richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS and bang .....in it goes 8/1 !!!! nice finish to the day .:drums:cheers 1 placed ,and 2 winners from 3 races my 10 point bet has returned 90 points but im a coward so im pocketing 40 points and gonna play the big bet with 50 points so need to find a suitable race over the coming week to achieve a 500 point + payout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Well done richard ! I didn't get round to rating any races today, but I'll probably get stuck in to Southwell tomorrow. Re - going/class allowances. I never bothered with these until a month or two ago, I just used raw figures based on race times. But with the bad weather and slow tracks in December it got to the stage where every horse at Wolves and Southwell was recording a zero rating so it made the whole process pointless That's when I decided to incorporate going/class alowances but I readily accept that they do add another level of potential inaccuracy to the process. I'm going to stick with the 'new' method for a while 'cos I've had tremendous success at Southwell, but I can always go back to the old ways at the drop of a hat Look forward to tomorrow's selectins ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS if the going is standard/slw then its pointless even bothering ,as i said the average speed rating drops to about 30-40 on slw ground whereas on standard going the time for 5f is consistently around 1-2 secs outside the standard showing that the going allowance is very minimal due to the nature of the all weather track itself ....over longer distances it might distort the ratings but over short distances the race is over before it has any major effect worth worrying about .......from that point of view im extremely lucky as only on a.w and short distances does that work .i look forward to seeing your ratings it will make for very interesting reading im sure.you have to try different things and see what effect it has on results .......my only advice can be to stick to standard going and omit the standard slw form as well as these are red herrings and youll weed out the good ratings hopefully Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 12.50 southwell tomorrow this is an easy race to rate as this revolves around whether WE'LL DEAL AGAIN decides to run to his best .didnt last 8f last time but previously recorded a fast time over c/d and now back to that distance but has now been dropped 5lbs !! in the hcap from when he finished 3rd .has a mid level draw ...hopefully just a blip last time ...... approx price 5/1 lets roll over the 50 pts from today and go for a 300pt+ checkout (gulp).....not a huge price but has everything i look for so may as well go for it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS dont expect to win ....im not that lucky but he's 12/1 in the sporting life quotes that would pay 650 points ....(faints):unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS withregards to your class rating trotter ....it reminded me of a rating i toyed with a few years ago where i split the classes into 0 to 140 lbs or whatever the top rate is . i then assigned each level i.e group 1 ,group 2 etc a weight band allowing for movement between bands so if there was 11 bands there was approx 12 lbs between each band so lets say horse A FINISHED 6 LENGTHS DOWN IN GROUP 2 .....IF TOP OF GROUP 2 WAS 116 LBS ON THE CHART THEN DEDUCT 6 LENGTHS (APPROX 12LBS) GIVES CLASS FACTOR 104 LIKEWISE HORSE "B" WINS GROUP 3 BY 4 LENGTHS SO TOP OF GROUP 3 WOULD BE 104 + 4 LENGTHS WEIGHT +(8LB) =CLASS RATING 112 THESE ARE ROUGH FIGURES OF COURSE TO SHOW THE IDEAS I WAS TOYING WITH BUT YOU CAN SEE HOW WITH WORK THE RATINGS COULD BE ADJUSTED AND USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH SPEED RATINGS OR EVEN ON THERE OWN ...........MY FRIEND ACTUALLY USED MY CLASS CHART TO PICK WINNERS IN BIG HCAPS AND HE HAD SOME BIG PRICE WINNERS BUT I NEVER PURSUED IT SO HAVE NO IDEA HOW WELL IT MIGHT WORK ......BUT IF ANYONE DECIDES TO DO IT FEEL FREE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS I love playing around with ratings !............ I tried something similar to those 'class ratings' for the last 2 Flat seasons for Listed and group races.........basically I worked out a par score for group one, group 2, group 3 and listed and rated the 2nd horse home with that rating, the winner with additional lbs for what he won by and the horses from 3rd downwards minus lbs for how far they were beaten It was good fun but essentially pointless as it's just not logical to assume that, say, all group 3 races are the same quality.......... By 'class allowance' on AW speed ratings i mean something different...... If you use going allowances then you have to adjust them for the class of meeting. eg......if i work out that the track is riding 2 seconds per mile slow on any given day, that equates to 36 lbs in my system, so i add 36 to each raw speed figure. But that throws up a problem with the class of races. If it's a meeting full of Class 6 races then they might be recording slow times because they're useless not because the track is riding slow. So you have to adjust the going allowance for the 'class' of races on the racecard. It's a bit convoluted but the idea is that figures will be comparable on different days and at different tracks because you're allowing for the differences in going and class of meeting. If we could just depend on the surfaces being consistant that would all be a waste of time ! It's been an interesting exercise for a couple of months but I think I'll dump that now and just go back to raw figures based on time - as you say, I can always just ignore form on standard to slow going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS i spent a lot of time playing with the going adjustments also and had a lot of success but its just so difficult to get them right because you can watch a meeting at say lingfield one day and take an average of that days times and decide it was running 2.3 secs outside the norm but what happens if it wasnt the track riding slow just a group of races where the pace just wasnt very good ? your ratings will now be 20lbs out for all the horses you rate that day whereas id rather be 10% out on my ratings because the most ill be out on any given day is 8lb which i can live with if thats the worst that can happen .and you can see the results given i dont use the adjustments any more and i think that proves that they dont really have that much bearing over the short distances as long as the ground is riding relatively normal as the surface compacts under the weight of the horse and rides generally good/firm . so if you notice i try to find the races where the top horses are about 10% better than the rest of the field which is why i dont rate all races..... this then offsets any ground variation i might have miscalculated still giving them a good shout hopefully .....it seems to work ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS with regards to that class rating i mentioned above .....i agree that some say group 3's are better than others but where it came into its own was every now and again if you note down the class position next to the horses using the chart maybe once a week a particular race will throw up a HUGE class differnece in one horse ......then thats the time to bet ......it worked particuly good in hcaps because of the following : lets say trojan horse is running in a big class b hcap today ,last time out he carried 9 st in a group 3 and finished 5 lengths down in 9th position (so on paper he now looks crap) if the winner of a group 3 is say 110 and he finished 5 lengths down so hes now 100 ,in todays race he carries 9st 5lbs (+5) so i now deduct another 5lbs making him 95 today for his class rating for this race lets say the fav for this race is gold runner carrying 8 st 11 lbs won last time out in a class c hcap carrying 8st 7lbs aclass c winner would probably have a rating of say 72 then today he carrys +4 so he now has a class rating of 68 !! the fav is 5/1 and trojan horse about 9/1 , which one do you want to be on the horse that won a class c and has gone up 4lbs or the horse that finished 5lengths down in a group 3 and is now in hcap company ? if i saw a race like this a 68 against a 95 its a no brainer for me ,even if the group 3 wasnt a top draw one keep picking horses like that and your gonna be in the winners enclosure more often than not...... lol......i think one day it will have to be revived and have its own thread on here ......tricky part is getting the difference between classes right ......i mean does anyone actually know how much better a class c winner is better than a class d winner ,likewise group 3 over listed ? the reclassification made it even harder which is why i put it on the back burner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS we'll deal again has been declared a non runner so no bet in that race as the rest are all too tightly rated :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 3.20 southwell today : SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN recorded a 91 at southwell in november and has run really well since at other courses including at lingfield last time where lo and behold he recorded another 91 ! he now returns to southwell off bottom weight !! and a price of 14/1 (faints ) he also has drawn 3 (fantastic ) big run on the cards and will carry my 50point rollover today for a bit of fun taken 14/1 with bet 365 .....750 points jackpot if it wins (yeah like that gonna happen ....lol):cry:nana DONT KNOW WHY HES DRIFTING SO BADLY ......HOPING ITS JUST BECAUSE NO TIPSTER HAS MENTIONED HIM AND NOT THAT THEY KNOW SOMETHING I DONT? ON BET365 HES GONE FROM 13/2 TO 14/1 .....GENERALLY HES 12/1 SO IT COULD BE THEY JUST UNDERPRICED HIM AND RECALCULATED LATER make no mistake it could be my holiday in the caribbean if this wins !!!!! come on me beauty .....lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS SLEEPY BLUE ocean JUST STORMED IN ........HAD TROUBLE IN RUNNING BUT WON BY A NECK IN THE END ....OMG ......IM STILL SHAKING .......750 PTS IN 2DAYS ......STILL CANT BELIEVE THAT :drums:drums:drums:cheers:cheers:spank:spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS fantastic richard............well done mate !............. :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS just collected my first "grand" from the bookies .....this is a sweet moment ..one i'll probably never forget .....im absolutely shell shocked .....just been to pick up my daughter from school and was still buzzin .......well if thats not the ultimate test then i dont know what is ....whod have thought when i started writing last week ....if you said id be picking up over a thousand quid next id have said you were having a laugh .........wow:gimme:beer:drums:drums:cheers celebrations in my house tonight !! and on top of that ive posted the selections on online betting guide in my tips comp so im £12000 up as of today .......thats got to put me near the top .....surely !!!!!! lol might be in line for an extra fiver if i finish top ....lol you know what the best thing was .......i put the bet on with my local bookie for first time in a month and they matched the bet 365 price ,ill never forget his face when i walked in to collect my money ........that was better than winning the race !! i doubt he'll do that again ...he was livid !! i thought i was gonna get banned ........now that really would have been good just realised if i hadnt taken that 40 pts out yesterday id be looking at 2 grand .......oh well would have normally just used bet365 but as i was going past shop on way to school i thought it would be cool to collect in the shop if it won .....didnt actually think it would ......wouldnt have been the same online ....not by a longshot !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS thanks trotter ........its only just sinking in how good this program is .....monthes of work to get to this ......to say it was worth it is the biggest understatement of the year ....im truly blown away ... at least the non use of going corrections has been answered ......didnt need them for either horse .....the goings riding standard at the moment and he just ran the 5f in 59.48 (-1.48) so its smack in the sweet zone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS only just noticed that todays horse lost to my 20/1 winner that i posted up last week decider ,that race has now turned into a hot one !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gungadu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Well done on your win :ok I wish i had seen this thread earlier, ill be keeping a keen eye on it in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulcy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Cracking work Richard! Been following your picks the last week or so! Only put £5 on sleep blue hollow so didnt rake the cash in like you did but profit is profit! Looking forward to your next picks!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Well done, feels good eh. Good times. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS thanks everyone ......have come back to earth now (a bit) ....back to normal tomorrow ....how can you top that ? .......got a few beers in to celebrate so i'll be back tomorrow .....with another grand hopefully ...(yeah i wish !!) probably wont get another winner now for a month ......sods law :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 225 ling tomorrow : our friend decider is back in town !!! last time won at 20/1 over 5f ,today its 6f .form has been franked by sleepy blue ocean today so that was a hot race .....can it be a coincidence? decider 89 pelmanism 86 im not keen on opposing decider in this race as i have an idea he might win again but PELMANISM was closing on the winner near the line and looked like 6f would be more suitable so i have a feeling he will be better over the extra furlong and i expect him to be a better price hopefully so pelmanism e.w if prices are ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS hmmm very disappointed to see pelmanism at 2/1 ? form suggests that he'll reverse form with decider but decider may improve and at 7/1 are they having a laugh ? add that to the fact that radiator rooney is in form and also charles darwin posted a 79 and is showing small signs that his turn will be soon and 2/1 is very poor value in the scheme of things .wont carry my money but it will interesting to watch how it pans out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS im having a small wager on decider ......i dont think he should beat pelmanism but now hes started winning he could improve slightly and that would give him a good shout ,betfair are offering 11/1 !!!!...thats just taking the mickey so just a speculative bet today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 5.05 kemp ability n delivery 100 island legend 86 riffleisone 80 sherjawy 80 island legend has the draw today and is good value at about the 6/1 mark to run a big race but does anyone know how dundalk form translates to kempton ?ability and delivery recorded an exceptionally fast time at dundalk last time but has the coffin draw here so even though his rating is so high i think he will have serious problems getting a run over this 5f ...ISLAND LEGEND E.W FOR ME 6/1 + Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS im possibly looking at another super bet tonight .i'll see how results go today and see if i can raise the capital to attempt another one .....odds at moment are calculating at 98/1 so a tenner could potentially win another grand ......surely lightning cant strike twice ....can it? 2nd stage horse is .....RESTLESS BAY kempton .hes running against some hotpot winners and looks a little out of his depth but i might chance it ....depends on how today goes ,will post later arounf tea time if going to attempt it :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS heres my dilemma : in the 7.05 kemp tonight : stirling bridge recorded a 75 last time easily but now comes into this race having been raised officially 10lbs in the hcap price 2/1,mi regalo won also easily last time also in a rating of 75 and no arrives in hcap company for the first time on a mark 2lbs higher than stirling bridge ......simple enough ..price 11/4 restless bay recorded a 77 in defeat last time ,gets in off same hcap mark but is 10 lbs lighter in the saddle today .....has previously recorded a best on course c/d figure of 84 .....so will he perform today ? will either of those 2 improve past him ? at 14/1 ......its a big dilemma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS in the first race at lingfield today edes dot com recorded 75 at kempton and this is a relatively poor race with bunched up form .....has a squeak but not a lot of confidence but stake building mission so ill have a small wager at 12-14 /1.crap apprentices race but just having a bit of fun today so no harm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 3pts win 14/1 wins 45 pts !!!!! what the hell is going on .....lol backed into 7/1 before off ........somebody knew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS so ill deduct my 3pt stake so i havent lost any money whatever happens ..........12pt saver stirling bridge returns 30 pts 30 pt win restless bay returns 360 + points lets see what happens .......i can relax and enjoy it now as i cant lose no matter what happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulcy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Hi Richard. Could you just clarify your last 3 comments as to what bets you've put on? Ive been reading it through quickly as I'm in work but just wanted to make sure. Ive been following your last few picks so don't want to miss out on any others as you seem to have a knack! Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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