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About ken678

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 02/15/1948
  1. Re: Jump racing Fri 29th April 6.45 Bangor - Gorge -Sportingbet 14/1 - ew I confess I've never heard of Mr Cosgriff the trainer & don't know anything about the horse bar its last two runs. It must have shown something somewhere in the past though to be in this handicap at 11-10lbs, second top weight. In fact its last run 11th of 21 in a big handicap at the National Meeting reads well in the context of this race so I feel inclined to venture a couple of shekels each way. Well done re Petite Margot - nice pick
  2. Re: BBOTD Friday 29th April Lang Shining - 7.05 Fontwell - 5pts ew Ladbrokes Jaimie Osborne made his name as (an occasionally controversial) jump jockey and has done well training but mostly on the flat, especially the all weather. He likes a tilt at the ring from time to time though and this might be just one of those. Having run now the requisite number of times to get a handicap mark it comes here with sufficient flat form in the book to justify a win and I am taking the view that Jamie is not spending Friday night at a gaffe track, far from home, for no reason.
  3. Re: BBOTD Friday 29th April Sorry didn't put race on - its the 7.15 this evening at Bangor
  4. Re: BBOTD Friday 29th April Lay SWEET IRONY at 1.27 Betfair (£82 available to lay 1t 1.26, £154 @1.27) - 1.20 at Skybet. Can't believe the price of this. I was actually looking at tipping (to win) JonJo's new recruit from Ireland - Abnaki - at about 5's with bookies, 9 with Betfair. At the prices I'd prefer to lay the fav - and have all the others running for me too - on the face of it Melteme is not totally without a chance and JJ hasa second runner (how often do we see the second string "suprisingly" pop up at a gaffe track?) The fav is an absolutely crazy price I think.
  5. About the only benefit I've yet found of getting old is that you have seen most things before. I can certainly remember any number of "red hot certainties" which were nailed on to win the guineas ....and subsequenty didn't! Frankel does appear to be an exceptional animal but betting is all about numbers. He almost certainly will be beaten some time - and at a price likely to be worse than 1/2 the maths, if not the formbook, is on our side. Not much has to go wrong on the day (going, crowd, trouble in running) to make that look like the sort of price that provides the bookies with their Roller
  6. Re: Epsom 4th June 4.05 Epsom - Marie De Medici - ew - 66/1 We had a 66/1 winner, albeit subsequently disqualified, of the first fillies classic and I think there is a sporting chance of a similar sort of price in the second. The Johnstone yard has, over recent years, earned the right to be classified as amongst the very best and anything from there deserves attention.. The selection has been brought on slowly and it is interesting that this will be the filly's first go over 12 furlongs – a distance which both breeding and running suggest will suit. Obviously at 66/1 the thing is no c
  7. Re: Ripon 2nd June Red Fantasy - 8:40 Ripon - LAY - Betfair - Available £80@1.42, £144@1.43 With a beautifully bred newcomer from Cheveley Park and an unraced Johnston runner I think the odds are simply wrong. The horse has an obvious, but not overwhelming, chance on what it has done and you always respect Hills' runners - especially when the yard is in good nick, but not at 1.43!
  8. Re: FONTWELL - Wednesday - 2nd June 3:35 Fontwell -Regain Du Charbonneau - 15 BetFred ew "Regain Du Charbonneau continues to frustrate supporters" says the sporting life but it is getting nibbled at today and despite being disappointing at times has the form in the book to win this - or at last go close
  9. Karasakal - Fontwell Park: 3:00 - LAY - SP What a time to be away ill!! Have espoused the cause of laying "silly" prices here at length before and it did nothing for my recovery to see some of the hotpots at Cheltenham turned over - and the (was it?) 1/16 Nicky Henderson loser shortly before nearly transported me to the promised land. And now the over-winter Derby fav out ....ah 'twas ever thus. This Fontwell race is not quite Derby standard but at forecast prices (odds on) the selection is a false price Its best form is in the mud and it has possibly carefully nursed Twiston-Davies oppone
  10. Re: Rugby - 6 Nations England v Wales: Corals - 9/1- Hartley anytime tryscorer. Quite keen on an England win but so too sadly are the bookies - the prices don't appeal at all - either straight up or handicap. England's chances have been boosted enormously by the Welsh front row absentees - they will be missed and though Flutey will be missed by England the even bigger change in the centre is Hook playing. Lovely player - and typifies what all Welsh rugby was( pre-Gatland) about. Great skills and will do some eyecatching things - but usually amongst them some mega-b***ks which gifts the
  11. 1.30 Sandown - Binocular - LAY Betfair 1.20 (£799 available at 03.42) 2.35 Sandown - Punchestowns - LAY Betfair 1.30 (£4382 available at 03.42) Have expressed my views on very short priced things before. Both of these should win but the prices? I think it highlights it even more if you think the DOUBLE is barely 1/2 and they have 20 obstacles to negotiate with decent opposition for Punchestowns - and with Binocular a season that has not gone well - though the opposition appears extremely moderate in his case. Both may well win - but at these prices I'd prefer to be the layer not the
  12. Re: Cheltenham Sat 30th Jan 4.20 Cheltenham - Stradbroke - BetFred 16/1 (ew) Fond memories (could have been even fonder!) - backed it at Cheltenham last year and finished 2nd at 66/1. The horse likes the mud (significantly better than on faster ground) and has every chance today in my book. Would prefer (oviously) a bit less weight but think its in with a good shout.
  13. Re: Cheltenham Sat 30th Jan 2.05 Cheltenham -Bet 365 - Nycteos 8/1 (ew) Tempted to pick this simply for the novelty of being able to back a Stewart/Nicolls horse at 9/1!! Seriously though there are more cogent reasons. Nicholls has got where he is for all sorts of reasons but one common thread I think with the top trainers, is that they don't regularly over-face and disappoint their horses. It would not be running if it were seen as a hopeless case and though recent falls/UR over hurdles doesn't inspire confidence it ran well for a long way in top class Irish chase the other day.
  14. Re: Uttoxter - January 30th 4.10 Uttoxeter - Midnight Diamond - 28/1 (ew) Bet 365 Same reasoning (wight wise) as above. But additionally the horse's only win in plenty of attempts, was in the mud at Bangor three years ago - and it has other decent runs to its credit on soft/heavy ground. Upped in trip too may help
  15. Re: Uttoxter - January 30th 3.00 Uttoxter - Nomadic Warrior - 40/1 (ew) SportingBet When its heavy at Uttoxeter its heavy so I'm looking at the bottom of the handicap. Nomadic Warrior gets up to 19lbs from the rest and has (again if you go back far enough) bits of form, which entitle it to at least the chance of a place - and that weight may help. The yard must think something of the horse - they are consistently running it in a better grade than it apparently "deserves" so maybe today is the day.
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