Grand National Thread

[richard-westwood]

Re: Grand National Thread im happy with my bets .......im going for disneyland paris hols ,the missus has decided she wants chief dan george £5 e.w 33/1 for a new bag!!! .......1st daughter is on killyglen and the other on ballabriggs .......so naturally we've all done money when they fall at the first and you get that sinking feeling knowing you not even going to get a run ....lol:cry

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National Thread A bloke at work was telling me that last year he backed King Johns Castle (refused to run) and Erics Charm (fell at the first). :lol

[Quackers]

Re: Grand National Thread I am having a pretty large bet on Backstage. The horse was still travelling well when brought down by a loose horse last year at the 20th fence. Think ever since last year's race this has always been the plan for the horse. Gordon Elliot is a great trainer and this could be his time. After having his first Cheltenham winners this year, I feel he has a real great chance with this horse if putting in a clear round and staying out of trouble. The horse gets in the race off the same mark as last year and has been kept racing fit in point to points in which he has won with minimum fuss.

[diamond1924]

Re: Grand National Thread i had a pretty large bet on Backstage last year mate, the National was the plan last year too, they protected his mark then too running over hurdles and p2ps,. it's all about luck in running which he didn't have last year. I'll be having a bet on Backstage too (and Big Fella), he obviously took to it and should be there abouts if getting the rub of the green. There is a fairytale cameo angle for the Beeb to sploogefest on for Paul Carberry too, he was on top of King John's Castle last year when the grey refused. ;)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Grand National Thread due to new horses getting in the shortlist has a new addition .... killyglen chief dan george niche market ballybriggs and now golden kite has made the shortlist off 10-2 !!!!

[fintron]

Re: Grand National Thread The importance of staying form cannot be underestimated in the National. Here are the last 20 winners and their strongest piece of staying form..... 2010 Dont Push It - 2nd in chase over extended 3m3f 2009 Mon Mome - 2nd in Welsh National 2008 Comply Or Die - Eider winner 2007 Silver Birch - Welsh National winner 2006 Numbersixvalverde - Won Irish National 2005 Hedgehunter - Won Grand National trial chase over 3m4f 2004 Amberleigh House - 3rd in preceding Grand National 2003 Monty's Pass - Won Kerry National 2002 Bindaree - Third in Welsh National 2001 Red Marauder - Won a 3m handicap hurdle 2000 Papillon - Second in Irish National 1999 Bobbyjo -Won Irish National 1998 Earth Summit - Won Welsh National 1997 Lord Gyllene - 2nd in Midlands National 1996 Rough Quest - 2nd in Hennessy (extended 3m2f) 1995 Royal Athlete - Won Chase over extended 3m3f 1994 Miinnehoma - 3rd in Welsh National 1992 Party Politics - 2nd in Welsh National 1991 Seagram - Won a 4m handicap chase 1990 Mr Frisk - Won 3m5f handicap chase The Welsh National and Irish National, unsurprisingly look key trials. With that in mind, horses like Silver By Nature, Oscar Time, Bluesea Cracker and Niche Market must surely form part of any short list and a betting decision be made on who has the class to win, who jumps, who acts on good or good to soft ground and, not to be forgotten, who looks feasibly weighted... Good luck everyone :ok

[Quackers]

Re: Grand National Thread Hey Richard I am curious as to where Backstage fails in the trends that you have put up?

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Grand National Thread Darn it, looks like ALWAYS WAINING is just going t miss out sitting at 44 :\ will most likely go for the Topham on Friday. Real shame that as i would love to see the horse have ago at the big one.

[Hotpot Kid]

Re: Grand National Thread Not wishing to go against a popular choice on here but Niche Market fails this fairly important statistic in terms of preparation... * Exposed horses struggle with under 4 runs that season * They have a 1-184 record in 75 Similar races * The only winner was Grey Abbey - 2000 Scottish National * I would demand at least 4 runs a year from exposed horses * The Following Horses all fail this important statistic * BALLABRIGGS - STATE OF PLAY - HELLO BUD * BACKSTAGE - CHIEF DAN GEORGE - SILVER BY NATURE * NICHE MARKET - OSCAR TIME * BLUESEA CRACKER - ARBOR SUPREME * Other horses that fail this statistic are as follows * Ballytrim -Faasel - Dev - Starzaan - Toby Jug * Comply Or Die - Frankie Figg - Junior - Royal Rosa I will be backing Character Building who has had a better preparaton this time round, has done the distance last year, has never fallen and is twice the price of last year. Just my opinion though. Incidentally State of Play fails the above statistic also but I wouldn't put anyone off backing a horse that has come 3rd and 4th the last two years and is known for running well when fresh.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National Thread My Preview: Aintree 4:15 JOHN SMITH'S GRAND NATIONAL 4m1f 1. 1-P070 Don't Push It (23 days) 11 11-10 (CD) Jonjo O'Neil 160 Now on 7 lbs higher mark for 5 length 2010 success (153), from Black Appalachi, State Of Play 10-11 well beaten 3^rd. Trainer in excellent form at the time. Don't Push It goes in to race in better form than last year. 10^th of 23 Pertemps (3m) Hurdle, outpaced before staying on. Often made mistakes and inconsistent over conventional fences, yet took well to Aintree. Fact no top weight has won since Red Rum is a coincidence. If both first 11-5 and second 11-6 had carried top weight of 11-10 last year; 20 lengths back to third suggests they'd still finish 1^st and 2nd. Top weights have a good strike rate of placing. Ground was good last year, probably equally effective on soft. A P McCoy 2. 4-3226 Tidal Bay (22 days) 10 11-9 Howard Johnson 159 6^th in Gold Cup is fair form, but again looked irresolute. Dropping himself out before staying on passed beaten rivals. Flattered second to Imperial Commander in Betfair Chase, out the back when winning rider went for home in earnest a long way from home. Tidal Bay is temperamental and unlikely to take to Aintree. Not sure to stay the trip, but laziness will help in that respect. B Hughes 3. U-7744 Vic Venturi (23 days) 11 11-6 © Dessie Hughes (Irish trained) 156 12 lengths behind The Midnight Club in Bobbyjo (3 m) Chase last time. Under sustained pressure some way out and outpaced. Won 2009 Becher Chase (3m2f), but failed all three attempts at 3m5f+, twice in Irish National. Out of contention when unseated Grand National. Looks Exposed. A Lynch 4. 11-524 What A Friend (22 days) 8 11-6 Paul Nicholls 156 Well-handicapped. 4^th in Gold Cup under Saturday's rider Darryl Jacob, showing more enthusiasm than usual in first time blinkers. Threw away winning chance in AON chase time before, found little and hung in behind winner. Won twice at this meeting. Doubts remain if headgear will work second time and/or if he'll take to these unique fences. Needs holding up until the last moment. D Jacob 5. 2/1-31 Majestic Concorde (101 days) 8 11-5 Dermott Weld (Irish) 155 Jumped well when winning Paddy Power Chase (good) at Leopardstown (Dec 29^th) on his first try at 3 miles, unraced since but runs well fresh. Pace wasn't good there and won through speed. Though judged by his flat career, 4^th in Chester Cup, has plenty of stamina. Probably equally effective on soft and good going. Lightly raced and could improve again. Mr R McNamara 6. 42F14 Or Noir De Somoza (132 days) 9 11-5 David Pipe 155 Ex-French. Off 8 months prior to only previous run for Pipe yard, at inadequate trip of 2m1f. 22 lengths 4^th of 5 to Master Minded in 09 Victor Chandler. Better than that. Won Grade 2 Prix Georges in 09 (2m6f); 4^th of 9 (trained by C Avert) to top French horse Rubi Ball in same race last time. Won listed chase penultimate start. Raced almost exclusively on a soft surface. 3m+ form figures read F97F. Sire produced stayer Poker De Sivola, but dam won hurdle at only 1m7f. T Scudamore 7. F24-41 Dooneys Gate (65 days) 10 11-4 Willie Mullins (Irish) 154 Won Kilcash Chase (2 ½m) Clonmel, made most under trainer's son last time out. Ran well, mistake 3 out over these fences in Topham Chase to be 4^th off 9 lbs lower mark than Saturday (improved since). Stays 3 miles, but unlikely to get 4 ½. Effective on good and heavy ground. Mr P W Mullins 8. -2F44 Big Fella Thanks (35 days) 9 11-1 Ferdy Murphy 151 In truth never run to his best when going in to two Grand Nationals a well-handicapped horse. Stamina doubts remain. Now off 5 lbs higher mark than when 4^th as favourite last term (146), after improved run in Greatwood at Newbury. Fair 4^th in same race off 149 last time. Poor finisher, often cruising over final fence only to find little. Jumping not yet as good for new yard this season. G Lee 9. 05-244 The Tother One (70 days) 10 11-0 Paul Nicholls 150 Well-handicapped on 4^th in Hennessey Gold Cup off a mark 6 lbs higher than on Saturday. Trip should not be a problem. However, is a poor jumper, inconsistent, temperamental and with a poor strike rate since novice hurdle days. Highly unlikely to take to this test. Mr R Mahon 10. 11-112 Ballabriggs (35 days) 10 11-0 Donald McCain 150 On short-list since winning Fulke Walwyn at Cheltenham Festival in 2010, upped 10 lbs for that. In clear lead over the last before tied up badly, just got home (3m1½f). Value more than winning distances. Again found less than expected when beaten at Kelso last time (2¾m). Has a good win to run ratio and usually jumps well. Trained by son of Ginger McCain of Red Rum fame. J Maguire 11. 133-21 The Midnight Club(45 days) 10 10-13 Willie Mullins (Irish) 149 On pure form not especially well-handicapped. However, breeding and style of running suggest he's capable of considerably better over further. Never nearer 3^rd in both Spa Hurdle (3m) and Jewson Handicap (2m5f) at Cheltenham Festival. Outpaced before staying on best of all each occasion. By Flemensfirth, sire of Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert, King John's Castle (2^nd in National). Out of 3 mile winner from family of Toby Tobias. Unlucky 2^nd Thyestes Chase, then won Bobbyjo (3m). Travelled and jumped well, idled run-in and better than distances indicate. Stable mate Arbor Supreme now 10 lbs better off for just length beating. Equally effective on soft and good. R Walsh 12. 9P-F58Niche Market(35 days) 10 10-13 Paul Nicholls 149 Ideal Grand National type. Won 09 Irish National (3m5f) under H Skelton. Trained by Bob Buckler prior to this season. Dropped 7 lbs since placed for second time in Hennessey Gold Cup. 5^th off 156, 3^rd off 148 in 09. Despite reappearance fall usually jumps well, best on good or good-soft ground. Disappointed in Grand National when then trainer out of form and hold up tactics used; usually races prominently. Had wind operation prior to last run and trainer has excellent record with such horses. 8^th in Greatwood Chase last time came over wholly inadequate trip of 2 ½ miles. H Skelton 13. 21-071Silver By Nature(49 days) 9 10-12 Lucinda Russell 148 Well-handicapped. Easy 15 length winner of Haydock National Trial (3½ miles, soft), off 1 lb higher mark (149). Runner-up Ballyfitz franked form with 2^nd in Midlands National. Slightly rounded action and form indicate preference for a soft surface. However, trainer's other half Peter Scudamore believes it's just a need for a test. Sire Silver Patriarch won St Leger (good-firm) and grand dam Dalkey Sound 2^nd Scottish National (good). Every chance more to come at 4½m. Jumps well. Seeks to be first grey and Scottish winner since Nicholas Silver and Rubstic. P Buchannan 14. 57011 Backstage(34 days, point) 9 10-12 Gordon Elliott (Irish) 148 Well backed for this after small Point to point win in Ireland. Trained by up and coming and 07 (Silver Birch) National winning trainer. Connections believe best on sound surface. Encouragingly, travelled well in Grand National before brought down 20^th fence last year (same mark as Saturday). 3m1f winner. Dam more a speed influence and not certain to get significantly further. P Carberry 15. 1-753F Chief Dan George (25 days) 11 10-12 James Moffatt 148 6 lbs higher mark than when winning 2010 William Hill (Spinal Research) Handicap Chase (3m½f good); fell in this year's race. Not looked in same form so far this season. Inconsistent profile, but possibly best in the Spring nowadays. Only 4 lbs better off with Ballabriggs for 8 length beating at Kelso. 5^th in 2009 Scottish Grand National (4m) implies he'll stay this trip. P Aspell 16. 56242 Calgary Bay (70 days) 8 10-10 Henrietta Knight 146 One of best looking horses in training. Good 2^nd to Wishfull Thinking (2m5f good-soft) off 143 last time. Jumped well but found little. Best performance to win Doncaster handicap (3m good-firm) by 7 lengths off 142. Unlikely stayer, took hold and didn't get home 2010 Gold Cup (3m2½f). H Frost 17. P-2536 Killyglen (35 days) 9 10-10 Stuart Crawford (Irish) 146 Ex-English top novice for Howard Johnson, won Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree (3m1f good-soft). Also ran well to be 2^nd to Wogan in 2010 Grimthorpe (3m2f good-firm). Well-handicapped on that form. Changed stables and yet to prove as good; bit free in same race, weakened in straight last time, 6^th of 8 finishers. Possibly needs to lead / view of the front to jump fences well and maintain enthusiasm. Inconsistent. Best runs on good-firm to good-soft. D O'Regan 18. 52-263 Oscar Time (45 days) 10 10-9 Martin Lynch (Irish) 145 First race for 7 weeks, travelled well long way, 3^rd to The Midnight Club in Bobbyjo. Now 4 lbs better off for 5 length beating. Fitness possibly played a part but often finds little. No need for pressure to win Irish Paddy Power (3m). Upped 17 lbs, looked Irish National (3m5f) winner on turn for home. Length down at last yet lost another 3½ on short run-in. Plenty of stamina in dam's pedigree, however most of sire Oscar's progeny don't need a test. Oscar Time is certainly not crying out for a trip. Raced mainly on a soft surface. Jumps well. Jockey trying two feats, first winning amateur since Marcus Armytage on Mr Frisk and Gold Cup / National double. Mr S Whaley-Cohen 19. 0-1131 Quinz (42 days) 7 10-8 Philip Hobbs 144 Racing Post Chase winner (3m soft), looked beaten as Mount Oscar came upsides, fought back and going away again at line. Progressive and well-handicapped if form can be believed, almost every other runner error prone. 7 year old but French breds mature quicker. More experience than most novices, mistakes all three chase starts last season. Only loss this term behind Time For Rupert. Jumps far better nowadays, possibly needs to race prominently to continue to do so. Winner on good-firm and soft. Should get further than 3m but another 1½m is questionable. R Johnson 20. 508423 Northern Alliance (44 days) 10 10-8 Tony Martin (Irish) 144 Trainer had excellent record in major handicaps, but the Handicapper rarely takes chances with his runners nowadays. Dropped just 3 lbs since 8^th of 12 finishers in Paddy Power (2m5f Good) in December. Last win in 09 Kerry National (3m Good-soft). Well below form last time, 19 lengths behind In Compliance. Raced from 2 to 3 miles, unlikely stayer. B Geraghty 21. 212-42Becauseicouldntsee(101 days) 8 10-8 Noel Glynn (Irish) 144 Not seen since late December. Now 2lbs better off with Majestic Concorde for a 2½ length beating when second in Irish Paddy Power (3m soft). Just one mistake of note in National Hunt Chase (4m Good) at Cheltenham as a novice last year. Every reason to believe will be better than ever returned to an extreme trip and is built for Aintree. Lively outsider. D Russell 22. 00-06P Comply Or Die (42 days) 12 10-8 (CD) David Pipe 144 2008 Winner and runner up in 2009. Nowhere near that form, 12^th of 14 finishers off a mark of 153 in 2010. Obviously trained for this, but no real promise in three starts this term. Pulled up in almost unraceable ground in Eider Chase last time. Best blinkered, on good or good-soft. Likes to race prominently / have some room. Veteran and probably on the downgrade. T Murphy 23. FF25P Quolibet (25 days) 7 10-8 Jonjo O'Neil 144 50/1 pulled up only British start in Cross-Country Chase at Cheltenham last time. 5^th penultimate start, trained by Francois Doumen; 6 lbs better off for just 2 lengths behind Or Noir De Somoza in (2¾m heavy). Poor strike rate, unproven over further and had three falls in a row. M P Walsh 24. 1FP18P Grand Slam Hero (63 days) 10 10-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 143 Fruitful summer campaign, won all four completed starts including Summer Plate. Still looked on upgrade after final success (August, 3m1½f). Now off 5 lbs higher mark. Never jumping with any fluency in two well spaced out races since. Possibly something physically wrong. A Coleman 25. 454-P6 Roll Along (49 days) 11 10-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 143 Thrown in on best form of 2008 /09. Won at Ascot (3m good) and 24 lengths 6^th to Kauto Star in Gold Cup (good-soft). Nowhere near as good since. Travelled well before weakening badly straight (3m) last time out off same mark as Saturday. Looks increasingly temperamental. W Hutchinson 26. 44/P3- State Of Play (364 days) 11 10-6 Evan Williams 142 Placed in two Grand Nationals, not seen since but great record fresh. Dropped 3 lbs for finishing 3^rd he might seem well treated. However, 4^th off a mark of 150, then 3^rd from 145; and now only 10 lbs better off with Don't Push It for 25 length beating. Trainer considers him best on a sound surface although won 2006 Hennessey on softish ground. Probably only place prospects again. P Maloney 27. 1-11P5 King Fontaine (25 days) 8 10-6 Malcom Jefferson 142 Several jumping errors last two starts. Only 5^th off 2 lbs better mark in Spinal Research Chase, 32 lengths behind winner Bensalem. Pulled up in another big field (3½m). Not many sired by King's Theatre are true stayers. Upped 13 lbs since last win. Proven on heavy and good going. D O'Regan 28. 341U In Compliance (20 days) 11 10-5 Dessie Hughes (Irish) 141 By Old Vic, sire of first two home in 2010 and dam's sire Montelimar responsible for Hedgehunter. However, weakened late over furthest he's tackled so far, 3m1f, in 2007 Punchestown Gold Cup (best season to race). Well fancied for 2007 Gold Cup before injury. On downgrade. Unseated last time, not first mistake. First time blinkered, easy lead to win penultimate start (2m2f soft). L Aspell 29. 75P-1P Hello Bud (84 days) 13 10-5 © Nigel Twiston-Davies 141 Age statistics are against him, but unlike most teenagers was still improving at 11, so age is not as big a worry. Won 09 Scottish National (4m Good-firm) off 133. Successful again off same mark in Becher Chase (3¼m Heavy) in November. Looked weak race for the money and 8 lb rise bit harsh. 5^th in Grand National, off just 1 lb lower (140) than Saturday. Pulled up in Classic Chase last time out. Races up with pace and sometimes finds less than expected off the bridle. S Twiston-Davies 30. 07-11P West End Rocker (49 days) 9 10-5 Alan King 141 Acted on soft to win Classic Chase at Warwick (3m5f). Upped 8 lbs for ¾ length victory over Minella Boys with 8 back to Incentivise, idled and more in hand than distances indicate. Has action which suggests will be at least as good on a sound surface. Possibly lost action and quickly pulled up on heavy last time out. Lightly raced stayer, lively outsider if all is well with him. R Thornton 31. 207710 Santa's Son (22 days) 11 10-5 Howard Johnson 141 Appeared back to some form with this trainer, won 2½m hurdle penultimate start. Possibly amiss, 100/1 16^th of 18 in Grand Annual (2m½f) last time. Often sulks if unable to lead. Won on soft and firm surface. No win in 7 attempts at 3m+ earlier in career, unraced at trip since 2007. J Moore 32. 21-046 Bluesea Cracker (45 days) 9 10-4 James Motherway (Irish) 140 Trying to become first of her sex to win since Nickel Coin in 1951. Recently purchased by JP McManus. Off 13 weeks prior to last of 6 finishers final start. Every chance before turn and heavily eased after chance had gone in Bobbyjo (3m). Fair 4^th at Cheltenham in November (3m3f½f good-soft) penultimate start. Improved form, won Irish National last season (3m5f heavy), finding much more than runner-up Oscar Time who is 5 lbs better off for 4½ lengths. Stayers on both sides of pedigree, including Grand National runner-up (to Grittar) Hard Outlook. Could improve further back up in trip. Raced almost exclusively on a soft surface. A McNamara 33. 391059That's Rhythm (120 days) 11 10-4 Martin Todhunter 140 In and out of form. Disappointing 9^th in December, possible physical problem. Fair 14 lengths 5^th in Charlie Hall penultimate start. Bangor specialist, all 3 wins there, latest by 9 lengths off 133 3m½f good-soft. Also effective firm surface. Fallen in last two Scottish Nationals. 34. 2111/0 Surface To Air (27 days) 10 10-4 Chris Bealby 140 Progressive form before reportedly suffered a tendon injury when winning 4 mile Summer National in June 08 (third win in succession). First run since then, last of 10 in handicap hurdle at Market Rasen. Impossible to know if he's still got any ability. Form on good and good-soft. T Messenger 35. 234PP Piraya (23 days) 8 10-4 David Pipe 140 Back to his recalcitrant days, pulled up in Byrne Group Handicap last time out. Good placed efforts earlier in season, 2^nd to Woolcombe Folly at 2m1f and 3^rd to Mount Oscar at 2½ miles. Yet to run to form at 3 miles plus in Britain, despite many tries. 13^th of 14 finishers in Grand National. J Farrelly 36. F-8P5PCan't Buy Time(23 days) 9 10-4 Jonjo O'Neil 140 Lightly raced. Bad mistake and pulled up last time out in Fulke Walwyn. Best start this term when 6¼ lengths 5^th off 142 to Tartak in 2m5f handicap at Cheltenham in January. Winner of same race off 141 in 2010. Unseated and fell in two Grand Nationals. Travelled well long way, failed to stay when favourite, 4^th in 09 National Hunt Chase. Winner on soft and good. Inconsistent. R McLernon 37. 30563 Character Building (35 days) 11 10-4 John Quinn 140 Balls of steel needed, won 09 Fulke Walwyn (3m1½f good-soft) off 139, led on line. Pulls himself up in front and inconsistent. 7^th (off 145) in Grand National, made up a lot of places on final circuit and now off 5 lb lower mark. 12 lbs better off with Don't Push It for 36 lengths. Fair 14 length 3^rd off 135 last time (3m2f good). Should be suited by a return to further. Could we have a real National Velvet in the year of Elizabeth Taylor's death? Ms Nina Carberry 38. 51P/52 Ornais (36 days) 9 10-4 Paul Nicholls 140 Good novice in 07/08, difficult to know how much ability retains. Nowhere near best in 2 hunter chases on first starts for 2 years, latest at Newbury (2m6½f). Runs with a low head carriage (long neck). Stamina doubts, only 5^th when had form to win 4 mile 08 National Hunt Chase. N Scholfield 39. 2U-9P2 Arbor Supreme (45 days) 9 10-3 Willie Mullins (Irish) 139 Well-handicapped. Length 2^nd to The Midnight Club in Bobbyjo Chase. Oscar Time 4 lengths, Vic Venturi 7, and Bluesea Cracker 20 lengths back. Yet is respectively 10, 6, 12 and 1 lb better off with all of them. Rider cajoled an effort out of Arbor Supreme, never going for “everything”. Seemed less than willing in the past, best handled tenderly. Did not take to Aintree last year, already beaten when unseating at the Chair. Inconsistent. Stays at least 3¾ miles, acts on good and heavy. D Casey 40. 13111- Our Monty (510 days) 8 10-3 Willie Mullins (Irish) 139 Progressive young chaser when last seen in November 09. Last win in slowly run Cork “Grand National” (3½m heavy) in effortless style by 5½ lengths. Also successful on firm surface. Well (flat) bred, by Monjeu out of Cambridgeshire (1m1½f) winner She's Our Mare, who's by St Leger victor Commanche Run. Our Monty is not sure to stay 4½m. Ruby Walsh's sister rides. Ms Katy Walsh ----------------------------- 41. 5U-42P Royal Rosa (91 days) 12 10-3 Howard Johnson 139 Lightly raced, poorly handicapped veteran. Pulled up as if something troubling him last time in Welsh National. Placed for second time in Becher (3¼m), 1¼ lengths 2^nd. Strangely now 3 lbs worse off with winner Hello Bud, off just 125. Unseated in Grand National. 33 lengths 6^th from 18 lbs out of weights in 08 Scottish National. Possibly best on soft surface. Inconsistent. P Gallagher 42. 13-3011 Skippers Brig (35 days) 10 10-2 Nicky Richards 138. Upset one of the ante-post Grand National favourites, and now 8 lbs better off with Ballabriggs after beating him 1¾ lengths at Kelso (2¾m good-soft) last time. Obviously 4½m is a different proposition, but Skippers Brig is proven at a stiff 3 miles and bred to get further. Sire Zaffaran a stayer, dam unraced half sister to 3m1f winner Skippers Cleuch and dam's sire Roselier a massive stamina influence. Skippers Brigg is lightly raced and capable of improvement. Possibly needs it on the soft side and unbeaten on heavy. Interesting outsider if getting a run. D Elsworth 43. 1d10019 Golden Kite (27 days) 9 10-2 Adrian Maguire 138 Prolific winner of 7 of his last 14 starts. Improved to win Munster “National” (only 3m, good) penultimate start, making all off 128. First start since when disappointing 9^th of 14 finishers (2m7f heavy) over hurdles on March 13^th, should come on for the run. Already outstayed pedigree, By Anshan out of a mare by Strong Gale. Best on goodish ground. S Hassett 44. 006704 Always Waining (16 days) 10 10-2 © Peter Bowen 138 17 lengths 4^th (3m good) over hurdles last time, March 24^th. 2010 Topham winner (2m5½f Good) off a 10 lb lower mark (128). Now 12 lbs worse off with 2^nd Scotsirish for 12 lengths. 4^th in same race in 09 and 6^th off 137 in Grand Sefton (heavy) this season. Would have finished closer but for one bad mistake. All 3 races over National fences. Winner at 3m1f, failed both starts at 4m+. T O'Brien Verdict after final decs.

[LongRun]

Re: Grand National Thread I am going Northern Alliance win, check out his run behind Chapoturgeon in 09'

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Grand National Thread Timmy Murphy reporting Comply Or Die to be in great form. Certainly weighted to run a massive race if still got his spark. Showed a bit more at Warwick and then I actually thought he ran well in the Eider under the circumstances. Carrying a big weight (nearly a stone to the winner) on ridiculous ground, jumped well and ran a big race for a long way. Started feeling the pinch with 1 to go in the back straight. Kept going better than some, and may have grabbed 3rd if he finished. Still got an engine clearly. I think he'll get round, whether it's in his own time we'll have to wait and see, but I wouldn't rule out a big run. Considering he's had to give lumps of weight away in heavy ground in two marathon chases - and has run well for a long way gives me hope. Carrying 11-12 there, but 10-8 on Saturday, I wouldn't be writing him off. Hadn't shown any form before running 2nd in 2009 (though didn't run over any marathon trips) In fact, that Warwick run was highly promising. Jumped brilliantly out in front and was only headed as they made their way for home. Gradually weakened until he made an error at the 2nd last (I think it was) and stopped quickly after that. Very live outsider for me...

[jockmc]

Re: Grand National Thread chief dan george ew first 5 for me 33/1:cheers "He is top on Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed Ratings and he's about a stone well in.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National Thread

chief dan george ew first 5 for me 33/1:cheers

Any reasoning why? :welcome

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National Thread

I am going Northern Alliance win' date=' check out his run behind Chapoturgeon in 09'[/quote'] A bit more reasoning, please. We don't want War & Peace, but just few lines what makes you fancy the particular horse and so on. :welcome too :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National Thread Not looking great for the mudlarks http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/342?&search=liverpool&itemsPerPage=10&region=uk

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National Thread

Not looking great for the mudlarks http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/342?&search=liverpool&itemsPerPage=10&region=uk

No, Synchronized and Notre Pere are out of it because of that. Silver By Nature also way too underpriced for this ground. Ground is g/s good in places at the moment and thankfully there was rain last night. It'll be nice if the ground is genuinely good on the day without watering.

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National Thread I've layed off most of my profit on Silver By Nature so i hope it doesnt pour down now!!

[hereforthep]

Re: Grand National Thread hey does anybody have a full list of the horses with the numbers many thanks

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National Thread A bit of rain last night has eased it to soft side of good to soft. With the next days dry, it'll probably dry out to dead side of good for Saturday, which would be ideal.

[Evertonboy]

Re: Grand National Thread Morning, With a field of 40 runners I thought it was the perfect time to try out my race profiling method. (Taken from Racecaller.com)

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 8 to 11 (9 or 10 especially) · Carrying 10-11 or more · Carrying no more than a stone higher than bottom weight · Officially rated 140 or higher · Irish bred · Won no more than once this season · Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+ · Won over 3M+ · Run 4 to 6 times since September & run since 15th February · Run in at least 10 chases (winning 3 to 5) · Posted an RPR of 140+ in one of last 3 chase starts · Run over hurdles in 2011 · Previously run over National fences · Placed in an Irish/Welsh/Scottish/Aintree National · Trained in Ireland

Using the above, Ive been a little flexible so perhaps not all the trends above have been met, I have the following shortlist and made the following notes: Big Fella Thanks Goes on good ground or softer, performed well at Aintree, stayed on last time out, jumps ok - UR mistakes can be forgiven, likes a big field, won off 146 against similar rated horses, 4th last year of 146 but 2lb lighter, 6th year before of 149 with 11st, trainer form poor, ran over national fences. *The only thing putting me off is that this year he carries more weight and runs off a higher rating than in his previous 2 nationals, i'd like to hear other peoples thoughts on this matter* Ballabriggs Would probably prefer good ground but has won on soft, runs best Jan- March- so perhaps this comes 1 month to late, running well, odd jumping mistake, field size no prob, running of highest ever mark in a handicap, trainer form average. Silver By Nature The softer going the better, best performances in winter mud, running well, jumps well, likes big fields, won of 149 against lower rated but won of 143 against higher, trainer form good Cheif Dan George Good or gd-sft, running ok, jumps ok, big fields no prob, ranwell of 148 with similar weight, performs best late winter spring, trainer form poor, ran at aintree but never over national fences Killyglen Prefer good ground but will act on heavy, running poorly, jumps ok, midfield when ran of same rating but top weight, spring horse, trainer form good, won at aintree on mildmay course Any thoughts?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National Thread

*The only thing putting me off is that this year he carries more weight and runs off a higher rating than in his previous 2 nationals, i'd like to hear other peoples thoughts on this matter*

He couldn't win it off lower marks, how is he gonna win it off higher? And not just that, I think he doesn't stay the trip plain and simple. Barry Geraghty went for him after AP McCoy on Don't Push It. Traveled best and didn't see it out. One of the worst values this year imo.

[NewPunter]

Re: Grand National Thread Have been to Aintree before but never for a national meeting; been persauded to go on the Friday for a lass I knows birthday. Is it going to be as crowded and as hard to get a drink etc as I imagine?

[richard-westwood]

Re: Grand National Thread for the person that asked .....i think backstage makes the final 10 shortlist now but fails in my book on genuine chase experience (12 runs ) although hes not far off about 9 i think so i suppose he still has a good chance but im looking for horses with exactly the same stats as previous winners

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National Thread

for the person that asked .....i think backstage makes the final 10 shortlist now but fails in my book on genuine chase experience (12 runs ) although hes not far off about 9 i think so i suppose he still has a good chance but im looking for horses with exactly the same stats as previous winners

And what about pointing experience? Horses like The Midnight Club and Backstage have plenty pointing runs. You can't say they are inexperienced.

[Esox]

Re: Grand National Thread

Have been to Aintree before but never for a national meeting; been persauded to go on the Friday for a lass I knows birthday. Is it going to be as crowded and as hard to get a drink etc as I imagine?

In a word Yes, Thursday is a better day to attend in my opinion, plenty of other distractions if the racing isnt going your way also :D

[Hotpot Kid]

Re: Grand National Thread

Silver By Nature The softer going the better, best performances in winter mud, running well, jumps well, likes big fields, won of 149 against lower rated but won of 143 against higher, trainer form good Killyglen Prefer good ground but will act on heavy, running poorly, jumps ok, midfield when ran of same rating but top weight, spring horse, trainer form good, won at aintree on mildmay course Any thoughts?

It seems likely that with reasonable weather forecast the ground will now against Silver By Nature, who would otherwise have been in with a decent shout imo Killyglen has too fallen too many times to be considered I feel, as we all know those fences are fairly unforgiving to dodgy jumpers....

[Evertonboy]

Re: Grand National Thread

Killyglen has too fallen too many times to be considered I feel' date=' as we all know those fences are fairly unforgiving to dodgy jumpers....[/quote'] As far as I can see he has never fallen?? 12215/11P1/2PP2P-2536

[Hotpot Kid]

Re: Grand National Thread

As far as I can see he has never fallen?? 12215/11P1/2PP2P-2536

Apologies, got that all wrong.... :wall

[sandersstreak]

Re: Grand National Thread I have a feeling that the ground is not going to be such an issue for Silver by Nature. This grey jumps like a machine and there is evidence based on past winners to suggest ground is not so vital when addressing national hurdles. Come Saturday I am hoping the price drifts. :hope