Grand National Thread

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National Thread Golden Kite and Skipers Brigg sneaked in after few withdrawals today. Is it just me, or the Nicky Richards horse can actually run a big race at a big price? Beat Ballabriggs lto and should stay.

[paul21144]

Re: Grand National Thread I'm hopeless with horseracing ! However, last year backed 11 horses at a price of £30, and got 1 / 2 / 3 /4 ! People were laughing at me for backing 11, but I made £75 profit. My main reason for posting, is does anyone know any bookies offering places on the top 6 ? Many are doing top 5 with the exception of Ladbrokes. What do people think of Character Building ?

[fintron]

Re: Grand National Thread Re skippers brig, mileni, I personally think he is really well handicapped. He had smart form until a break and has come back in good heart recently. I actually backed this nrnb for cheltenham handicap but the ground was presumably too fast and he wasn't declared. If it came up soft I'd be interested but the drying ground would temper my enthusiasm.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Grand National Thread just updating the trends as some horses have got in late: winner 3mile + (must) weight 10 st -11-5 chase runs 10 minimum (all winners) chase win 20000+ or 130+(should be 135 really) career falls no more than 2 (all winners) aged 8-11 ran less than 50 days (all winners) this leaves : backstage oscar time ballabriggs niche market character building bluesea cracker west end rocker chief dan george killyglen always waining cant buy time golden kite *backstage fails on 10 chase runs but has 8 and many point to point wins so ive left him in but fails i think on strict guidlines but only just hence left in the winner of the national would have been on this shortlist 17 times out of last 20 runnings !! so nearly 90% chance winner is on this list now hard to narrow down now but 7 of last 10 winners had previously run over national fences regardless of finishing position (even if fell ) that leaves : backstage 152 114 266 niche market 170 169 (topspeed +postmark =339) character building 157 168 total 325 always waining 170 165 = 335 cant buy time 157 128 =285 very happy with my main bet niche market but it appears that character building and always waining have also the nescessary class and form to win the average national so my team for this year are : niche market 20/1 always waining 66/1 character building 25/1 always waining won today so wont run in national and wouldnt back him now even if he did so replace with cant buy time instead

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National Thread

Re skippers brig' date=' mileni, I personally think he is really well handicapped. He had smart form until a break and has come back in good heart recently. I actually backed this nrnb for cheltenham handicap but the ground was presumably too fast and he wasn't declared. If it came up soft I'd be interested but the drying ground would temper my enthusiasm.[/quote'] Initially I thought so too mate, but he was very good beating Ballabriggs lto and the ground was on the good side of good to soft that day I think.

[TheRat]

Re: Grand National Thread I have had a bet on him at 40s. Think he is an interesting runner now in. I had Our Monty NRNB and have put the stake back on him. I am sure he will stay. Looking back through his form you could easily argue he is best with but and in testing conditions but I would say he is more untried, and his run a Kelso it wasn't particually testing when beating ballabriggs. At 40s he is a decent bet I think at the bottom of the weight, and seemingly well handicapped

[fintron]

Re: Grand National Thread Well I suppose its like anything isnt it lads, a horse doesn't have to have proven form on GS or Good ground, providing you take a value price that factors that in you can still justify a bet. I think Skippers Brig is a good price so you can take a chance on him, so best of luck. I remember reading somewhere that Richards said (prior to Cheltenham) he ideally wants the ground soft so thats where my statment above came from. The more and more I look at the race the more and more I regret not backing Ballabriggs. When first making my antepost bets I passed over him as a doubtful stayer (out on his feet when landing the Kim Muir, albeit if the National will be run at a different tempo) but his jumping and form on spring ground makes so much appeal I think I'm gonna have to go back in for a small wager. Does anyone know if Jason will still ride after his nasty fall earlier?

[TheRat]

Re: Grand National Thread He went to hospital but no idea what the outcome was. Hope he is ok

[diamond1924]

Re: Grand National Thread

He went to hospital but no idea what the outcome was. Hope he is ok

He hopes to take 3 of his rides tomorrow (not attempting Sagalyrique for some reason, Paddy Brennan takes the job), and obviously Saturday thereafter. Wayne, much as I love Ballabriggs, he has to carry the torch for Presenting, who hasn't sired a classy 4m+ chaser. He's one of my 3 (Main bets were Backstage and Big Fella) but i'm least confident about him.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National Thread

13-3011 Skippers Brig (35 days) 10 10-2 Nicky Richards 138. Upset one of the ante-post Grand National favourites, and now 8 lbs better off with Ballabriggs after beating him 1¾ lengths at Kelso (2¾m good-soft) last time. Obviously 4½m is a different proposition, but Skippers Brig is proven at a stiff 3 miles and bred to get further. Sire Zaffaran a stayer, dam unraced half sister to 3m1f winner Skippers Cleuch and dam's sire Roselier a massive stamina influence. Skippers Brigg is lightly raced and capable of improvement. Possibly needs it on the soft side and unbeaten on heavy. Interesting outsider if getting a run. D Elsworth

Going at Aintree was good-soft today. Skippers Brig's win on good-soft means he's equally as effective on it. It may well be near to good ground by Saturday's race, but should be ok, especially with the trip giving an emphasis on stamina. Breeding is not everything where stamina is concerned, temperament has something to do with it; but there is no doubt he's bred to be better at this trip. I too have taken the 40/1 nrnb bog. At the moment, working on ground a touch on the soft ground of good, I make him a fair 25/1 shot (4% chance). Does not sound much, but it's a big difference for one for an "outsider".

[Hotpot Kid]

Re: Grand National Thread

What do people think of Character Building ?

For what it's worth Chararcter Building is my top choice, it has topped two separate trends lists that I have seen. Now trends aren't the be all and end all and they are there to be broken a la Mon Mome in 2009, no french trained horse could possibly win the GN and Don't Push It in 2010, no horse could possibly win the GN carrying 11st 5lbs etc etc. I got plenty of 33/1 over the past week or so and am happy with CB as my main pick. Whatever you choose to back best of luck!

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National Thread Dont Push It now 8/1 favourite with Boyles :eek He must run a big race; i dont think top weight would have stopped him last year so if he can reproduce that performace he should be in the mix. No chance of soft ground, which is a concern for Silver By Nature and Bluesea Cracker.

[Spooner]

Re: Grand National Thread Skippers Brig (5 Places, 1/4) (Each-way) 40/1 Skippers Brig just got in here and I like his chances. Nicky Richards' gelding has won on his last two racecourse appearances, he had strongly fancied BallaBriggs behind him LTO and although that wasn't a well run race he battled on well. Likely to jump well and hopefully can stay out of trouble. Arbor Supreme (5 Places, 1/4) (Each-way) 18/1 Wille Mullins has the current Fav in the race The Midnight Club but its one of his other runners that I like here. Arbor Supreme is another from the bottom end of the handicap and although not getting round last year I think he may be better for the experience. He was only a length behind stablemate at Fairyhouse LTO and a strong round of jumping gives him every chance in the National. Tidal Bay (5 Places, 1/4) (Each-way) 33/1 I think this looks a fair price on Howard Johnson's main runner, he has ran some very nice races this season and this could just cap the horses career off. Having gone well at the track before and finishing 6th in the Gold Cup LTO he looks worth having each-way, he has always finished his race in 29 career starts. Killyglen (5 Places, 1/4) (Each-way) 66/1 Not faniced by many but I think the stable can be confident about this one's chances, he probably prefer some rain around but the current going is good/soft which he has won on before. He tried the Scottish National when pulling up but that was good ground and clearly didn't suit, changed stables since that. New trainer has gave this one 4 races this season ready for the National and he could cause an upset.

[BlackSamBellamy]

Re: Grand National Thread Looks like Don't Push It is going to be favourite now,big gamble on today.

[Gillers]

Re: Grand National Thread Anybody have any info on how many times previous winners had fallen in general? or anything along those lines. Thanks

[bowles10]

Re: Grand National Thread

Anybody have any info on how many times previous winners had fallen in general? or anything along those lines. Thanks

its in my trends mate, no more than 2 falls over fences

[Gillers]

Re: Grand National Thread

its in my trends mate' date=' no more than 2 falls over fences[/quote'] Cheers mate, will have a look. Is there a difference between a fall, being brought down and unseated rider from the trends point of view? i.e. could a horse of fallen twice, unseated twice and be brought down once and still qualify as he had "no more than 2 falls over fences"? :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Grand National Thread

Anybody have any info on how many times previous winners had fallen in general? or anything along those lines. Thanks

Cheers mate, will have a look. Is there a difference between a fall, being brought down and unseated rider from the trends point of view? i.e. could a horse of fallen twice, unseated twice and be brought down once and still qualify as he had "no more than 2 falls over fences"? :ok

only falls counted not BD or UR

[london punter]

Re: Grand National Thread I think this year the National has a big price written all over it .... Dont push it has a ton of weight in my opinion and is a mad price now , i backed it last year at a bigger price and feel it was a lesser race , he may win again but the price is short now against form horses like QUINZ and WHAT A FREIND , thats just a few to mention , think it should be at least 16/1 the field , lottery of a race , take your pick and dont let the price turn you off especially if its a huge price is my thinking .

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National Thread Aintree 4:15 JOHN SMITH'S GRAND NATIONAL4m4f Added the percentage chance I believe each horse has of winning (Don't Push It 8.5%) percentage converted to odds (11/1) and my price (8.5%) plus a “bookies mark up” (1.5%) added to make 9/1. There is also a trainer form rating (Jonjo 8/10). Where a horse is available at a bigger price with bookmakers, it is at the bottom of each write up (Majestic Concorde I rate 3.25%, is available @ 49/1 which is 2%, a difference of 1.25% (3.25 – 2 = 1.25). 1. 1-P070 Don't Push It (23 days) 11 11-10 (CD) Jonjo O'Neil 160 8.5% 11/1 (9/1) Now on 7 lbs higher mark for 5 length 2010 success (153), from Black Appalachi, State Of Play 10-11 well beaten 3^rd. Trainer in excellent form at the time. Don't Push It goes in to race in better form than last year. 10^th of 23 Pertemps (3m) Hurdle, outpaced before staying on. Often made mistakes and inconsistent over conventional fences, yet took well to Aintree. Fact no top weight has won since Red Rum is a coincidence. If both first 11-5 and second 11-6 had carried top weight of 11-10 last year; 20 lengths back to third suggests they'd still finish 1^st and 2nd. Top weights have a good strike rate of placing. Ground was good last year, probably equally effective on soft. Trainer form (TF) 8/10 A P McCoy 2. 4-3226 Tidal Bay(22 days) 10 11-9 Howard Johnson 159 1% 100/1 (50/1) 6^th in Gold Cup is fair form, but again looked irresolute. Dropping himself out before staying on passed beaten rivals. Flattered second to Imperial Commander in Betfair Chase, out the back when winning rider went for home in earnest a long way from home. Tidal Bay is temperamental and unlikely to take to Aintree. Not sure to stay the trip, but laziness will help in that respect. TF 9/10 B Hughes 3. 11-524 What A Friend (22 days) 8 11-6 Paul Nicholls 156 4.75% 20/1 (15/1) Well-handicapped. 4^th in Gold Cup under Saturday's rider Darryl Jacob, showing more enthusiasm than usual in first time blinkers. Threw away winning chance in AON chase time before, found little and hung in behind winner. Won twice at this meeting. Doubts remain if headgear will work second time and/or if he'll take to these unique fences. Needs holding up until the last moment. TF 8/10 D Jacob (blinkered b) 4. U-7744 Vic Venturi (23 days) 11 11-6 © Dessie Hughes (Irish trained) 156 1% 100/1 (50/1) 12 lengths behind The Midnight Club in Bobbyjo (3 m) Chase last time. Under sustained pressure some way out and outpaced. Won 2009 Becher Chase (3m2f), but failed all three attempts at 3m5f+, twice in Irish National. Out of contention when unseated Grand National. Looks Exposed. TF 9/10 A Lynch (cheak pieces cp) 5. 2/1-31 Majestic Concorde (101 days) 8 11-5 Dermott Weld (Irish) 155 3.25% 28/1 (22/1) Jumped well when winning Paddy Power Chase (good) at Leopardstown (Dec 29^th) on his first try at 3 miles, unraced since but runs well fresh. Pace wasn't good there and won through speed. Though judged by his flat career, 4^th in Chester Cup, has plenty of stamina. Probably equally effective on soft and good going. Lightly raced and could improve again. TF 8/10 Mr R McNamara 49/1 (1.25% difference) 6. 42F14 Or Noir De Somoza (132 days) 9 11-5 David Pipe 155 0.3% 300/1 (100/1) Ex-French. Off 8 months prior to only previous run for Pipe yard, at inadequate trip of 2m1f. 22 lengths 4^th of 5 to Master Minded in 09 Victor Chandler. Better than that. Won Grade 2 Prix Georges in 09 (2m6f); 4^th of 9 (trained by C Avert) to top French horse Rubi Ball in same race last time. Won listed chase penultimate start. Raced almost exclusively on a soft surface. 3m+ form figures read F97F. Sire produced stayer Poker De Sivola, but dam won hurdle at only 1m7f. TF 8/10 B Gerraghty (cp first time tongue tie t) 7. F24-41 Dooneys Gate (65 days) 10 11-4 Willie Mullins (Irish) 154 0.25% 400/1 (125/1) Won Kilcash Chase (2 ½m) Clonmel, made most under trainer's son last time out. Ran well, mistake 3 out over these fences in Topham Chase to be 4^th off 9 lbs lower mark than Saturday (improved since). Stays 3 miles, but unlikely to get 4 ½. Effective on good and heavy ground. 8/10 Mr P W Mullins 8. -2F44 Big Fella Thanks (35 days) 9 11-1 Ferdy Murphy 151 2.5% 40/1 (28/1) In truth never run to his best when going in to two Grand Nationals a well-handicapped horse. Stamina doubts remain. Now off 5 lbs higher mark than when 4^th as favourite last term (146), after improved run in Greatwood at Newbury. Fair 4^th in same race off 149 last time. Poor finisher, often cruising over final fence only to find little. Jumping not yet as good for new yard this season. 7/10 G Lee 9. 05-244 The Tother One (70 days) 10 11-0 Paul Nicholls 150 0.5% 200/1 (80/1) Well-handicapped on 4^th in Hennessey Gold Cup off a mark 6 lbs higher than on Saturday. Trip should not be a problem. However, is a poor jumper, inconsistent, temperamental and with a poor strike rate since novice hurdle days. Highly unlikely to take to this test. 8/10 Mr R Mahon 10. 11-112 Ballabriggs (35 days) 10 11-0 Donald McCain 150 5.25% 18/1 (15/1) On short-list since winning Fulke Walwyn at Cheltenham Festival in 2010, upped 10 lbs for that. In clear lead over the last before tied up badly, just got home (3m1½f). Value more than winning distances. Again found less than expected when beaten at Kelso last time (2¾m). Has a good win to run ratio and usually jumps well. Trained by son of Ginger McCain of Red Rum fame. 6/10 J Maguire 11. 133-21 The Midnight Club(45 days) 10 10-13 Willie Mullins (Irish) 149 11.75% 15/2 (13/2) On pure form not especially well-handicapped. However, breeding and style of running suggest he's capable of considerably better over further. Never nearer 3^rd in both Spa Hurdle (3m) and Jewson Handicap (2m5f) at Cheltenham Festival. Outpaced before staying on best of all each occasion. By Flemensfirth, sire of Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert, King John's Castle (2^nd in National). Out of 3 mile winner from family of Toby Tobias. Unlucky 2^nd Thyestes Chase, then won Bobbyjo (3m). Travelled and jumped well, idled run-in and better than distances indicate. Stable mate Arbor Supreme now 10 lbs better off for just length beating. Equally effective on soft and good. 8/10 R Walsh 10.5/1 (3.05% difference) 12. 9P-F58Niche Market(35 days) 10 10-13 Paul Nicholls 149 7% 14/1 (12/1) Ideal Grand National type. Won 09 Irish National (3m5f) under H Skelton. Trained by Bob Buckler prior to this season. Dropped 7 lbs since placed for second time in Hennessey Gold Cup. 5^th off 156, 3^rd off 148 in 09. Despite reappearance fall usually jumps well, best on good or good-soft ground. Disappointed in Grand National when then trainer out of form and hold up tactics used; usually races prominently. Had wind operation prior to last run and trainer has excellent record with such horses. 8^th in Greatwood Chase last time came over wholly inadequate trip of 2 ½ miles. 8/10 H Skelton 28/1 (3.55%) 13. 21-071Silver By Nature(49 days) 9 10-12 Lucinda Russell 148 9.5% 10/1 (8/1) Well-handicapped. Easy 15 length winner of Haydock National Trial (3½ miles, soft), off 1 lb higher mark (149). Runner-up Ballyfitz franked form with 2^nd in Midlands National. Slightly rounded action and form indicate preference for a soft surface. However, trainer's other half Peter Scudamore believes it's just a need for a test. Sire Silver Patriarch won St Leger (good-firm) and grand dam Dalkey Sound 2^nd Scottish National (good). Every chance more to come at 4½m. Jumps well. Seeks to be first grey and Scottish winner since Nicholas Silver and Rubstic. 10/10 P Buchannan 20/1 (4.74%) 14. 57011 Backstage(34 days, point) 9 10-12 Gordon Elliott (Irish) 148 4.75% 20/1 (15/1) Well backed for this after small Point to point win in Ireland. Trained by up and coming and 07 (Silver Birch) National winning trainer. Connections believe best on sound surface. Encouragingly, travelled well in Grand National before brought down 20^th fence last year (same mark as Saturday). 3m1f winner. Dam more a speed influence and not certain to get significantly further. 7/10 P Carberry (t) 15. 1-753F Chief Dan George (25 days) 11 10-12 James Moffatt 148 0.8% 125/1 (66/1) 6 lbs higher mark than when winning 2010 William Hill (Spinal Research) Handicap Chase (3m½f good); fell in this year's race. Not looked in same form so far this season. Inconsistent profile, but possibly best in the Spring nowadays. Only 4 lbs better off with Ballabriggs for 8 length beating at Kelso. 5^th in 2009 Scottish Grand National (4m) implies he'll stay this trip.5/10 P Aspell (cp) 16. 56242 Calgary Bay (70 days) 8 10-10 Henrietta Knight 146 0.25% 400/1 (125/1) One of best looking horses in training. Good 2^nd to Wishfull Thinking (2m5f good-soft) off 143 last time. Jumped well but found little. Best performance to win Doncaster handicap (3m good-firm) by 7 lengths off 142. Unlikely stayer, took hold and didn't get home 2010 Gold Cup (3m2½f). 5/10 H Frost 17. P-2536 Killyglen (35 days) 9 10-10 Stuart Crawford (Irish) 146 0.8% 125/1 (66/1) Ex-English top novice for Howard Johnson, won Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree (3m1f good-soft). Also ran well to be 2^nd to Wogan in 2010 Grimthorpe (3m2f good-firm). Well-handicapped on that form. Changed stables and yet to prove as good; bit free in same race, weakened in straight last time, 6^th of 8 finishers. Possibly needs to lead / view of the front to jump fences well and maintain enthusiasm. Inconsistent. Best runs on good-firm to good-soft. 7/10 D O'Regan 18. 52-263 Oscar Time (45 days) 10 10-9 Martin Lynch (Irish) 145 5.5% 18/1 (14/1) First race for 7 weeks, travelled well long way, 3^rd to The Midnight Club in Bobbyjo. Now 4 lbs better off for 5 length beating. Fitness possibly played a part but often finds little. No need for pressure to win Irish Paddy Power (3m). Upped 17 lbs, looked Irish National (3m5f) winner on turn for home. Length down at last yet lost another 3½ on short run-in. Plenty of stamina in dam's pedigree, however most of sire Oscar's progeny don't need a test. Oscar Time is certainly not crying out for a trip. Raced mainly on a soft surface. Jumps well. Jockey trying two feats, first winning amateur since Marcus Armytage on Mr Frisk and Gold Cup / National double. 8/10? Mr S Whaley-Cohen 19. 0-1131 Quinz (42 days) 7 10-8 Philip Hobbs 144 4.5% 22/1 (16/1) Racing Post Chase winner (3m soft), looked beaten as Mount Oscar came upsides, fought back and going away again at line. Progressive and well-handicapped if form can be believed, almost every other runner error prone. 7 year old but French breds mature quicker. More experience than most novices, mistakes all three chase starts last season. Only loss this term behind Time For Rupert. Jumps far better nowadays, possibly needs to race prominently to continue to do so. Winner on good-firm and soft. Should get further than 3m but another 1½m is questionable. 7/10 R Johnson 20. 212-42Becauseicouldntsee(101 days) 8 10-8 Noel Glynn (Irish) 144 4.25% 22/1 (16/1) Not seen since late December. Now 2lbs better off with Majestic Concorde for a 2½ length beating when second in Irish Paddy Power (3m soft). Just one mistake of note in National Hunt Chase (4m Good) at Cheltenham as a novice last year. Every reason to believe will be better than ever returned to an extreme trip and is built for Aintree. Lively outsider. ? D Russell 31/1 (1.125%) 21. 00-06P Comply Or Die (42 days) 12 10-8 (CD) David Pipe 144 1% 100/1 (50/1) 2008 Winner and runner up in 2009. Nowhere near that form, 12^th of 14 finishers off a mark of 153 in 2010. Obviously trained for this, but no real promise in three starts this term. Pulled up in almost unraceable ground in Eider Chase last time. Best blinkered, on good or good-soft. Likes to race prominently / have some room. Veteran and probably on the downgrade. 6/10 T Murphy (b) 22. FF25P Quolibet (25 days) 7 10-8 Jonjo O'Neil 144 0.05% 2000/1 (800/1) 50/1 pulled up only British start in Cross-Country Chase at Cheltenham last time. 5^th penultimate start, trained by Francois Doumen; 6 lbs better off for just 2 lengths behind Or Noir De Somoza in (2¾m heavy). Poor strike rate, unproven over further and had three falls in a row. 8/10 M P Walsh (ftb) 23. 1FP18P Grand Slam Hero (63 days) 10 10-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 143 0.3% 300/1 (100/1) Fruitful summer campaign, won all four completed starts including Summer Plate. Still looked on upgrade after final success (August, 3m1½f). Now off 5 lbs higher mark. Never jumping with any fluency in two well spaced out races since. Possibly something physically wrong. 7/10 A Coleman (t) 24. 44/P3- State Of Play (364 days) 11 10-6 Evan Williams 142 2.25% 40/1 (28/1) Placed in two Grand Nationals, not seen since but great record fresh. Dropped 3 lbs for finishing 3^rd he might seem well treated. However, 4^th off a mark of 150, then 3^rd from 145; and now only 10 lbs better off with Don't Push It for 25 length beating. Trainer considers him best on a sound surface although won 2006 Hennessey on softish ground. Probably only place prospects again. 6/10 P Maloney 25. 1-11P5 King Fontaine (25 days) 8 10-6 Malcom Jefferson 142 0.125% 800/1 (250/1) Several jumping errors last two starts. Only 5^th off 2 lbs better mark in Spinal Research Chase, 32 lengths behind winner Bensalem. Pulled up in another big field (3½m). Not many sired by King's Theatre are true stayers. Upped 13 lbs since last win. Proven on heavy and good going. 9/10 D O'Regan 26. 341U In Compliance (20 days) 11 10-5 Dessie Hughes (Irish) 141 0.3% 300/1 (100/1) By Old Vic, sire of first two home in 2010 and dam's sire Montelimar responsible for Hedgehunter. However, weakened late over furthest he's tackled so far, 3m1f, in 2007 Punchestown Gold Cup (best season to race). Well fancied for 2007 Gold Cup before injury. On downgrade. Unseated last time, not first mistake. First time blinkered, easy lead to win penultimate start (2m2f soft).9/10 L Aspell (cp) 27. 75P-1P Hello Bud (84 days) 13 10-5 © Nigel Twiston-Davies 141 2% 50/1 (33/1) Age statistics are against him, but unlike most teenagers was still improving at 11, so age is not as big a worry. Won 09 Scottish National (4m Good-firm) off 133. Successful again off same mark in Becher Chase (3¼m Heavy) in November. Looked weak race for the money and 8 lb rise bit harsh. 5^th in Grand National, off just 1 lb lower (140) than Saturday. Pulled up in Classic Chase last time out. Races up with pace and sometimes finds less than expected off the bridle. 7/10 S Twiston-Davies (t) 59/1 (0.33%) 28. 07-11P West End Rocker (49 days) 9 10-5 Alan King 141 3.25% 28/1 (22/1) Acted on soft to win Classic Chase at Warwick (3m5f). Upped 8 lbs for ¾ length victory over Minella Boys with 8 back to Incentivise, idled and more in hand than distances indicate. Has action which suggests will be at least as good on a sound surface. Possibly lost action and quickly pulled up on heavy last time out. Lightly raced stayer, lively outsider if all is well with him. 8/10 R Thornton 49/1 (1.25%) 29. 207710 Santa's Son (22 days) 11 10-5 Howard Johnson 141 0.05% 2000/1 (800/1) Appeared back to some form with this trainer, won 2½m hurdle penultimate start. Possibly amiss, 100/1 16^th of 18 in Grand Annual (2m½f) last time. Often sulks if unable to lead. Won on soft and firm surface. No win in 7 attempts at 3m+ earlier in career, unraced at trip since 2007. 8/10 J Moore (t) 30. 21-046 Bluesea Cracker (45 days) 9 10-4 James Motherway (Irish) 140 4% 25/1 (20/1) Trying to become first of her sex to win since Nickel Coin in 1951. Recently purchased by JP McManus. Off 13 weeks prior to last of 6 finishers final start. Every chance before turn and heavily eased after chance had gone in Bobbyjo (3m). Fair 4^th at Cheltenham in November (3m3f½f good-soft) penultimate start. Improved form, won Irish National last season (3m5f heavy), finding much more than runner-up Oscar Time who is 5 lbs better off for 4½ lengths. Stayers on both sides of pedigree, including Grand National runner-up (to Grittar) Hard Outlook. Could improve further back up in trip. Raced almost exclusively on a soft surface. ? A McNamara 31. 391059That's Rhythm (120 days) 11 10-4 Martin Todhunter 140 0.1% 1000/1 (300/1) In and out of form. Disappointing 9^th in December, possible physical problem. Fair 14 lengths 5^th in Charlie Hall penultimate start. Bangor specialist, all 3 wins there, latest by 9 lengths off 133 3m½f good-soft. Also effective firm surface. Fallen in last two Scottish Nationals. 7/10 J Reveley 32. 2111/0 Surface To Air (27 days) 10 10-4 Chris Bealby 140 0.2% 500/1 (150/1) Progressive form before reportedly suffered a tendon injury when winning 4 mile Summer National in June 08 (third win in succession). First run since then, last of 10 in handicap hurdle at Market Rasen. Impossible to know if he's still got any ability. Form on good and good-soft. 3/10 T Messenger 33. 234PP Piraya (23 days) 8 10-4 David Pipe 140 0.05% 2000/1 (800/1) Back to his recalcitrant days, pulled up in Byrne Group Handicap last time out. Good placed efforts earlier in season, 2^nd to Woolcombe Folly at 2m1f and 3^rd to Mount Oscar at 2½ miles. Yet to run to form at 3 miles plus in Britain, despite many tries. 13^th of 14 finishers in Grand National. 8/10 J Farrelly (cp t) 34. F-8P5PCan't Buy Time(23 days) 9 10-4 Jonjo O'Neil 140 0.125% 800/1 (250/1) Lightly raced. Bad mistake and pulled up last time out in Fulke Walwyn. Best start this term when 6¼ lengths 5^th off 142 to Tartak in 2m5f handicap at Cheltenham in January. Winner of same race off 141 in 2010. Unseated and fell in two Grand Nationals. Travelled well long way, failed to stay when favourite, 4^th in 09 National Hunt Chase. Winner on soft and good. Inconsistent. 8/10 R McLernon 35. 30563 Character Building (35 days) 11 10-4 John Quinn 140 1.5% 66/1 (40/1) Balls of steel needed by jockey; won 09 Fulke Walwyn (3m1½f good-soft) off 139, led on line. Pulls himself up in front and inconsistent. 7^th (off 145) in Grand National, made up a lot of places on final circuit and now off 5 lb lower mark. 12 lbs better off with Don't Push It for 36 lengths. Fair 14 length 3^rd off 135 last time (3m2f good). Should be suited by a return to further. Could we have a real National Velvet in the year of Elizabeth Taylor's death? 7/10 Ms Nina Carberry 36. 51P/52 Ornais (36 days) 9 10-4 Paul Nicholls 140 0.2% 500/1 (150/1) Good novice in 07/08, difficult to know how much ability retains. Nowhere near best in 2 hunter chases on first starts for 2 years, latest at Newbury (2m6½f). Runs with a low head carriage (long neck). Stamina doubts, only 5^th when had form to win 4 mile 08 National Hunt Chase. 8/10 N Scholfield (t) 37. 2U-9P2 Arbor Supreme (45 days) 9 10-3 Willie Mullins (Irish) 139 4% 25/1 (20/1) Well-handicapped. Length 2^nd to The Midnight Club in Bobbyjo Chase. Oscar Time 4 lengths, Vic Venturi 7, and Bluesea Cracker 20 lengths back. Yet is respectively 10, 6, 12 and 1 lb better off with all of them. Rider cajoled an effort out of Arbor Supreme, never going for “everything”. Seemed less than willing in the past, best handled tenderly. Did not take to Aintree last year, already beaten when unseating at the Chair. Inconsistent. Stays at least 3¾ miles, acts on good and heavy. 8/10 D Casey 38. 5U-42P Royal Rosa (91 days) 12 10-3 Howard Johnson 139 0.1% 1000/1 (300/1) Lightly raced, poorly handicapped veteran. Pulled up as if something troubling him last time in Welsh National. Placed for second time in Becher (3¼m), 1¼ lengths 2^nd. Strangely now 3 lbs worse off with winner Hello Bud, off just 125. Unseated in Grand National. 33 lengths 6^th from 18 lbs out of weights in 08 Scottish National. Possibly best on soft surface. Inconsistent. 9/10 P Gallagher (cp) 39. 13-3011 Skippers Brig (35 days) 10 10-2 Nicky Richards 138. 3.75% 25/1 (20/1) Upset one of the ante-post Grand National favourites, and now 8 lbs better off with Ballabriggs after beating him 1¾ lengths at Kelso (2¾m good-soft) last time. Obviously 4½m is a different proposition, but Skippers Brig is proven at a stiff 3 miles and bred to get further. Sire Zaffaran a stayer, dam unraced half sister to 3m1f winner Skippers Cleuch and dam's sire Roselier a massive stamina influence. Skippers Brig is lightly raced and capable of improvement. Possibly needs it on the soft side and unbeaten on heavy. Interesting outsider if getting a run. 7/10 D Elsworth 43/1 (1.48%) 40. 1d10019 Golden Kite (27 days) 9 10-2 Adrian Maguire 138 0.25% 400/1 (125/1) Prolific winner of 7 of his last 14 starts. Improved to win Munster “National” (only 3m, good) penultimate start, making all off 128. First start since when disappointing 9^th of 14 finishers (2m7f heavy) over hurdles on March 13^th, should come on for the run. Already outstayed pedigree, By Anshan out of a mare by Strong Gale. Best on goodish ground. 6/10 S Hassett

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National Thread Great write up ginge. :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National Thread I might back Killyglen with a view to laying off in the race. He looks likely to make the running, is a good jumper and could go well for a long way before tiring

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Grand National Thread Last year I couldn't see any horse at a big price going close. This year I think it's open. One of my 3 bets is Ornais at 100's, for example! Always shaped as if needing a trip when useful a few years ago. Had a setback and only returned recently, running well in hunter chases. Last time out was only narrowly beaten by a horse who ran 5th in the Fox Hunters, and the pair were clear. Obviously has a lot to find, but this test might suit and at a massive price, could run a respectable race. I've spoken about Comply Or Die earlier, and that fits my 'middle price' criteria, and having worked down to Ballabriggs, Oscar Time and The Midnight Club for my well-fancied runner, I've gone for The Midnight Club. Everything looks prime for him, and is very consistent. Happier to back this Irish horse on the ground as opposed to some of the others. And has run well in England at Cheltenham too.

[cc75]

Re: Grand National Thread Arbor Supreme Goes fine on the ground, trip should prove no issue and strictly on LTO run against tomorrows fave The Midnight Club is quite well weighted. Was running level weights with that rival on that occasion and was only beaten a length - receives 10lbs from that rival and strictly on that run must be in with a shout at reversing the form. Purely on a value perspective, this horse must be worth a punt at almost double the odds of the jolly. 2pt win @ 22.0 Betfair 3pt place @ 11.2 Betfair Niche Market Would be no surprise to see this horse run best of the Nicholl's brigade. Gets on well with Harry Skelton (when trained by Bob Buckler), should see out trip no problem (former Irish National winner) and looking quite nicely weighted on best form (esp 3rd in Hennessy Gold Cup 2009). Must have a chance IMO. 1pt win @ 30.0 Betfair 2pt place @ 7.5 Betfair The Tother One Probably has the ability to win this and should see out trip no problem. Lightly raced for age and well handicapped on best known form. Hard to know for sure what you will get but at a very nice price worth an interest. 0.5pt win @ 110.0 Betfair 0.5pt place @ 16.5 Betfair Comply or Die Undoubtedly been targetting this race and on best form round here has every chance at the weights. Biggest question, is the horse still in love with the game and how much ability is retained. Conditions no problem and interesting it's being brought back for another crack. Worth small stakes at the exchange prices IMO. 0.75pt win @ 90.0 Betfair 0.75pt place @ 15.5 Betfair Dooneys Gate Another Willie Mullins trained horse, this time with his boy on top. Interesting the horse has been allowed it's chance here - won as liked LTO when winning over 2m4f from 10lbs lower and lightly raced so progression not beyond the realms of possibility, especially if taking to the step up in trip. Questions marks galore over trip/ground/course but at the available exchange price, worth small stakes bet IMO. 0.25 win @ 130.0 Betfair 0.25 place @ 17.0 Betfair

[london punter]

Re: Grand National Thread Agree with The Tother One got some good form in the book , lightly raced , could surprise a few people , At 80/1 with Corals that is huge , Quinz , Becauseicoulntsee, and Vic Venturi appeal to me in a lottery of a race .

[Gillers]

Re: Grand National Thread Based on a list of trends I threw together, the following 5 are horses who match most of the trends. Big Fella Thanks (18/1 - 1/4 odds First 5) Chief Dan George (50/1 - 1/4 odds First 5) Killyglen (66/1 - 1/4 odds First 5) Cant Buy Time (100/1 - 1/4 odds First 5) Character Building (33/1 - 1/4 odds First 5)

[bowles10]

Re: Grand National Thread I think The Tother One is a bit of a dog these days but thats my opinion! Thought i would comment on the stories that could make the headlines Amateur wins Gold cup / National Double Oscar Time McCoy wins 2 NAtionals on the trot with same horse Dont push it Premiership boss wins the NAtional on 1st attempt What a friend Father & Son partnership win NAtional Dooneys Gate Hello Bud McCain keeps it in the family (Ginger's son Donald wins the NAtional) Ballabriggs Lady Rider wins the NAtional Character Building :ok

[fintron]

Re: Grand National Thread Another pinstickers guide for those board and in need of something to pass time.... 1. DON’T PUSH IT – successful in last year’s renewal off 7lb lower. Was raised 11lbs for that victory but hasn’t been seen over fences since (kept fit over hurdles this year) and handicapper has given him every chance by allowing him to race off 160 – 4lb lower than he’d have to carry in a normal handicap chase. Conditions look ideal and likely to go well. 2. TIDAL BAY – classy sort that won 2008 Arkle over two miles at Cheltenham Festival. Showed some of that ability still retains when chasing home Imperial Commander in Grade 1 event over 3m at Haydock, but is far from certain to stay this longer distance and is a quirky customer that turns up when he wants to. 3. WHAT A FRIEND – high class on his day and won Grade 1 Totesport Bowl at last years meeting. Returned to form when a staying on fourth in the Gold Cup and 15lb well in on official figures but has a questionable attitude and one to treat with caution. 4. VIC VENTURI – won the 2009 Becher Chase over these fences and was travelling well until hampered and unseating rider in last year’s National. Not proven to stay the distance but one of the more interesting outsiders from yard that saddled the runner up (Black Appalachi) last term. 5. MAJESTIC CONCORDE – useful dual purpose performer that is lightly raced over fences (seven runs) but has already shown ability over fences when winning £94k Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December (Becauseicouldntsee back in second). Not certain to confirm those placings over this much longer trip but acts on good ground and no surprise to see him go well if his stamina holds out. 6. OR NOIR DE SOMOZA – prolific chaser in French and has won three top level prizes in his homeland. However, ideally needs soft or heavy ground and hasn’t yet proven himself beyond 3m. 7. DOONEYS GATE – respectable fourth over these fences in last year’s Topham has given him a taster of what is in store here but he ideally prefers a bit more give in the ground and isn’t certain to see out the trip (best form up to 3m previously). 8. BIG FELLA THANKS – has finished sixth and fourth in the last two renewals of this race but been well held on both occasions and is 5lb higher than last year now. May benefit for recent stable switch but a more convincing case can be made for others off this mark. 9. THE TOTHER ONE – useful hurdler but sole success over fences came in an egg and spoon race at Exeter as a novice. Has been contesting some tough races this season and although mark has now dropped ahead of return to handicaps, looks vulnerable to better treated rivals. 10. BALLABRIGGS – has been aimed at this race for some time and is one of the more polished jumpers in the field. Won the valuable Kim Muir handicap at last years Festival and still on an upward curve. Two runs over hurdles this season have protected his chase mark before the weights came out and enjoyed a solid prep run over an inadequate trip at Kelso last time. Will act on the ground and should be bang there if his stamina holds out (untried beyond 3m2f) 11. THE MIDNIGHT CLUB – looks one of the best handicapped runners in the race and has shown smart form as a novice. Beat Arbor Supreme and Oscar Time in the Bobbyjo chase at Fairyhouse last time and with Ruby Walsh taking the ride his price has shortened in the weeks leading up to the event. Will be desperately praying that the rain arrives, though. 12. NICHE MARKET – smart chaser for Bob Buckler and won the 2009 Irish National under today’s jockey Harry Skelton. Pulled up in last year’s race when out of contention but was hampered in the early stages. Has since joined Champion trainer Paul Nicholls and has seen his mark come down 8lbs for staying on one paced in the Hennessy over a trip shorter than ideal. Has had a prep run since to sharpen up his fitness, acts on the ground and is capable of going close. 13. SILVER BY NATURE – classy handicapper on his day and won valuable Haydock chase in February in emphatic fashion. He is 11lb well in on official ratings but will be desperately praying the heavens open as his best form has all been on slow ground. 14. BACKSTAGE – can be considered unlucky after being hampered by a loose horse last season (unseated rider) and races off the same mark once again. Still yet to prove he gets the trip and has only been winning weak races between the flags this season, however, acts on the ground and must be considered for shrewd handler. 15. CHIEF DAN GEORGE – only 6lb higher than when winning the William Hill trophy at Cheltenham in 2010 but his progression has stalled since. His fifth in the Scottish National (2009) hints he may last the distance and although he acts on the ground, a big leap of faith needed to back him in view of efforts this term. 16. CALGARY BAY – talented novice two seasons ago but hasn’t fulfilled that early promise subsequently and on a long losing run. Will appreciate the flat track and ground but his stamina has to be brought in to question. 17. KILLYGLEN – quirky customer that won a novices’ chase on the Mildmay course here two years ago. Another that has failed to live up to his reputation of late and comes here with a little to prove now sailing into unchartered waters with regards to trip. 18. OSCAR TIME – Won the 2009 Paddy Power Chase over 3m at Leopardstown to demonstrate his class and was second in last year’s Irish National behind Bluesea Cracker. Only 4lb higher now but has produced his best form to date with cut in the ground. 19. QUINZ – progressive novice this term that has belied his tender years and jumped well when winning the valuable Racing Post Chase in February. 9lb well in as a result and likely to be effective on his flat track but needs to prove he won’t be overawed by the big occasion in a race as unique as this. 20. BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE – dour stayer that was runner up in 2009 National Hunt Cup at Cheltenham over 4m. Showed class when filling runner up spot in Paddy Power Chase behind Majestic Concorde when last sighted and has every chance of reversing that form over this longer trip if fully wound up to go (missed prep runs due to abandonments and a minor injury). Market has spoken in his favour and one of the more interesting outsiders. 21. COMPLY OR DIE – winner of this race in 2008 and runner up twelve months later. Finished well beaten last term but has been given a huge chance by the handicapper (now 9lb lower) and not had ideal conditions this season. While his best years are seemingly behind him, he seems to come to life over these fences, on this ground, and could feasibly snatch a place. 22. QUOLIBET – difficult runner to assess as most of his form has come in France. However, pulled up in cross-country race at Cheltenham last month and his best form over shorter so can only be watched today. 23. GRAND SLAM HERO – capable chaser on his day that won valuable prize at Market Rasen in September. Fully effective on the ground and not handicapped out of this but stamina beyond 3m2f not proven and has underperformed the last twice which further tempers enthusiasm. 24. STATE OF PLAY – second in this race last year (beaten 25 lengths) and hasn’t raced since. Has no doubt had this race as his long-term target all along and reportedly goes well fresh. 3lb lower this year but assumptions would have to be made on his fitness. 25. KING FONTAINE – rapidly progressive at Haydock earlier in season but seems to have paid for those easy victories as he has been held twice since reassessment. Open to further improvement but needs to eliminate the jumping errors and taking a big step up in trip. 26. IN COMPLIANCE – useful chaser on his day and shown that ability still remains with credible efforts this term, albeit over shorter. Another that prefers softer ground though and is stepped up in trip markedly. 27. HELLO BUD – solid jumper that ran a cracker when fifth in last year’s renewal. Capitalised on easing mark to land Becher Chase over these fences earlier this term and competitively weighted as only 1lb higher than twelve months ago. Ground will be ideal and an overpriced outsider with place possibilities. 28. WEST END ROCKER – overcame lengthy absence when winning at Newbury on reappearance and followed up in valuable Warwick stayers race on testing ground thereafter. That seemed to leave a mark on him when blowing up at Haydock last time but is weighted to win more races and acts on ground; cannot be discounted if bouncing back. 29. SANTA’S SON - yet to win beyond 2m6f and stamina highly in doubt. Look elsewhere. 30. BLUESEA CRACKER – won Irish National last year and although 9lb higher now, a tough mare that jumps well and remains weighted to be competitive. Recently purchased by JP McManus but probably needs some juice in the ground to be seen to best effect. 31. THAT’S RHYTHM – stays 3m and effective on good ground but his stamina over this longer journey an unknown and questionable whether he has the class to win. 32. SURFACE TO AIR – won stamina sapping Midlands Grand National in 2008 but injuries restricted him to one run since, when bringing up the field on his recent comeback. Hard to make a sensible case for until showing he retains his old ability. 33. PIRAYA – finished midfield in last years race and looks a doubtful stayer again. 34. CAN’T BUY TIME – fourth in 4m National Hunt Cup in 2009 and effective on good ground. Well handicapped but has failed to get around the last two years and clearly a risky proposition. 35. CHARACTER BUILDING – seventh in last year’s renewal but well held. In reasonable form this year and 5lb lower so cannot be totally dismissed, but others make much stronger appeal. 36. ORNAIS –a whole lot tougher than the hunter chases he has been contesting of late and seemingly up against it as would be 17lb lower in a normal handicap chase. 37. ARBOR SUPREME – talented stayer on his day and was well supported in the build up for last year’s race only to disappoint when it mattered (unseated rider at 15th). Again, looks one of the best handicapped horses in the race but safer alternatives exist elsewhere. 38. ROYAL ROSA – finished runner up in the Becher Chase over these fences earlier in the season but isn’t getting any younger and is another inconsistent sort that is best watched. Unseated rider at 14th last year. 39. SKIPPER’S BRIG – been brought along nicely this term after gentle comeback and beat Ballabriggs in Kelso event last term. Looks well handicapped but will be doing a rain dance in the build up to the race as ideally wants it soft. 40. GOLDEN KITE – won Munster National over 3m earlier in season and useful on his day. Effective on spring ground but 10lb higher than last win and not certain to stay. Verdict The greatest steeplechase on earth promises to be as competitive as ever and the compression of the handicap means reigning champion Don’t Push It has very good claims defying the trends and landing back-to-back renewals off top weight of 11-10. 2008 winner Comply Or Die is another that has been given every chance by the assessor and now granted his ideal ground he, like Vic Venturi and Hello Bud (who have also tackled these fences previously) look capable of running big races at each-way prices, however, they are all vulnerable to something better handicapped and for win purposes it may be best to look elsewhere. The likes of The Midnight Club, Oscar Time, Silver By Nature, Bluesea Cracker and Skipper’s Brig would make more appeal if conditions deteriorated but with the ground likely to be riding good, all are passed over. Quinz and Becauseicouldntsee are lightly raced over fences but are weighted to win a big prize and look the ‘improver’ angle in the race but it may pay to side with the battle hardened NICHE MARKET who is narrowly preferred ahead of the likeable Ballabriggs on the basis of his proven stamina in the Irish National. Paul Nicholls’ charge runs off a nice racing weight of 10-13 and can finally end his trainer’s National hoodoo. West End Rocker has a little to prove after pulling up in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last month but is another with the potential to improve that must also be considered.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Grand National Thread Great work Fintron. In all my life of betting i,ve had 3 winners in the Grand National, The lengend that was Red rum 2 years on the bounce 73 & 74, and Earth summit 98. Its a very tough race and if am honest am not really a fan of it, sure all the build up is great etc but to many horses don't return on the journey home and for me thats pretty sad for the people who care for them night and day. However i will chance my luck on not a horse but a fine horseman, some members will already know i,ve always been a massive fan of Mr Paul Carberry and he rides BACKSTAGE. Trainer Gordon Elliott has always had this race in mind for Backstage and he fits the bill in running a great race should he stay clear of trouble and stay on his feet. He's a nice age for the National jumps well but as i said my small stake will be on him due to his horseman on his back. My pick for what its worth is Sir Paul Carberry riding Backstage. lets have Jockeys and animals back safe.

[Darran]

Re: Grand National Thread Not sure if its been mentioned already but VC are paying out on the first 6 home!