Neubs

NHL Picks for Wednesday November 27
RECORD:
Bets won = 33 Bets lost = 32 Profit = +$9.17 (from RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's picks are:
5 STARS = Blues (at +138 or 2.38) at Lightning 2 STARS = Panthers (at +138 or 2.38) at Capitals 2 STARS = Golden Knights (at +117 or 2.17) at Predators 2 STARS = Jets (at +125 or 2.25) at Sharks 1 STAR = Ducks (at +127 or 2.27) at Coyotes The Blues pick is based on three betting systems at a time, including "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup", which goes like this:
"Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
In this case, St. Louis is undergoing a two-game losing skid, while Tampa is riding a three-game winning streak. Since the odds on the Blues are indeed larger than 2.25, we are betting them tonight!
Have a nice day all!
Professor MJ
 

First surprise this evening with Dortmund only Draw 3-3 against Bottom Team Paderborn after 0-3 Down at HT.
For Saturday i didn´t see any surprise Results coming. Some tough Games but see not realy a Draw in these Games.
I´ve got the Wins from Gladbach, Frankfurt and Bremen in Single Bets.
Also i´ve got Combo from Leipzig, Leverkusen and Bayern Munich.
For me it´s seems to be a "clear" Matchweek - but we will see.

Tough Week i think. See only my Potters to Win, but only because Wigan away most Games are Shit. If they play at Wigan or against any other Team i would stay away. Will see how it work´s with the new Coach. Other Bet for me is Swansea. For me maybe the next Mid-Week Game of Milwall at Home against Relegation Opponent are much more important then this Game against Swansea.
Also i think about a Double of Leeds and Brentford - maybe here have anyone some Opinions about these Games or this Double?

Due to illness not only are the tips up later than usual, but there will be no previews either. At the moment there are 7 FA Trophy bets for Saturday.
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365
Gainsborough 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365
Maldon & Tiptree 1pt @ 16/5 with BetVictor
Dartford 1pt @ 59/25 with Marathon
Hornchurch 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
Bognor Regis 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor
Workington 1pt @ 4/1 with BetVictor, Betfred and William Hill
Have now had chance to look at the National League and have added 2 bets
Chorley 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365
Bromley 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365
 

First surprise this evening with Dortmund only Draw 3-3 against Bottom Team Paderborn after 0-3 Down at HT.
For Saturday i didn´t see any surprise Results coming. Some tough Games but see not realy a Draw in these Games.
I´ve got the Wins from Gladbach, Frankfurt and Bremen in Single Bets.
Also i´ve got Combo from Leipzig, Leverkusen and Bayern Munich.
For me it´s seems to be a "clear" Matchweek - but we will see.

Tough Week i think. See only my Potters to Win, but only because Wigan away most Games are Shit. If they play at Wigan or against any other Team i would stay away. Will see how it work´s with the new Coach. Other Bet for me is Swansea. For me maybe the next Mid-Week Game of Milwall at Home against Relegation Opponent are much more important then this Game against Swansea.
Also i think about a Double of Leeds and Brentford - maybe here have anyone some Opinions about these Games or this Double?

It has been a very profitable week with a money made last weekend and 3 out of the 4 bets winning in mid-week. Saturday I have 7 bets and a little unusually most of those are at Step 3.
Barnet v Stockport
After the first few games of the season I added Barnet to the list of ante-post bets as I thought they had looked promising early on. Ever since then they have been pretty poor and it sums the league up that despite that fact they are only 8 points of the top of the table. They have won just twice in their last 10 league games and they were against AFC Fylde and Chorley. The 3 draws in that spell weren't bad points, but if I was having an outright bet now it certainly wouldn't be them. It wouldn't be Stockport either, but after their horrid run of form where they lost 5 on the bounce, a run started with a 3-0 loss at Chorley, they have been in very good form on the whole. They have lost just one of their last 6 league games and are clearly back in decent form. They look over priced to me and I am happy to take a chance at 3/1.
Bradford Park Avenue v Leamington
I can't really work out why Bradford are the outsiders here because in my view the prices should be the other way round. With their former manager back in charge they look an improved side. They beat Hereford in his first game back and then I watched them in their 1-0 defeat to Gloucester where I saw enough to think they could well stay up. They then followed that up by conceding 7 without reply in defeats to Southport and Kettering, but they were much better again last week when they were 2-1 up with 7 minutes to go against Kings Lynn and ended up losing 3-2. Kings Lynn are a very good side though and Leamington are not and if they can take that performance into this I think they can pick up 3 points. Leamington have picked up just 1 point in their last 7 games and they have conceded a huge 22 goals in that spell. They even managed to concede 3 in the game they got their point in against Chester. Granted there isn't a great deal in it, but for me Bradford are looking the better side at the moment and with home advantage they certainly should not be over 2/1.
Brightlingsea Regent v Cray Wanderers (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
I don't get the price here either with Cray looking huge at 17/10. Cray have only lost 2 games in the league all season and they are unbeaten in their last 6. The two defeats were against Folkeston and Enfield so two of the best teams in the division. They go to a Brightlingsea side who have picked just 1 point in their last 8 games and that came against a poor Wingate & Finchley side. That was also the only game they didn't concede at least 2 goals in during the spell without a victory. Cray should be odds on for me and at 17/10 look the best bet of the weekend.
Cheshunt v Carshalton (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
3rd time in a week I am having a bet on a Carshalton game. In the end they had a bit too much for Frome in the FA Trophy on Tuesday night although it turned into a bit of a goalfest. They have drawn their last 5 league games, but they really ought to be able to beat a struggling Cheshunt side who have lost their last 6 league games conceding 19 in the process. League wise this is the easiest fixture they have had since before the run of draws and they really ought to get back to winning ways in the league.
East Thurrock United v Leatherhead (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
Granted Leatherhead have had a fairly kind fixture list of late in the league, but they did beat Hornchurch in the run of 5 victories. They look a much improved side and although East Thurrock are a good team and are doing well since their relegation, I think they are over priced at 16/5 to win this. My feeling is there isn't much between these two sides which is why the price is an attractive one from a value perspective.
Redditch v Hitchin (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Redditch have only won two league games this season with both coming over August Bank Holiday weekend. They have had a run of 8 league defeats on the bounce and Hitchin could well make it 9 on Saturday. Hitchin are only 5 points better off than their hosts, but they are in much better form. Bizarrely their only defeat in their last 6 league games was against Leiston, but they then went and defeated Coalville, the only team to have beaten them in their last 10 games. Redditch have only scored 3 goals in their last 8 games as well so there is every chance 1 will be all that is needed to give Hitchin the 3 points.
Nuneaton v Stratford (BetVictor Southern Premier Central) & Bognor Regis v Merstham (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
More than happy to carry on opposing Stratford as I have done twice of late including last Saturday. Nuneaton are looking pretty good at the moment and have won 6 of their 9 home league games, indeed it is away from home where they have struggled. They ought to win as should Bognor who host Merstham. Bognor looked hopeless earlier in the season, but they have now won 6 of their last 7 league games including a 6-1 hammering of Margate on Tuesday night. Merstham look a poor side this season and have lost 8 of their last 9 games including the last 6. It really should be a home win and to get over 2/1 about the both Nuneaton and Bognor winning looks a good price to me.
Stockport 1pt @ 61/20 with Marathon
Bradford Park Avenue 1pt @ 21/10 with William Hill and BetVictor
Cray Wanderers 3pts @ 17/10 with Bet365
Carshalton 2pts @ 13/10 with Bet365
Leatherhead 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
Hitchin 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365
Nuneaton/Bognor Regis 2pts @ 2/1 with Marathon

Maldon & Tiptree v Folkestone Invicta
It was clear after watching the highlights of Maldon's win over Leyton Orient on Sunday that they are not your average Step 4 Non-League side. They are much better than that and I was really impressed with them. To beat a League 2 side away from home despite having 10 men for some of the 2nd half really takes some doing and there was no fluke about the result. It was being reported that they had only lost one game all season in all competitions, but when I looked it up it turns out that loss was via a penalty shoot out in the League Cup. So technically speaking they have not been beaten in 90 minutes so far this season. They look to have plenty of class throughout the side and if they were in the same league as Folkestone I believe they would be challenging for promotion. The one concern would obviously be how they react after that famous win on Sunday, but given the cup run hasn't got in the way so far I don't see why they wouldn't want to keep the run going. Folkestone did have the weekend off so they will be fresher and they are having a good season themselves having lost just twice in the league. I do think though there is every chance Maldon are the superior side here and I am amazed they are as big as 2/1. If it wasn't for that slight worry about coming off the back of Sunday then I would be even stronger on them, but I really do think the price is very wrong and given home advantage they should be favourites for this tie not Folkestone.
Maldon & Tiptree 2pts @ 2/1 with BetVictor 

Was looking awful at 2 down and Folkestone getting a penalty. Luckily they missed that and Maldon went on to score 4 in about 20 minutes. Not counting my chickens yet though given the 1st half

BetVictor Southern League Central Double
There is every chance that Tamworth and Hednesford will finish 1st and 2nd in this division this season and they look bankers in their respective Tuesday night games. Hednesford travel to bottom side Leiston who hopeless. Granted they had a 3 game spell where they picked up 7 points, but they then went and lost 8-0 to Bromsgrove last weekend. That is the 2nd time they have conceded 8 this season and they have conceded 58 in just 15 league games. In the 11 games they have lost just 2 have been lost by a single goal and Hednesford on the -1 handicap at 13/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power looks a good bet as well as putting in them in a double. Hednesford scored 5 on Saturday in the FA Trophy and they will surely be looking to get around that number here. Tamworth host Alvechurch who are nowhere near the side who got to the play-off final last season. They have won just 3 games in the league and Tamworth should bounce back from their FA Trophy defeat on Saturday. The double pays 1.26/1 with Marathon.
Carshalton v Frome
This is an FA Trophy game which obciously couldn't take place on Saturday because Carshalton were in the FA Cup. I put up the home side there and they did well but ultimately found Boston too good. I just wonder if that effort might hinder their performance here. Frome were relegated last season, but are currently top of their division having lost just once in the league. They won on Saturday although to be fair they were playing the bottom tam Barnstaple. That did mean they had a comfortable afternoon though and that might just be a better prep than Carshalton had. At 3/1 with BetVictor they are worth a play.
Hednesford -1 3pts @ 13/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power
Hednesford/Tamworth double 3pts @ 1.26/1 with Marathon
Frome 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor

A late winner from Ebbsfleet helped make it a profitable day on Saturday with Fylde also picking up 3 points. Hopefully I can end October on a good note especially as I have my first max bet of the season and there are 4 bets in total.
Bromley v Stockport
Bromley manager Neil Smith said after the 5-0 thumping of Halifax on Saturday that no one fancied them to be at the top of the table challenging for the title. He clearly didn't read my ante-post preview then! They showed how much strength in depth they have in the squad on Saturday as they had a couple of players missing but those coming in were more than up to the task and it was a superb performance especially in the 2nd half. They are very close to being even money and I think that is a hell of a bet. Their only defeat at home came against Barrow and their is no disgrace in that and apart from that they have been seeing off teams. I would have them around the 4/7 to beat a Stockport side who have struggled away from home all season. The win at Dover was only their 2nd away win all season and that doesn't say much because of Dover's terrible record at home. Also the winning goal, as good as it was, was a complete fluke and they also lost at York in the FA Cup. Going to Bromley is a going to be a much tougher test especially as it will be their 2nd long journey in 3 days for the part time County. In my view Betway's 19/20 looks a complete gift.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Barrow
Seems a bit harsh on Barrow to ask them to go to Torquay on Saturday and then to Dagenham on Tuesday, but that is what the fixture list has thrown up. Barrow's run of 7 wins came to an end on Saturday as Torquay beat them 4-2 although they weren't helped by the fact John Rooney was sent off for a handball which may not have been. Clearly they are a good side, but Dagenham are good as well and they have only lost once in their last ten. They have made themselves very hard to beat and won on Saturday beating Wrexham. I think what makes Dagenham value to win the game is the fact its a 2nd long trip for Barrow in such a short space of time and that they are hard to beat.
Dover v Eastleigh
I have to take on Dover at home. Stockport were a big price against them on Saturday, but I doubted Stockport's ability to win away from home. Dover duly lost at home again though and it is hard to see why they are such short priced favourites to win this. Dover aren't especially in good form either with just 2 wins in their last 9 games and they have only picked up 1 point in their last 4. Eastleigh are solid if unspectacular and they showed that again on Saturday when drawing with Woking 1-1. That was their 5th draw in their last 10, but they have only lost 1 of those. They look in better shape than Dover at the moment, especially as Dover suffered more injuries on Saturday, and I would make them around 7/4-13/8 so for them to be as big as 61/25 that looks too big for me.
Sutton United v Halifax
To a certain extent I think I got away with the Ebbsfleet bet on Saturday as not only did they have to play with an outfield player in goal for the last 15 minutes, but Sutton were the better side in the 2nd half. I know it sounds daft saying that this looks a good opportunity for them to win again given they are bottom of the last 10 form table with just 1 win in that time, but I think it does. That improved performance on Saturday sets them up for this and Halifax have to travel to South London for the 2nd time in 3 days and for a part-time side that is going to be pretty tough, especially given the drubbing they got on Saturday. They aren't in the best of form either with no win in 3 in the league having drawn with Chorley and lost to Boreham Wood and they also lost to Harrogate in the FA Cup. This game just strikes me as one that could be one of those strange looking Tuesday night results on paper, but in theory there is hope for Sutton in my view and at 2/1 they look a spot of value.
Bromley 5pts @ 19/20 with Betway
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 33/20 with Marathon
Eastleigh 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon
Sutton 1pt @ 2/1 with Betway 

A good night on Tuesday with Royston winning 4-0 at 3/1 and the Nap's Tamworth also landing the spoils. With the FA Trophy this weekend the only league games are in the 3 National League's and I have 6 bets.
Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde
I am not surprised Fylde made a change of manager a couple of weeks ago as things just haven't been right there this season after their play-off Final defeat in May. The thing is though they have a good squad that should be challenging at the right end of the table and I am going to take a chance on them on Saturday on the back of a hammering of Peterborough Sports on Saturday in the FA Cup. Danny Rowe hasn't done a great deal so far this season, but he scored a hat-trick on Saturday and that might well see him kick on now and start scoring goals in the league. To be fair to Boreham Wood they have been in decent nick winning 3 of their last 4 games, but Fylde for me are the better team and if Saturday has given them a massive confidence boost then I think they can win this.
Sutton United v Ebbsfleet United
Taking a bit of a flyer here as Ebbsfleet are bottom and have only won two league games, but they do seem to have improved since sacking Gary Hill. They lost 2-1 against Maidenhead in their only league game since, but it was an improved performance and then they beat Woking in a replay in the FA Cup on Tuesday night. The other reason for thinking they could get 3 points here is the fact Sutton are in poor form as well. In their last 10 games they have only picked up 1 more point than Ebbsfleet and they then got hammered 5-2 in their FA Cup replay on Tuesday night at Billericay. Granted they were a bit unlucky to not win the first game given it need a late goal from the keeper to send it to a replay, but Tuesday was especially poor. Coming off the back of the win Ebbsfleet might just give them edge here and I think they are worth taking a chance with.
Woking v Eastleigh
Given Woking haven't won since the final day of August it is amazing they are still as high in the table as they are, but they have picked up 6 draws in their following 9 games which has helped. Obviously that means the draw is a slight worry and if Eastleigh perform like they did when they lost at Fylde on BT Sport a month ago then they wont be winning this, but that is their only defeat away from home in their last 5 away league games. That loss is their only defeat in their last 9 away games as well. They have drawn half of the other 8 and they did cost me last week when only drawing at Welling, but I think they are over priced still to win the game. As mentioned above Woking lost their replay whereas Eastleigh had little trouble in getting past Welling at the 2nd attempt.
Curzon Ashton v Kettering
I took on Curzon in their last game and Blyth beat them 1-0 and that made it just one point in their last 9 league games now. They look the worst side in the division at the moment and although it might seem odd to want to back the bottom side to beat them that is exactly what I am doing. Kettering aren't great either, but getting Paul Cox in as manager is a huge coup given his track record and I am slightly surprised he has wanted to take on the job. This looks the perfect first game for him and the only way it could have been better is if it was a home tie. Even without Cox I would make these two the same sort of price so add Cox into the mix and the over 2/1 quotes look on the big side in my view
Farsley Celtic v Brackley
Obviously Farsley cost us on Tuesday night, but I did point out that their run of wins wasn't as good once you dug deeper than the bare facts suggested. They offered little against Kidderminster and although arriving to the ground late would not have helped, they couldn't cope with an improved Kidderminster side. Brackley are having another good season and performed with great credit in the FA Cup against Hartlepool last weekend despite losing 1-0. They have only won 2 of their 7 away league games this season and they came against Kidderminster (who had lost every home game at the time) and Curzon so it doesn't say a great deal. That is the concern for me, but they are a better side than Celtic so hopefully that will win the day. They have continued to be well backed since I put them up and clearly the Asian punters agree with me on this one, but I wouldn't want to chase the price down much more than it is as I think the value has almost gone now.
Hemel Hempstead v Eastbourne Borough/Wealdstone v Tonbridge Angels
I most admit Hemel are getting close to a price I would just have a single bet on as they bafflingly continue to drift. The only game Hemel have lost at home in the league this season was to Wealdstone and they had a few injuries at the time which didn't help matters. They are looking very strong this season and did very well to overcome Havant late on in their last game a couple of weeks ago. This week Eastbourne announced that they needed £40k desperately and that meant they let their manager go. One player has already left because of a need to slash the wage budget and they have only won 2 of their last 10 games. For me Hemel should be at least 4/6 so the 10/11 is big. Wealdstone lost in an FA Cup replay to Maidenhead, but they did well in the two games and were in front in the first game. The only game they haven't won in their last 10 league games was a 4-1 defeat to Havant and Tonbridge are nowhere near that level. Tonbridge did surprisingly beat Braintree 5-1 2 games ago, but the other 4 of their last 5 games have all been defeats. Wealdstone do look home bankers.
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 47/20 with Marathon
Eastleigh 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 and Betfred
Kettering 1pt @ 58/25 with Marathon
Brackley 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor (price now gone 19/10 best currently)
Hemel/Wealdstone 2pts double @ 1.57/1 with Marathon

For me today´s game all with Draw Potential. Only i see QPR and West Brom with wins. I´ve personal got bet the Draws in Milwall-Cardiff, Birmingham-Blackburn and Preston-Leeds Games...
Interessting to see for me today if Jones can made the Turnaround with my Potters at Sheffield today.

A small profit on Saturday thanks to Dulwich, Harrogate and Hartlepool. Was nearly so much better with 3 of the other bets drawing but certainly happy to keep things ticking over. Onto tonight and I have 4 bets.
Kidderminster v Farsley Celtic
The home side usually get backed from the Asian punters and this has happened yet again with this match tonight. Earlier this morning Farsley themselves had been backed into 6/5 and then the market has made a massive shift towards Kiddie and they are as short as evens now. The reason the Asian market punters love Kiddie is I think because they always seem to produce good stats on the shots both for and against side of things. This of course though doesn't actually mean a great deal in my view when it comes to results on the pitch especially at this level. They have only managed 4 wins in the league this season and have been dumped out of the FA Cup by lower league opposition. I watch a lot of Step 2 football in the flesh and I can be pretty certain that the stats that are produced actually have little baring on what the quality of the shots during the game actually are. Kiddie fans have said how poor they have been and their league position certainly backs that up. The other key thing for me here is the fact they haven't played a game of football since September 28th. As Stafford knocked them out of the FA Cup they didn't have a game for 2 of those Saturday's and then they missed the other because of international call-ups. I used to think that time off like that was helpful at this stage of the season, but actually I am not sure it is anymore. The bets I have had on the back of these sort of breaks have usually lost because in actual fact the team are ring rusty having not kicked a ball in anger for so long. They did beat Altrincham in their last home league game on September 14th, but then Altrincham are yet to win away from home this season and are below Kiddie in the table. They have finally been taken over so there should be more positivity around the club and they have made one new signing so far. I suspect more will follow, but it will take time to overhaul a disappointing squad. Celtic have done superbly well so far after gaining promotion last season and have won 5 games on the bounce. Now I do have to add here that they have had a pretty kind fixture list. They have beaten Bradford Park Avenue, Kettering, Leamington, Curzon and then on Saturday Alfreton. That isn't a great bunch apart from Alfreton, but even they aren't in the best of form right now. However it does show they are scoring goals for fun as they have scored 15 goals in that time and they have scored in their last 9 league games. Obviously they won't be as fresh as the home side as they played on Saturday, but they will be match fit which could be the bigger factor. At 23/10 Celtic have to be the play as yet again Kiddie are way too short in the betting.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Banbury
The home side cost us on Saturday, but I am going to oppose them again here. Banbury have had a superb season so far and have only lost 1 of their last 9 games. They were involved in a thriller on Saturday against Biggleswade which they won 3-2 in injury time and I think they can back that up with a win here.
St Ives Town v Royston Town
I am a bit concerned about how the away side will react to blowing a good chance of getting to the First Round of the FA Cup on Saturday, but this does look a good game for them to try and bounce back in and they look way over priced. St Ives have got a lot of injured players and it looks doubtful about them getting any back for tonight. Last Tuesday they drew 4-4 with bottom side Leiston in a game described as one neither team deserved to win. They then lost 1-0 to an Alvechurch side who hadn't won a league game since August and they performed poorly again. Granted Royston haven't won in 4 league games but the two defeats were against Tamworth and Hednesford so they weren't expected to win either of them. I just can't have them as 3/1 shots to win this at all and that is a huge price.
Stratford Town v Tamworth
The home side look in a right mess at the moment and they have already used over 30 players this season. They sacked their manager a couple of weeks ago and they were forced to cut the budget as well as another 8 players left the team. It has been 10 days since they played a competitive game which they lost 3-0 Lowestoft which is their only win in 7 games and they have lost the other 6. Tamworth were my main bets for the title and they are nicely placed in 3rd after 11 games. They did lose to Darlington in the FA Cup at the weekend, but that was obviously much tougher than this and they will be hoping to get back to winning ways tonight. I think they ought to be odds on to win this so Betway's 7/5 looks too big.
Farsely Celtic 2pts @ 23/10 with Bet365
Banbury 1pt @ 44/25 with Marathon
Royston 2pts @ 3/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway
Tamworth 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Betway

I have had tough spells in the past and given this one has only lasted 2 match days it is not exactly the longest, but this week has been really tough. Saturday wasn't great and the 3pt Yeovil bet losing was annoying, but what happened on Monday and Tuesday was just awful. Gloucester should have won that game with ease in the circumstances, but they massively under performed and obviously personally that defeat was hard to take. Then for Dover to go and somehow lose 4-0 to Aldershot on the Tuesday night was probably an even freakier result. I have now tipped up Dover in their only 2 games they have failed to win on the road and they have conceded 7 times in those two matches. Granted it was only a point on Hartlepool on Wednesday night, but to see them defend as badly as they did for the 2 Stockport goals was pretty hard to take as it was really bad stuff. Obviously if you were a new follower after the two really good days the week before then you might be wondering what all the fuss is about and you will be a fair few quid down. I can make no guarantees about making a profit, but hopefully come April I will still be in profit and who knows we might get a day like the final day of last season again! 
Anyway onto Saturday and I have 6 bets.
Halifax v Boreham Wood
Chorley turned up to Halifax on Tuesday night and didn't even try to win the game and Halifax just couldn't break them down. Fair play to Chorley because they keep drawing games so in some ways it was no disrespect to only get a point against them rather than all 3. I do think though they can get straight back to winning ways against a Boreham Wood side who will have done plenty of travelling this week. They have been in decent nick only losing 2 of their last 7 games, but one of those was when they had to go all the way to Barrow on Tuesday night and they lost 3-1 to the in form home side. It is pretty nasty of the fixture list to send them to Barrow on a Tuesday and then Halifax on the Saturday especially when Halifax played at home on Tuesday night. Halifax have got the best defence in the league which is key given Tshimanga and Marsh have both score 8 goals for Wood this season. Keep them quiet and the chances are you will win the game and hopefully Halifax will do just that. I would have them odds on myself so 13/10 looks a big price.
AFC Telford v York City
York are still unbeaten which is pretty impressive after 12 games and hopefully they will be making it 13 games unbeaten after this one. They are already looking like they will be hard to beat for the title and they ought to have too much for a Telford side who have been really struggling of late. They lost to Blyth in their last league game and were also dumped out of the FA Cup 3-0 to Nantwich from the league below. They have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 4 home games as well and you would expect a side like York to be able to punish them on that front as well. Again I think York should be odds on shorts so 59/50 makes plenty of appeal.
Curzon Ashton v Blyth Spartans
Blyth are obviously risky because they haven't been great so far this season, but they have shown signs of improvement and they look way over priced to beat a badly out of form Curzon side who are in worse form. Curzon have not won a game since August 12th and not only that they have only picked up 1 point in the league since then and that was when they drew with Stalybridge on Bank Holiday Monday which stopped me from getting a very profitable full house on that day! Blyth know they can beat Curzon as they beat them in a FA Cup replay last month. As mentioned above Blyth won their last league game against Telford and although they lost to Hednesford in the FA Cup last Saturday they still look in better shape than their hosts at the moment. I would probably have them around the 7/4 mark and the 29/10 they actually are is way over the odds.
Whitby v Warrington
I am going to try and get some of the money back lost on Monday by taking on Whitby again. We know they were down to the barebones for Monday and although getting time off work won't be an issue here they still have injuries to deal with. The players were out on their feet on Monday after about 60 minutes and Gloucester were well on top despite having just 10 men and I even get the feeling City might have won the tie if they had 11 men on the pitch. Taken that into account I suspect there will be some tired Whitby legs on Saturday. Also given they have a great chance of getting to the 1st Round of the FA Cup next Saturday and I would imagine they will have more than one eye on that tie against Stourbridge. Warrington are more than good enough to take advantage and have yet to loose on their travels in the league this season. Granted they haven't won in 4, but they have drawn 3 of those games and although South Shields already look away and gone they should be in the play-offs. All things considered I think they are over priced for this and are well worth backing.
Hartley Whitney v Walton Casuals
The home side have yet to win at home in the league this season and hopefully that will continue to be the case here. They have only won twice and they have come against Dorchester who are below them in the table and Met Police who are one place above them. Walton Casuals lost their first 5 games, but have followed that up with 4 straight wins so come here in fine form and I fancy them to make it 5 losses and 5 victories.
Harrow v Truro 
Truro are having a cracking season after relegation having lost just twice in 10 games and have won 7 of them as well. They look possible title contenders and I think they can get another 3 points here. Harrow started the season well enough and were unbeaten after 5 games, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 and I suspect they are going to find their place in the table being the bottom half come April. I think Truro are well worth a bet as they are the better side of the two and hopefully will go and prove that on the pitch.
Oxford City v Dartford
This is an extra bet after I put the initial 6 bets up. It was announced on Thursday evening that Steve King was the new manager at Dartford and I think that news makes them worth a bet on Saturday. We usually see an improved performance from teams who have a new manager and I am a huge fan of Steve King. His track record especially at this level is hugely impressive and as much as fans of rival clubs have always wanted to slag him off I have never really understood why given how good he is. He nearly saved Whitehawk from relegation 2 seasons ago given from memory I don't think they had even won a game when he joined, they certainly were detached at the bottom of the table. He then went to Welling and got them to finish 3rd despite the fact they cut the wage budget during the season and they went on to lost to Woking in the play-off final. I'm not surprised he wasn't out of work for long and I expect him to get an under performing Dartford rising up the table. Oxford City have won three games at home this season and two of them were against Hampton & Richmond with the other against North Leigh in the FA Cup. They have drawn against Weymouth and Billericay in their last two home league games which are fair efforts, but I think we could see a big performance from Dartford this weekend and at 15/8 I am willing to back them.
Halifax 3pts @ 13/10 with William Hill
York 2.5pts @ 59/50 with Marathon
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 29/10 with Marathon
Warrington 1pt @ 9/4 with BetVictor
Walton Casuals 1pt @ 153/100 with Marathon
Truro 1pt @ 7/5 with Marathon
Dartford 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365

@Darran Any Opinion to the Fa-Cup Replay Game of Weston against Kingstonian. My feeling is that Kingstonian Odd is too High. They´ve good a late equalizer Goal in 90th Minute after they was down to 10 Men. So for me little bit unlucky. And they are not the weakest Travlers in League...
Maybe here we´ve got here a surprise?

Saw the Game against Hungary from Slovakia and must say they didn´t impressed me at all. For them i think it will be hard to creat chances and i saw them some other Games in Future. Slovakia are not so good, wheny they are Favorite or like this Game not the Underdog.
They looking better in there type of Football when they are Underdog. Bets are not so bad, but i will be careful here. Maybe DNB are better Opinion.

Don’t have any strong view to be honest. Might be a bit high but they have under performed for me so far this season

Hertha with easy win - other 2 Bets are good, but fail to win. Darmstadt whole Game the better team but didn´t find the net and Stuttgart lost agaisnt Bottom Team but have Over 80 % Ball-Possesion including 4 Times hit the Bar....

Today i´ve got 3 Bets in Germany...
First is Hertha BSC-Duesseldorf
Hertha with bad Start in Season, but last Weekend with impressive Away Win against Cologne - now i think they can made the Turnaround and win today. They´ve got now important missings and now they play today against a Out-Of-Form Team of Duesseldorf. Fortuna won first Game in Bremen, but now they are without a Win in following 5 Games. And must fair to say - they didn´t play against the Big-Clubs of the League. Lost against bad playing Gladbach at this time, lost against Freiburg at Home. So for me they now in bad Shape. So Hertha will win this.
Stuttgart - Wehen
2. Bundesliga and it´s Top against Bottom. Wehen last Week with first win of the League, but they are still weak. Was not a good Game and they deserved that point by fighting and running. But that´s now enough today. Play today against big Favorite Candidate of Promotion Stuttgart. Stuttgart with Walter had a good Coach and think they have find the right words. Team Spirit is great at the moment and the team belives to himself. Made some close games this Season, but they win this Game. Last Week against Bielefeld, at Heidenheim. Some missings today on Stuttgart Side but squad is big enough to replace them.
Darmstadt - Karlsruhe
Darmstadt on 16th Place, but they deserved more. Unbeaten at home since Month and also this Season with some Fighting Spirit. Last Week Draw against Bochum, late Equalizer in Hamburg against them, the same in Home Game against Nuernberg. So i think today it´s time for them to grab 3 Points. Karlsruhe after great Start, now with little Down-Trend in Form i think. Specially away they are not good - made 1 Win in Wehen against Bottom of the League but lost against Osnabrueck and Kiel - who i think they are little bit weaker then Darmstadt. As i said it´s also to play in Darmstadt, so today it´s Floodlight Game - something special in Darmstadt. I know it for myself, when my Team Bremen lost there in a Mid-Week Floodlight Game, when Darmstadt played in Bundesliga.
 
Hertha BSC @ 1.80 5/10 Pinn
Stuttgart AHC-1.5 @ 1.90 4/10 Pinn
Darmstadt @ 2.52 3/10 Pinn

I wouldn't really want to be backing Wrexham at the moment and they had an extra game in mid-week albeit I did think the price was a bit higher than I would have made it.

I'm sure I will get some late goals go against me at some point during the rest of the season, but let's hope I haven't used up all my luck for the campaign in the past week. To have Horsham do what they did after what happened with the main bets on Saturday was staggering really, but it helped make it a very profitable few days. I have four single bets on Saturday, 3 in the league and 1 in the FA Cup as well as an FA Cup acca.
Dover v Notts County
I'm sure Dover will get that home win soon, but they looked very open against Halifax last weekend and it was easy to see why away teams have had so much success against them. I'm happy to continue to oppose them with a Notts County who have only lost twice in their last 10 games. Those losses were against Yeovil and Bromley as well so nothing wrong with that. I still don't think they are the finished product just yet, but they have found a way of picking up points and they shouldn't really be over 2/1 to take the 3 points here, especially given Dover's home form.
Hartlepool v Yeovil
I put this up on Monday as I didn't think the price would last on the away side and I was right as they are a fair bit shorter now. Pointless doing a long preview now really so I will be brief. Yeovil continued their superb run of victories on Saturday being the first team to beat Bromley and whilst they had a bit of fortune with Bromley having to have a defender in goal for over 80 minutes it was still a top effort. Hartlepool have been a bit frustrating really as I thought they looked good against Woking on the TV last month, but they have injuries and suspensions at the moment and they could find it tough to see off a flying Yeovil.
Merthyr Town v Wimborne Town
The away side have been in cracking form since their caretaker manager took over and they are unbeaten in 4 now, winning 3 of them. They beat a good Weston side last weekend and prior to that had got a point against Truro who are doing well this season as well. They have scored 12 goals in those 4 games as well so it is surprising they are so big to win at a Merthyr side who have only won 3 of their nine league games and have lost 3 on the bounce. 13/5 with Betfair looks more than acceptable.
Brackley v Warrington
The price of Warrington obviously tells you that this is a risky bet, but they just seem over priced to me so it is worth a shot. Brackley hammered Bradford Park Avenue 8-0 last week, but I suspect Warrington are a better side than BPA. Brackley have only lost once in their last 9 games as well so it will be tough for Warrington for sure, but I just can't make them 8/1 shots. Warrington are one of the best sides in the BetVictor Northern Premier and they have only lost once in their last 8 games. They have a good team and have had some good FA Cup runs in recent years and I would make them at least half the price they currently are. 
FA Cup acca
Missed by one in the last round so hopefully these 7 can all beat much lower opposition. They are Wealdstone, York, Havant & Waterlooville, Gateshead, Maidstone, Boston and Welling. It pays 4.7/1 with BetVictor.
Notts County 1pt @ 56/25 with Marathon
Wimborne 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfair
Warrington 1pt @ 8/1 with BetVictor
FA Cup acca 1pt @ 4.7/1 with BetVictor
Already advised
Yeovil 3pts @ 19/10 with marathon (against Hartlepool)

Saturday yet again showed the fine margins involved in football betting. Gloucester, Barrow and Halifax winning would have been OK, but for the two biggest bets to score winners so late on turned it into a fantastic day. I think it was a deserved change of luck after not having a great deal go right during September. There are a few games on Tuesday night and I like 4 bets at Step 3.
Brightlingsea Regent v Enfield Town
The home side are now without a manger after they blew a 2 goal lead against Lewes on Saturday, losing 3-2. They have now lost 3 on the bounce and they have only won 2 of their 9 league games so far. One of those came against bottom side Corinthian-Casuals although they did manage to be the only team to beat title favs Hornchurch so far this season. Hopefully one of my tips for the title Enfield can give them a 4th defeat on the trot. They are currently in 4th place and the only game they have lost in the league was a horror show against 4th placed Horsham. They have been seeing off the teams lower down in the table and should have too much for their hosts and are 36/25 with Marathon.
Corinthian-Casuals v Horsham
Casuals are really struggling in the league this season having failed to win a game and they featured in a dire game on Saturday against Pitters Bar which ended 0-0. It is amazing they managed to beat Chelmsford in the FA Cup given how badly they have done in the league, but that also means they may not have their full focus on this game given they have their next FA Cup game on Saturday against Kings Langely. For me at this stage of the season that will surely have more significance than this league game. Horsham's only league defeat this season came in a 1-0 loss against Folkestone who are top and undefeated. They have won 4 of their 5 away games and they are out of the Cup so don't have that to worry about. Granted they should have beaten Cheshunt easier on Saturday as they ended up with 9 men and the goal was an own goal, but I think Horsham should really be a shade of odds on so Marathon's 139/100 looks a cracking price.
Merstham v Worthing
Worthing have only played 7 league games so far this season, but they have only lost twice to the current top 2 in the division so the rest of their form looks decent. It does include a crazy 5-5 draw as well. 13 points from 7 games is a decent enough return. Merstham don't look anything special this season and 2 of their 3 wins so far have come against the bottom 2 sides and they have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Marathon's 51/25 looks too big about an away win to me.
Scarborough v Basford United
The slight concern here is that Scarborough have drawn all 4 of their home games this term which include bottom side Buxton and top side South Shields. Overall though they have only won once in the league and are currently in 17th place so I am happy enough with the price about Basford being the first team to pick up 3 points at Scarborough this season. Basford are in 4th and have only lost 3 of their 9 league games and they have been against top of the table South Shields, 3rd placed Matlock and 6th placed Grantham. Also key is their game on Saturday was called off and that could well prove crucial given Scarborough had a tough game against Warrington. I think Marathon's 46/25 is worth taking about an away win.
Enfield Town 2pts @ 36/25 with Marathon
Horsham 3pts @ 139/100 with Marathon
Worthing 1pt @ 51/25 with Marathon
Basford United 1pt @ 46/25 with Marathon

Nice to be in profit again after a tough couple of weeks and the weekend's profits were given a nice boost thanks to the bookies massive error in the Chertsey game on Sunday. My guess is Bet365 were first to price up and they clearly didn't realise Biggleswade Town had already played in the FA Cup on Saturday. The rest of the bookies to price up the match just blindly followed and it was great to catch them with their pants down with Chertsey doing their side of things on the pitch. There is a full National League fixture list on Tuesday night and I have 4 bets for the action.
Aldershot v Yeovil
Yeovil did the business for us on Saturday and I am backing them again here. It was a bit nerve wracking in the end with the goalscorer Luke Wilkinson having to go in goal when the keeper got injured and it meant they were down to 10 men as they had used all their subs. Luke then pulled off a wonder save in the 98th minute to keep it 1-0 to the away side. They continue to look strong and now they have been taken over they might well fancy their chances of going straight back up at the first time of asking. Aldershot beat Wrexham on Saturday with a 94th minute winner, but it wasn't much of a game and this ought to be a tougher test for the home side. The 7/4 with BetVictor on the away side looks worth taking.
Boreham Wood v Notts County
Boreham Wood hadn't won at home since January and then when I opposed them with Dover they duly won 3-1 and they followed that up with a very impressive 4-0 win against Stockport on Saturday. That makes it just one loss in 5 now and Kabongo Tshimanga has carried on his goal scoring form from last season for Oxford City with his 2 goals on Saturday making it 8 for the season. Wood could find it hard keeping him in January as surely Football League clubs are going to be interested. He might well add to his tally here and I am backing them at 7/4 (BetVictor) to make it 3 home wins on the bounce. Notts County aren't playing badly as such, but they keep losing key players to injuries and they lost another one on Saturday in the defeat at Bromley. No Wood have found their groove at home I expect Meadow Park to become a very tough place to visit again and County could come unstuck with a weakened side.
Ebbsfleet v Barnet
Ebbsfleet were shocking on Saturday in their 3-0 defeat by Barrow. They remain bottom of the table with just one win all season. They had drawn their 3 previous games and did come from 2 down against Woking, but that confidence boost didn't continue to Saturday and manager Gary Hill was not surprisingly not happy about things. Barnet were a bit disappointing in the 2nd half against Halifax on Saturday and lost 4-2 in the end, but they are more likely to bounce back here and obviously playing bottom of the table is going to be easier than playing 2nd. The 141/100 is worth taking with Marathon.
Halifax v Harrogate
Speaking of Halifax I am backing them to come out on top in this Yorkshire derby. That win over Barnet was a return to form after losing their previous two games and that was certainly a return to form. They have won 5 out of their 6 home games so far and are looking so much better than Harrogate at the moment. They have only won one of their last 6 games and that came over Chorley when they were really struggling. They look a fair way from being capable of reaching the play-offs as they did last season and Halifax should be around even money for me not the 29/20 (BetVictor) that they currently are.
Yeovil 1pt @ 7/4 with BetVictor
Boreham Wood 1pt @ 7/4 with BetVictor
Barnet 1pt @ 141/100 with Marathon
Halifax 2pts @ 29/20 with BetVictor

Going up early with my Saturday bets this week as bar the odd game at Step 3 the only league action is in the National League this weekend as Step 2 sides enter the FA Cup. I am hopeful that at least Bet365 will price up the FA Cup Thursday/Friday so if anything catches my eye then I will add the bets later in the week. In the National League 4 bets catch my eye.
Halifax v Barnet
Granted I am writing this before Barnet play Aldershot on Tuesday night, but I think Barnet are worth backing here. They missed a couple of games over the international weekend so I don't expect them to be a mid-week game to make too much of a difference. Halifax might be 6 points ahead of their opponents, but they have lost two more matches than them. Fair play to Halifax who have had an incredible start to the season and one I certainly didn't see coming, but they have lost their last two games and I just wonder if they are about to start dropping down the table. Barnet have only lost to Dover this season and are currently unbeaten in their 4 away games. They look as if they can be potential title challengers this term around and although they might lack a star striker, they have scored a goal in every game apart from the one they lost. Barnet look value to me at 101/50 to make it 3 defeats on the bounce for Halifax.
Solihull v Yeovil
I haven't been overly kind to Yeovil this season, but fair play to them they have won 4 on the bounce now and they really do look over priced to make it 5 on Saturday. They are looking especially strong up front at the moment and have scored 9 goals in those 4 wins. It doesn't really make much sense that they can be backed at 17/5 (BetVictor) to beat a side who are in an awful run of form at the moment. Solihull are still favourites for the title, but they haven't even been playing like a team who can reach the play-offs let alone the title at the moment. They have only picked up a point in their last 5 league games and as I have mentioned on here before their defence has been particular bad at times. However on Saturday it was both ends of the pitch that were the issues as they couldn't even muster a shot on target as well as conceding 3 goals. I'm sure they will turn it around at some point, but for me the prices are very wrong here and Yeovil should be around 7/4 shots not over 3/1.
Sutton v Chesterfield
Very simple here as I am going with the draw. Chesterfield did win for the first time on Saturday which will come as a big relief for their fans and manager John Sheridan who is under big pressure. I did consider putting Chesterfield up as that win might well see them kick on, but they have drawn 5 times and Sutton have drawn 6 times and have yet to win at home. At 121/50 it seems worth a speculative punt that two of the draw specialists in the league can draw again.
 Torquay v Dagenham & Redbridge
Will the problem I have of calling Dagenham right continue here? Hopefully not as I think they look a big price at 27/10 with Marathon to win this. I have been a bit scathing of Peter Taylor and it did look at one stage like he could be in trouble as Dagenham got off to a slow start, but they have really turned it around and have put in some impressive performances of late. They are now unbeaten in 7 games and I was impressed with them last week when they played Bromley on BT Sport. Bromley deserved the point, but the equaliser did come with basically the last kick of the game. Beating a good Hartlepool side 3-1 on Saturday was a decent effort and it is hard to see why they should be so big to beat a Torquay side who are a bit in and out as their record of 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses suggests. They have only won once in their last 5 games and they were the first team to lose to Chesterfield this season on Saturday. Dagenham look the stronger side to me and although their have not been many goals in their away games they can edge it for me. Again like Yeovil I would make them around 7/4 shots.
Barnet 1pt @ 101/50 with Marathon
Yeovil 2pts @ 17/5 with BetVictor
Sutton v Chesterfield draw 1pt @ 12/5 with Marathon
Dagenham & Redbridge 2pts @ 11/4 with Marathon