Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Decided to leave the Peer handicap, just a tad too high. Have taken a last one for tonight though. Andreas Seppi vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Over 3.5 sets- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Expect a close one here between these two and not so sure the unders should be at a skinnier price. Both players were involved in epic 5 setters in the first round against opponents who you'd feel they should have beaten more comfortably. Seppi had a terrible end to the season rarely winning a match whilst Tsonga missed alot of the mid-end of the season through injury. Due to this, can't see either of them closing it out in straights, despite Tsonga's ranking. Not too sure how he will be feeling after that match against Petzschner, fair chance he may feel it early on and then get into his swing. So if Seppi gets off to a decent start, he may pinch a set early on. One match played between the two so far, which went all the way into 3 sets and feel it may be a close one today.

[Boycie]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Hope you guys played Vedasco in play after he was 2 sets down.I know I did, along with Tipsarevic's mates becoz we all know how the Serbian plays.My insiders from Hongkong told me to throw my life savings at the tip and im glad I did:dude happy punting

Are you joking or your nickname on Betfair is TMO? One very "interesting" guy on their forum :eek

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Did a write up on this one earlier. I'm on Kleybanova with a (-5.5) handicap. You're right' date=' at times she can be erratic and unpredictable, shown through her defeat to Peers. But since then, she beat Schiavone and Cibulkova, and almost Clijsters. I think she'll cover it but if you think not then go with your heart. :ok[/quote'] i have to agree with fishy25 here. Plus she has a very good record here at the australian open...she took a set off henin last year. kleybanova can be ruthless at times as she proved by hammering a pretty useful qualifier in falconi in the first round while only losing one game. Halep has a bright future in the game but she's still developing for me...and she needed three sets to beat oldie kremer in the first round and was also on the end of a heavy defeat to yanina wickmayer in auckland two weeks ago ...only winning two games. kleybanova is a hard hitter just like wickmayer...and i see if she gets the upper hand in ralleys ...i don't think halep has the movement, balance and counterpunching skills to work her way back into the ralleys and keep the ball away from kleybanovas hitting zone which is what you have to do to beat her...she's a heavy girl and a reasonably good defender considering but it's definately the weaker part of her game. Having said all this It wouldnt be an absolute shock if Halep covers this handicap ...as you said she can be erratic and lose concentration...though this is less likely in an important grand slam match. halep is still plucky enough and has a few weapons in her armoury...but i still think the educated guess is to put a small bet on kleybanova to beat the handicap.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Two R3 bets for me so far... - Stanislas Wawrinka (vs Gael Monfils) @ 1.847 with Pinnacle (7/10) I've not been impressed with Monfils at all so far. He was lucky that de Bakker threw the match away in R1 and he really laboured against Gil, especially on serve. That's really quite dreadful form considering Gil is all about the clay. Wawrinka has been clinical so far. Faced two banana skins in Gabashvili and Dimitrov yet swatted both away in straight sets. He's serving well, moving well and a winter with his new coach, Lundgren, has made him a more complete player. Monfils leads the H2H 2-1 and beat Wawrinka last year, but they've been fairly close matches. The courts here are a little bit slower and that will suit the Swiss. Monfils loses his concentration really easily in five-set matches - he still needs to find mental maturity. I see Wawrinka making the quarter-finals here, he is smoothly going about his business. Will be fairly close but I give the Swiss the edge. - Sergiy Stakhovsky (vs Tommy Robredo) @ 2.00 with Stan James (6/10) This is a really good chance for Stakhovsky to go deep in a Slam. The Ukrainian has seen off two fairly average players in Brands and Kubot, so this will be a harder test, but I fancy him to edge out the Spaniard. H2H is 1-1 but Stakhovsky won their last meeting, albeit on a quicker hard court. Not sure his game suits Robredo as he likes to come to the net and hurry the play. Robredo is more of a baseliner who likes to play at his own pace from deep. Robredo's not pulled up any trees, beating Devvarman and an ill Fish, where he lost a set. His serve can go walkabouts too, and that would be a real danger for him if Stakhovsky serves well. Stakhovsky goes on streaks - he can go on a five-match losing run and then put six wins together. I think he can be caught hot here. 2.00 seems reasonable on him, although he was 2.36 when the line opened, so the cash has come. :hope

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) pavlyuchenkova, garcia-lopez and stosur treble at 6-10 boylesports 3 points. pavlyuchenkova is in good form...can't see her slip up against veteran barrois, garcia-lopez has matured a lot and can't see him losing to schwank who got a dream draw against leonardo mayer in the first round, stosur surely cant lose to the out-of-form big game bottler dushevina. gilles muller versus robin soderling over 27.5 games at 4-7 2 points i know the price is short but it's 4-5 with skybet for over 29.5 games which is also a price i like but just to be safe i like the over 27... i reckon muller with his big serving and power can give soderling a tough match here... might even put a small wager on him to cause a shock I also think kleybanova will cover the handicap, the first set in the petrova match will be under 10 games, melzer will cover the 8.5 game handicap, youzny will also probably cover the 6.5 game handicap...as long as he's motivated.. stosur will cover the handicap aswell i think...all these could be worth small wagers ...havent decided the size of these bets yet. anyway, good luck to all. I have a feeling this is the last real big day of betting so hope you all enjoy. i think kirilenko and radwanska are vulnerable to defeats yet...not sure benesova and martic are the ones to do it but mayb will stick small wagers on them for interest.

[owenclass]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Andy Murray vs Illya Marchenko over 27.5 games 5/6 skybet i think this is a bit generous murray has not impressed me so far in the last round and beck had chances to break in the third set even when he was injured Rafael Nadal vs Ryan Sweeting over 25.5 games 5/6 skybet i dont think rafa will win any sets 6-0 again so i think at least one set will be close Maria Kirilenko vs Iveta Benesova over 19.5 games 5/6 skybet i think kirilenko nearly always has hard matches in early rounds i never see her have a easy match and this match will be tough so expect a least 3 sets

[Menschik]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) WTF is doing Kleybanova :-/

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

honestly' date=' I'd advise against this bet. Muller is a dangerous player. [.. snip ..']

Thank you for the insight. I drop the idea of Soderling - Muller Under. I go for Melzer - Riba 3-0 @Pinnacle 1.556 full stakes instead. GL :hope

[Menschik]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Kleymanova ruined my day :-(

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Kleymanova ruined my day :-(

Always the risk with her, very much hit or miss. Approached 50 unforced errors today, which is a stat that's never going to win you matches, no matter how many winners she hits. Thought she would blow Halep off the court today though, not to be :\

[one_love_mufc]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Perhaps it is a set handicap? I do not know much about 188bet' date=' but as they offer Marin Cilic to win at 1.38 and at 1.70 at -1.5, I am pretty sure it is a set handicap.[/quote'] The Dolgo bandwagon rolls on.. lesson learnt read the bet rules before lumping on!

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Fed got the job done eventually, impressive stuff from Simon though. Taking a couple today, may come back with a couple more later depending on the odds shift. Benjamin Becker vs Alexandr Dolgopolov- Dolgopolov - 3.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (6/10) Favoured the Ukranian against Kukushkin a couple of days ago and will happily do so again today. He was impressive on Monday winning in 3 comfortable sets, having opportunities to break in most of Kukushkin's service games. Alongside this, he served 16 aces in just 3 sets, which is a very good return. Came into the slam in decent form with wins over Querrey, and home boy Tomic, with a good show against Simon as well. Becker beat Gulbis in round one in what was the mentally weak affair. Gulbis often after losing the first set, lets his head get down and feels like the world is his enemy. Becker isn't much better in this respect as if things go against him he will play wild shots and get off the court as quick as possible. He is really all power with not too much else, and if his serve isn't firing, he will struggle. Traditionally he doesn't perform too well in the slams, only getting past round 2 in any of the slams way back in 2006 in the US. Dolgopolov is improving all the time and expect him to shoot up the rankings this year. Becker won their only meeting back in 2006 but even then, Dolgopolov took the first set easily, and since then he has matured and developed. Fancy him to cover the handicap here if he is solid throughout. Alisa Klebanova vs Simona Halep- Kleybanova -5.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) Not the best price for this handicap in a women's match but feel the Russian can cover it. Hit a really good patch of form at the start of this season, with wins over Schiavone and Cibulkova, before pushing Clijsters all the way in the third set. If she carries her good form on for a sustained period of time, a top 10 place isn't out of her reach given her age as well. Watched her match against Clijsters, and I've never seen anyone outside the top 5 make Clijsters work so much around the court. Alisa hit winner after clean winner and for the best part of 2 sets, outplayed Clijsters. Looks like she has a mass of confidence after that performance, hammering Falconi for th expense of one game in the first round, meaning she will be fresh for tonights match. Halep needed 3 sets to beat Kremer of Luxumbourg in round one, who it is fair to say is nowhere near Kleybanova's standard. If she struggled against her, Kleybanova should dominate most of the rallies with her hard hitting and win a good percentage of the points. Feel the handicap is a good one also as the best player Halep has played this year is Wickmayer, where she lost to love, and to two. She then lost in the qualifiers in Hobart. Two players very different in ability wise, and form wise, expect Kleybanova to win this without too many worries.

WIN LOSS Minimal profit, too many errors for Kleybanova today. Dolgopolov serving extremely well on a happier note.

[HeresTheKey]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

guys i m quite new to tennis so apologize any bs thoughts my thoughts are 1)there are no big upsets so far in AO 2)Alisia Kleybanova is a great but unstable player.She lost to Sally Peers recently 3)So AH+6games for Halep @ 2,16 pinnacle is great value is it ? opinions?:unsure

it s caled the beginners luck:nana opinions were thoughtfull despite the outcome thanx fishy+segmaniac

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

- Alexandr Dolgopolovv -3.5 games AH (vs Benjamin Becker) @ 1.95 with 188bet (8/10) WIN - Radek Stepanek (vs John Isner) @ 1.813 with Pinnacle (7/10) LOSS - Milos Raonic +3.5 games AH (vs Michael Llodra) @ 1.952 with Pinnacle (7/10) WIN - Blaz Kavcic +8 games AH (vs Mikhail Youzhny) @ 1.892 with Pinnacle (7/10) LOSS - Under 29.5 games AH (Jurgen Melzer vs Pere Riba) @ 1.87 with Pinnacle (6/10) WIN - Jan Hernych +5 games AH (vs Thomaz Bellucci) @ 2.07 with Pinnacle (5/10) WIN

Dolgopolov was extremely solid again, Raonic won pretty cosily, Hernych was heroic and Melzer got the unders covered. Stepanek was a real strange one, seemed in control but once he was broken, he played like a drunk stag-do tourist in Prague. Still trying to work out how Kavcic managed to not cover the +8 handicap despite taking Youzhny to five sets :loon Anyway, no complaints, that's how it goes, and a tidy profit made regardless.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Robin Soderling v Gilles Muller Gilles Muller to win 3-1 41.00 I though I'd give some insight of this one. Muller is as mentioned a very dangerous player and he's beaten Andy Roddick in US open first round in 3 tie-breaks to win in straight sets a few years ago. He beat Nadal in Wimbledon. I can go on and say all he's done in his career but the guy is impressive to be from Luxembourg. He's a giant slayer. One of those who should be ranked top 20 but injuries stop him. Once he's on a roll he can beat anyone that nobody expect him to beat. Robin Soderling have played Australian open five times and never got past the second round. It's a warning signal that Granollers beat him last year and it could be an upset again. He lost to Baghdatis in second round the year before in AO. I think Soda has some curse over him down under. Don't take this to serious though but I feel tempted to go for Muller.

This was probably the most unserious bet of the day. But Robin wins and as a swede I can be happy anyway.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Andreas Seppi vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Over 34.5 games. 1.66 @ Bet365 (6/10) WIN Agnieszka Radwanska -3.5 vs Petra Martic. 1.83 @ Bet365 (6/10) WIN Jurgen Melzer vs Pere Riba. Under 29.5 games. 1.80 @ Gamebookers (6/10) WIN Radek Stepanek -1.5 games vs John Isner. 1.90 @ Bet365 (5/10) LOSS Klara Zakopalova to beat Lucie Safarova. 2.00 @ Betsafe (5/10) LOSS Brainless Zakopalova couldn't hold from 40-0 up after just going a break up in the final and then failed to serve it out @ 5-4. Any other average player would have beaten poor Safarova today. Stepanek was even worse. Isner must be having a laugh at the way he won, he really didn't have to do that much. It was all about Radek being a fool. Again...

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

I'm going against the grain today and will be taking Isner to beat Stepanek @2.1 I think Isner is a better player than people give him credit for. His serve is brilliant, but his movement and returning have both got a lot better in the last year or so. He's 20th seed and I think he should be getting a bit more respect than he is. Plus, Isner made it to the 4th round here last year, so will be looking to defend points. Stepanek's good, but not anywhere near as good as he used to be. I think he's the kind of player who could dip enough, often enough to let Isner break a few times, which should be enough to win. I'd also fancy Isner every time in a tie-break. Only bet of the night, a lot of the other bets I like involve favourites covering big handicaps, but I think it's maybe best to keep and eye on players to watch then pull the trigger when the handicaps come in a bit later in the tournament.

Was a fairly routine win for Big John, even after dropping that first set. All my leans came in as well, which is nice and gives me confidence ahead of tonight's third round matches, but have to keep disciplined and avoid the temptation to get greedy.

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Hi guys,1 more pick for WTA AUSTRALIAN OPEN: SHARAPOVA TO GOERGES @ 1.49 on betfair Sharapova with her unforced errors and double faults would probably lose to top 5 playters currently but she is a better player that Goerges - actually both play attacking game but Sharapova is much more powerful and aggressive.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Was a fairly routine win for Big John, even after dropping that first set. All my leans came in as well, which is nice and gives me confidence ahead of tonight's third round matches, but have to keep disciplined and avoid the temptation to get greedy.

Aye good shout mate, Isner did well to keep his cool (no pun intended) after going a set down. I though Stepanek would nail him but called that wrong. Nice odds for you aswell. Still think Isner's on borrowed time, Cilic should nail him.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

it s caled the beginners luck:nana opinions were thoughtfull despite the outcome thanx fishy+segmaniac

well done mate! halep had that bit more bottle than kleybanova in the big points! all credit to you!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Thank you for the insight. I drop the idea of Soderling - Muller Under. I go for Melzer - Riba 3-0 @Pinnacle 1.556 full stakes instead. GL :hope

well it turns out the match was 29 games exactly so you would have won your bet...oh well it was close though! soderling needed to win th efinal set 6-1! i tipped up the match to be over 27 games so i am relieved i didnt take the over 29 games!! your bet on melzer was an excellent one also!

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Illya Marchenko - Andy Murray OVER 27.5 GAMES @ 11/10 (BET 365) Strength (7/10) .

Sorry for anyone that followed that pile of pish (red impact).

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Decided to leave the Peer handicap, just a tad too high. Have taken a last one for tonight though. Andreas Seppi vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Over 3.5 sets- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Expect a close one here between these two and not so sure the unders should be at a skinnier price. Both players were involved in epic 5 setters in the first round against opponents who you'd feel they should have beaten more comfortably. Seppi had a terrible end to the season rarely winning a match whilst Tsonga missed alot of the mid-end of the season through injury. Due to this, can't see either of them closing it out in straights, despite Tsonga's ranking. Not too sure how he will be feeling after that match against Petzschner, fair chance he may feel it early on and then get into his swing. So if Seppi gets off to a decent start, he may pinch a set early on. One match played between the two so far, which went all the way into 3 sets and feel it may be a close one today.

LOSS Turned my day into a small loss. Seppi served for the second set and blew it. Still the biggest mug when it comes to tennis players. Hope for better tomorrow.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

LOSS Turned my day into a small loss. Seppi served for the second set and blew it. Still the biggest mug when it comes to tennis players. Hope for better tomorrow.

Seen the match. I have to say that Seppi was actually looking a little bit better than Tsonga during the first two sets. If he won the second, he would have chances to even beat him.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) I know this is off topic, but I felt this would be the best/quickest thread for a good response. I don't have a pinnacle account, but I see a lot of their odds that I like. Can someone tell what their experience of depositing and withdrawing is like there? I like to move money in and out of accounts quickly and hassle free, bet365 is brilliant for that, but I have a feeling pinnacle could be awkward.

[Menschik]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) No probs for me. You must have a same email address set to your pinnacle account as to your moneybookers account if you choose to use them though.

[dizzyme]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

As mentioned by few others Dolgopolov looks good to win against Becker. Anna Chakvetadze vs Petra Kvitova Kvitova to win 1.40 bet 365 - 3.5 games 1.72 bet 365 I think Kvitova will get the job done here Chakvetadze lost in the 1st round of warm up tournaments in Hobart and Brisbane, and Kvitova has started in really good form taking the Brisbane title and beating in form Petkovic, Pavlyuchenkova, Cibulkova and Petrova along the way not too shabby host of opponents to have beaten. I expect Chakvetadze to be a headcase as usual (pls don't prove me wrong) and for Kvitova to triumph nicely over her. Michael Russell vs David Ferrer under 28.5 1.90 bet 365 This might be a risky one but i'm willing to take Ferrer runs everything down and has started the season will winning convincingly in Auckland easily disposing of Nalbandian in the final 6-3,6-2. Russell has old legs on him and will find it hard to match stride to stride with Ferrer he had good win over a young Aussie player Ebden but i think Ferrer will beat him convincingly. A score line like 6-4,6-3,6-3 would win it and i think Ferrer is capable of doing it.

Had a good day, here's to more and everyone else as well. :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

I know this is off topic, but I felt this would be the best/quickest thread for a good response. I don't have a pinnacle account, but I see a lot of their odds that I like. Can someone tell what their experience of depositing and withdrawing is like there? I like to move money in and out of accounts quickly and hassle free, bet365 is brilliant for that, but I have a feeling pinnacle could be awkward.

Not sure you'd enjoy Pinnacle if you like moving cash around. You can only make one free withdrawal a month (they charge you £8 for subsequent withdrawals in that month) and you can only deposit and withdraw via Moneybookers, PayPal, etc, not cards. Personally, I love the site and think it's a small price to pay, but it's not for everyone.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Not sure you'd enjoy Pinnacle if you like moving cash around. You can only make one free withdrawal a month (they charge you £8 for subsequent withdrawals in that month) and you can only deposit and withdraw via Moneybookers' date=' PayPal, etc, not cards. Personally, I love the site and think it's a small price to pay, but it's not for everyone.[/quote'] Thanks, that's exactly what I wanted to hear. Pinnacle seem to be the best book around when it comes to tennis, but I don't bet on it as frequently as you guys and like to shop at various places for other bets. If things go well at the Aussie Open, I'll think about betting regularly on tennis and will start a bank at pinny, but for now, I guess I'll be hitting betfair.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Raonic +4 games AH over Llodra @ 1.935 (Pinnacle:4pts) Baghdatis to beat Del Potro @ 2.120 (Pinnacle:3pts)

WIN....Raonic was beastly on serve. Little choke in the 3rd granted. WIN....good win for Baghy. Good night overall....had a couple of small side plays aswell that cancelled eachother out(Petrova h-cap and zakopalova).