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ProfessorMJ

NHL Picks 2019-2020 by Professor MJ

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Hello hockey fans!

I'm a statistics university professor and I love to help fellow sports investors grow their bankroll!

I have developed the following 4 betting systems (more to come in the very near future), which are all in accodance with my contrarian approach so I really trust them a lot:

  • The Scoring Drought: +90.53 units over 1656 bets.
  • The Sloppy Defense: +27.64 units over 267 bets.
  • The Hot Scorers: +45.08 units over 332 bets.
  • The Stingy Goalies: +94.10 units over 2198 bets.

(the above numbers were obtained via my dataset on 9 seasons)

TOTAL:
Profit = +257.35 units over 4453 bets (a ROI of +5.8%)

Since the 2012-2013 season was shortened to 48 games, the data correspond to 8.6 seasons.

You can therefore expect to earn 29.92 units (257.35 / 8.6) over 518 bets (4453 / 8.6) throughout a full season.

If your average bet is $100, your expected winnings are $2,992.

In this thread, I'm going to present one pick on Tuesdays and Thursdays (sometimes Saturdays? We'll see how it goes).

We'll keep track of the record. Sounds good?

Let's get the party started!

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Sharks (at +105 or 2.05) at Blackhawks

Let's get off to a good start!

Professor MJ

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We got off to a good start with the Sharks upsetting Chicago! Let's keep it up!

RECORD:

Bets won = 1
Bets lost = 0
Profit = +$1.05 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Coyotes (at +137 or 2.37) at Avalanche

Have a good Saturday!

Professor MJ
 

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We came close to pulling off a second straight upset, but the Coyotes lost in overtime in Colorado in our last pick.

RECORD:

Bets won = 1
Bets lost = 1
Profit = +$0.05 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Detroit Red Wings (at +130 or 2.30) at Vancouver Canucks

Based on "The Stingy Goalies" betting angle, which goes like this:

Suppose a team has allowed 3 goals or less in each of its past three games (not necessarily wins). Fade that team if they are now playing at home with odds < 2.25 (i.e. +125 in American format). The latter condition ensures we are avoiding betting big&moderate favorites.

That being said, the Canucks have allowed 2, 2 and 3 goals in each of their three most recent matchups. They are indeed at home with a money line smaller than 2.25 so we are betting AGAINST them tonight.

Good luck with your plays, sports investors!

Professor MJ

Edited by ProfessorMJ

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RECORD:

Bets won = 1
Bets lost = 2
Profit = -$0.95 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

New Jersey Devils (at -112 or 1.893) vs New York Rangers

The play is based on "The Cold Teams Matchup" betting angle:

Bet a home team undergoing a losing skid of 3+ straight losses when facing a road team that has lost its past 1-2 game(s).

Since the Devils have lost their past six games, while the Blue Shirts lost 1 game in a row, we're taking New Jersey tonight!

Professor MJ

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RECORD:

Bets won = 2
Bets lost = 2
Profit = -$0.06 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Vegas Golden Knights (at -122 or 1.82) at Pittsburgh Penguins

This play is based on two betting angles, including "The Hot Teams Matchup", which goes as follows:

"Bet a road team coming off 1-2 straight win(s) when facing a home team riding a winning streak of length 3+."

Since Vegas has won 1 game in a row, while the Pens are on a 5-game winning streak, we are backing the Golden Knights.

Have a good Saturday!

Professor MJ

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The last 2 picks hit, let's extend this good streak!

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 3
  • Bets lost = 2
  • Profit = +$0.76 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

New York Rangers (at +104 or 2.04) vs Arizona Coyotes

This pick is based on "The Hot Scorers" betting angle, which goes as follows:

Suppose a team scores 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games (not necessarily wins). FADE them if they are now playing on the road.

The Coyotes have scored 5, 5 and 4 goals in their past three contests, respectively. Since they are playing in the Big Apple tonight, we are betting against them.

Good luck!

Professor MJ

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RECORD:

  • Bets won = 3
  • Bets lost = 3
  • Profit = -$0.24 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Anaheim Ducks (at +135 or 2.35) at Dallas Stars

This pick is based on two betting angles at a time, including "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup", which goes like this:

Bet a road team coming off at least 2 straight losses when facing a home team coming off at least 2 straight wins. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 (i.e. we only focus on moderate/big dogs).

This system yielded a 43-unit profit over 9 full seasons (via 428 bets).

Good luck to you!

Professor MJ

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I'm gonna do something special and provide a couple of picks today. But first:

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 3
  • Bets lost = 4
  • Profit = -$1.24 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks:

  • Chicago Blackhawks (at +175 or 2.75 with Bet365) at Nashville Predators
  • Minnesota Wild (at +130 or 2.30 with Pinnacle) at Dallas Stars

Both are based on 3 betting systems at a time!! One of them is called "The Blowout Effect", which goes as follows:

"Bet a team that just blew out its previous opponent by 3+ goals if they are road underdogs tonight."

Chicago's last game: won 5-1 against the Kings. Minnesota's last game: won 5-1 against those same Kings. Both Chicago and Minnesota are road dogs today, so they meet all criteria for betting.

This system generated gains of 60.49 units over 818 bets (ROI = 7.4%) through a 9-year span.

Good luck!

Professor MJ

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5 NHL Picks for November 1

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 3
  • Bets lost = 6
  • Profit = -$3.24 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Let's start climbing back!

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 4 STARS = Lightning (at -113 or 1.885) at Islanders
  • 2 STARS = Flyers (at +108 or 2.08) at Devils
  • 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (at +145 or 2.45) at Blues
  • 2 STARS = Ducks (at -108 or 1.926) vs Canucks
  • 1 STAR = Stars (at +122 or 2.22) at Avalanche

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

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2 NHL Picks for November 4th

The picks went 3-2 for a +1.23-unit profit the last time I posted. Let's stay on the winning track!

RECORD:

Bets won = 6
Bets lost = 8
Profit = -$2.01 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

3 STARS = Red Wings (at +175 or 2.75) vs Predators
2 STARS = Coyotes (at -103 or 1.97) at Oilers

Best of luck!

Professor MJ
 

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6 NHL Picks for November 5th, 2019

RECORD:

Bets won = 7
Bets lost = 9
Profit = -$2.04 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's system plays are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 5 STARS = Senators (at +230 or 3.30) at Islanders
  • 4 STARS = Avalanche (at +119 or 2.19) at Stars
  • 3 STARS = Flyers (at -102 or 1.98) vs Hurricanes
  • 3 STARS = Blue Jackets (at +125 or 2.25) vs Golden Knights
  • 2 STARS = Blues (at +103 or 2.03) at Canucks
  • 2 STARS = Wild (at +103 or 2.03) at Ducks

The Ottawa Sens meet the criteria of three betting systems at a time, including "The Hot Teams Matchup" betting angle, which goes as follows:

Bet a road team coming off 1-2 straight win(s) when facing a home team coming off 3+ straight victories.

This strategy led to a 66.87 unit-profit over a 9-year span (via 483 bets).

Since Ottawa has a 1-game winning streak, while the Isles are riding a nice 9-game winning streak, we are backing the Sens tonight. It's a long shot, but we'll see how it plays out!

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for November 6

3-3 record last night for a slight profit.

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 10
  • Bets lost = 12
  • Profit = -$2.00 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 2 STARS = Red Wings (at +135 or 2.35) at Rangers
  • 2 STARS = Blues (+130 with Bet365 right now so I expect about +135 with Pinnacle) at Oilers

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for November 7

We picked both underdogs yesterday and got a 1-1 record, so we did net a profit.

RECORD:

Bets won = 11
Bets lost = 13
Profit = -$1.72 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

2 STARS = Panthers (at -111 or 1.90) vs Capitals
2 STARS = Penguins (at +100 or 2.00) at Islanders
2 STARS = Blue Jackets (at +145 or 2.45) at Coyotes
1 STAR = Rangers (at +226 or 3.26) at Hurricanes

The Florida pick is based on "The Hot Scorers" betting system, which goes as follows:

Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games. If they are playing on the road tonight, bet against them.

This betting angle yielded a 45.08-unit profit via 332 bets through a 9-year span.

Have a good day, fellows!

Professor MJ

Edited by ProfessorMJ
Entered wrong date

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NHL Picks for November 8

Big payday last night!

The system plays went 3-1, including a big underdog (Rangers at Canes) and a moderate dog (Jackets at Coyotes).

We won 3.71 units, which now puts us in profit territory! Attaboy!

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 14
  • Bets lost = 14
  • Profit = +$1.99 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 5 STARS = Red Wings (at +220 or 3.20) vs Bruins
  • 4 STARS = Canucks (at +110 or 2.10) at Jets 

Once again we are going after a long shot. Detroit's pick meets the criteria of a season-high 4 betting systems at a time. It won't be easy at all, so let's cross our fingers!

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for November 11

AWESOME!! The 5-star pick, was which a long shot, did win! The Red Wings did pull off a nice upset against the Bruins last Friday.

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 15
  • Bets lost = 15
  • Profit = +$3.19 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 4 STARS = Coyotes (at +165 or 2.65) at Capitals
  • 1 STAR = Senators (at +208 or 3.08) at Hurricanes

The Ottawa pick is based on "The Blowout" betting system:

Bet a team that blew out its previous opponent by a margin of 3+ goals. The team we bet must be on the road and its money line must be greater than 2.05 (which essentially means they must be underdogs).

This betting angle generated gains of 60.49 units over 818 bets through a 9-year span.

Good luck guys!

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for November 12

Now 5 straight days with positive gains! Let's try to keep the ball rolling!

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 16
  • Bets lost = 16
  • Profit = +$3.84 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 4 STARS = Coyotes (at +145 or 2.45) at Blues
  • 3 STARS = Oilers (at +124 or 2.24) at Sharks
  • 2 STARS = Avalanche (at +103 or 2.03) at Jets
  • 1 STAR = Panthers (at +145 or 2.45) at Bruins

Snow storm today in Quebec City, I hope you guys have a nice day...

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for November 13

This is just unbelievable: we are riding an astounding winning streak.

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 19
  • Bets lost = 17
  • Profit = +$6.77 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

No picks!

BUT... how about a free survivor pool? The last man standing gets $50 USD. Details here.

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for November 14

The free survivor pool with a $50 USD prize starts tonight. Submit your pick here!

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 19
  • Bets lost = 17
  • Profit = +$6.77 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 2 STARS = Red Wings (at +125 or 2.25) at Kings

This pick is based on "The Stingy Goalies" betting angle, whose details were provided to you in an earlier post.

Thus far in 2019, this strategy has generated a 1.42-unit profit over 43 bets (minimal gains, but still in positive territory!).

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for November 15

Dammit! Our unbelievable good streak ended last night.

The Red Wings were just 2 minutes away from pulling off the upset in L.A., but the Kings tied the game late in the 3rd period before getting the W in overtime.

Let's get back on our feet quickly!

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 19
  • Bets lost = 18
  • Profit = +$5.77 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (at +117 or 2.17) vs Blues
  • 2 STARS = Senators (at +128 or 2.28) vs Flyers

Both picks are based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting system.

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for November 16

I'm posting the Saturday picks in advance since I won't have time to do it then (we are Friday late afternoon at the time of writing).

The system picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 4 STARS = Jets (at +188 or 2.88) at Lightning
  • 4 STARS = Flames (at -105 or 1.95) at Coyotes
  • 2 STARS = Hurricanes (at -116 or 1.86) at Wild

The Friday night games might add more system plays for Saturday depending on how they play out, but as of now those are 3 picks that we are definitely taking (since the teams involved are not playing Friday night).

Enjoy your weekend hockey fans!

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for Sunday November 17

The betting systems are still on fire, 4-1 over past two days with many underdogs hitting!

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 23
  • Bets lost = 19
  • Profit = +$9.96 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 2 STARS = Sabres (at +123 or 2.23) at Blackhawks
  • 2 STARS = Flames (at +136 or 2.36) at Golden Knights

Good Sunday!

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for Monday November 18

Both picks lost yesterday (two underdogs), unfortunately. Still a good cushion in profit territory, let's rebound tonight!

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 23
  • Bets lost = 21
  • Profit = +$7.96 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 2 STARS = Kings (at +145 or 2.45) at Coyotes
  • 1 STAR = Ducks (at +194 or 2.94) at Capitals

Good luck with your plays!

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for Tuesday November 19

For the second straight day, both picks lost.

We knew a losing streak was bound to happen, eventually. Let's hope it does not last very long!

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 23
  • Bets lost = 23
  • Profit = +$5.96 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

  • 5 STARS = Blues (at +106 or 2.06) vs Lightning
  • 2 STARS = Flyers (at +120 or 2.20) at Panthers
  • 2 STARS = Islanders (at +113 or 2.13) at Penguins
  • 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (at +107 or 2.07) vs Canadiens
  • 2 STARS = Canucks (at +130 or 2.30) at Stars
  • 2 STARS = Maple Leafs (at +131 or 2.31) at Golden Knights
  • 2 STARS = Oilers (at +123 or 2.23) at Sharks
  • 1 STAR = Jets (at +166 or 2.66) at Predators

The Blues pick is based on three betting systems: "The Big Upset", "The Snapped Winning Streak" and "The Cold Teams Matchup".

Here are the details of "The Big Upset" strategy:

"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.70 in decimal format (i.e. +170 in American format). If Team B's next game is against a different opponent called Team C, bet Team C is its money line is greater than 1.667 in decimal format (i.e. -150 in American format, to avoid betting big favorites which did not prove to be profitable)."

Tampa's last game was a 4-3 loss to Winnipeg, where the Jets' money line was 2.88. For this reason, we are going to bet AGAINST the Lightning tonight (since St. Louis is NOT a big favorite today).

Cheers!

Professor MJ

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NHL Picks for Wednesday November 20

5 wins and 3 losses last night. Considering all 8 picks were on underdogs, we made a nice 3.15 unit profit.

RECORD:

  • Bets won = 28
  • Bets lost = 26
  • Profit = +$9.11 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

Only one pick today (odds from Bookmaker):

  • 1 STAR = Rangers (at +158 or 2.58) vs Capitals

The pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:

"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are playing at home with a money line greater than 2.05 (i.e. +105 in American format)."

Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets.

The Rangers have allowed 4 and 9 goals in their last two meetings, respectively. Since they are indeed home underdogs, we are backing them tonight at MSG.

Good day!

Professor MJ

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