vicsuna

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A
Napoli have scored at least 2 goals in their last 9 matches in Serie A.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Lazio’s last 5 away games in Serie A.
Fiorentina have failed to win their last 18 matches in Serie A.
Inter have won their last 5 matches in Serie A.
You can find interesting 33 Football Betting Streaks for 25.09.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-25-09-2019-15819

Newcastle vs Brighton
It seems silly to suggest that relegation six pointers can take place this early in the season but there is a feeling that it's exactly the case when Newcastle host Brighton for this 5:30pm kick-off on Saturday evening at St James' Park. Both sides have been loitering around the bottom three so far this season and defeat here could be a worrying sign for the losing team.
Newcastle began their season with back-to-back defeats with new manager Steve Bruce facing criticism from all quarters. It had appeared that their form had turned round when they earned a shock 1-0 win away to Tottenham and then held Watford to a 1-1 draw at home. However, the 3-1 loss to Liverpool ended their unbeaten run before it had really got properly started. Bruce is arguably doing better than some anticipated but the expectations weren't very high.
Brighton fans developed a sense of optimism when new manager Graham Potter oversaw his side hammer Watford 3-0 away on the opening weekend. Unfortunately, it's been pretty bleak since then with 2 draws and 2 defeats. The 2-0 loss at home to Southampton was particularly demoralising. The Seagulls need a win here to prevent this spell without a victory extending to five league games.
Just 1 point separates these two sides in the league so neither team will want to lose this game. Brighton might have to do all the travelling to get to this match but their record at St James' Park over recent years hasn't been too bad. Newcastle have only won 1 of the last 5 meetings between the two teams at their own stadium. Brighton are also unbeaten in the last four encounters between the sides. I'm not sure I can split these two teams in this game so I have to back a score draw.
Draw @ 3.25 with Unibet
BTTS @ 2.00 with RedZone

Everton vs Sheffield United: HT/FT Draw/Everton 
Everton are the team with most Half Time/Full Time Draw/Wins at home in the each of the last 2 seasons 7 in 17/18 and 6 in 18/19. 
Everton had the most draws at half time at home (10) from all Premiership teams last season. They are on 6 games win streak at home in the league and none of their matches so far this season at home were half time/full time draw/win. Everton had 5 such games out of 6 home matches vs newly promoted sides in the last 2 seasons. Sheffield United have drawn both of their away games so far this season and seem to be tough to crack, so I like the odds above 4 and a late win for Everton.

Brighton vs Burnley: Draw
Burnley won both games vs Brighton last season after a run of 5 draws between the two teams. Burnley’s coach Sean Dyche has faced Brighton 11 times, drawing 6 games or more than 50%. Last season’s win at the AMEX stadium was actually Dyche’s first there after 3 draws and 2 losses. 2 out of 4 games between Brighton and Burnley in the Premiership ended as draws.
Brighton have won 80 points in 80 Premiership games since coming back to the elite level of English football. Brighton are the only team in the last 2 seasons besides Southampton whose home matches are more likely to end as a draw than any other outcome. I generally see a little less than 50% chance for a draw in this game so odds above 3 look like value to me.
P.s.: As a Manchester United fan I hope we win vs Leicester. Saw a graph showing that based on expected goals Manchester United should have been second after City this season but maybe this is because of those missed penalties. I just do not think we are as bad as 8-9 place as some say. May bet on Maguire to score anytime as often players score against their former teams.
 

Eibar vs Espanyol: Eibar to win
Eibar’s performance since the start of the season has been gradually improving after 3 away games even though they only won 1 point so far. Eibar lost 2:1 the first game as they missed a lot of chances vs Mallorca, drew 0:0 vs Osasuna and the team almost managed to take a point from last season’s best home side - Atletico Madrid scoring twice in a thrilling 3:2 game.
Meanwhile, Espanyol are yet to score a goal in La Liga this season losing twice at home 0:2 vs Sevilla/0:3 vs Granada in last game and drawing 0:0 away vs Alaves. Espanyol have a hard time replacing Borja Inglesias’s 17 goals from last season (35% of all their La Liga goals) as their second most prolific scorer last season scored just 4 goals. 
Eibar have won 5 out of 10 games vs Espanyol in La Liga and 3 out of 5 at home, including the most recent 3:0 win at the start of 2019. Eibar’s coach Jose Luis Mendilibar has won 10 out of 18 games vs Espanyol and 6 out of 9 at home. Espanyol is actually Mendilibar’s favorite team to play against as he has the most wins in his managerial career exactly against the Catalan team.

Brighton vs Burnley: Draw
Burnley won both games vs Brighton last season after a run of 5 draws between the two teams. Burnley’s coach Sean Dyche has faced Brighton 11 times, drawing 6 games or more than 50%. Last season’s win at the AMEX stadium was actually Dyche’s first there after 3 draws and 2 losses. 2 out of 4 games between Brighton and Burnley in the Premiership ended as draws.
Brighton have won 80 points in 80 Premiership games since coming back to the elite level of English football. Brighton are the only team in the last 2 seasons besides Southampton whose home matches are more likely to end as a draw than any other outcome. I generally see a little less than 50% chance for a draw in this game so odds above 3 look like value to me.
P.s.: As a Manchester United fan I hope we win vs Leicester. Saw a graph showing that based on expected goals Manchester United should have been second after City this season but maybe this is because of those missed penalties. I just do not think we are as bad as 8-9 place as some say. May bet on Maguire to score anytime as often players score against their former teams.
 

Roma v Sassulo
Genoa v Atalanta
 
btts and over 2.5

Brighton vs Burnley: Draw
Burnley won both games vs Brighton last season after a run of 5 draws between the two teams. Burnley’s coach Sean Dyche has faced Brighton 11 times, drawing 6 games or more than 50%. Last season’s win at the AMEX stadium was actually Dyche’s first there after 3 draws and 2 losses. 2 out of 4 games between Brighton and Burnley in the Premiership ended as draws.
Brighton have won 80 points in 80 Premiership games since coming back to the elite level of English football. Brighton are the only team in the last 2 seasons besides Southampton whose home matches are more likely to end as a draw than any other outcome. I generally see a little less than 50% chance for a draw in this game so odds above 3 look like value to me.
P.s.: As a Manchester United fan I hope we win vs Leicester. Saw a graph showing that based on expected goals Manchester United should have been second after City this season but maybe this is because of those missed penalties. I just do not think we are as bad as 8-9 place as some say. May bet on Maguire to score anytime as often players score against their former teams.
 

Eibar vs Espanyol: Eibar to win
Eibar’s performance since the start of the season has been gradually improving after 3 away games even though they only won 1 point so far. Eibar lost 2:1 the first game as they missed a lot of chances vs Mallorca, drew 0:0 vs Osasuna and the team almost managed to take a point from last season’s best home side - Atletico Madrid scoring twice in a thrilling 3:2 game.
Meanwhile, Espanyol are yet to score a goal in La Liga this season losing twice at home 0:2 vs Sevilla/0:3 vs Granada in last game and drawing 0:0 away vs Alaves. Espanyol have a hard time replacing Borja Inglesias’s 17 goals from last season (35% of all their La Liga goals) as their second most prolific scorer last season scored just 4 goals. 
Eibar have won 5 out of 10 games vs Espanyol in La Liga and 3 out of 5 at home, including the most recent 3:0 win at the start of 2019. Eibar’s coach Jose Luis Mendilibar has won 10 out of 18 games vs Espanyol and 6 out of 9 at home. Espanyol is actually Mendilibar’s favorite team to play against as he has the most wins in his managerial career exactly against the Catalan team.

I'm a Man United fan and I think we are as bad as 8th or 9th. There is simply no experienced midfield quality playing today. I think you see a really disjointed game from United, where they are unable to create much/anything. The stats don't lie. This team has won 3 of their last 13 league games. 4-0 Chelsea and 2 fluke wins over West Ham and Watford where they were outplayed for vast periods of the game. A good beating from Leicester could be the start of the end for OGS. Hopefully Potch has a fallout with Levy and become the new manager when Solksjaer gets his marching orders.
Just a ridiculous kneejerk reaction to appoint the guy in the 1st place, based on a last minute dubious penalty against PSG in the CL. The team has been useless this season. Would any other huge club such as  Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus, PSG, Porto, Benfica, Ajax, Dortmund be in such a bad position?
All very well to go down the youth path, but there has to be a mix and blend. It is not nearly the same as Fergie winning with boys, because those guys had all played along side each other for 6 years. I'll be very surprised if United even score and expect them to get zip from this game.

SATURDAY EPL PREDICTIONS 
Liverpool vs Newcastle 1(4-1)
Wolves vs Chelsea X(1-1)
Man u vs Leicester 1(2-1)
Brighton vs Burnley 1(2-1)
Sheffield untd vs Southampton 2(1-2)
Tottenham vs C.Palace 1(3-1)
Norwich vs Man city X(2-2)
SUNDAY 
Bournemouth vs Everton X(2-2)
Watford vs Arsenal 2(0-3)

Wolves and Sheffield united are the strongest draw of the matchday. Burnley giving great fight at wolverhampton and equalished at the last minute of the extra time. In my opinion with the same game Burnley take the three points. All systems with lucky formation.

Bologna always scores goals in the second half ? 
anyway, my pick from Serie A this weekend is a draw between Atalanta and Torino. The game is played at a neutral stadium of Parma as Atalanta is reconstructing its stadium, so there shouldn’t be huge home advantage.
Atalanta has the best Serie A record in 2019(44 points), second is Juve(40) third is Torino(39). Atalanta was also the highest scoring Serie A side last season, but this all-out attack strategy doesn’t work against the top sides.
Atalanta did not win 70% of their games vs top 8(Juve, Napoli, Inter, Roma, Lazio, Milan and Torino) and drew 50% of those games or 7 ties out of 14 matches last season. Even when you take out the two best sides Juve and Napoli out of top 8, Atalanta drew 5 out of 10 games vs rest of top 8.
Torino won 4, drew 4 and lost only 2 games vs the best of the rest(Inter, Roma, Lazio, Milan and Atalanta). Torino conceded the least amount of goals in those games and did not let one goal in two games vs Atalanta last season(2:0 at home and 0:0 away). Torino had 2 draws and 2 losses vs Napoli and Juve fwiw.
Torino drew 13 out of 19 away games last season and they are the team with the most draws in Serie A since they returned to the top tier in 2012. Their record is 92 wins, 94 draws, 82 losses in all Serie A games since 2012/13 season and 33 wins, 53 draws and 48 losses from the away games during that period.
I understand that Torino may be a bit tired after losing vs Wolves in Europa League but odds above 4 are too high in my opinion.
 
 
 
 

Cardiff vs Fulham
The Championship action kicks off early this weekend with the Friday night game between Cardiff and Fulham that's set to kick-off at 7:45pm at the Cardiff City Stadium. It's a battle between two sides relegated from the Premier League and looking to bounce back up to the top flight with immediate effect. However, both sides are enduring mixed fortunes so far.
Cardiff are labouring their way through games right now. There has been a improvement recently with the displays in the 2-1 win at home to Huddersfield and the 0-0 draw away to Blackburn a lot more positive but the cohesion aspect of their play is still a big issue. The 3-0 hammering at home to Luton in the EFL Cup 2nd Round wasn't surprising given Neil Warnock's lack of care for that competition but it's left a number of questions around certain fringe players.
Fulham have been tipped to push Leeds for the title this season but Scott Parker's side are some way off that pace right now. Three wins on the trot have been sandwiched by an opening day defeat to Barnsley and last week's loss to Nottingham Forest at home. The Cottagers were also eliminated with a 1-0 defeat at home to Premier League side Southampton in the EFL Cup 2nd Round in midweek. It's still hard to tell where this Fulham side will end up.
The head-to-head meetings makes for some grim reading for Cardiff fans. The Bluebirds have only won 1 of the last 9 encounters between the two clubs. That includes winning only 1 of the last 4 meetings that have taken place in South Wales. Goals are common in this fixture over recent years with just 2 of the last 8 games between these two ending in less than 2.5 goals being scored. I'm not sure I can separate these two teams. I fear Fulham could edge it but Warnock always gets us up for the big games. I'm going to have to back a score draw here. 1-1 or 2-2 I think... and that's optimistic because something still isn't right with our team at the moment.
Draw @ 3.55 with Unibet
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.86 with Betfair
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Last week was one of my best in a while.  I had West Ham at +250 in a number of acca's and my biggest bet was the Liverpool/Arsenal over.  Only game that really cost me money was United losing, but that's going to happen.  Their expected goals were nearly 3 and the expected goals against was the second lowest for the weekend.  It happens.
I've only made one bet for the weekend and its a big one. Man United +110.  This is just nuts.  I've stated for weeks I have Southampton tipped for the drop.  United isn't great, no.  But they are miles better here.  They've played a very pleasing brand of soccer (yes I'm a yank) the past few weeks, and I just can't imagine how I'm getting +odds in this game.  And if for no other reason there is absolutely no way United can afford to drop any more points after this start.  I'll be back tomorrow night to post the rest of my thoughts, but this one is just a bad line in my eyes.

Not an official bet as I won't bet against my own team, but I couldn't put anyone off taking Arsenal at 2.4 (bet365) to beat spurs.  Arsenal were OK in defeat at Liverpool, while spurs were dreadful at home to Newcastle, and to some extent are lucky to have 4 points on the board already having not played well in all 3 PL games to date.  Taking form and home advantage into account, i'm not sure why Arsenal are as big a price as they are. 
 

man utd cannot be trusted at all after previous two games. the players cannot handle the pressure or expectation and it seems solskjaer is putting a lot of faith on rashford scoring goals but he is young player and still needs a lot of experience. i think from now on man utd is going to bust a lot of coupons. i don't see them winning many games. pogba is also playing defensive role which will limit their chances to create in front of goal. 
chelsea has got a lot of youth with plenty of energy and that's their good asset however they don't convince me that they can keep a clean sheet in matches which is a problem. the promotion side like sheff utd typical like to play open games and that could mean goals in this match. i also think sheff utd has maturity in them to get something like a draw
it was shock to me that crystal palace won last week but then i knew they are deadly on counter attack. it's only when they need to boss the match they are useless. they sat back and beat man utd in the end but honestly if zaha leaves this teams is heading for relegation.
i think bournemouth are overpriced. you can always rely on bournemouth scoring at least once. leicester is a lot weaker this season. their only saving grace is vardy and his pace but if he doesn't get the service they don't win. it will be close but bournemouth to claim a score draw seems to me like a good bet
i hated watching newcastle beat tottenham last week. they won't it after defending very deep when they got ahead. they will be back to their useless self here. i like watford and i think they have a lot of creative ability and energy. the cup game will give them the boost and could win this
norwich had a flying start this season but i feel west ham are coming into form right now. they've had two decent results on their travels and 3 goals in the back of the net of brighton last week will give them confidence. i think this when they go on unbeaten run and have some consistency. they fact they are playing this match at home suggests to me a solid three point in the bag

This post from @Tiffy few months ago made me think I do not want to bet against Brighton this season as Tony Bloom - one of the most successful UK punters surrounded with computers has made a calculated bet to sack Chris Hughton and appoint Graham Porter. So far his bet is paying off. I reckon Brighton will not lose vs Southampton at home and will win a lot more points than most would expect.

it was good start by sevilla. i hope they can continue their winning run.
without reading too much into atletico bilbao win over barcelona last week, i think they will find getafe very hard at home. getafe was a solid side last season and at home they should narrowly win maybe 1-0

-Norwich and Chelsea:
Norwich btts. 
I feel this game will be a hard result for chelsea to swallow. Without a near cemented starting 11 it is hard to get going. Defense is an issue! Can see us conceding more than we are going to score. It is a must win game for Chelsea morale i feel, but I'm going to try cash in with good odds on Norwich.
-Liverpool and arsenal:
BTTS draw
You would think liverpool would win naturally but this will be an interesting watch. I might still skip this in my bet as this game could go to either team.
 
-Man utd and crystal palace:
Man utd HT/FT
I never believed in the 'Ole at the wheel' United. However this is a crumbling palace team. United should be good enough to have a comfortable win.
 

Been a pretty good start to the season for me.  Although I've been dead wrong on some teams, the bets I've put in have been so far, so good.
early game, someone up top found Norwich +1 at evs and well, I need that line available to me because I've seen nothing close to that. I like Norwich and put a small play on them at +0.75 at -110.  Norwich seem to get goals for fun.  They led the championship in goals last year at just over 2gpg and seem to picked up right where they left off.  Chelsea a bit of a team in flux imo. Jury still out on Lamps as a manager and it's going to take him a bit to find his best 11.  I'll tell you right now, they have major questions at the back.  Seen both their games in full and they have issues.  Midfield is strong for Chelsea but I'm not convinced they have any finishing power up front to score goals.  I think Norwich hangs around and this one has 1-1, 2-2 written on it - I'm very happy taking the home team with +0.75 here.
I'm not getting involved in the Brighton/Southampton game at all, but said it before, I've got Saints tipped for the drop, so I'd again back the home side gun to my head.  
Leicester seems a good play to me at Sheffield, but tbh, I can't get a great read on them at all, and I have to think home team will be doing all it can to scrape for points here.  Pass again.
I absolutely think United will win at home vs Palace, but that's a heavy price to pay there.  I wouldn't mind a United -1.25 at evs, but I'm not finding it, so I may play ingame with a slow start.  United start the season in good form and I just don't think Palace has the pieces to challenge them here.  I do like the 2-0 final score prop and may take a poke on that.
West Ham been one of those teams I've been dead wrong on this year, and well, I'm going for it again.  It appears to me they should have a full roster to choose from and the talent they have I don't think I can pass them again getting +250 to win at +150 or so for DNB.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me but I'm on West Ham again here.  Watford is nothing special and there'll be pressure on both teams here to get a result. More pressure for the home side, I'll take + odds all day long.
Game of the week is the late game Saturday, and unfortunately I'm not going to be around to watch or see lineups.  But, to me this game is all about goals and o3 is worth a punt.  Liverpool obviously has plenty of gk woes and that will be trouble.  VVD can only do so much, and in my eyes, Arsenal are exactly the kind of team that will give Liverpool fits in the back.  Massive pace in the likes of PEA and Pepe. Lacazette is a clinical finisher.  And Dani Ceballas has been just lights out terrific so far.  All that said, Liverpool is always a tough nut to beat at home and well, they still have a few great players in attack.  Arsenal's defense is suspect at best.  David Luiz certainly not the answer.  This one just screams end to end action with plenty of chances.  
?

Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Correct score 2:0
Last season the most common correct score in the Premiership was 2:0 and so far this season there has not been one such match after 2 rounds.
4 out of 10 Premiership games between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Old Trafford have finished 2:0 for the Red Devils. The average Premier League match at Old Trafford had 2.2 goals for Manchester United and 0.2 goals for Crystal Palace.
The only PL goals for Palace at the Theatre of Dreams came 15 years ago when they lost 5:2 and sir Alex was still in charge. Actually since Ferguson retired, 3 out of 6 games between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Old Trafford ended 2:0 with the most recent being a 0:0 stalemate.
Manchester United had 7 2:1 wins last season (5 at home) and only 2 2:0 wins(none at home), but clearly the team has improved defensively and should concede less goals this season so those 2:1s may become 2:0s.
Expected goals data since start of the season shows 1.76 expected goals for Manchester United and 0.7 against them on average. Crystal Palace's average match had 0.555 expected goals for them (lowest in the league) and 1.535 expected goals against them.

Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Correct score 2:0
Last season the most common correct score in the Premiership was 2:0 and so far this season there has not been one such match after 2 rounds.
4 out of 10 Premiership games between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Old Trafford have finished 2:0 for the Red Devils. The average Premier League match at Old Trafford had 2.2 goals for Manchester United and 0.2 goals for Crystal Palace.
The only PL goals for Palace at the Theatre of Dreams came 15 years ago when they lost 5:2 and sir Alex was still in charge. Actually since Ferguson retired, 3 out of 6 games between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Old Trafford ended 2:0 with the most recent being a 0:0 stalemate.
Manchester United had 7 2:1 wins last season (5 at home) and only 2 2:0 wins(none at home), but clearly the team has improved defensively and should concede less goals this season so those 2:1s may become 2:0s.
Expected goals data since start of the season shows 1.76 expected goals for Manchester United and 0.7 against them on average. Crystal Palace's average match had 0.555 expected goals for them (lowest in the league) and 1.535 expected goals against them.

Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Correct score 2:0
Last season the most common correct score in the Premiership was 2:0 and so far this season there has not been one such match after 2 rounds.
4 out of 10 Premiership games between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Old Trafford have finished 2:0 for the Red Devils. The average Premier League match at Old Trafford had 2.2 goals for Manchester United and 0.2 goals for Crystal Palace.
The only PL goals for Palace at the Theatre of Dreams came 15 years ago when they lost 5:2 and sir Alex was still in charge. Actually since Ferguson retired, 3 out of 6 games between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Old Trafford ended 2:0 with the most recent being a 0:0 stalemate.
Manchester United had 7 2:1 wins last season (5 at home) and only 2 2:0 wins(none at home), but clearly the team has improved defensively and should concede less goals this season so those 2:1s may become 2:0s.
Expected goals data since start of the season shows 1.76 expected goals for Manchester United and 0.7 against them on average. Crystal Palace's average match had 0.555 expected goals for them (lowest in the league) and 1.535 expected goals against them.

I am not keen to bet a lot early season.My first look though.Norwich vs Chelsea.Yes its an early kickoff and can go either way but i feel Chelsea is due a win here.Those Arsenal odds though are a bit tempting for a double chance at Liverpool with a minimum stake.