Psycho Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) 1) Igor Andreev to beat Nicolas Almagro. 2.80 @ Bwin (5/10) Fancy Andreev here for couple reasons. He's got a bit more solid game comparing to Almagro who is way too erratic and always gives quite a lot away and there definitely will be chances for Andreev to break. Almagro can break down very easily and it will be up to the Russian how much can he and wants to get out of this one and I'm pretty sure he wants a lot. Also like Andreev's chances on a hard court surface. Had it been clay wouldn't bother even looking at what's been offered but to get 2.80 for Andreev win is awesome offer. Andreev has never lost to Almagro on hard (2 meetings) and beat him in straight sets here 5 years ago. 2) Juan Monaco to beat Robin Haase. 2.08 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Monaco beat Greul over 3 sets in the first round. The match he really needed to get some match practice under his belt. Juan reached 3rd round here last year before going out to Davydenko. As for Haase I have problem with his return game or lack of it, so Robin as always will be all about serve and I expect Monaco to be all over Haase and get a win here. The Argie has got much more to offer on return and that is always crucial. H2H is 2-0 in favor of Monaco, both wins on hard, although awhile back, but still he has beaten him and knows what's needed to be done. Besides Haase had a mighty struggle against Berlocq in round 1 and as we know Berlocq is clay player, so there's another signal that Haase is in trouble. Monaco to win! 3) Ivan Dodig vs Novak Djokovic. Under 28 games. 1.88 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Could have taken even with couple games less on total here. Dodig managed to outplay Karlovic but Ivo is really all about serve and Dodig had pretty easy ride on his own serve. Djokovic will be completely different opposition. Nole knows very well that it's important to save energy in Slams, so won't be foolin around and will try to win this in straight sets. They have played once before. Djokovic won the first round encounter in Marseille 3 years ago, dropping just 4 games, so unders back then and hopefully today as well. 4) Stanislas Wawrinka -5 vs Grigor Dimitrov. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Didn't expect to get such a good offer on Wawa. Dimitrov has already played 4 matches here including qualies and that will work against him. He's all about serve and forehand. Other than that there's not much to offer. He might be able to survive some baseline rallies in early parts of the match but when Wawrinka gets going it will be very tough for Dimitrov. I think Wawrinka can really hurt him with his backhand and hitting balls to Dimitrov's backhand. 5 points handicap over 3 sets or even 4 should not be that hard to cover. 5) Xavier Malisse -5 vs Albert Montanes. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Malisse should be fine for a win here. He feels better on hard than Montanes and I believe Monta wouldn't be that much upset if he lost. His deal is on clay, he got one win here, so should be proud with the job he has done. Beating Brown in tough 5-setter tells all you need to know about Montanes' chances here. Malisse will be aggressive and will attack every time opportunity comes. Expect him to win by 5 or more games. 6) Virginie Razzano to beat Maria Sharapova. 4.03 @ Bwin (3/10) Was pondering a handicap here on Razzano but decided to go against it and be greedy to have a crack at a win for the French player. If Razzano will be good enough to cover the handicap she might well be ok to get a win. Wouldn't be a shock to me. Sharapova was below par in the first round despite winning 6-1, 6-3 against Tanasugarn. Tammy was injured and her movement was restricted, yet she still was 3-1 up in the 2nd set. Only failing to get in first serve ruined her chances as Sharapova hit winner after winner on the 2nd serve. Razzano looks fit again and can serve, besides here serve motion is one of the weirdest in the game, so Sharapova will have to get used to that one as this will be their first meeting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Had a good win tonight on the football (see FA Cup thread) so have decided to leave the AO alone. I have a lot of fancies, but I don't have any conviction behind my picks and sometimes the best bet is no bet. I'll be watching with interest and trying to hone my picks for later in the tournament. Good luck everyone betting tonight :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Caroline Wozniacki vs Vania King over 17.5 games 5/6 skybet i think should be close Wozniacki is not playing her best so i think overs should be the bet also an extra bet on 6-1 for wozniacki in the first set 7/2 skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) No luck on overs in Wozniacki match, this is gonna be swift. Too many errors from King. LOSS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Caroline Wozniacki vs Vania King over 17.5 games 5/6 skybet i think should be close Wozniacki is not playing her best so i think overs should be the bet also an extra bet on 6-1 in the first set 7/2 skybet Did anyone go for the first set score i hope people went for it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) I did not get the sense of your thinking mate. You think the match will be close and yet you bet on 6-1, which is not close by any means and basically buries the original bet if it comes through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShanAce Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) I did not get the sense of your thinking mate. You think the match will be close and yet you bet on 6-1' date=' which is not close by any means and basically buries the original bet if it comes through.[/quote'] Spot on :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) maybe i should not have said it might be close but usually wozniacki starts well in the first set so i should have said that the first set might be 6-1 but the second would be a lot closer like 7-5 then the overs bet would have been covered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) The only results that would win the overs would be 7-5, 7-6 - or if King won that set. I do not mean that as an insult, just as a constructive criticism - if you were thinking about the second set being close, there certainly were better bets available - King winning a set was a massive price, Over 10.5 games (in-play) would also certainly be at good price. The original thinking does not make much sense to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Maria Sharapova vs Virginie Razzano under 20.5 games 5/6 skybet im thinking that sharapova starts really well in first sets so i think unders might be best bet also for an extra bet first set score 6-1 for sharapova 7-1 skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShanAce Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) The only results that would win the overs would be 7-5, 7-6 - or if King won that set. I do not mean that as an insult, just as a constructive criticism - if you were thinking about the second set being close, there certainly were better bets available - King winning a set was a massive price, Over 10.5 games (in-play) would also certainly be at good price. The original thinking does not make much sense to me. Or if the first set is 6-1, the total games market would be considerably lower after the first set than the initial total games market. For example: The overs in Wozniacki match after the first set would probably be 15.5 games. Which gives you much more leeway. So IF Wozniacki won 6-3 or 6-4 in the second set, this bet would be a winner unlike your initial bet :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Mayer the first upset of the day, nice one after beating Davydenko. That will surely raise a few eyebrows about both Mayer and Davydenko. Strange result. Edit: Come on, Tipsa! At least you can do it! Right? Ok, Tipsarevic fails to serve out the match. I am not going to watch that. Edit2: Serving for the match again. Two match points (one of them is a rather easy smash), guess what. This has to be some sort of curse. Verdasco hurts his ankle or something, but still puts away third match ball. He was really just faking the injury it seems, as he has no trouble whatsoever. Breaks back. Wins the TB easily. /off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Yep, how often does it happen where the "injured" player wins the match. If they are seriously injured, they just retire. It seems to have a psychological effect on the opponent and wouldn't be surprised if they are told to act more injured then they are out on the court simply to get into their opponents head. Not saying it is always the case, but when players spend the entire 4th and 5th set grimacing after every point but are getting through 20 shot rallies, it seems a bit strange. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) - Tomas Berdych (vs Philipp Kohlschreiber) x Nicolas Almagro (vs Igor Andreev) @ 2.03 with Stan James (5/10) WIN - Mardy Fish (vs Tommy Robredo) @ 1.96 with 188bet (6/10) LOSS Small loss for the day but nothing major. Have to admit, I didn't know Fish's illness woes at all until I logged back on this morning, as I was out all of last night. One of those things, should have done my research more. Double came in, expected Almagro to be a tough win but Andreev is always good for a choke, and once again provided one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Malisse -4.5 games vs Montanes @ 1.806 (Pinnacle:4pts) Sharapova vs Razzano OVER 19.5 games @ 1.840 (Pinnacle:5pts) Mannarino +6AH over Gasquet @ 2.050 (Pinnacle:5pts) Wozniacki vs King OVER 17.5 games @ 1.926 (Pinnacle:3pts) Azarenka/Hlavackova UNDER 17.5 games @ 4/6 (Bet365:5pts) [/qoute] 2wins, 2 losses and a void one on Mannarino for me.Do regret the Wozniacki one in hindsight, knew she was capable of that hence the smaller stake but one I definitely would sidestep most of the time. -0.57pts for the night. Tiny loss, move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) For what it's worth, the bets I like today are: Tomas Berdych (-5.5) @2.00 - Pinnacle Berdych always brings his A game to the Grand Slams and he won his first match with ease. I don't really rate Kohlschreiber and Kamke should have beaten him on Monday, after taking the first 2 sets 6-4, 6-1 but just fell aparat a bit. The German has been losing to top 50 guys recently: Bellucci, Chela, Melzer, Ferrer and I think Berdych, on hard courts, is better than all of them. I'm expecting a comfortable win for the Czech. Kunitsyn (+9) @2.25 - Pinnancle I'd fancy Nadal on a (-9) handicap and in some cases, Djokovic, but can Roddick be taken with confidence to beat it? The American did against Hajek in the first round, but I think sometimes he can be guilty of just doing enough in sets. I'd love to see a tie-break in this one, but realistically I'd be looking for Kunitsyn to keep it close in the first and second and fall apart in the third. He only needs 9 games. Sergey Stakhovsky (-3.5) @1.885 - Pinnnacle Stakhovsky should have no problems against Lukas Kubot, who I think is being over-rated because of his win over Sam Querrey. Querrey's been poor for ages and he's gone out in the first round in the last 3 years in Melbourne, so beating him isn't anything special. Stakhovsky could do with a run in a Grand Slam to cement himself as a top 50 player, which I think he definitely is, based on ability. He easily beat Brands in the last round and I think he'll beat Kubot by a few sets. I also like Troicki (-6.5) against Mahut and Almagro (-3.5) against Andreev. Plus I think Fish should beat Robredo, but I'll need to look more into those games, then reconsider my final selections. Berdych - loss Stakhovsky - win Kunitsyn - win There was also a tie-break in the Tipsarevic v Verdasco match, which, incredibly, Verdasco won! I didn't bet on these and although I missed some good profits, I think watching to get a read on things was the right move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slider24 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Stanislav Wawrinka -5.5 games (versus Gregor Dimitrov) x OVER 38.5 GAMES (Sergiy Stakhovsky-Lukasz Kubot) @ 5/2 (BET 365) Strength (4/10) GL! :hope Loss Kubot didn't hold up his end of the bargain, not taking a set off a guy he was leading 3-0 on H2H, despite breaks early in the first two sets. Stakhovsky will be dangerous in this tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otherside Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Berdych - loss Stakhovsky - win Kunitsyn - win There was also a tie-break in the Tipsarevic v Verdasco match, which, incredibly, Verdasco won! I didn't bet on these and although I missed some good profits, I think watching to get a read on things was the right move. T. Berdych -5.5 WIN mate... :ok Anyway no profit or loss for me tonight. I'm exactly where I was yesterday :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Hmmm interesting results last night. Thought Fish would romp home after the the first set, Robredo still looks dodgy. Big chokes from Andreev and Tipsarevic as well. Glad I stayed away though as I would most certainly of been down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) That was truly ridiculous. I especially love how Tipsarevic moved to AD-40 and Verdasco acted like his ankle is in a terrible mess. It obviously was not, since he was able to run all day after that. That equals to a loss for yesterday after Almagro messed up as he often does. I am kinda tired about all of this, but I will not vent my frustration here again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Hmmm interesting results last night. Thought Fish would romp home after the the first set' date=' Robredo still looks dodgy. Big chokes from Andreev and Tipsarevic as well. Glad I stayed away though as I would most certainly of been down.[/quote'] I think it was the case of Fish playing poorly after the first set. Robredo was nothing spectacular in the sets he won, but Fish was worse. I have not seen the first set, so I can only guess he was just getting into rhythm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Is it just me or is something wrong with Federer? He looks tired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Think it's more of a psychological thing tbh. Simon is 2 up on Fed, nobody else is like that, or even close to a 100% record over him. Simon is running all over the shop though but expect Fed to come through in 4 tbh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Btw early check on tomorrows odds, no way Robredo is favourite against Stakhovsky is available at above evens. Will wait on the handicap for him though, price is likely to drop and he'll probably have a 2.5 which is a gift IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Fed struggling big time here. Draw could be wide open if Simon gets the job done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) My God this would be a really bad loss for Fed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Tipsarevic (+2.5) @2.070 at Pinnacle looks alright' date=' although my pick would be[b'] tie-break played @1.72 with Bet365. Verdasco loves playing tie-breaks (which is strange given his tendency to bottle them) and in his three matches prior to the AO, he had 4 of them. Tipsa less inclined, but he played one with Monfils (another tie-break banker) in the Davis Cup and in three matches with Nando, he's had three breakers, including two that he won (Verdasco rubbish in tie-breaks!) in their meeting in Melbourne in 2008. T. Berdych -5.5 WIN mate... :ok Anyway no profit or loss for me tonight. I'm exactly where I was yesterday :unsure Ah well, I'd have had a clean sweep then. Little bit disappointing, but it's always better to have predicted something that won and not backed it, rather than backed something which lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b10111 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Hope you guys played Vedasco in play after he was 2 sets down.I know I did, along with Tipsarevic's mates becoz we all know how the Serbian plays.My insiders from Hongkong told me to throw my life savings at the tip and im glad I did:dude happy punting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShanAce Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Hope you guys played Vedasco in play after he was 2 sets down.I know I did, along with Tipsarevic's mates becoz we all know how the Serbian plays.My insiders from Hongkong told me to throw my life savings at the tip and im glad I did:dude happy punting yeah I put £15,000,000 on it.. :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) yeah I put £15' date='000,000 on it.. :rollin[/quote'] That's well spent then :D :D :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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