richard-westwood Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS not a bad day today ,had a nice bet on piquant but really wish some decent a.w races would come along :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 2.30 ling weds efistorm 80 estonia 78 freddies girl 74 i like the look of this efistorm ,estonia is forecast fav but there is nothing between the 2 horses on the clock and with a better draw efistorm could just nick this race .early prices are 7/4 estonia with 5/1 + on efistorm .bit of a no brainer for me EFISTORM win only 7 runners so forget e.w 5.4 /1 on betfair with freddies girl 4/1 and estonia 7/4 .......ridiculously overpriced! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS well cant complain there ......jamie spencer stole the race on northern dare and efistrom was given too much to do at the end to catch him but at least he beat everyone else so quite happy with the result from a form reading point of view .........cant account for good tactics .....ride of the week ......efistorm 2nd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS in the 7.30 kempton tonight im going to have a very speculative e.w bet on EVER CHERRFUL this horse was hampered and had an inexperienced jockey on last time and the time before finished down the field but still managed a 69 on the clock in doing so .topweight has recorded 73 on his last run and is favourite whilst ever cheerful has much more experienced jockey on today and is 33/1 !!!! hopefully he will run better than his price suggests :hope hes 10th of 10 in the betting ...lol so any place other than that is an improvement hopefully!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS he was leading to 1 furlong out then finished 5th ....not quite :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 1.50 lingfield today : silver linnet 79 -2 chantilly jewel 78 same jimmy ryan 74 -1 aerial bender 73 +3 very open race this with lots of horses coming into some kind of form .i have noted their positions in the hcap next to the horses to help out and this is whats happened since their best recent speed recording so silver linnet comes out best with top speed and now 2lbs less in hcap today so a big run can be expected .chantilly jewel is faqncied by the bookies today and very much deserves some respect .jimmy ryan has a touch to find on the clock but has been dropped 1lb in hcap today so that offsets that a little .for anyone who likes a gamble aerial bender recorded 73 off 9 st 11 lbs recently and now carries 8 st 7lbs today .that weight reduction may bring about improvement and could run into a place at 66/1 !but overall the strongest bet for me SILVER LINNET 6/1 ,only negative wide draw but 2lb drop from last 3rd makes him very hard to beat today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 2.50 lingfield quick rated this one blue moon the fav recorded a 77 last time and miami gator was roughly the same but blue moon has advantage because of his jockeys 5lb claim today but WILFRED PICKLES 9/1 betfair recorded a very respectable 85 last time out so that makes him the one to be on today in my eyes wilfred pickles e.w approx 8/1 (negative ...wide draw but has speed to cope) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS silver linnet completely missed the break and never recovered ,no coincidence first 3 were drawn 2,3,4 ....need to stick to low draws at lingfield in future when ratings are close .....good lesson today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS seems ive learned a very big lesson today .....just looked back at my best results and found the following : jimmy ryan 3 efistorm 3 piquante 4 johnny hancocks 2 decider 6 picansort 7 piquante 4 all my best reults were with horses all drawn mid/low over the sprint distances so need to keep an eye on it as it makes perfect sense ,it could be the combination of speed and low draw will provide huge dividends Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS same applies to kempton being right handded .....needs to be within 6 of the rail ......but beautiful was drawn 10 .....near side rail and picansort drawn 5 or 6 out ......so very much so the draw is having a huge effect of the results !!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS baiatituer is the best of the lowest drawn horses in the 2.50 all the fancied horse are drawn 7 or above so lets see how he does here ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS omg ....he won and wilfred pickles finished 4th from his wide draw .......need to pay serious attention to this now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS will adjust race write up from now on to include best rated overall and best rated from lowest 7 draws at lingfield ,wolverhampton ,southwell and highest drawn 7 at kempton :rollin could be on to a winner here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS interesting of the 2 races i rated today the highest rated horses in the top 4 and drawn low (6) 1 won and the other finished 2nd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS well lets do an experiment then in the 4.20 wolv i have rated the lowest 7 draws and although some of these have been running on unsuitable ground of the horses that have form KENSWICK (70) comes out top of the low drawn horses so lets see how he gets on carnival dream (67) is also drawn low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS just stuck £20 each kenswick and carnival dream at 7/2 and 15/2 .like to put my money where my mouth is .....should make the race a bit more exciting .dont mind the result ......im learning all the time so i see it as tuition fees ....lol:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS no luck yesterday .......todays 7.35 wolv is easy to rate from both points of view as the top rated are both also drawn low : bluebok 73 duke of rainford 69 on direct formlines bluebok should take care of duke of rainford today but nothings ever guarnteed in this game but the 7/2 on BLUEBOK is a good value bet . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 4.15 lingfield advertisement 90 chief exec 90 nubar boy 84 at first glance this actually is quite a good little race ,advertisement posted a fast time on the canter last time ,chief exec has been running really well and nubar boy has a light weight today so that might bring about a little improvement and puts him in the frame also .from a draw point of view nubar boy is a big negative drawn 10 but advertisement (4) and chief exec (7) have good draws . i cannot split the two really .....advertisement could be better than hes posted but that was a kempton whilst chief exec reared in the stalls and came from last to finish 6th at wolverhampton recording a fast time in the process so is potentially even better ......my advice split stakes advertisement 4/1 and chief exec 14/1 !!! chief exec is huge value but nothing between them on form :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS advertisement won easily never in any trouble .....low draw ,top rated ....bang :clap chief exec will win soon probably on another track ...one to watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS for the record chief exec ran 4th in this afternoons race so nice run despite his big price .....he will definately be winning soon :ok:okcome on bluebok lets end the day on fire :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS couldnt rate today due to work but tomorrows 2.40 kempton dvinsky 92 +2 moguk ruby 89 -2 desert icon 85 -1 desert icon has been running well of late and beat dvinsky at lingfield but dvinsky has improved since at kempton so has home turf advantage today .form over course and distance last time puts nothing between moguk ruby and dvinsky yet early quotes are 9/4 dvinsky and 7/1 on moguk ruby (how the hell do they justify that !!!) no brainer here moguk ruby is 4lbs better for about 2 length beating and has dropped 2lb in hcap whereas dvinsky has gone up 2lbs should be a close race but if dvinsky is fav then moguk ruby should be right on his tail so e.w MOGUK RUBY 7/1:clap will be backing today as that price wont last long Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Richard...........just a quickie if you have a minute ! Just wondered if you include going allowances & class allowances in your figs and wether you adjust to todays weight ........... I've just started including going and class allowances but can't make my mind up wether to adjust for weight carried or to use the raw figure without wt adjustment Also.........when you quote a single figure is it 'latest run', best of last 3, best ever, last run over todays CD, .............I'm most influenced in mine by 'latest run' unless it was over a different trip or eg at Southwell and today is lingfield. In those circumstances I'll tend to use the latest run over similar conditions as todays race. I'd be interested in comparing your figures with mine............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS my program gives me the best recent rating for the last 2 runs with the weight they carried that day then gives me an adjusted rating rating also based on the weight they are carrying today . i have found that its much more prudent to rate the last 2 runs as many many horses meet trouble in running ,turn up on the day under the weather ,have a bad draw etc and flop in one race but when things go right on the next time they can bounce back at sometimes huge prices . its just things didnt go right on the day ,so you get false readings if you only rate the last run with regards to class .....i was discussing this with my friend the other day and my program has one slight flaw at present as follows : IF HORSE "A" HAS A RATING OF 100 CARRYING 9ST AND HORSE "B" HAS A RATING OF 94 CARRYING 8ST 8 LBS SOMETIMES I CAN LOOK AT COLLATERAL FORM FOR A PARTICULAR RACE AND HORSE B IS ONLY A HALF LENGTH BEHIND HORSE A BUT THE RATINGS WILL SHOW 100 AGAINST 94 MEANING I NEED TO FURTHER PROCESS THE RESULTS TO GET AN ACCURATE PICTURE . obviously the rating is a true representation of the actual performance achieved as horse A was carrying more weight and so naturally deserves a better rating but i see it as a flaw which i dont know how to rectify ,but my friend bought up the point that the higher weighted horse has a better official rating so the ratings are actuallt factoring in that class rating automatically and i suppose i can see his point ,but its a bit of a sticking point at the moment on your point i give more emphasis to the raw rating they achieved and if the horse has a big rating and now has a weight 10lbs different then you have to give more prevalence to the theoretical rating under the new weight as it will obviously have an effect my rating is the best achieved on the last 2 runs nearest to todays conditions or if both are similar i will look at the race comments and see if they had trouble in running ,bad draw etc and decide which one best represents the horses real abilty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS further .......i dont use going allowances on the a.w any more as i did a test a while ago and found the ratings were 75% more accurate if just allowed the computer to work it out .i only use the ratings for betting purposes when todays ground is officially standard and the form you are using was also achieved on standard ,and races standard to slow are omitted form wise as the ratings achieved consistently swing up to 30lbs from what the horse is truely capable of . this minimises the effects of any ground variance and that and the combination of sticking to short distances works very well and the ratings in general are very accurate ......you have to bear in mind that spped ratings are never going to be exact as horses runs vary from race to race thats the nature of the game ,they are just a tool to give you a better representation of which horses are genuinely in form ....when the ratings combine with a little luck in running then you get fantastic results . since starting the ratings my view of a.w racing has changed completely as before i used to see this mass of form which seemed all over the place and now when i go to the track i see a list of numbers which allows me to pick decent horses to bet on .....all you need then like i said is that touch of luck but its certainly made it more enjoyable from my point of view as i generally always get a good run now instead of throwing money at horses that never stood a chance in the first place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS id be happy to compare to results ,im always glad of any input ....from my own personal point of view i genrally focus on the higher priced horses as these represent the better value ,in fact i discussed with my friend maybe waiting for particular races where say a 10/1 + is the only high rated horse in the bottom 6 draws putting a fiver on it and if it wins waiting for the next similar race which could be a week later and placing the whole won stake on the horse to see if i can win a huge amount at some point .......could potentially be thousands for a very low stake a 14/1 drawn 3 £5 on the nose wins £75 deduct £5 stake =£70 a week later 16/1 draw 2 £70 stake wins £1190 !!! (and you even got the original stake back !!) if i achieve that just once it will be worth all time and effort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS todays 2.10 kemp replicator 83 final rhapsody 83 nothing between these 2 horses on pure form ,replicator has the slightly better draw today but final rhapsody may be better if he is kept up with the pace a bit more ......FINAL RHAPSODY is twice the price of the fav so is the one for me today 11/2 e.w :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS now if they had kept him up with the pace again he would have won ,omg he came like an express train but they gave him too much to do again !!!! finished 3rd so collected but very frustrating !!! less than 2 lengths were separating the first 5 with replicator and final rhapsody in there so cant complain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS its beyond my usual distance but rated the 3.50 kemp chilli green 93 alhaban 84 chilli green got a little tired last time over 7f but the time was exceptionally fast so if he is held up and lasts out the extra furlong then he should be very difficult to pass approx 7/4 in quotes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS chilli green won easily ......:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS speculative attempt to start my big bet as outlined above 4.25 kemp POPPYGO LIGHTLY achieved 80 against bold ring and but beautiful and thats decent form and with these horses relatively weak he has a fair shout at 8/1 so speculatve bet for me with a view to stake building for the big one e.w bet 8/1 negative extra weight today but poor race balances that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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