_Ghost_

Key
STR - Shots on target ratio
aF/ aA - Shots on target for/ against average per game
Sup - aF - aA
xG - Expected goals ratio
xF/ xA - Expected goals for/ against average per game
Sup - xF - xA
Match info - self explanatory, F/ A/ GD/ Pts all averages per game
CS - Clean sheets
2+ - Conceded 2 or more goals
FtS - Failed to score
2+ - Scored 2 or more goals
W1+ - Games won by more than 1 goal
L1+ - Games lost by more than 1 goal
Any questions please ask, I have plenty of other leagues available too :-) 

Expected Goals For / (Expected Goals For + Expected Goals Against)

Key
STR - Shots on target ratio
aF/ aA - Shots on target for/ against average per game
Sup - aF - aA
xG - Expected goals ratio
xF/ xA - Expected goals for/ against average per game
Sup - xF - xA
Match info - self explanatory, F/ A/ GD/ Pts all averages per game
CS - Clean sheets
2+ - Conceded 2 or more goals
FtS - Failed to score
2+ - Scored 2 or more goals
W1+ - Games won by more than 1 goal
L1+ - Games lost by more than 1 goal
Any questions please ask, I have plenty of other leagues available too :-) 

Key
STR - Shots on target ratio
aF/ aA - Shots on target for/ against average per game
Sup - aF - aA
xG - Expected goals ratio
xF/ xA - Expected goals for/ against average per game
Sup - xF - xA
Match info - self explanatory, F/ A/ GD/ Pts all averages per game
CS - Clean sheets
2+ - Conceded 2 or more goals
FtS - Failed to score
2+ - Scored 2 or more goals
W1+ - Games won by more than 1 goal
L1+ - Games lost by more than 1 goal
Any questions please ask, I have plenty of other leagues available too :-) 

Very early days with a good few months of the start of the 2018/19 season...
I've adapted my ratings based on pythagorean expectation to the NFL;
Ratings

Play Off Projection

The dust will barely be settled on the 2018 World Cup when UEFAs new Nations League kicks off this September. Based on thier World Cup performances should Croatia really be 20/1 to win the inaugral competition? I don't think so. Looks to me like these prices haven't been updated as often as they should...
Bet
Croatia to win the UEFA Nations League @ 20/1 with Bet365

Betfair are a standout 4/5 about over 2.5 goals, this looks a rock solid wager to me

Betfair are a standout 4/5 about over 2.5 goals, this looks a rock solid wager to me

I posted the above back at the end of May and it’s worth flagging up again. Jeonbuk are still available at 6/1 to win the ACL outright and since the resumption of the K-League they have gone 4-1-0 including a 3-0 victory away at QF opponents Suwon

The 6/1 available about Jeonbuk Motors to win the ACL Outright represents excellent vlaue. So-called Chinese powerhouses Guangzhou Evergrande and Shanghai SIPG have already crashed out of this seasons competition pathing the way for Jeonbuk, a side who topmy Korean ratings, from a nation that have won 4 of the last 9 renewals within a region that has won 8 of the last 9 finals. They play fellow Koreans Suwon Bluewings in the Quarter Finals, if their league match prices are anyting to go by they'll be favs for this, they'll meet Tianjin or Kashima in the semis, they were favs both home and away to Tianjin in the group stages whilst Kashima and Suwon shared favouritsim when they met in the group stages suggesting Jeonbuk will be favourites should they meet the Japanese side. As already stated the Eastern region has won 8 of the last 9 finals so you have got to have the Eastern side favs going into that.
In the other half of the draw the top 2 sides in Iran meet the top 2 sides in Qatar  - for me the slight edge goes to the Qatari sides who since 2013/14 lead the head to head over Iranian sides 12-11-8, over this samer period Qatari sides have an overall win rate of 0.560 comapred to 0.510 of Iran.

The dust will barely be settled on the 2018 World Cup when UEFAs new Nations League kicks off this September. Based on thier World Cup performances should Croatia really be 20/1 to win the inaugral competition? I don't think so. Looks to me like these prices haven't been updated as often as they should...
Bet
Croatia to win the UEFA Nations League @ 20/1 with Bet365

I think Rangers are far too short tonight against Macedonians Shkupi. A bit of perspective on the match, if I apply my pythagorean ratings to Shkupi and fellow Macedonian side Vardar based on last seasons league table there isn't too much between the two sides with Vardar rated 0.576 and Skupi 0.531. In last seasons Europa League (inc qualifying) Vardar played 6 away matches, their starting price from those matches are below. You could argue that every side they faced would be favoured  should they play Rangers, and given my opinion that whilst Vardar are better than Skupi, there isn't a great deal in it - should Rangers really be a shorter price than any of the below 6 teams? I don't think so.

Bet
1pt - Shkupi +3.00 AHC @ 1.95

Updated projections...

Updated ratings and points projections...

I can never resist a go on the play-off winners and this year the 3 National League's have 6 teams playing in them with 2nd and 3rd placed sides only having to win one home match to get to the final. The 3 Step 3 leagues still have the usual one leg semi-finals and then the final. 
National League
I hate it when people say the table never lies as I think it can be utter rubbish. Sometimes it isn't the best side that wins the league it is just the most consistent and that was Macclesfield this season as Tranmere really should have won the league in a canter. They didn't seem to get too many breaks in the opening months of the season, either through their own lack of scoring goals or the ref making stupid errors. I know they have finished 10 points behind Macclesfield in the end, but they weren't trying in their last two games of the season so we can ignore them and that slow start just left themselves with too much to do. They will be playing either Aldershot or Ebbsfleet at home in the semi-final and I don't think they have too much to fear from either side. Ebbsfleet have done really well to get into the play-offs, but it is a season too soon for them and they have had a busy schedule of late so an extra game would be against them if they do get to the semi-final. I have read plenty of times this season that Aldershot are the best footballing side in the division and that doesn't surprise me given the way Gary Waddock likes his teams to play. Their problem is they are in dreadful form coming into the play-offs and I just can't see them being able to beat Tranmere. It seems slightly odd to think that one of Sutton, Boreham Wood are AFC Fylde will be going to Wembley for the play-off final, but that will be happening. Fylde's away form has been pretty ordinary and they have won just 3 of their last 8 away games which were against Gateshead, Barrow and Torquay. They lost 4 of them including against bottom side Guiesley. I just can't see them winning two away games against 4th and then 3rd to get to the final. Boreham Wood have only won once away in their last 6 games on the road and that was against an out of form Wrexham. Sutton's home form has been superb bar a real stinker of a performance against Bromley which was on TV. That is their only loss in 10 at home and I really do think it will be 2nd v 3rd in the final. After that I think Tranmere will have too much for them and they will want to atone for their poor performance at Wembley last season.
National League South
Dartford are warm favourites here and given they only lost the title thanks to a 89th minute goal from Havant they deserve to go up. The problem is that will be hard to get over and although they have a week to get over it there has to be a feeling at the club that they shouldn't be in the play-offs. On the plus side they have only failed to win 6 of their home games all season which is pretty impressive. The rest all finished quite close to each other points wise and Chelmsford stole 3rd place on the final day. That could be key for me as I would fancy them to win their semi-final against whoever they will get. Crucially they were one of the 3 sides to beat Dartford at their place this season and for me they offer a bit of value to win promotion to the National League. Given how often they have been in contention for promotion this could finally be their year.
National League North
Harrogate pushed Salford close, but in the end they just didn't quite have enough. Like Dartford they have only failed to win 6 home games and they only lost 2 of those. That is seriously impressive, but I just wonder if the pressure got to them late on and it could happen again here. Interestingly as good as their home form is they only beat Stockport and Chorley of the other 5 play-off sides at home and they drew with the other three. Kidderminster are the team I like here. Strangely enough they have to play the exact same match they did on Saturday in their first game. Bradford Park Avenue won that 2-1 with an injury time winner which meant BPA got into the play-offs. Kiddie probably took their foot off the gas a bit as they couldn't move from 4th place and I fully expect them to put in a totally different performance in their first game. Win that and they will have to win at Harrogate, but if they can force a draw in 90 minutes then anything can happen. Brackley seem to be focused more on the FA Trophy Final given their form of late. Stockport's away form has improved a lot of late and they could be a danger as it wouldn't surprise me if they reached the final.
Bostik Premier
There really will be no justice if Dulwich don't go up. I have been to plenty of Dulwich play-off games and they always find a way of losing mostly in the final, but this season is the first time they have finished 2nd and they were miles clear of the rest of the division something a comfortable 3-0 win over Folkestone last week demonstrated. A lot has happened off the pitch and it is a shame a semi-final and a possible final won't be at Champion Hill, but it would be great for the club to deliver promotion despite all the issues with the ground. I think they will have too much for their 3 rivals and although they are a short price I think they have every right to be and they should follow Billericay into the National League South.
Evo-Stik Southern Premier
The 4 teams in the play-offs reached between 100 and 97 points and all managed at least 99 goals which is staggering. There was a massive gap of 19 points back to 6th place as well. I was surprised Slough were favourites though as they have had a really busy schedule of 9 games in April. I just can't help feel that will catch up with them in the play-offs. Kings Lynn will have two home games and they have lost just twice at home all season. I think they will see off Weymouth in the semi-finals and I think they will have too much for either Slough and Kettering as well.
Evo-Stik Northern Premier
If you thought the other Evo-Stik league was tight then was was amazingly even tighter with just 2 points separating the 4 teams. They have all played either 8 or 9 games in April so it could be which side copes with the hectic schedule the best. I'm going to chance Farsley here as they are hitting form at the right time. They have only lost one of their last 9 games and although it was against Warrington I still think they come into this in very good shape. They have been scoring plenty of goals as well having scored 22 in their last 8 matches and will clearly be a threat up front. 
At the moment only Betway have them all priced up so you will have to have an account with them. Usually I would play singles, but with my strongest two picks Dulwich and Tranmere both pretty short I am just going to stick the 6 teams in a heinz and see where that gets us. At current odds a 10p Heinz would win you £877.55 and would cost £5.70 and given it has been another profitable season I think it is worth throwing a few quid to see if we can end on a high.
Any match bets I think are worth having will go up as we get to them. 

Big nights for Fulham and Brentford who don't even kick a ball; a victory for Cardiff away at Derby will see the hosts slip out of the play off places on my projections....

Not one for the weekend in the strictest terms but here seems the most appropriate place; Brentford are available at 10/1 for a Top 6 Finish. They currently reside in 10th spot 4 points off the Play Off places with 3 games remaining. Fulham or Cardiff are already assured of the Play off berth with Aston Villa almost certain to join them. Brentfords final 3 matches are QPR (h), Barnsley (a) and Hull (h) - I make them no more than 6/1 to win all 3 matches which would take them to 74 points, 5 points more than Middlesbrough and Millwall currently (final 2 occupiers) have. The teams currently residing between 5th and 11th all have much tougher run-ins and in some instances will be taking points off each other;
Boro
Derby (a), Millwall (h), Ipswich (a)
Millwall
Fulham (h), Boro (a), Aston Villa (h)
Derby
Boro (h), Cardiff (h), Aston Villa (a), Barnsley (a)
Preston
Norwich (h), Sheff Utd (a), Burton (h)
Sheff Utd
Birmingham (a), Preston (h), Bristol City (a)
Bristol City
Hull (h), Nottm Forest (a), Sheff Utd (h)

Plenty to like about Vieux Lion Rouge...

Plenty to like about Vieux Lion Rouge...

Plenty to like about Vieux Lion Rouge...

Football is my main game but with it being a relatively quiet week I've had chance to delve in to some golf betting for the first time in a while.
In golf I like to keep things simple; I look for current & course form using my own 'adjusted par' ratings for each tournement to identify potential wagers.
Luke List ticks both boxes for me; in his previous 4 tournements he's been -5.5, -2.8, -12.8 and -1.2 on my adjusted par ratings and scored -11.6 and -0.9 on his previous 2 visits to the track.
He's available at 25/1 with Skybet paying 8-places (Best price 28/1)

I am not AJ's biggest fan; I never been, I think he lost twice in the Olympics and was very, very fortunate to become an Olympic Champion in 2012, if those games where anywhere other than London, he wouldn't have walked away with a gold medal. That all left a sour taste in my mouth and I have always been very reluctant to give him any credit. I feel he was expertly guided on his journey to become a professional world champion and Eddie Hearn must take enormous credit. That being said, that all changed the night he beat Wladimir - he showed that nght that he had absolutely unquestionable heart, he was out on his feet in the midrounds and I think a younger Wladimir would have finished him off, but he didn't and AJ got his second wind and bludgeoned him into submission.
Now onto Mr Joseph Parker, in his earlier career he was always hyped as the man that will derail AJ's attempts to become world champ, highlight reel knockouts were common place on social media. After watching his last few fights I feel that that is alls it was; hype. I have seen absolutely nothing in Parker since he's stepped up in levels that suggests this will be anything other than a routine win for AJ, probably by knockout.
I think a slow start is on the cards as both may be wary of the others power - AJ in rounds 4-6 would be my tentative selection

At around the 2/7 mark I think Dillian Whyte is too short; his two best wins came against Helenius and Chisora, both by points, his fight with Dave Allen went the distance so I have some serious doubts over his power, even at fringe world level, I also don't feel that technically he is the best of boxers either.
Lucas Browne has 22 knockouts in 25 wins; he's knocked out Chagaev, granted at the end of his career but the only man to knock him out prior to that was Wladimir, similarly he knocked out Francesco Pianetta, again the only man prior to do that was Wladimir, he has since been knocked out by Kevin Johnson.
I think that if Whyte wasn't a Matchroom fighter the odds would be alot closer than they are currently - 3/1 about Lucas Browne is a fair enough price for me, I also wouldn't put anybody off backing Browne by KO at around 6/1
 

For anybody who's interested below are my end ratings from last season;

The 2018 renewal of the MLS Cup kicks off this weekend; below are the first round of match prices

Outright
It's of no surprise to see Toronto and Atlanta head the market for MLS Cup glory as those sides come out 1 and 2 on my ratings, the former however may be worth opposing in the early weeks as they are in the last 8 of the CONCACAF Champions League.
A couple of teams catch my eye for different reasons;
Firstly, Real Salt Lake. RSL ended last season as the 3rd best side in the Western Conference on my ratings, they started slow but after finishing fast they just missed out on the play offs, I'm hoping they can pick up where they left off and outperform their odds of a best priced 50/1.
The second side I'm interested in is Orlando City. I'm going against my ratings here as they finished joint-bottom of the Eastern Conference along with DC United. I'm taking a punt on the Florida side on the back of some impressive transfer business in the close season; they've improved practically every area - defender Lamine Sane comes in who has started 11 matches in the Bundesliga this season, Sacha Kljestan comes in from NYRB as one of the best central midfielders in the MLS, he's joined by fellow midfielders Justin Meram (Columbus) and Oriol Russell (12 starts for Sporting Lisbon this season and a fomer MLS Cup Champion in 2013) as well as 3 of the best college prospects. Again I'm hoping they can outperform their odds of a best priced 50/1.
Bet
Real Salt Lake to win the MLS Cup @ 50/1 Skybet
Orlando City to win the MLS Cup @ 50/1 Betway