richard-westwood Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS in the 3.45 kemp tomorrow MAYS BOY has a penalty but is still rated 82 and he won easily so is potentially rated mid to high eighties or better ,that would be more than enough to win this so he is good value at 3/1+ even with the penalty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS just got back from work and genuinely gutted by that result .....he was recieving a stone and still couldnt win on him ......only recorded an 85 ....... rubbish:wall mays boy non runner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS still ......not too disheartened by it all as the new criteria for jackpot bets will hold up in the long run ......he was only 1/2 length off today and the others qualifiers have all run well so far so i know its going to :unsurehappen ....just a question of when wolverhampton ground very poor at the moment so no bets tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 300 southwell tuesday INGLEBY ARCH has a modest 75 + rating in this average race which is top ,but he has been running in much better class races (class2...now class 6 ) so i expect a good run .....no idea of price at the moment :hopeNEGATIVE 50 DAYS OFF ......BUT CLASS IN ABUNDANCE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS ingleby arch is only 2/1 ......not really a value price ......bonnie prince blue is probably his only real competition on paper(and at his very best could give a lot to do and has had recent run) so i suppose 5/2 would be ok if available .....not a cert but very decent chance given the weights its actually 6/4 in betting now ......too short for me to play at that price ......one to watch instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS just about a length separating the first 3 including ingleby arch and bonnie prince blue .......think fitness told today didnt pick up very well when asked .....unlucky still he ran well and was in the mix just poor price for me to play today but form held up ok ......3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS no races tomorrow as poor overall form and too bunched up ....no clear bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS actually i dont really like punting in apprentice races and dont normally bother to rate them but the 1.10 lingfield has thrown up a bit of a quandry .... shared moment 74 ermyntrude 74 bricks and porter 88 jockeys are a bit .....lets say poor and bricks and porter has only run at dundalk but that form has held up quite well at lingfield with other horses so im going to play on this one and hope the jockey gets his act together ......as hes bottom weight and rated 85+ he qualifys as a jackpot bet (stage 1 ) 10 pts win 5.2/1 betfair =62.2 points:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS another blanket finish ......jockey looked poor to me ...arms all over the place ......less than a length separating first 5 again ......just having some bad luck at the moment ......but they are always in there at the finish ......tide will turn soon would have paid 8/1 as well .......dammit !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS in the last race at lingfield perfect chi has a rating of 83 at kempton but won easily ....now travels to lingfield ......if he holds his form at this track he will hard to beat 3/1+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS omg..... he was travelling well in 2nd then the saddle fell off with the jockey .........the god of the bookies is punishing me for my win .......just need to ride out the storm :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS in the 7.20 kemp tonight advertisemnent has been running well of late and won for me on this thread last week but the combination of different track and 5lb rise in the hcap means he has more to do today whereas GALLANTRY win was better than advertisements on the clock and he has been raised 4lbs for that but jockey takes off 3lb so effectively 1lb worse off for a faster win on this course .....had him priced up as a 7/2 shot and 15/2 !!!! available readily ......no brainer for me e.w bet :ok rated 88 on last run potential 94+ on adjusted ......would win this hands down if running to that mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS omg..... he was travelling well in 2nd then the saddle fell off with the jockey .........the god of the bookies is punishing me for my win .......just need to ride out the storm :loon Strange thing luck eh fella. stay cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS well no luck last night again ......horse just didnt perform on the day ran well below his best but drifted out to 10/1 before the off so someone knew something .........not to worry had 8 losers on the trot whilst testing then had 6 straight winners after so the door swings both ways Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS in the 4.00 southwell today from a speed point of view its a 4 horse race : cape royal 82 -2 litthaam 80 -2 cavitie 75 -1 jonny ebeneezer 74 cavitie is being backed across the boards this morning and is now into fav which is an excellent sign but cape royal and lithaam are trained by milton bradley who has a good strike rate with his horses and they are big prices cant split them today so 2pt cavitie 5/1 1 pt saver cape royal 12/1 1pt saver lithaam 22/1 and how many times have you seen a trainer 1,2 in a race ......this pays 197/1 ......just maybe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kchibberd Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS I have learned that sometimes you can overthink these things. A well drawn horse with a top speed and pace rating is all I look for. San Antonio Southwell 3.30 fits the bill Backed San antonio @ 4.2 and bentley @ 5.5 in the 4.00 southwell today from a speed point of view its a 4 horse race : cape royal 82 -2 litthaam 80 -2 cavitie 75 -1 jonny ebeneezer 74 cavitie is being backed across the boards this morning and is now into fav which is an excellent sign but cape royal and lithaam are trained by milton bradley who has a good strike rate with his horses and they are big prices cant split them today so 2pt cavitie 5/1 1 pt saver cape royal 12/1 1pt saver lithaam 22/1 and how many times have you seen a trainer 1,2 in a race ......this pays 197/1 ......just maybe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS i concentrate on value primarily ,i know that even with losing runs that if my program is sound and i keep mon backing good priced horses that are better than their quotes then sooner or later theyll start to win and i recoup any losses and wait for the big wins to come along .i was 34 points down at one point during testing and i could have gone .....omg im outta here ..........but then i had 6 straight winners at combined odds of 56/1 meaning i was 22 points up .....its hard but you have to trust that the door of luck swings both ways and you just have to roll with it . realistically im over a 1000 pts up so sooner or later the bookies were going to strike back ........its like star wars the empire strikes back .......but the jedi will return ...lol i would only have backed cavitie e.w today usually but the other 2 have better form from about 3-4 races ago and are now down in the hcap so could potentially reproduce that and at big prices it would be foolish to ignore them ......after all if i missed a 22/1 winner id be well gutted i mean lithaams 6th behind duke of rainford is actually some of the best form on offer today and if he reproduces that today then i think he'd win ......i estimate him to be a 7/1 shot and hes 22/1 .........simple probabilitys says keep betting like that and youll always win the long run i did look at that 3.30 race also but the reason i passed was kings counsel has a speed rating of 90 on the flat g/f and now comes to a.w ......g/f form holds up quite well so could potentially be very well in today if he can convert that form but to open for me i have mr emarati top on my ratings of the ones that have run on a.w but he has outside draw so 2/1 too short Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kchibberd Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Please dont think I was having a go at your methods. Thought I would just post my Methods. Front Runners are favoured at Southwell so Mr Emirati discounted with a low pace figure. I also have Cape Royal top rated with good pace figure and ok drawn but too many with high pace figures so I have left alone but good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS no thats ok .......i readily appreciate the input .......cape royal ran a blinder yesterday ....just being touched off at the end 3rd and bently ,san antonio ,and mr emarati all finished top 3 in your race ......so the draw was the deciding factor after all .....mr emarati ran a blinder i think from his outside draw .........unusual goings on at the moment .....non of the speed horses are performing anywhere near their true capabiltys .....the last 4 have run a good 10lbs below their best ........unfortunately with speed ratings you have to rely on the fact that the horse will run its race next time out and unfortunately thats not always the case so you can get losing runs like this ............i dont get disheartened .....i like to have a bet anyway and i could just blindly back any horse but i know the computer will show me a winner soon and a double figure winner is long overdue now so im hopeful :hope todays 2.50 ling i have memphis man and grand honour joint top rated on 76 so im backing both today at 13/2 and 14/1 respectively ,both well drawn so expect a good run today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS in the 7.30 wolv tonight fair pasion is a very quick horse on his day but has an 85 day layoff to overcome .riflessone race was a hot one at kempton and there is nothing between him ,island legend and efistorm ,all have good draws today so it could come down to who gets a run .......efistorm was very unlucky not to have finished in front of island legend lto but today is 4 x the price riflessione low weight top rated 10 pts jackpot bet stage 1 1 pt saver efistorm 18/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kchibberd Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS Had to do some real work today so did not have time for flat racing. Had 3 bets at chepstow though Dromore Hill couldnt be bothered to jump and was 20 lengths behind from the start and Najca De Thaix couldnt even be bothered to race. What a day! Still theres always tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kchibberd Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS I know you like your big priced runners so what do you think of Divinsky Lingfield 2.55. Got him 2nd top rated behind Dancing welcome but 7lb differance on last run. Backed him E/W at 16s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 4.45 south mush mir has recorded a decent time lto and was hampered in the process ......if he translates the form anywhere near at southwell today he should run really well 10 pts win...11/2 at last he storms in easily ..........55pts profit ......recouped all losses ......back to square 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 2.30 ling tomorrow copperwood 85 fedora 80+ green earth 78 right .......new strategy ......i will now only be betting when form is from this days course as form varies quite a lot between courses and quite a few losers are just not translating their form from one course to another... copperwood ran a 76 last time but had trouble in running until 1f home and never had chance to get a run but had previously recorded an 86 over c/d so with a good run capable of better ......fedora has been running consistently og late recording 75 twice .....today he drops 3lbs in the hcap and carries 8lb less weight than when recording his 75 .....if the weight loss helps he could record better today from good draw green earth ran an excellent race last time and should do so again overall any of these 3 could win this on the day but with possible improvement 1pt each COPPERWOOD 11/2 AND FEDORA 16/1 green earth dangerous 8/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS sorry about the reply kchibberd .....have been offline for a few days so feel free to post any selections if you like and ill take a look if i see them :welcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 5.10 kemp tomorrow BLUEBOK seems a better horse at kempton running mid seventies on both recent runs here ......with a good draw today he should run well at approx 5/1 ...1 pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 5.40 kemp jonny hancocks 82 mandys hero 80 lady prodee 77 mandys hero was all out last time but recorded an excellent time but a 6lb penalty and a 7lb weight turnaround with jonny hancocks for 1.75 lengths means the latter should give the fav a good run for his money today ....down 1lb in the hcap also this is for jonny hancocks taking .....fav is 5/2 on betfair JONNY HANCOCKS 7/1 !!!!......no brainer 2 points win its 11/1 with paddy power against 2/1 fav ....whats all that about .......i know he won but there isnt much in it ? if you look at the form lines can they justify sending him off at 5 x the price !!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS i suppose that old adage stands well .......horses for courses ......i have found that SOME horses can translate form from one course to another but the vast majority gain or lose a percentage of it depending on the course for instance ive recently seen 3 horses run consistently in the 80's at lingfield but when at southwell they can barely manage a 70 ,i suppose it makes more sense to stick with what the horse has proven to have done on todays course rather than ask it to do something different ....we all know it applies to the turf racing so naturally the a.w too ..... kempton and lingfield are quick tracks and the form does generally hold up quite well between the 2 as a result so exeptions can be made here but wolverhampton and southwell are definately horse for courses and are generally very slow tracks so course specialists are a must have Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 7.10 kemp tonight aloneinthestreet ran a very poor time last time when winning and that was southwell and with a penalty today i wouldnt seriously backing this horse at 5/4 if it was a 2 horse race .......kuala limper on the other hand has run 93 lto on this c/d ,a repeat of that will make him very hard to beat indeed at 11/4 ......excellent value :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: SPEED RATINGS 8.10 kemp: tricky race this one with lots of form on offer: tenacestream 91 fear nothing 88 sherjawy 85 absa lutte 84 absa lutte has been running ok of late but im not certain 6f is his optimum distance as his best work has been over 5f .theres not much between sherjawy and fear nothing on previous meetings yet fear nothing is around the 20/1 mark and is outstanding value .....he has a poor draw 4 today hence he isnt the selection ....TENACESTREAM ran a blinding 88 when behind chilli green lto and that has been vastly underatted .......today has excellent draw .......big run potential at a fantastic 12/1 !!! at present e.w bet(ALSO BEEN DROPPED 4LB IN HCAP FROM THAT RUN ALONE .....disappointing if he doesnt run well today ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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