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Atko

Tennis - 14-20 February

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Yeah Bojana held on there, good girl to back. There'll be more chances to back her in the future too. Mahut cruising though, Kumantsov must have been utter crap. Still wouldnt back Mahut -5.5 against most players on the tour to be honest.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February On another note, shocked to see Schoorel get beaten so heavily by Kamke. Hard to believe a player like Schoorel can only win 2 games on an indoor hard court with his big game. Kvitova losing in 2 to Morita was a bit surprising too, although I guess she was wrecked after last week and still fought to 2 tie breaks. Favourite player on the womens tour right now.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February I thought about it a lot and I just cannot let that one go. Very small stakes, but I just think this screams value. Sorry guys :tongue2. (1/10) R.Mello to bt. J.Blake @ 2.92 at Pinnacle A lot has been said about how Mello should go down easily, but I cannot see that happening. Of course, he is mainly a clay courter. But I have seen Blake a lot of times last year and he can be way off at times. Mello is fitter than him and I think he has about 40 percent chance here. He has had a great season so far, beating some strong players on clay and although this is a quicker surface, I can definitely see him winning this. These days, I would not be happy back Blake (and I would never trust him to beat any sort of handicap).

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Just taken 4 in Dubai tomorrow on the women's side of things. Was looking at the overs in the Peng-Mattek Sands match and also looking to oppose Kvitova on the handicap but line is a little low. Yanina Wickmayer vs Bojana Jovanovski- Jovanovski +3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Expected a 2.5/3 handicap here so happy to take the slightly higher line, although I imagine it will end up being lower. Wickmayer has played alot of tennis recently whilst there has also been reports about a slight injury she has picked up along the way. Was involved in a lengthy match with Kvitova a few days back which she lost after choking in the third. She'd already played a couple of Fed Cup matches before that so chances are she's not going to be 100%. That on top of adapting to conditions over in Dubai, a vast different to that of Paris suggests to me that she could face some problems tomorrow. She has also shown her vulnerable side this year getting beat by the likes of Arn and Sevastova on the hard courts, two players she really should be beating. Jovanovski on the other hand has really emerged as one of the most promising players in the WTA. Already beaten Kanepi and Pennetta this year whilst taking the first set against Zvonareva at the AO. She has also just helped Serbia beat Canada in the Fed Cup by winning her two matches in straight sets which was a week ago so unlike Wickmayer, she has had that extra bit of time to adapt to conditions in Dubai. The young Serbian could have a bit of fun over the next couple of weeks if she plays how she has been doing and Wickmayer tomorrow if she's not on song, could face a R1 defeat two years in a row. Prefer the handicap to the outright though and can see Bojana pinching a set here if not the match. Jelena Dokic vs Flavia Pennetta- Pennetta -4.5 handicap- 4/6 Bet365- (5/10) These days the only events that Dokic really manages to perform in are the challanger events. She's not a bad indoor player as shown by her performance last week in Paris but on the outdoor stage, she is often picked apart by the better players. Petkovic, Kuznetsova and Clijsters have all beaten the Australian easily enough this year. Add this to the fact that she lost to players well outside the top 100 on hard last year then you'd have to fancy Pennetta to win this without too much trouble. The Italian herself looks to be somewhere around her best again this year with impressive wins over Peer, Zvonareva and Stosur last week, to which all three players are a couple of notches above Dokic. H2H is 1-0 for the Italian but this was when Dokic retired but the score at that point was 5-0 to Pennetta first set. The Italian made the third round last year and must surely fancy going further this year given the form she's in. Handicap should be covered here though. Patty Schnyder vs Ana Ivanovic- Ivanovic -4.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Not keen on backing Ivanovic with a handicap but she should have enough about her to win this won with some ease. Schnyder hasn't played a great deal of tennis this year. Lost early to a lowly Tsurenko at the AO and then lost 2/3 of her Fed Cup matches. Ivanovic herself hasn't been great this season by any means but fancy her for two main reasons. One is that last week she played some matches over in Thailand and I'm guessing the humid conditions are similiar to that over in Dubai so she should have adapted. The second reason being the H2H. I know sometimes it's wrong to analyse it in great detail but Ivanovic has won the last 5 matches between the pair of them, 4 of them in easy straight sets. (6-1 6-2 most recent at back end of last year) Schnyder is no spring chicken and if it's hot and humid, can see Ivanovic producing a good scoreline in this one so willing to take her with a 4.5 handicap. Saving the best till last. ;) Shahar Peer vs Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez- Peer -3.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Fancy Shahar here to cover the handicap. Last year she firmly established herself as one of the top players in the WTA and showed she can hit with the best of them. Last year in Dubai is where her best run happened. Wins over Wickmayer, Razzano, Wozniacki and Li sent her into the semis before she fell to Venus. The conditions in this tournament suit her so perfectly and she said last year how much she enjoyed playing in Dubai. Traditionally her best results in the year will come in the east where it is warm and Peer can make her opponents run all over the court and wear them down. She's also worked on her serve in the last 12 months and it is now full of variation and an effective one. Her results this year haven't been anything special but I fancy her to get some wins over the next couple of weeks. Martinez-Sanchez isn't the best draw for Shahar here as being a lefty, she can cause problems for her opponents with her spin and angles. This worked so effectively against Kanepi who she beat in the Fed Cup, however Peer is alot fitter than Kanepi and will look to make the Spaniard play that extra shot. One thing I feel Sanchez will struggle with is the extra power Peer can get on a ball out of nothing, making her incredibly hard to pcik and read. Kleybanova and Cornet, both reasonably big hitters have beaten the Spaniard this year in straight sets which to me says she is vulnerable against the powerful groundstrokes. Peer may indeed have to work a bit in this one but if she takes a close first set, can see her covering the handicap in the second.
WIN WIN LOSS WIN Shame about Ivanovic, had plenty of chances but looks like she could well lose that one, serve extremely erratic. Other 3 got the job done though, Peer and Pennetta with ease, Jovanovski managed to secure the 2 games in the third set to cover the handicap. Shame I didn't take the overs in the Peng match, or opposing Kvitova but can't complain. Good start to the week :ok

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sania Mirza (-2.5) to beat Akgul Amanmuradova @ 1.90 (BET 365) Strength (5/10) Fancy Mirza to take this, and the handicap should be easily covered if she does. Amanmuradova is dangerous but she can get overwhelmed by mobile players with big strokes and Mirza has a forehand that could take her apart and expose her lack of mobility, being 6ft 4. Mirza has good memories of Dubai, winning the ITF tournament here in December beating the likes of Goerges and Jovanovski on the way. She beat Agkul 6-3 6-4 on hard court back in September in the only match they've played so far - she also seems in better shape now than she was then - so we should see a similar result. GL! :hope
WIN Restored my faith in humanity that has.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Czech I agree about Mello. I was gonna go with Blake but then I checked Mello's hard court record. He's not as big a mug on that surface as I thought he was.
Unfortunately, he just isn't able to save any break points. Which is not good.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Think people are (a) underestimating Blake against average players and (b) overestimating Mello. He has done nothing of note on the hard and had just come off two weeks of clay court action. Was never going to happen. Blake may lose in R2 but -3.5 at the price was a gift, and so it proved.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February I wonder if Davydenko will finally get one over on Simon. He really is due a win against the Frenchman and you wonder if Simon is in the form to grind out a win against the more talented Russian once again.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Only one appeals to me Sport Tennis Event Marino v Cirstea Selection Marino Strength 10/10 Date 16/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 1.72 Reasoning Marino looks like a solid to me here. She's a player ont he rise, and conditions should suit. She's a big server and generally has a big game. She's done ok this year and should be too strong here. Cirstea has really dipped from ehr form a couple of years ago, and surely would be better off on the clay. Prices looks pretty good.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Ugh. I seriously think that I might be a little bit too trigger-happy. Oh well, it was working well last week :D. Smaller stakes advised for the WTA. Have something in mind for the ATP, but I am still waiting on some lines. (5/10) M.Johansson to bt. Y.Meusburger @ 1.78 at Pinnacle Yvonne surprised me with her win in the first round, but this should be it. Johansson has beaten her twice already and her win over Halep should not be taken lightly. Definitely the better player overall and I cannot see Meusburger making much further progress in her first tournament this year. (4/10) J.Groth to bt. A.Kleybanova @ 2.13 at Pinnacle At least a 50/50 match. Two similar players, but I think Groth has more confidence and a little bit better movement than Kleybanova. Both are pretty strong hitters, but I suspect Groth may have that little extra bit. Would also say that she is better on return than Kleybanova. Fancy Groth here at odds against. (3/10) J.Zheng to bt. P.Schnyder @ 1.98 at Pinnacle Zheng is the more talented player and looks set to make progress here. She is good on hard courts and has beaten many better player than Schnyder last year, for example. Showed good spirit against Barrois, while Schnyder has beaten Ivanovic, who is pretty poor once again. Zheng should have her chances here, she is pretty good on hard courts. (3/10) R.Marino (-2) to bt. S.Cirstea @ 1.93 at Pinnacle Fancy the Canadian here. She is the better player on hard courts, while Cirstea was never really comfortable indoors in my opinion. Marino should have edge in power and her worse movement should not be that exposed in these conditions. Both are in similar form, but Marino should feel better in the conditions, which should ultimately decide the result here. (2/10) Ch.Scheepers (+4.5) to bt. J.Jankovic @ 2.01 at Pinnacle I think that Scheepers will have her say in this one. Jankovic hates windy conditions and it seems wind is likely to play part in this one. Jankovic has not played a match here yet, while Scheepers is riding on confidence at the moment, having just beaten Kirilenko. Jankovic is definitely prone to errors and I think the handicap should have been a game lower. Scheepers might even win this one!

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Well ended with a tiny profit today with Stepanek and Jovanovski doing the job. The Pole just not good enough to grind out tough matches like the one against Dabul, could have avoided that one. He gets tight late in sets which is something I notice alot with him and not doing enough on return.Will keep that in my head for a later date.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

- Radek Stepanek (vs. Benjamin Becker) @ 1.546 [Pinnacle] (5/10) WIN - Adrian Mannarino -3.5 games (vs. Jan Hajek) @ 1.752 [Pinnacle] (5/10) WIN - Michael Llodra -3.5 games (vs. Julian Benneteau) @ 1.917 [Pinnacle] (5/10) LOSS
+1.49 overall, Llodra missing out on the handicap by 0.5 games. +4.94 for the week, let's hope the profit continues ;)

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Taken 5 for tomorrow's action in Dubai. Was considering taking both Azarenka and Zvonareva with their respective handicaps but opted against it. Agnieszka Radwanska vs Anastasija Sevastova- Radwanska -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Suprised to see such a low handicap for Agy here, was expecting at least a 4.5 so happy to go with the 3.5. She recieved a bye into the second round due to her seeding so she'll be fresh and ready to go tomorrow and looking to repeat her good form that she produced here 12 months ago. She has only lost two matches this year, to Clijsters and Azarenka, and her Latvian opponent is nowhere near the standards of either of those two players. Sevastova IMO is being overrated simply due to her AO performance. Granted she made it to the fourth round but she didn't have the toughest draw in the world and eventually fell to Wozniacki. Traditionally her best results have over in America and she does seem to struggle in the humid conditions of the west. In her first round match, she was broken 7 times and it was only because Rodionova was even worse on her service that Sevastova progressed. She actually played on the Dubai courts in a challenger event at the end of last year where Jovanovski beat her after bagelling her in the third set. Just can't see the Pole having too much trouble tomorrow and expect her to knock the Latvian out like she did in their only meeting in the same tournament last year. 6-3 6-3 was the score then, might be something similiar again. Chanelle Scheepers vs Jelena Jankovic- Scheepers +4.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Know IAG spoke a bit about the South African in her thrashing of Kirilenko in R1 and again I expect her to perform well again tomorrow. I find it near enough impossible to back Jankovic atm. 2 wins in her last 10 matches is poor for any players, but for a women who is meant to be one of the best in her field it isn't happy reading for the Serb. Losses to Rezai and Peng this year are really bad results and watching her at the AO, she was playing like she'd never played a competitive match before and with a severe lack of confidence. Scheepers should be the complete opposite after her victory over Kirilenko and by now, she's played enough tennis to be completely at home under these conditions. Will be interesting to see how Jankovic adapts to the new conditions. Prefer the handicap to the outright just in case Jankovic does win this one but even if she does, Scheepers could well take a set and make this a close one. Shahar Peer vs Alexandra Dulgheru- Peer -5.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Taking Shahar with the handicap for the second day in a row here. She was extremely comfortable today, winning the majority of the points and having little trouble after securing the first set against Sanchez. Dulgheru, who she plays tomorrow is a consistent player without any major weapons. Peer is better than her in every aspect of them game and although I'm always a little wary with handicaps above the 4.5 region for Peer, she should be good enough on the day to take the match in 2 comfortable straight sets. She beat Dulgheru only last week 6-0 7-5 and see no reason why she can't cover the handicap again. Kaia Kanepi vs Andrea Petkovic- Kanepi -1.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) Favouring Kanepi to pull through after today's performances. Kanepi wasn't anything special today despite the favouring score but the fact is she was only on court for little over an hour so she will be fresh for tomorrow. Petkovic had a lengthy match with Kerber and in these humid conditions, fitness and freshness is likely to be key. If Kanepi was on court for longer I would be completely against her as when she is tired, her shots are all over the place and her unforced errors go through the roof. Would just fancy her to edge this one though if her hitting is on song and her serve isn't too erratic. She has the ability to either hit Petkovic out of this match, or hit her way out of the tournament. Hopefully it will be the former. Yanina Wickmayer vs Na li- Li -3.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) Much better price on this handicap over on Pinnacle if you want this handicap. Opposed Wickmayer on the handicap today and see no reason not to do so again today. Wickmayer in truth is fairly fortunate to have got past Jovanovski today. Was 5-3 behind in the first but managed to take 7-5 and then lost the second. Bojana could have easily taken this in two however it wasn't to be. Li will be a step up and she will be fresh and full of confidence after her AO final appearence. Wickmayer was broken 5 times today and saved a further 8 break points. Putting this together with her 8 DFs says to me that something still isn't right with Wickmayer and Li is the kind of player who will exploit these weaknesses it Wickmayer is still struggling with a little niggle. Only thing I would worry about is Li's lack of practise in these conditions so she may take a bit of time to settle in but a 3.5 handicap, break in both set looks fully within her range.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Ernests Gulbis vs. Philipp Petzschner
Selection Ernests Gulbis (-2.5) GH (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 16/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price 188bet @ 1.90
Reasoning Well, if the last season Philipp Petzschner has been the player that did impressed a lot as he did improved a lot and showed a stable form then now in 2011 season Philipp Petzschner is just not the same player as he has been very inconsistent till now. Petzschner has won in 2011 only from Thiemo de Bakker, Lupescu and Hajek, so from the form point of view he didn't looked well at all that is clear. Speaking about Ernests Gulbis, well it is true of course that he has lost from Benjamin Becker in a clear way at AO, but have to mentionate about that game that Gulbis purely didn't played his tennis then, there were so many errors in his play in that game. Gulbis had only one bad result in 2011 while for Petzschner the single good result from this season is his victory against Thiemo de Bakker. With other words, much more inconsistent did looked Petzschner till now than Gulbis who purely had a bad tournament at AO. Speaking about the difference in class between these two players, well here I will say that there are so many advantages for Gulbis and the german man will have to have a great serving day for to be able to compete against a much much better player than him. All in all, huge difference in class here and also better form if to analyze from the latest tournaments. This game should go only in one direction. Good Luck!

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Albert Montanes vs. Fabio Fognini
Selection Montanes
Strength 10/10
Date 16/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price Unibet @ 1.70
Reasoning Well, not too much activity from Albert Montanes together with some good results have created this situation where Fabio Fognini is rated quite closed with the spaniard's chances. There are no doubts that Fognini can play great tennis on clay but still we don't have to forget that this player lacks some essential aspects in his game. Fabio did played twice against Tommy Robredo and has won two sets, he aslo defeated Thomaz Bellucci being as underdog, so obviuosly that he will be a litter bit overrated at the moment. But, despite all these advantages on the paper and stats there are other aspects much more important IMO which could make the real difference between these tw players. Albert Montanes is a great clay-courter, his expereience is from another level if to compare with Fabio Fognini, also the spaniard possess better qualities as better movement, better variety in the game. All in all, there is all about Montanes not too great start and Fognini's better results till now but have to mentionate that Montanes didn't played at his real level at Costa do Sauipe where he has lost from Ricardo Mello in straight sets. Here at Buenos Aires Montanes has played clear different, better tennis he has showed against Ramirez-Hidalgo, so IMO he should play at his real level against Fognini this time. Good Luck!

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

Sport Tennis
Event Del Potro vs. John Isner
Selection Del Potro (-1.5) GH (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 17/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.97
Reasoning Well, it is already incredible that Juan Martin Del Potro is rated with almost equal chances against John Isner. If to remember well, these two players have played two times against each other and in both games Juan Martin Del Potro was the clear favourite to win the game, thing that he did twice. Now, because of Juan Martin Del Potro's long time of no results the bookies rate these very closed odds between him and John Isner. Well, IMO this huge difference between the odds from today and the odds from the past is muc more due to Del Potro's long pause than something regarding with Jogh Isner. So, speaking about Del Potro I would like to mentionate that he is playing better and better game after game, tournament after tournament, yes he has lost from Verdasco in his last game but he did played much better against other players. John Isner is a player that purely do not possess the qualities to be dangerous from the defence point of view, the best thing you can do, to try your opponent's stability. Isner possess a great serve and forehand, but to break Del Potro will come to be very difficult for him, so IMO Del Potro should have all the chances in this game. Good Luck!

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February (5/10) S.Wawrinka-C.Berlocq-under 20.5 @ 1.88 LOSS (4/10) I.Andreev-E.Schwank-Schwank @ 2.33 WIN (2/10) N.Mahut-A.Kumantsov-Kumantsov+4.5 @ 2.03 LOSS Not a good day small loss,too bad for Wawrinka.Hope that today will be a better day.

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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February

- Michael Llodra -3.5 games AH (vs Julien Benneteau) @ 2.00 with Pinnacle (5pts) - James Blake -3.5 games AH (vs Ricardo Mello) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (5pts) - Radek Stepanek -2.5 games AH (vs Benjamin Becker) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5pts) - Adrian Mannarino -3.5 games AH (vs Jan Hajek) @ 1.952 with Pinnacle (7pts) - Thomas Schoorel (vs Tobias Kamke) @ 2.00 with Pinnacle (4pts) - David Nalbandian -3.5 games AH (vs Potito Starace) @ 1.885 with Pinnacle (5pts)
Llodra d. Benneteau 6-4 4-6 6-3 - LOSS Blake d. Mello 6-4 6-3 - WIN Stepanek d. Becker 6-4 6-2 - WIN Mannarino d. Hajek 6-2 6-2 - WIN Kamke d. Schoorel 6-0 6-2 - LOSS Nalbandian d. Starace - 6-4 6-4 - WIN Very decent day indeed. Schoorel completely capitulated against Kamke, while Llodra was a half-game out against Benneteau, who fought well. Blake, Stepanek and Nalbandian were elementary, while the big one, Mannarino, won with ease :ok

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