richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 i will use this thread to post up speed ratings generated with my new program that i have written and see how it performs over the coming weeks .initial trials have been excellent and i made 22 pts profit yesterday so today i have 6.45 kempton PIQUANTE e.w to take on hot pot fav 10/1 this morning PIQUANTE 82 BUT BEAUT 73+ BOLD RING 73 2.25 lingfield efistorm looks a good bet off low weight but program has flagged PICANSORT PICANSORT 94 EFISTORM 86+ picansorts form is at kempton which is a disadvantage but his double the price offsets this ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Best of luck and welcome to the site. That's a big name you have. :welcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS I have popply golightly and bold ring joint top in my ratings...gl with your bets,i will watch with interest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS picansort finished 2nd ......i got my stake back on bet365 so cant complain .it was a good run and only just beaten by garstang .i will need to judge whether course form will trump the higher rating from a betting point of view as the 3 winners to date all had relevant course experience coming into their races .picansorts was at kempton and although he ran well he seemed to drift slightly right so would probably be slightly better at kempton ......something to keep an eye on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS thanks everyone .....im really looking forward to discussing races over the next few weeks and hopefully testing this program to its limits and getting a few winners in the process...... at the moment its had 3 winners and 2 x2nds from 5 races ive inputted so im very pleased at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS actually id like to pick your brains as to whether horse speed ratings and form translate between the various a.w tracks .im under the impression that form from wolverhampton and kempton doesnt translate directly to lingfield ,yet lingfield and wolverhampton are generally very similar so i would presume those 2 would .kempton is obviously right handed so that causes problems and southwell is fibresand . so im wondering if anyone has any insight into this as it will have a direct effect on my ratings .im particuly interested in form translation from southwell to other courses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS at the moment kempton form seems to translate to lingfield generally ok ,the 2 horses finished 2nd ...but that may be the reason they lost and the other 3 horses that were proven at lingfield and running at lingfield won .tonights race will hopefully give more insight as all todays factors are the same as the rating score Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS I treat Southwell as entirely seperate from the other 3 tracks I tend to treat Wolves as seperate as well as a half way house beteen Kemp/Ling and southwell Some horses go ok at both Wolves and southwell, tho' it might just be that northern trainers use those two tracks so horses tend to run at both For speed figs........ I only use Southwell figs at Southwell If you use RP standard times i reckon the Wolves standards are a bit tough and horses regularly post 20-40 lbs less at Wolves than at K/L, tho this could be accounted for by variations in the track surface which are more pronounced than at K/L The 7F standard at Kempton just looks wrong.........average horses post huge figs over that trip/track - i treat them with caution, otherwise I tend to accept Kemp and Ling figures as interchangeable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS i am using a whole new approach ......i timed 100's of races to determin how weight effected results then determined the time and distance factors for horses behind the winner over various distances .i then spent monthes creating an algorithm to work out the exact time to the millisecond that the horse ran its race .the computer then converts that time to a speed rating based on the weight it was carrying and also gives me a theoretical rating based on todays weight under todays conditions ....its pure science instead of guesswork i suppose...and it stops me effecting the results by guessing or tweaking various factors i wanted to write this years ago but ive only just got the experience and knowledge to complete the algorithm as its nearly 80 lines of coding in its own right.i tested it using visual basic but have now converted it onto a spreadsheet which is why it took so long as that was quite complicated to get the formulas working correctly and giving the same results as the visual basic program which it now does exactly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS for safety i rate the horses last 2 runs together so i have a benchmark as to the accuracy of the results i.e if the horses last 2 results are similar then i generally be confident that the horse is running well and holding its optimum form the beauty is i can see when a horse has posted a fast time even when it finished 7th in a race and i can get big prices as a result on its next run as the bookies tend to right them off based on the position they finished but the form was actually very good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Welcome to the PL, we have a seperate section for things like speed rating and similar systems and strategy, it will be better suited in there. Moved to ATR systems and strategy secition:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS but beautiful won ,bold ring 2nd and piquante 3rd with only just over a length separating the 3 it wasnt a bad result .:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS record to date 3 wins ,2x 2nds ,1 x3rd from 6 races Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS but beautiful won ' date='bold ring 2nd and piquante 3rd with only just over a length separating the 3 it wasnt a bad result .:)[/quote'] nice result.........first 3 ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS a.w racing is pretty poor quality today but ill post up a few races and see how they get on : 4.50 kempton final rhapsody 69 metropolitan chief 67 poor race with poor overall form but for me the fact that METROPOLITAN CHIEF had stall trouble lto and there is barely 1/2 length between the 2 and he is twice the price 14/1 this morning would make him the bet for me in this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 550 kemp: mays boy 88 pippas gift 78 odin 76 mays boy last win is quite good form on the clock and based on that course and dist he will be hard to beat if reproducing that ....only negative i can see is 50 days off track this will be a very interesting race as mays boy has been given an official 9lb rise and has been written off by many tipsters as a result ,yet he should still be capable of posting that fast time under todays conditions according to the program so it will be very interesting battle ....handicapper against speed.computer...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS no luck yesterday unfortunately ......but the racing was pretty poor .. mays boy was never in the race (too poor to be true ) and metropolitan boy ran a close 4th 2lengths away so just missed out but belied his 14/1 quote so not the end of the world so to date 3 wins ,2 seconds ,1 third and 2 losses today ive rated the 4.00 ling decider 78 sleepy blue ocean 77 anjomarba 73 DECIDER didnt look like he handled wolverhampton lto and now returns to lingfield where he has run well recently hovering in the mid 70's on speed ratings ,sleepy blue and anjomarba have been raised in weight whilst decider gets in off same mark as previous rating so a good run on the cards today ,hes 12/1 on betfair and 9/1 generally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS decider is actually trading at 15.5/1 on betfair!!! omg thats way overpriced:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS decider just stormed in at 20/1 !!!!!! made a nice few quid today . couldnt believe that price unbelievable but just goes to prove the computer spotted it straight away .....he was actually the fastest horse in the race ........fantastic result :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulcy Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Only spotted this thread a few days ago. Followed you on this one today! Unbelieveable! Great work! :clap:drums:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS always happy when anyone makes a few quid for themselves ..........i might not be able to post over weekend as im working all day tomoorw and sunday but i might have a quick look tonight and see if i can post a race or 2 .....bookies got spanked today :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS record now 4 wins ,2 2nds ,1 3rd ,2 losses from 9 races Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS tomorrows race 2.55 lingfield ......very competitive with lots of form on offer : chijmes 89 tislaam 87 brandywell boy 82 brandywell boy doesnt look like he'll appreciate an extra furlong based on recent runs so this could be a straight fight between chijmes and tislaam . chimes has been raised 2lbs for recent form and tislaam has been dropped 1lb for his form .chimes is 5/2 in quotes and tislaam is 9/1 so my advice is to go for TISLAAM with a lower draw and better weight but i think chijmes will make this hard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS typical saturday ......no luck today selections finished 4th and 5th but at least tislaam beat chimes and with less than 2 lengths separating the first 5 i guess they were just a bit unlucky today so cant complain got a good run :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Just the way it goes fella. stay cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS a.w racing very poor monday and form not very good so no potential bets today as i prefer to stick to 8f absolute maximum distance to help maximise the ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS tomorrows 2.50 wolv lady prodee 69+ johnny hancocks 66 just for leo 65 not much wolverhampton form on offer but the 2 main protagonists have recent form at kempton which their ratings are from ,lady prodee has won at wolverhampton and is showing improvement and the claimer taking off 7lb effectively wipes out the raise in hcap but the negative is the jockey having never won whilst jonhnny hancocks has a little to find on direct form but the jockey at least is a prolific winner on the a.w ,so this race may boil down to whether lady prodees jockey can break his duck today? safest bet johnny hancocks e.w Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS johnny hancocks finished 3rd ...sp 5/1 was as high as 7/1 this morning :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS just a quick one ......in the 3.50 wolverhampton PIQUANT scored 86 at kempton last week ,with emerald girl only scoring 69 on previous run and another horse coming back after a 169 day layoff piquant should be very difficult to beat if handling the track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS piquant won 15/8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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