diamond1924 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Midnight Chase is not running Fintron, I'm sure that's been confirmed already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread tricky tricksters out and so is midnight chase Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Cheers gents, thats a couple more out of the way then. Anyone heard anything on King Fontaine, thats another one massive prices on the exchanges and must be a doubt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread I dont normally play this early but decided to get involved to get the blood rushing for the 3 days meeting. I will as ever look closely at the trends and 2 horses that met the trends last year were dream alliance and arbor supreme and these are 2 i will have on my side again., both were in the race for a while and especially Arbor Supreme whom was going really well until it fell. I also agree with those on Oscar time and have added this to my list.Prices taken on Betfair tonight Oscar time 14.0 Arbor Supreme 34.0 Dream Alliance 370.0 Dream alliance needs soft ground to figure but this Welsh National winner has the ability to win this race and if the rain did come for the race, this one could surprise a few and happy to risk a small bet at massive odds. I will probably keep backing the other 2 until the day of the race also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread King Fontaine still in Fin. Dream Alliance pulled today though Bowlesy. Arbor Supreme needs 5 to come out to get a run, its going to be tight! You'll get a refund on that though if you are ballotted out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Simon Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread I'm on Midnight Chase at approx 100s on the machine, but then saw it drift to 200s after connections said they were missing the national, but according to the attheraces website the horse was'nt one of the 8 withdrawn at the latest forfiet stage (today) :unsure. Am i smelling a rat here ? surely if connections wanted a crack at the national then it HAS to be this year off a mark of 158 while the horse is in great form. Don't know what the horses new official rating is but would imagine it to be in the middle to high 160s. Its no brainer for me, come on lady clark, just do it :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread I'm on ALWAYS WAINING at 100/1 NRNB with SJ on Tuesday see its into 33's but still freely available at 66's with other bookies. This horse hacked up in the Topham last year looked as if it could have went another circute that day awesome performance. Has been kept to hurdles this year but would have a chance if he turns up/ gets in the National currently sitting 50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread McCoy confirmed for Dont Push It. Never in doubt really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Skelton to ride Niche Market. Daryl Jacob was announced on What A Friend earlier this week. Ruby on The Midnight Club :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Probably not very reliable this far in advance but here's the weather forecast for Aintree in the days leading up to the festival. Lots of rain. I remember a similar forecast for last year though and the ground ended up pretty fast so maybe better to take more notice closer to the time. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/for...ab/L9%205AS/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Interesting stuff AK. Am on The Midnight Club, but if it does come up soft then my other ante-post bet Silver By Nature may well start favourite. 16/1 nrnb with Stan James is still excellent value. Won his last race easily (on the up), jumping well, well handicapped, stays longer than the proverbial mum-in-law. Still think he has a very good chance on good ground, but on soft he's an "Earth Summit". :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Just seen some of the stuff on page 2. Thought about posting another explanation but Mowgli defended my points well. Probably best for me not to rekindle the debate. Thanks Mowgli. :ok Mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread In 1985 2 of the 40 runners carried 11-0 or more, 1 was placed in the first four, Corbiere who carried 11-10 to 3rd place. Year A B Placed Carrying 11-0 or more 1985 2\40 1\4 Corbiere 11-10 3rd 1986 6\40 0\4 1987 4\40 1\4 West Tip 11-7 4th 1988 3\40 2\4 Rhyme 'N' Reason 11-0 1st West Tip 11-7 4th 1989 2\40 1\4 The Thinker 11-10 3rd 1990 2\38 0\4 1991 6\40 1\4 Garrison Savannah 11-1 2nd 1992 4\40 1\4 Docklands Express 11-2 4th 1993 Void Void 1994 3\36 0\4 1995 4\35 1\4 Dubacilla 11-0 4th 1996 4\27 0\4 1997 1\36 0\4 1998 3\37 1\4 Suny Bay 12-0 2nd 1999 3\32 0\4 2000 11\40 0\4 2001 5\40 1\4 Papillon 11-5 4th 2002 8\40 2\4 What's Up Boys 11-6 2nd Kingsmark 11-9 4th 2003 7\40 0\4 2004 10\39 1\4 Monty's Pass 11-12 4th 2005 12\40 2\4 Hedgehunter 11-1 1st Royal Auclair 11-10 2nd 2006 7\40 1\4 Hedgehunter 11-12 2nd 2007 10\40 0\4 2008 18\40 2\4 Snowy Morning 11-1 3rd Slim Pickings 11-3 4th 2009 16\40 4\4 Mon Mome 11-0 1st Comply Or Die 11-6 2nd My Will 11-4 3rd State Of Play 11-2 4th 2010 19\40 2\4 Don't Push It 11-5 1st Black Apalachi 11-6 2nd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread In the last 25 runnings of the Grand National: 4 winners carried 11-0 or more = 16% of the 25 winners 2.4% of those who carried 11-0 or more won the National 21 winners carried less than 11-0 = 84% of the 25 winners 2.7% of those who carried less than 11-0 won the National Only 170 of the 960 runners carried 11-0 or more = 17.7% of all runners 790 of the 960 runners carried less than 11-0 = 82.3% of all runners 24 of the 100 horses placed in the first 4 carried 11-0 or more = 24% 14.1% of those who carried 11-0 or more were placed 76 of the 100 horses placed in the first 4 carried less than 11-0 = 76% 9.6& of those who carried less than 11-0 were placed There are 13 possible horses to carry 11-0 or more in this year's race. If all 13 take their chance and 40 run, and one of them wins; then a bigger percentage of those carrying 11-0 or more would've won - than the percentage of those carrying less than 11-0. Conclusion: It is weight in relation to the other runners that counts (ie is the horse well handicapped?). Not the actual weight carried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Year Top Weight 1985 Corbiere 11-10 9/1 3rd 1986 Essex (AT) 12-0 100/1 1987 Valencio (AT) 12-0 500/1 Bewley's Hill (AT) 12-0 100/1 1988 West Tip 11-7 11/1 4th 1989 The Thinker 11-10 10/1 3rd 1990 Bonanza Boy 11-9 16/1 1991 Fraze (AT) 11-10 100/1 1992 Twin Oaks 11-7 9/1 1993 VOID 1994 Quirinus (AT) 11-10 250/1 1995 Master Oats 11-10 5/1 1996 Young Hustler 11-7 8/1 1997 Master Oats 11-10 25/1 1998 Suny Bay 12-0 11/1 2nd 1999 Suny Bay 11-13 12/1 2000 Young Kenny 12-0 14/1 2001 Beau 11-10 12/1 2002 Marlborough 11-12 20/1 2003 Behrajan 11-12 22/1 2004 Monty's Pass 11-12 20/1 4th Le Coudray 11-12 28/1 2005 Le Coudray 11-12 33/1 2006 Hedgehunter 11-12 5/1 2nd Royal Auclair 11-12 33/1 2007 Hedgehunter 11-12 9/1 2008 Hedgehunter 11-12 10/1 Hi Cloy 11-12 100/1 2009 Cloudy Lane 11-10 50/1 2010 Madison Du Berlais 11-10 50/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread In the last 25 runnings of the Grand National: 4 winners carried 11-0 or more = 16% of the 25 winners 2.4% of those who carried 11-0 or more won the National 21 winners carried less than 11-0 = 84% of the 25 winners 2.7% of those who carried less than 11-0 won the National Only 170 of the 960 runners carried 11-0 or more = 17.7% of all runners 790 of the 960 runners carried less than 11-0 = 82.3% of all runners 24 of the 100 horses placed in the first 4 carried 11-0 or more = 24% 14.1% of those who carried 11-0 or more were placed 76 of the 100 horses placed in the first 4 carried less than 11-0 = 76% 9.6& of those who carried less than 11-0 were placed There are 13 possible horses to carry 11-0 or more in this year's race. If all 13 take their chance and 40 run, and one of them wins; then a bigger percentage of those carrying 11-0 or more would've won - than the percentage of those carrying less than 11-0. Conclusion: It is weight in relation to the other runners that counts (ie is the horse well handicapped?). Not the actual weight carried. Thanks for this. Even without checking I was sure that was the case. Of course those carrying less than 11st have been a lot more over the years. Hence they were winning more :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
london punter Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Backed Dont push it last year , very difficult to win it 2nd year in a row but nothing stands out to me so will back it again , What a friend is the form horse but stable cant win the race to date and maybe too soon after gold cup , wouldnt be surprised if a complete outsider won it this year ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markmywords Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Whats anyones thoughts on State of Play gets around the track 3rd LTO at CD and a couple of pounds lighter 25/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread regarding state of play he was beaten 25 lenghts into third last year and fourth the year previous to that hes been trained with this race in mind he will need close to good ground to give his best but hes making his seasonal debut in the grand national and the last 28 winners had ran in the previous 50 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread 44/P3- State Of Play (364 days) 11 10-6 Evan Williams 142 Placed in two Grand Nationals, not seen since but that is a positive, best fresh. Dropped 3 lbs for finishing 3rd might seem well treated. However, 4th off a mark of 150, then 3rd from 145; now only 10 lbs better off with Don't Push It for 25 length beating. Trainer considers him best on a sound surface although won 2006 Hennessey on soft surface. Obviously runs well here. Another year older, probably only place prospects again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread The Grand National: Oscar Time 1pt e/w 14/1 Sportingbet NRNB After Long Run at Cheltenham, Oscar Time could complete a dream season for Sam Waley-Cohen and his father and owner Robert. Oscar Time was aquired with the Grand National in mind. He has run second in the Irish version and last time out was third behind the Midnight Club. He has a bit to find on that form with the National favourite, however that was heavy going and there is a feeling Aintree is the aim. Oscar Time has not raced at Aintree before, yet appears a good jumper and should stay the trip. The best prices have gone, however 14/1 looks worth an interest, as the price could shorten as interest increases over the coming week, especially with the publicity surrounding jockey Sam and connections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread this is a very good race for me ......having picked the winner from the trends 5 from the last 9 times i always get excited about it ......(the others i picked the wrong horse!!) we are looking for a horse aged 8-12 ....outside of this winners are very minimal must have won 3miles + (short distance horses dont do any good here)(all winners ) have extended the weight range to 11-5 this year so must be 11-5 or below must have had at least 10 chase runs as experience is a must in winners (all winners qualify) all winners 136+ or no more than 2 career falls (all winners) all winners had run within 50 days ........ applying these trends has narrowd the field to 9 horses .... oscar time niche market ballabriggs bluesea cracker west end rocker chief dan george comply or die northern alliance killyglen the winner would have been on this list every year for the past 10 yrs im looking to narrow this down further ......at present i am very much into NICHE MARKET he looks an all round national type horse but further studying needed cant back all of them ......so need to do some hard pruneing now .... 17 of last 20 winners had run within 34 days so allowing a little leeway ill reduce run time to 40 to fair .........applying this rule reduces the list to 4 !!! niche market ballabriggs chief dan george killiglen 17 from last 20 winners would now have been on this list !!!! this is where the problems start ........ 17 of the last 20 winners were 10-12 or less if you applied this rule rigidly then the winner will be chielf dan george 40/1 or killyglen 66/1 but the other 2 horses are 2 lbs higher so too close for me to comfortably leave them out worth noting that hedgehunter ,red marauder and silver birch all recent winners failed to complete prior to winning here and only NICHE MARKET has this exact form quality he has grand national winner written all over him i'll be going in big and savers on the other 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Niche Market was injured during the race last year and was going ok prior to that. Too early to predict how he would have fared though. I think he is a player based on his hennessy form from this year and last and is on a decent mark now. Stamina over 4m4f is unknown but I guess that applies to most of the field in the grand national! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread 5 day decs today. We have already lost ballytrim, who is lame and sadly, one cool cookie who died in training. Two lively outsiders gone there. Mullins and mcmanus don't seem too bothered about ensuring Arbor Supreme gets a run as they have left no hopers like Quilobet and dooneys gate in. As Arbor still needs 3 to come out, It indicates to me they don't fancy him much. Mcmanus bought bluesea cracker this week. Irish national winner, not without a chance but would be the first mare to win for a long time and would like some cut in the ground too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread im very excited about niche market .......he is actually one of the easiest national trend horses ive had in a while as he screams national horse .......his recent form will put a lot of people off but that doesnt really matter in terms of winning thegrand national .....what you need is somewhere there is the ability to win as all grand national winners have had in their form (without exceptions) and if you look at his 2nd in the aon chase last year and as you said the 3rd in the hennessy last year both from this mark he certainly has the talent and on both occasions was still staying on suggesting that he has been screaming out for longer trips !!! also as you said ak ....i think he got to 3 out last year so a drop in official ratings and 5lb overall drop in weight from last year (11-4 to 10-13) and the picture now becomes clearer as to why he should win ! paul nicholls has never won the national with horses and for a trainer of his calibre that a bug bear i can imagine ........i think this is going to be his year ....everything is in place for a big run ......niche market is his main aintree hope as stated in the press .....the horse has had a wind operation recently which worked wonders for master minded ,he has previuosly won the irish national !!! which i only just noticed!!! quotes......." There are not many spaces in the trophy cabinet of Paul Nicholls but there is one that had remained stubbornly hard to fill. The five-time champion trainer has saddled 48 runners in the National, his best showing thus far coming with Royal Auclair who finished second to Hedgehunter in 2005, and he has 10 of 101 entries for this year’s renewal, which will be worth a record £950,000. They range from Neptune Collonges, who is the joint-topweight with last year’s winner Don’t Push It on 11st 10lb, through to some more speculative propositions such as Meanus Dandy, who is only 70th in the list of possible runners. However, if there is a horse that can break a losing run that stretches back 19 years, it could be Niche Market. The winner of the Irish National in 2009, Niche Market joined Nicholls for the start of this season and has not been seen out since finishing fifth to Diamond Harry in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November. The 10-year-old, who has been given 10st 13lb for the National, underwent a breathing operation in the interim and Nicholls is hoping that stable jockey Ruby Walsh will be back in the saddle for when Niche Market has his National prep at Newbury early next month. Writing on betfair.com Nicholls said: "Niche Market is probably our No.1 hope at the moment. Had a breathing operation after his fifth in the Hennessy and is back in full work. Will go to Newbury for the race we won last year with Big Fella Thanks [now trained by Ferdy Murphy] on March 5th - the intention is for Ruby to ride him in that race - and goes to Aintree afterwards" the grand national ....the race of dreams .......it looks like paul nicholls dream of winning might possibly come true this year ? i always like a good go in the national and have won some mega bucks in the past so the 50pts i got back from dance and dances e.w the other day is going straight on the nose at 16 or 18 whatever i can get to set myself up a nice payday (kids are mithering me about disneyland paris...lol) the only thing that makes me really nervous is the jockey ....harry skelton ? who's that ?......lol (although i said the same thing about liam treadwell ?) small note though ........silver by nature won national trial and only fails on career falls (3) so had only just failed to make shortlist so wouldnt put anyone off backing him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread He got a bad review after his last prep run but I thought it was an ok performance over a trip too short. I'll be having an interest. What are peoples thoughts on tidal bay? Part of me thinks he is well handicapped, but another part of me thinks he has been flattered, staying on past beaten horses. I'm looking at northern alliance too. His profile reminds me of montys pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread tidal bay is without doubt a very talented horse but i couldnt realistically back him as a national winner as to lump 11-9 around aintree over 4m 4f would take a superhuman performance the likes of which we havent seen to date Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread There's been some close calls though. I can thing of 3 runners up in recent years who were in the top 2 of the weights. Dpi and black apalachi, were the first two home last year carrying 11,5 and 11,6. I think the compression of the handicap recently will see the weight stat go out the window. Time will tell I suppose! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread as an e.w horse then definately .....i dont think the weight would stop him getting a place but to win its a big ask .....definate e.w shout though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread I've decided against it now :lol 9 withdrawals at the 6 day stage: Synchronised, Midnight Chase, Scotsirish, Notre Pere, Ballytrim, Nezders Return, One Cool Cookie, Frankie Figg, Dev. Number 40 is Our Monty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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