bowles10 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Weren't treands against the weight last year? no i had the winner after going through the trends Mileni, Ginge wants to see % which i understand however this would not necessarlily change the final opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread I think the points Ginge makes are very valid. Some on here (not Bowles or JTW) have mentioned using trends in the last few days but manipulate and twist them to suit themselves. Some are claiming the trends picked out Long Run for them yet fail to mention the trends that highlight the lack of 6 year olds winning the Gold Cup (since 1963) or the last amateur jockey to win a Gold Cup (30 yrs ago). Those stats could also be very skewed. For example, you have to find out how many 6yr olds have actually run in the Gold Cup and were they well fancied or all 100-1 outsiders. You also have to ask how many amateur jockeys have actually taken part in the Gold Cup. Stats at face value say 0 winners aged 6 in 47 years, I say how many tried Stats at face value say 0 winners ridden by an amatuer jockey in 30 years, I say how many tried I use the stats to help me make a decision but I can't write a horse off just based on one stat. Using a collection of stats is fair enough and most with trends threads do that but some of the stuff posted on here during Cheltenham by others has not been thought out properly. People just saying Denman and Kauto can't win because they are 11 years old yet not even mentioning the fact they are multiple Grade 1 winners and Denman has not been out of the first 2 at Cheltenham. I also didn't feel Denman would need soft ground but the media seemed to be peddling that about and it drifted to 9-1 at one point, it's record on good ground reads 4 wins and 3 seconds from 9 races. ;) They might be 11 yr old and came up against a very good 6 year old but regardless of age they still outperformed the younger brigade, such as What A Friend, Midnight Chase, Pandorama, Weird Al, Kempes. This is not a dig at trends analysis as I use them in accordance with form study and take notice of weights carried in certain races, it is simply saying use all the trends not just the ones that suit you and especially when used in hindsight for after eventing. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread i had long run in my final trends mate as i went with the 6yo's over the older horses, i could have left it out and stuck in What a friend only but Long Run matched up everything else and so it became a selection I just get a bit fed up that unless yopu post % the rends the meaningless, they are not, otherwise i will close my thread which is profitable ?????????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread i had long run in my final trends mate as i went with the 6yo's over the older horses, i could have left it out and stuck in What a friend only but Long Run matched up everything else and so it became a selection I just get a bit fed up that unless yopu post % the rends the meaningless, they are not, otherwise i will close my thread which is profitable ?????????? I don't think you have to post the % and I don't think Ginge was having a dig at anyone either previously. They work for you so stick with them, people clearly take a lot of interest and I read both yours and JTW's threads. It has been interesting on the flat that I've put up a horse based on form and JTW has put up a horse based on trends and we've ended up with the same horse. I think me and you both did this the other day with Holmwood Legend, you had it in your final cut and dismissed it? You were clearly on the right lines to get that in your last selections. By the way none of what I posted was aimed at you, have a read of some of the threads and you'll see what I'm on about. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread I don't think you have to post the % and I don't think Ginge was having a dig at anyone either previously. They work for you so stick with them' date=' people clearly take a lot of interest and I read both yours and JTW's threads. It has been interesting on the flat that I've put up a horse based on form and JTW has put up a horse based on trends and we've ended up with the same horse. I think me and you both did this the other day with Holmwood Legend, you had it in your final cut and dismissed it? You were clearly on the right lines to get that in your last selections. By the way none of what I posted was aimed at you, have a read of some of the threads and you'll see what I'm on about. :ok[/quote'] agreed mate, totally especially about form vs trends, they are not far away believe me I couldnt have hurricane fly yet i could understand why others would back the horse Russ advised me last year to stick to my trends, good advice so far, and intend to, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Long Run broke the GC record, so trust me Kauto and Denman ran crackers :ok There was one "trend" I didn't see, because it was on C4. There has been a piece how they teach him to jump fences the "english way". If I'd seen this, I'd probably have saved on him. Jumping around Cheltenham was the big if for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Long Run broke the GC record, so trust me Kauto and Denman ran crackers :ok There was one "trend" I didn't see, because it was on C4. There has been a piece how they teach him to jump fences the "english way". If I'd seen this, I'd probably have saved on him. Jumping around Cheltenham was the big if for me. mileni, it has jumped round twice before so why dismiss it? In the RSA last year perhaps just too inexperienced? In the Paddy power, perhaps they let Little Josh go too early? Perhaps Long run needed the run? What we should never dismiss is the fact that Cheltenham experience counts - Pandorama / Kempes? not for me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread He didn't jump well in the RSA, nor in the Paddy Power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Pandorama hated ground. Kempes is flat bred :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Pandorama hated ground. Kempes is flat bred :D ask why people backed them then? For me only 4 horses could win that race and they finished 1-2-3-4, IC was not right, NTD should have pulled it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread He didn't jump well in the RSA' date=' nor in the Paddy Power.[/quote'] i didnt think he jumped particularly well on the 1st circuit, wasnt too fluent over those early fences and worried me a little Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread I backed Kempes, because he is stone better on good ground and I thought the old guard is opposable + Long Run jumping around Chelt was a worry. Obviously what I couldn't predict was that Kempes wouldn't handle Cheltenham. Pandorama is a mudlark, it's obvious. I thought his case was the worst of all. For Kempes there was an angle though. Course form is overrated for me. So many horses come and run their first races at the festival. Especially the irish handicappers. At the end the best horse wins. Either the classiest in the grade events, or the best handicapped one in the handicaps (most of the time). Rubi Light in Ryanair for example. I would never be put off by no Cheltenham form, when clearly Rubi Light is progressive and comes with as good a chance as Noble Prince on the irish form. Or in the handicaps Sir Des Champs, who I made probably at least stone well in coming at Chelt after only 2 runs. That's how I look at the races though. For me it's always the unexposed and progressive horses rather than the course specialists. There are winners to be had in both camps of course. Some people can't spot the improvers. Osieau De Nuit and Buena Vista were brilliant bets and a strong case could have been made, but they'd never be my pick. Way too exposed for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Anyway, thought this was a Grand National thread?:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Anyway' date=' thought this was a Grand National thread?:unsure[/quote'] You gotta love or hate the trends, mate. There's no 3rd choice :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Anyway' date=' thought this was a Grand National thread?:unsure[/quote'] 100% BH or is that 70% GN, 30% crap :eek onto the matter in hand, i shall start my studying for Aintree now as normally leave it a bit late Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread How about an amateur jockey for the Gold Cup/Grand National double - SWC on Oscar Time has a great chance and is my big winner at the moment :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread How about an amateur jockey for the Gold Cup/Grand National double - SWC on Oscar Time has a great chance and is my big winner at the moment :ok Sam likes Aintree also, has won a few there over the years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Don't you think Oscar Time is bad value? He faces a tough task to reverse form with The Midnight Club and Arbor Supreme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Don't you think Oscar Time is bad value? He faces a tough task to reverse form with The Midnight Club and Arbor Supreme. Arbor Supreme was my dark horse for last season and was going well when falling last year. 10st 3lb looks very interesting this year considering its cracking run LTO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Perhaps, but im on at bigger prices. The Midnight Club looks a worthy favourite. like Arbor, Backstage is another who was going well when brought down last year. He is a big player, despite his unconventional prep. He wouldnt be great value at the prices either though. Value? In Compliance maybe? look at his pedigree - Old Vic and Montelimar in there,, which are historically excellent for the GN. Character Building has had a much better prep than when finishing 7th last year after an interupted prep last year and is an attractive price. The Tother One has been staying on in all of his races, which bodes well but has jumping issues. A staying on 4th in the hennessy cant be ignored and if he gets round should be involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Stan James are now going NRNB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread The Tother One can't jump. What I meant was Oscar Time is 14/1 only because of connections. I'd rather get 12/1 on TMC, who is improving and will probably confirm form with OT 9 times out of 10. Or Arbor Supreme, who beat him fair and square off level weights and will receive quite a bit in April. Glad they run actually. I feared OT as a dark horse in the race, but I'm not worried at all now. Of course he can improve for trip and better ground, but he's very bad value for me at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esox Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Backed 3 already in Ballabriggs 25/1. The other 2 are Synchronised and West Enf Rocker at 25s and 33s respectfully and I think those two are now bigger prices. At the time they fitted trends asdie form weights not having come out I still think they are all in the mix and Ballabriggs has a great chance. West End Rocker PU LTO but conditions may not have suited. Synchronised has a fair bit of weight but still has claims, and jumps and stays I will look before the race with final decs but will likely stick with these now Ballabriggs gets my vote also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Why is Synchronised 40s with Skybet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Stan James are now going NRNB. Stan James and Bet365 are now both NRNB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Why is Synchronised 40s with Skybet? 90% a non-runner after running at the weekend, mate. He'll hate the ground anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Have backed What a Friend at 16/1. Annoyed I didn't take the 24s available last night on Betfair but I still think 16s is a decent price. Cracking run in the Gold Cup and Jacob has been confirmed to keep the ride. Hopefully Nicholls will have his first winner in the race next month. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread I think WAF will run well, but just have that slight worry he could be another of those My Will types, who run well in the Gold Cup and finish 4th, 5th, 6th in the National. A lot classier than My Will on paper tho, so we'll wait and see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Backstage & Ballabrigs - Good Ground horses Stand a very good chance right weight and recent runs with good place positions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread I was looking at the weights earlier to see who will and won't make the cut. After his Kim Muir second, Faasel, a previous Aintree winner, interested me at 600.0 (on Betdaq) but it seems he is unlikely to make the cut off 137. Looking at the spread of weight for the last few years Top weight OR ----> Bottom Weight OR (spread of lb across field) 2010: 158 ----> 139 (19lb) 2009: 158 ----> 139 (19lb) 2008: 156 ----> 137 (19lb) 2007: 158 ----> 134 (24lb) 2006: 156 ----> 134 (22lb) This year the top weight is Don't Push It (OR 160) so those probably down to Arbor Supreme (OR 139) should all get in. Tricky Trickster and Snowy Morning are all ready 'doubtful' and Deep Purple (810.0), Synchronised (110.0) and Midnight Chase (220.0) all look like they might swerve the race if the exchange prices are anything to go by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.