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Tennis - 14-20 February


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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

- Ernests Gulbis -3 games AH (vs Philipp Petzschner) @ 2.15 with Pinnacle (4pts) - Xavier Malisse - 3.5 games AH (vs Florent Serra) @ 1.971 with Pinnacle (6pts)
Petzschner d. Gulbis 7-6 6-1 - LOSS Serra d. Malisse 6-2 1-0 - VOID Wee loss today but could have been a whole lot worse. Malisse retired when trailing Serra, which saved the handicap. Bad call on Gulbis ... no idea what happened there to him, poor result. Montanes gutsed it out over Fognini to keep the double alive.
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Raonic (+3) to beat Verdasco 1.68@triobet Well i'll be a little bit coward here to go for clear handycap on Milos. The re-match of the Final in San Jose last week which went to Canadian in two tie-breaks. Milos improving a lot and is very creative player with good serve. Maybe i should go for straight win here, but i will cope on handycap +3 with good odd of 1.68 :hope

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Just taking one tomorrow in Dubai involving you know who ;) Shahar Peer vs Yanina Wickmayer- Peer to win- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Was hoping to get this kind of price on Shahar and happy to take her for the third day in a row. Not sure I agree with the whole Wickmayer being favourite in this one. See it more as a 50/50, if not a slight edge in Peer's favour. Wickmayer hasn't shown me anything this season to suggest that she's capable of troubling the big guns of the WTA. Granted she made the final in Brisbane, but none of the players she faced there were of great quality and she needed 3 sets to overcome the likes of Safina and Lisicki before falling to Greta Arn in the final. Her being favourite is completely down to her win over Li which if you watched the match, you could see that Li was nowhere near her best and had 4 MPs in the second set tie break. Yanina also looked like she was suffering from fatigue at the end of the match also. Peer on the other hand has had few problems in her two matches and looks like she is relishing again in the Dubai conditions. She's had mixed results this year so far, nothing special but Dubai could bring the best out of her. She beat Wickmayer last year in Dubai in 3 sets so she will have that slight psychological boost. This could well go the distance but hopefully Shahar can provide the goods for the third day on the trot.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Sport Tennis Event Kanepi v Jankovic Selection Kanepi Strength 10/10 Date 17/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 1.66 Reasoning I feel like Kanepi has to be the play here. She's in good form and has a big game. A game that has hurt Jankovic in the past, H2H 3-1 to Kanepi with Jankovics only win coming on clay. Jankovic has been really struggling, her game at times seems completely gone. A win against Scheepers doesn't change much for me, and Kanepi should be far too good here.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Hi guys, need your expert advice on a few handicap matches played today with big favourites. I wanna find two very likely handicap matches and combine in a double. I reviewed todays matches and found four interesting matches. Would appreciate any feedback on which one is more likely or if any of them is in for trouble... Match 1 (Buenos Aires, clay) Robredo (ESP) - Ramos Vinolas (ESP) Match 2 (Buenos Aires, clay) Almagro (ESP) - Mayer (ARG) Match 3 (Marseille, hard court) Berdych (CZE) - Roger Vasselin (FRA) Match 4 (Buenos Aires, clay) Nalbandian (ARG) - Brzezicki (ARG) Thanks guys!

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February First one of the day for me in the ridiculously early match ... hoping to hit a few more as prices become available. - Philipp Petzschner +3.5 games AH (vs Marin Cilic) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (5pts) I think I may have underestimated the German in his last match with Gulbis. He made pretty light work of the Latvian yesterday and faces another player who is rated higher but comes here well short of his peak game. Cilic seems to have been getting by but only just against the majority of players. I wasn't impressed at all by his dropping of a set against Bohli, and I feel it'll take him time to get back to his full game. His serve and forehand are far too inconsistent - a lot of the time he nets these shots - and there appears to be a general malaise with his game that coach Brett has yet to iron out. I think Petzschner will be a hard match for him because the German is desperately trying to salvage some ranking points after making the semi-finals last year. He's got a quite unorthodox brand of tennis but it appears to be working and he's taken confidence from winning the doubles in Rotterdam last week. His desire for this may be greater than Cilic's, who has seemed lethargic and disinterested to me recently. Cilic has won their last two meetings, but the Cilic of the past is not the same as the Cilic we see here. Petzschner has a chance here, and the +3.5 seems nice enough for me to hit. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Hi guys, need your expert advice on a few handicap matches played today with big favourites. I wanna find two very likely handicap matches and combine in a double. I reviewed todays matches and found four interesting matches. Would appreciate any feedback on which one is more likely or if any of them is in for trouble... Match 1 (Buenos Aires, clay) Robredo (ESP) - Ramos Vinolas (ESP) Match 2 (Buenos Aires, clay) Almagro (ESP) - Mayer (ARG) Match 3 (Marseille, hard court) Berdych (CZE) - Roger Vasselin (FRA) Match 4 (Buenos Aires, clay) Nalbandian (ARG) - Brzezicki (ARG) Thanks guys!
Obviously, each person has a different opinion on value and what the lines should be, so here's my viewpoint on them. I think the Robredo handicap is too high - he should beat Ramos-Vinolas but he's not somebody I trust implicitly with big handicaps. The Almagro line is how I would have it and the price is appealing, but it's tough to against Mayer for some reason. There's probably a bet in there though. Conversely, I'd say the Berdych line is correct, but there's no value in the price. I wouldn't be taking Nalbandian on a -5.5 line either. All the above players should win, but I wouldn't touch the majority of the handicaps unless prices and lines alter.
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February One early for me. (3/10) D.Tursunov (+2.5) to bt. I.Ljubicic @ 1.92 at Pinnacle I think that Tursunov might be a little underrated here. Ljubicic in splendid form, but fatigue might set in at any stage and Tursunov has huge game and will not allow Ljubicic too many chances on his own serve. I think this will be pretty tight and while Ljubicic might get through at the end, I cannot see him winning easily.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Two final bets of the day for me ... can't really see a great deal that stands out. - Adrian Mannarino +3.5 games AH (vs Lleyton Hewitt) @ 1.99 with Pinnacle (6pts) I think we have a case here of an up-and-coming player meeting another who is on a downward trend. There is no doubting Hewitt's competitiveness and that gets him over the line against most players, but I think he'll need more than that to beat Mannarino. The Frenchman is really starting to impress with his sophisticated game and he was ruthless in disposing of Hajek in the last round 6-2 6-2. Hewitt beat Lu yesterday but didn't impress a great deal, certainly not to the extent where he would cover a -3.5 handicap. He's up against a hungry, confident player who is on the brink of breaking into the Top 50. Hewitt's game is based on counterpunching but I'm not sure that will work against someone like Mannarino, who is a deft shotmaker and can punish defensive players. I think this will be a close-run thing, and to get Mannarino on this sort of line seems generous. - Nicolas Almagro -4 games AH (vs Leonardo Mayer) @ 1.92 with 188bet (6pts) I spoke about the Almagro handicap above but I think -4 games is too short on the Spaniard, so I'm happy to take it. Mayer is still coming back to his best form after a horrific 2011 blighted by injury. He's certainly a talented boy but his game is based mainly around power, and he'll rely on his huge forehand to glean points. I don't think that'll be enough against someone like Almagro. He is playing some very good clay court tennis at present and is looking extremely confident. He has the serve and the strokes to dismantle players such as Mayer on this surface and was very swift in taking out Galdon in R1. Mayer, on the otherhand, struggled to beat del Bonis, and had far too many lapses when serving. I don't think he'll be afforded the same luxury against Almagro. I wouldn't take the -4.5 game line, even though the price is bigger, as the -4 line seems a much safer alternative. With Almagro in the current form he is in, I think he can cover this against Mayer. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Simon vs. Youzhny
Selection Simon +2
Strength 9/10
Date 17/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price Sportingbet @ 1.87
Reasoning Simon should be favourite here. Has had a pretty good year winning in Sydney and pushing Fed all the way in a tough 5-set match at the AO. Youzhny on the other hand, hasn't beaten anyone decent this year and Simon will definitely push him. Youzhny leads H2H 6-0 but this match is in Simon's hands.
I wonder where you take that much confidence. Simon's performance last week in Rotterdam was awfull, the same applies for his yesterday's match with Davydenko. Only the fact that Davydenko apparently did not care whether he wins or not made him the winner yesterday. On the other hand Youzhnyi had nice run in Rotterdam losing only to champion Soderling. I am still decing whether to bet on this match or not, but if I will, it will be on Youzhnyi's side.
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Just taking one tomorrow in Dubai involving you know who ;) Shahar Peer vs Yanina Wickmayer- Peer to win- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Was hoping to get this kind of price on Shahar and happy to take her for the third day in a row. Not sure I agree with the whole Wickmayer being favourite in this one. See it more as a 50/50, if not a slight edge in Peer's favour. Wickmayer hasn't shown me anything this season to suggest that she's capable of troubling the big guns of the WTA. Granted she made the final in Brisbane, but none of the players she faced there were of great quality and she needed 3 sets to overcome the likes of Safina and Lisicki before falling to Greta Arn in the final. Her being favourite is completely down to her win over Li which if you watched the match, you could see that Li was nowhere near her best and had 4 MPs in the second set tie break. Yanina also looked like she was suffering from fatigue at the end of the match also. Peer on the other hand has had few problems in her two matches and looks like she is relishing again in the Dubai conditions. She's had mixed results this year so far, nothing special but Dubai could bring the best out of her. She beat Wickmayer last year in Dubai in 3 sets so she will have that slight psychological boost. This could well go the distance but hopefully Shahar can provide the goods for the third day on the trot.
WIN Really good comeback from Peer, Wickmayer eventually running out of steam.
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Edouard Roger Vasselin - Tomas Berdych
Selection Edouard Roger Vasselin (+4.5 games handicap) (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 17/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 1.90
Reasoning Here we have a very interesting game between Edouardo Roger-Vasselin and Tomas Berdych in the second round of Marseille ATP tournament. Edoaurd Roger Vasselin dispensed Arnaud Clement in two sets and lost five total games. Her service worked perfectly in that game: fireing 4 aces and winning 76% of the total service points. He is in a very good mood now. Edouard Roger Vasselin is here in Marseille for 6 days, because he played 3 matches to qualifing in the main draw. He had enough time to get accustomed to the conditions of play. On the other hand we have a top player, in person of Thomas Berdych. The Czech is #2 seeded here, but I don't think it will reach the final stages of this tournament. Berdych has never been past the second round in Marseille, and this is for sure not one of his favorite tournaments. Edouard Roger-Vasselin is more determined player here, and he can keep the match tight and give Berdych a real fight today! The Frenchman has a good serve, and it will be very difficult for Tomas Berdych to make the break on the Roger-Vasselin's service. At this handicap, Edouard Roger-Vasselin has to be the bet here!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Edouard Roger Vasselin - Tomas Berdych
Selection Edouard Roger Vasselin (+4.5 games handicap) (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 17/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 1.90
Reasoning Here we have a very interesting game between Edouardo Roger-Vasselin and Tomas Berdych in the second round of Marseille ATP tournament. Edoaurd Roger Vasselin dispensed Arnaud Clement in two sets and lost five total games. Her service worked perfectly in that game: fireing 4 aces and winning 76% of the total service points. He is in a very good mood now. Edouard Roger Vasselin is here in Marseille for 6 days, because he played 3 matches to qualifing in the main draw. He had enough time to get accustomed to the conditions of play. On the other hand we have a top player, in person of Thomas Berdych. The Czech is #2 seeded here, but I don't think it will reach the final stages of this tournament. Berdych has never been past the second round in Marseille, and this is for sure not one of his favorite tournaments. Edouard Roger-Vasselin is more determined player here, and he can keep the match tight and give Berdych a real fight today! The Frenchman has a good serve, and it will be very difficult for Tomas Berdych to make the break on the Roger-Vasselin's service. At this handicap, Edouard Roger-Vasselin has to be the bet here!
I like this one. Tomas withdrew from Rotterdam last week due to flu, and you get not in shape in one week after having a flu. Adding an outright as weel at half unit.
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Tobias Kamke - Michael Llodra
Selection Tobias Kamke (+3.5 games handicap) (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 17/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price SBOBet @ 1.94
Reasoning Michael Llodra, the No 8 seed, defeated his fellow Frenchman Julien Benneteau 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 in the first-round here in Marseille. That one was a rematch between last year's ATP Marseille finalists. I remember you that Llodra has reached the final of this tournament in the past two years, finnishing runner-up to Tsonga in 2009 before claiming the title last year. Llodra is an average player, a big-server which plays a simple game without technical fireworks. But this simple game seems to suits very well on this indoor hard-court in Marseille. Tobias Kamke comes into the tournament ranked #69 in the world. He is an average player like Llodra, with a very good serve and a good quality vole. Unlike for Llodra, this Tobias Kamke is the better player from the baseline. Kamke with his solid serve, has won very easy against Thomas Schoorel in the first round here in Marseille. It was a 6-0, 6-2 win, with Tobias Kamke winning 74% of the total service points, and 53% of the total return points. This will not be a walk-over for Llodra. Kamke should give Llodra a real fight!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

One early for me. (3/10) D.Tursunov (+2.5) to bt. I.Ljubicic @ 1.92 at Pinnacle I think that Tursunov might be a little underrated here. Ljubicic in splendid form, but fatigue might set in at any stage and Tursunov has huge game and will not allow Ljubicic too many chances on his own serve. I think this will be pretty tight and while Ljubicic might get through at the end, I cannot see him winning easily.
Good shout Czech :ok
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Caroline Wozniacki - Ayumi Morita
Selection Morita (+6.5 handicap games) (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 17/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.80
Reasoning Ayumi Morita passed the qualifications here beating Sophie Lefevre and Vesna Manasieva in straight sets to be on the main draw at Dubai. In the first round, the young japanese girl won against No 13 seed Petra Kvitova in two tight sets. Then, in the second round Ayumi Morita had an impressive win over Sania Mirza (6-4, 6-2). Morita is at the top of her game right now! She is in a very good form, playing realy well here in Dubai. She has a decent serve, moves well, playing a defensive game from the baseline. On the other side we have Caroline Wozniacki - a player who is top seed here in Dubai! Wozniacki is the more experienced player here, but Morita is in a really good form, and this one should be a tight battle. Ayumi Morita should cover easily this handicap! Caro should win this one, but the line is too big, and I take it Ayumi Morita with full stake!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

One early for me. (3/10) D.Tursunov (+2.5) to bt. I.Ljubicic @ 1.92 at Pinnacle I think that Tursunov might be a little underrated here. Ljubicic in splendid form, but fatigue might set in at any stage and Tursunov has huge game and will not allow Ljubicic too many chances on his own serve. I think this will be pretty tight and while Ljubicic might get through at the end, I cannot see him winning easily.
well done mate!!! nice work...
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Wawrinka (-2.5) vs Monaco (5/10) 1.93 @pinnacle Here i´m mainly opposing Monaco. He is not the solid player he used to be in clay last season (even in clay). In this tournament he had 2 wins in straight sets but to very inferior players, and in both he needed a tiebreak to get through (in last match his opponent served for first set) He is having a lot o problems in his service games and Stan will punish him for that. Wakrinka played last night a very good match against Hanescu. They both player really well and if he continues in that direction, i have no doubt that Stan is gonig to win the match. I´m taking the handicap cause the line seems ok according to the price we are getting. Cuevas (-2) vs Acasuso (4/10) 1.901 @pinnacle Here i´m with Cuevas cause i´m opposing Acasuso. The argentinian has not been in the atp level in a while. He got lucky cause Dolgopolov was terrible. Can´t say he throw the match but played it like he had no interest in it at all. On the other hand Cuevas is a solid clay player and IMO will be able to punish Acasuso´s lack of rythm agaist atp level players. He might be tired fisically and emotionally after his "great win" against the dog and that might play against him today. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Thanks Atko. I will have some more for the early matches. Not sure about the late matches yet, although they may offer some decent bets in the end. (5/10) M.Youzhny to bt. G.Simon @ 1.73 at Pinnacle I expect Youzhny to continue the 6-0 run over Simon. The Frenchman is in poor form and this is a bad match-up. He would prefer a slower surface, but this one is pretty quick, which does not suit his playing style at all. Youzhny had a great week in Rotterdam, pushing Soderlin in a good performance. Cannot see an upset here really. (3/10) B.Dabul (+4) to bt. S.Querrey @ 2.10 at Pinnacle I have to bite at this price. Querrey is poor on return, the surface is quick and Dabul is far from poor on serve. He may prove to be a tough nut to crack and after pushing Hewitt last time, he should be full of confidence. Istomin is not much better than Dabul and he cleared the handicap with ease. Querrey is still quite vulnerable in my opinion and although I fancy him to com through, it should be a pretty tight affair. (3/10) K.Kanepi (-3) to bt. J.Jankovic @ 1.95 at Pinnacle Kanepi is dominating the match-up and is the better player on hard courts. She beat Petkovic, who I rate higher than Jankovic in these conditions and she will not have much respect for the Serbian. She covered the handicap in all their meeting on hard courts, so I expect a similar match today.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Robin Soderling - Nicolas Mahut
Selection Mahut (+4 games handicap) (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 17/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.00
Reasoning This line is too big in my opinion. Here we have two big-servers, two big-hitters, and each one of these two players should win easily the service points. Soderling is coming after a great week spent in Rotterdam, where he won the title. He had four days to rest, and if he is 100% mentally focused in this one, then he can start another run in Marseille. But Mahut is a local favorite, a big-server who is playing on a indoor hard-court. It shouldn't be so easy for Soderling in her first match. Nicolas Mahut was impressive in the first round against Andrey Kumantsov. He won 81% of the total service points, fireing 7 aces, in a 6-2, 6-0 victory. Mahut (+4 games handicap) is my bet here! It will be a very tight match!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Gilles Simon - Mikhail Youzhny
Selection Youzhny (-1.5 handicap games) (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 17/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price SBOBet @ 1.94
Reasoning I have a logic in betting on tennis: the Head-to-Head matches does matters a lot! Mikhail Youzhny is 6-0 against Gilles Simon in his carrer, and the Frenchman really can't find a way to beat his opponent. After so many defeats to the same player, Gilles Simon comes into the match with a low moral. Mikhail Youzhny appears to be getting form back; he played some good mathces in the last week at Rotterdam ATP. Now he is back on track and ready to start a new run here in Marseille. This surface seems to suits really well to Youzhny's game, and I can see the Russian in the final stages of this tournament. I can see an easy win here for the Russian guy!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Nicolas Almagro - Leonardo Mayer
Selection Mayer (+4.5 handicap games) (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 17/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price Gamebookers @ 1.74
Reasoning Nicolas Almagro is top seeded here, coming into this tournament ranked #13 in the world. He spent a great week in Costa do Sauipe, winning a title after a good game in the final against Alexandr Dolgopolov. Now he is in the second round at Buenos Aires, and he could start to make a new run here, but his motivation is questionable. Is he 100% mentally focused to this tournament? I think he isn't, because this is a small 250 tournament, where he has no points to defend. Almagro's record here in Buenos Aires in the past two years is terrible: he had lost in the first round against Oscar Hernandez in 2009, and one year later he was defeated by Daniel Gimeno Traver in the first round. Leonardo Mayer is a local favorite here, and he is very motivated to make a good game against Almagro! He moves well on the court, serving good and make a good hame from the baseline. This one should be very tight! Mayer should cover this handicap!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Tommy Robredo - Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Selection Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Strength 10/10
Date 18/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 4.90
Reasoning Albert Ramos-Vinolas is a very talented player - he was born in 188. Albert won his first Challenger Title at the San Sebastian Challenger defeating Benoit Paire 6-4, 6-2. After that he won in Seville - defeated in final Pere Riba 6-3 3-6 7-5. Albert Ramos-Vinolas is left-handed so Robredo can have problems against him. Tommy Robredo played against Maximo Gonzalez in first round but didn't show anything special - won after 94 minutes. Maximo Gonzalez had 3 break points but Robredo saved it. Tommy Robredo has weak 2nd Serve. In last match agaisnt Gonzalez he was serving poor: 2nd Serve Points Won 44% (8/18) It's a chance for young talented player. Albert Ramos-Vinolas!
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Got a few more to run today ... just the one new bet so far. - Albert Montanes (vs Fabio Fognini) x Michael Llodra (vs Tobias Kamke) @ 2.33 with Betfred (4pts) Very appealling odds on this double, which I feel should come through. I think we might see Montanes kick on now after he got his first win on clay against Ramirez-Hidalgo. He's got more consistency and variation than Fognini, and is more stable mentally. I wrote about Fognini earlier in the week, about how he is supremely talented yet a complete nut-case, and that latter attribute often lets him down against solid players. Montanes will frustrate him and get under his skin, and will also bring him to the net, which Fognini doesn't like. It's 1-1 on the H2H but Montanes won their last meeting 6-1 6-1, and I'd expect him to win here. I'll double him up with Llodra, who plays Kamke tomorrow. Kamke dismantled Schoorel in R1 but I believe the Dutchman just collapsed rather than Kamke morphing into a wonderful player. Llodra did the hard part of his draw in beating Benneteau yesterday and I'd expect him to have too much for Kamke in these conditions, which are perfect for Llodra's game. Handicap does look a tad high so I'm happy to throw him in with Albert. :hope
Top work fella, I doth my cap.... :clap
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Sport Tennis Event Melzer v Tursunov Selection Tursunov Strength 10/10 Date 18/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Betfred @ 2.50 Reasoning The 2.50 from Betfred stands out early and looks worth taking. As mentioned earlier this week, Tursunov seems to have found his game again. Big fight with Dimitrov, then I missed out but backing him against Ljubicic but will try him here. Not sure about Melzer, not good performance last week and just 1 win to go on this week. H2H 2-1 to Tursunov with Melzers only win last year in US Open when Tursunov was really struggling, and still that went to 5 sets. Think the match up is good for Tursunov, his raw power causing Melzer problems.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Sport Tennis Event Hewitt v Mannarino Selection Mannarino Strength 10/10 Date 18/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 3.00 Reasoning Mannarino definately worth a try here. He's in good form this year, improving, and despite not being a big server plays quite a lot indoors and is good. Real good chance to take out Hewitt who is not the player of old. Last week wasn't good against Dabul and tame against del Potro. He beat Lu this week but this is much tougher. Mannarino moves the ball around really well and I think will control most of the rallies and is a good price.

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