guineas 2000 GUINEAS - SATURDAY NEWMARKET 1/14 Fav 13/14 had won a race (last years winner hadnt run before) 11/14 SP between 7/2 - 11/1 10/14 Winner LTO 11/14 Season debut 12/14 2 or more runs 5/14 Distance winner 8/14 Non distance winner 4/14 Course winner RPR 118-131 last 10 winners Last years 1st time out winner @ 33/1 messed up the stats a bit The best animal (last years leading 2yo) coming into this race doesnt always win, hence the poor fav stats. The profile i think here is 11/1 under, 2 or more runs, seasonal debut, stepping up in trip, RPR 118-131, win or place LTO and note those that won at HQ Fury meets all those trends although the SP likely to be higher than 11/1 Pathfork 2nd fav here today is another to take on the favourite Lets have those 2 against the field today Fury 16/1 >Bet365 0.25pts ew Pathfork 7/1 [url=http://forum.punterslounge.com/autolink.php?id=36&script=showthread&forumid=2]>Bet365 0.5pts win ps remember St Nicholas abbey last year ;)

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: 2,000 Guineas

Jimmy I seem to remeber you being slightly big and bold about a certain antepost favourite at Cheltenham' date=' Cue Card. He was hardly a massive price at 2/1 so it's not really fair to then slaughter us ''young guns'' for wanting to back an odds on shot with much more solid form claims than Cue Card had. Just a thought[/quote'] I would not have backed Cue Card at 2/1 fella. I had 16/1 10/1 7/1 and 7/2 with Cue Card. Best of Luck with Frankel, you already know my thoughts on odds on shots. :hope

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: 2,000 Guineas

...but they seem to have a good memory not like some of us oldies with alzheimer's :tongue2

As my Dads says Ted....They only remember the ones that lost. Or......your only in Fashion when your winning, Fashion comes and go's I always respect the old boys Ted, cos they have been on the planet longer than me. Enjoy yur day Mate.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Wow :eek

[Tull]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Wow, not seen a run like that since watching old footage of secratariat in the belmont, albeit over shorter. So early in the season as well

[Elchubb]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Wow what a horse! :notworthy

[tjgreenway]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Incredible, just absolutely brilliant.

[Trotter]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Amazing performance...........not much more to say really !

[Monterosso]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Bizarre!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Incredible. Doubt they'll go to the Derby now.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: 2,000 Guineas

Incredible. Doubt they'll go to the Derby now.

Or maybe they will... Henry Cecil is seriously thinking of running Frankel in the Dante, with a view to the Derby. He's 2-1 from 7-2 for the Derby with Stan James If he were to win the Derby too, then blimey...And we thought Sea The Stars was a freak!

[mileni4uk]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Fascinating to see the sectionals of this run.

[Blair Boy]

Re: 2,000 Guineas Surely the Derby must be out of the question now? Can't see how he will able to keep that sort of speed for 1m and a half and still have enough in the tank to win the race.