Neubs

Freiburg-Hamburg

I see here Goals...
Both struggling in Defensive last Weekend and showing bad performances. So now we have another indication for Goals, because Freiburg at home always playing really nice offensive Football. Against Gladbach they scoring 3 and was totally dominating the game and they failed also a lot of chances in this Game. Now i see Gladbach have much better defensive, then Hamburg actually have. On Freiburg Side no new missings. So fact here, that they must play again with very young and unexpierenced central Defenders Söyüncü and Gulda. First of them has a very bad day against Colgone and interessting to see who he playing today.
On other Side we have here Hamburg, with under Pressure Coach Labbadia. They must minimum showing a good Game today if he will not be sacked. Performance against Leipzig in first Half was good and they creating some chances, but 2nd Half was terrible. Defensive Line very bad and Hamburg showing bad things against fast Strikers/Wingers. So Freiburg have also this fast Strikers/Wingers. So not with the same quality like Leipzig but it can be dangorous for Hamburg again. Also Hamburg have made some good Offensive Transfers in Summer Break, but they didn´t work good actually. But today Hallilovic is expected to starting. I expected much from him and he can made today the difference between a good or bad performances in offensive. Also Kostic is very fast, where Freiburg showing some bad scenes against Cologne. So Hamburg can also playing fast about winigers.
Lassoga are today back in squad, so Plus here for Hamburg and my bet on goals. So also they have no new missings today.
So for me here a lot of facts speaking for a Over.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 4/10 bet365

FT 4:0

I´m now on Leipzig AHC 0. Leipzig wihtout Klostermann who is important. All other Players are fit, also on Hamburg Side. Hamburg doesn´t impressed me by the performances actually. And Leipzig this season can suprised. Nice fact for me here is that Hamburg have with Djourou and Spahic not the fastest Players in Central Defensive. So on other Side, with Forsberg, Poulsen and Sabitzer - Leipzig have some great speed. Can be today the little advantage. Also i like Hasenhuettel as coach, he is superb for Leipzig - like Weinzierl for Schalke is.
So for me here:
Leipzig AHC0 @ 1.95 4/10 Pinn

Bremens bad start isn´t a surprise. I´m Bremen fan since my birth, but acutally it will be a hard fight for not to relegate, if we not change fast the Trainer.
For me i think will look on these games:
Hamburg-Leipzig and Hertha - Schalke. Both interessting for a AHC0 on the away team. But will write maybe some more later...

Regional League North-East
Auerbach-Cottbus
 
Promotion Canditate Cottbus, play today against a strong Home Team on the Paper. Cottbus after struggling in the league in first games, now with some Form and Result Trend Up. Playing very good against the 1-0 Win against Meuselwitz last Game. Important Player Weidlich are back in squad after injury. Maybe he can play some minutes. Will be a big plus and motivation today for Cottbus. Because i think this will be a tough game and fighting game. Raining acutally in Saxony and if it´s not stopping, pitch will be hard to play. So i think the clever team will win. And for me this is Cottbus, reason are simple. Auerbach today missing 2 very important and experience Players. Schlosser and Wild are missing. Also 3 other Players from Starting XI are doubts, but think he will play. If not, better for my bet. Last Game against Hertha II, Auerbach are playing not good and the performance was not good. Think Cottbus will take here the advantage and will be grab all 3 Points for climb up in the table.
 
Cottbus @ 2.30 5/10 bet365

Regional League North East
BFC Dynamo Berlin - Berliner AK

Odds not right in my opinion. BFC Dynamo here favorite but think odds must be turn around. Promotion Candidate Berliner AK with not a good start, after loosing first Game against Schoenberg and a Draw against good Team of Viktoria Berlin. No they have back Muehlhauser, after suspension. He is Left Defender and very important at the moment. Other LD Belegu are injured, so in last game Uzuma, who is naturall Left Winger must play LD. So now the defensive will be more stable. Also Berliner AK have a very good offensive. That for me now the difference. For sure BFC Dynamo have won both games in League, BUT agsinst Fuerstenwalde who are new in league and with a squad who isn´t good enough for the League and last Game with away win against Neustrelitz. So that´s not bad result but think now they are overrated. They have lost before season important players, and now they facing against a strong offensive team. BFC Dynamo have a young defensive line with not so much experience like the offensive from Berliner AK have. So i write it... That can be the difference. Last Season Berliner AK have won both games against BFC Dynamo and i think both are on the same level like last season games. So for me here:

Berliner AK @ 3.10 3/10 Marathonbet

Seasons in Germany starts slowly after Summer Break and tomorrow the Regional League Nort-East starts.
I will start with a bet for the Match
Babelsberg-Nordhausen

Babelsberg last Year very strong at home with 9-7-1, but now they playing against one of the Top Candidate Team for Promotion Place 1.
But now Babelsberg lost some of last Years Players who have most of time playing in Starting XI. So you must know for me Babelsberg is not a team who have that Key Player. Maybe best striker Shala but he are staying in Babelsberg. So every Starting XI Players is important and for me a big Minus that: Uzun (29 Games last Season), Mihm (30 Games), Cubucku (31 Games), Hellwig (30 Games) and Uslucan (23 Games, was injured begining of last Season) have all left the Club. The new signings are for me personal not the best, maybe Koch for central Midfield from 2. Bundesliga Team Union Berlin are a good Transfer. So for me Babelsberg this year is weaker then last Season. And now playing against Nordhausen a Team who was last Year in 3. Postion in Table and playing against Babelsberg (2:0 at Home and 0:0 in Babelsberg). Also they want to Promoted in next 2 Seasons for 3. Bundesliga. They have signed for this League superb Players. Main Transfer here is for me Sailer, who are come from 1. Bundesliga Team Darmstadt 98. He can made the difference because he is a type of Player who are fight and thats whats Nordhausen needs, because they will be in most of the Games in this Seasons are the Favourite. So you need such Guys. Other very good Transfers are Yelen (former 2. Bundesliga Player), Chaftar (good Left Defender), Schloffer from Sturm Graz, Günzel from Bayern Munich II. And some other Players. So 13 New Signings against 13 Players who left the club. It can be difficult in first Games, because Nordhausen at the moment not in Rythm. But Friendly Wins against Erfurt and Halle who are both in 3. Bundesliga, sounds really good and thats what i read from both Games, Nordhausen must made good Games. So for me here, with low Stakes because Seasons Begining:

Nordhausen @ 2.10 3/10 Marathonbet

Bremens bad start isn´t a surprise. I´m Bremen fan since my birth, but acutally it will be a hard fight for not to relegate, if we not change fast the Trainer.
For me i think will look on these games:
Hamburg-Leipzig and Hertha - Schalke. Both interessting for a AHC0 on the away team. But will write maybe some more later...

FT 3:1
Gladbach deserved this FT Result
 

Dover v Forest Green Rovers

Quite why BT Sport thought it was a good idea trying to compete with the Glasgow and Manchester Derbies I don’t know, but this game is live on BT at 12.15pm. I’m really interested to see how Forest Green get on and I think they are worth backing. As I said last week they really have hit their stride now and even though they weren’t impressive in their first three wins, they have looked impressive in their last 3. Granted they only beat Chester 2-1 last weekend, but they were very comfortable and they should have won by more. Dover have shown glimpses of last season’s form when they got to the play-offs (losing to FGR in the semi-finals), but they have also struggled at times, with the 4-1 loss to Boreham Wood being the pick of those. They look just the sort of side who could give any team in the division a strong test at their best, but will end the season in mid-table as they lack consistency. Forest Green should be favourites for this and I was surprised to see 2/1 (Bet 365 and Marathon) available. It certainly isn’t a gimmie for the away side, but that price is just too big not to take advantage of.

Aldershot v Chester

I suspect every tipster going will be tipping up Aldershot this week because they are the obvious bet of the week. Aldershot are 4/4 at home having scored 8 and conceded just once with that goal being scored by Tranmere last week. Tranmere were probably a little unlucky not to get something from the game, but to be fair it was still an impressive performance from Aldershot. They now need to follow that up by beating a Chester side who have only managed one point in four away games so far and that came thanks to a wonder goal at Boreham Wood. Indeed apart from Chester’s two big wins at home they have looked pretty poor so far this season. Obvious bets don’t always win and I don’t always like tipping them up, but at the end of the day the 5/6 (Ladbrokes and Bet Victor) looks a massive price and I would have them in the 8/13 area so I have to get involved.

Eastleigh v Southport

Eastleigh weren’t at their best last weekend against North Ferriby, but then they didn’t really need to be and they covered the -1 handicap for us by winning 2-0. I am putting up the same bet again this weekend as they host a mangerless Southport side who have conceded 15 and scored just twice in losing all 4 away games so far. Southport are now looking for their 9th manager in 3 years and they really need to get the appointment right if they are to survive in this division. In the short term though it is hard to see them getting anything out of this and Eastleigh should cover the -1 handicap again. Paddy Power go 11/10 about them doing so.

Alfreton v Harrogate

They have been a staggering 40 goals in Alrefton’s last 6 matches which averages out at nearly 7 goals a game! On those stats I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off betting on goals again in this one, but the bet I am putting up is Harrogate to win at a huge 31/20. Alfreton have lost 4 of those 6 games and they are struggling to fill the bench. They had just two subs last Saturday and only three in their 5-3 defeat at Worcester on Tuesday night. Harrogate are still unbeaten and bar a 94 minute penalty from Curzon last Saturday, they would have won their last 6 games. They have got a very good side this season and look sure to be in the promotion hunt in what is a very tough National League North this season. I make them odds on shots to win this so at the price they look the best bet of the weekend. There will probably be plenty of goals, but I will take a 1-0 away win!

I think there is a good chance in a 6-Pick Combo... I see here Value in a Win for Germany, Denmark, Bosnia, Spain, Lettland and Greece. Odds are fair enough i think,  but i will wait for more infos. But this is for me a nice value Pick.

North Ferriby v Barrow I tipped North Ferriby to finish bottom this season and although they have managed to remain unbeaten at home, I still think they have been fairly fortunate to pick up those 7 points. Granted Barrow have yet to win away from home yet, but they were superb in the 2nd half against Braintree on Saturday and if they carry that form into this game then they shouldn't have too many problems here and are worth backing at 6/5 with Marathon.   Sutton v Dagenham & Redbridge I was really impressed with Dagenham on Saturday when they beat Wrexham 3-0 on BT Sport. Some of the passing was top notch and the ball that helped set up the opening goal was one of the best assists I have seen at this level. If anything Sutton's 3G pitch should encourage Dagenham's passing football and given the fact Dagenham have one all bar one game this season it is hard to understand why they are over 2/1 (Marathon) to win this game. Sutton will be looking to bounce back from a 4-0 defeat to Chester on Saturday, but Dagenham look promotion contenders so far and that price is silly.   Woking v Chester Speaking of Chester they have the perfect chance to build on that 4-0 win against Woking. Chester have been pretty inconsistent given their other win was Dagenham's only defeat of the campaign. Woking however have been terrible so far and I don't know how Gary Hill is going to get them out of their current situation. They have one of the lowest budgets in the division and have just one point to their name. Losing 4-1 to York on Saturday after going a goal up was a pretty shocking effort and if Chester do build on that 4-0 win then Bet 365's 2/1 is going to look massive come 4.50pm. Chester should be favourites.   Wrexham v York York haven't exactly convinced so far this season and even though they beat Woking easily as I mention above I don't think that exactly accounts to an awful lot. However I do think a couple of things are important. First of all they were 4-1 up after 25 minutes so the game was basically over from that point, which meant they didn't have a tough 90 minutes ahead of this game just 48 hours later. The 2nd point is that scoring 4 goals should give them a fair bit of confidence. Wrexham looked poor against Dagenham on Saturday and although they have yet to lose or concede a goal at home, they have scored just once. This is obviously a tougher game for York than Woking, but I suspect these two sides are at a pretty similar level right now so that makes the 13/5 worth taking.   Welling v Chelmsford Chelmsford have been a little disappointing so far given I thought they had a promotion chance, but they are still within touching distance after a comfortable 2-0 win over Oxford City on Saturday. Welling have been shocking so far this season after relegation having failed to win a game and they have lost all 3 at home. A long journey to Truro on Saturday won't have helped in regards to this game either. Quite why Marathon have got the away side at 19/10 I don't know as Chelmsford should have the class edge here.   Weston-Super-Mare v St Albans I am a little annoyed I didn't have a little bet on St Albans at the start of the season as Ian Allison really turned their season around last season and they looked like potential improvers. That has been confirmed so far as they currently sit in 3rd place in the table having lost just one of their opening six games. Weston have started fairly well themselves, but were well beaten by Margate on Saturday and I think St Albans are the better team. I am surprised Marathon have them at just over 2/1.   Gloucester v Boston Boston were very lucky to get a point on Saturday against Kidderminster and their away form reads played 3 lost 3 for 1 against 8. They have looked a shadow of the side who did so well last season. Gloucester have got of to a pretty good start with their only defeat coming to Darlington so far. They had a very comfortable 3-1 success against Stalybridge on Saturday and I thought they would be shorter favourites than 17/11 (Marathon) to give Boston their 4th away defeat of the season.   Slough v Hayes & Yeading Slough are beginning to look like they could be potential promotion challengers on the Evo-Stik Southern Premier and they are 2nd after the first 6 games. Monday sees them play at their new home ground for the first time and they will be keen to get 3 more points in front of a sell out crowd. Strangely enough Hayes have also just moved into a new ground, but their first game in their new ground has been their only win so far this season. I make Slough stronger favourites then Marathon's 13/10.   Maidenhead v Truro and Cinderford v Merthyr Town When I saw Maidenhead were 10/11 I could not believe my eyes. They have started the season very strongly having won 5 of their 6 games and currently top the National League South table. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if they were still there come April. They host a Truro side who have only won once so far and don't look anything special. Sadly other people agreed with me and the price has collapsed. I still think they are worth backing however, but I will add Merthyr Town to make a double which pays around 7/4. For the 2nd time opposing Cinderford proved heart stopping, but ultimately profitable as Basingstoke eventually beat them 3-2. Merthyr have looked pretty good so far this season and also have the benefit of having their game on Saturday called off so they don't even have 90 minutes of football in their legs. It would be surprising if they didn't win this and hopefully more comfortably than Basingtoke or Hitchin did.  

Frankfurt-Schalke 04

Here is see a Schalke in Front and they can win this.
Schalke with new Coach Weinzierl from Augsburg. A really good choice for Schalke i think and i expected that they are playing a really good season. Loosing Sane to ManCity is a big blow here but the new signings from Schalke are excellent i think. Coke (injured - will not play), Bamba, Embolo and Naldo are verry good new signings. Also last days they made a loan Deal with Tottenham for Bentaleb, who will sit tomorrow on the bench. So another good one. Also they are favourits by signing PSG Midfield Player Stambouli. So for me this is a really good Squad with really nice Back-Up´s on all Positions.
So on other Side we have Frankfurt. Looking last Week Game in Cup against Magdeburg and it was a tough one. THe Frankfurt performance didn´t impressed me at all. Also they have a Squad with lot of Nations, so i think first Game´s they can´t be a team by speaking a language. Think specially tomorrow it will be really tough against Schalke. The new Signings are not the best or they have signed Players without any experience in Bundesliga, like Mascarell, Varela, Blum... Or players who are not talking German, Hector, Jesus Vallejo, Mascarell, or Varela. In my Opinion this can be difficult, specially in Defensive Midfield, where the Press are thinking that Mascarell and Huszti will start. So Huszti is type of player who are better in offensive actions and not made much for defensive. And Mascarell without any experience in Bundesliga. Against Schalke team who came with much quality of Midfield Players Meyer, Emobolo and in Defensive Midfield they know each other with Goretzka and Geis.
Only really good Signing for me here on Frankfurt Side is Forward Hrgota. He will start tomorrow and he is a good one. Eintracht will miss tomorrow Rebic, Tawatha, Medojevic...
On Schalke Side Goretzka are doubt, but i think he will play. Also i said Coke are injured and also missing Uchida. Both are playing favourit on Right Defender but there have Schalke with Caicara a good one, so no Problems here. So interessting to see for me who good Schalke works no.
Frankfurt will struggle here, but Home Game for them. Can be a tough one with more luck on the Schalke Side.

Schalke @ 2.25 3/10 Unibet

Bet Won

Late Goal made loosing this bet in 90th Minute for the FT 0:3 Goal.... Thats betting...
@StevieDay1983 today no pre betting... Not sure who good all German 1st Bundesliga Teams will start. So only Live betting. I take a look on Rot Weiss Essen-Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock-Fortuna Duesseldorf

So i will start here with a Game for today

Luebeck-Sankt Pauli

This is a huge match. 4th League against 2nd League - North Derby and both Fans are hate each other very much.
Also Luebeck are starting really good in the season with 4 Games and there they have a 3-1-0 bilance by 7-0 goals. So very impressive so far. On the other Side we have Sankt Pauli with loosing both Games in 2. Bundesliga against Stuttgart and Braunschweig. Okey you can loose both of them, because there are strong opponents but this is not good for motivation and morale. Now you have here the Underdog with a good Form and a very strong defensive Line. On other Side Sankt Pauli´s defensive Line for me was not bad in this 2 League Games but a little bit shaky. So maybe today Coach Lienen wants to see a Game from a stability defensive.
No important missings on both Sides. This is for me a game who can be a surprised winner. But also i expected a game with hard fight and under floodlight and sold out it will be special for the home team. So i can see here a Game with low scoring.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 4/10 bet365

Braintree v Eastleigh


 
Like the Bromley and Tranmere game on Saturday this match sees one side I have tipped for relegation play a team I have tipped for the title. Eastleigh looked good in the first half against Guiseley on Saturday when going 2 up. They weren't as good in the 2nd half though and allowed Guiseley to come back into the game. I think it might have just been a case of Eastleigh thinking the job was done and easing off in the heat. In someways the Guiseley comeback might be a good thing for Eastleigh as it was a reminder that you will get punished in this division if you switch off. It was no surprise to see that pretty much everything positive that Braintree did on Saturday against North Ferriby came through Simeon Akinola. It didn't lead to a goal though and I think the 0-0 draw against the side who I think are potentially the weakest in the division, goes someway to back up what I thought about them pre-season. If Braintree lose Akinola I think they will be in deep trouble and the key for any team playing them will be to keep him quiet. Eastleigh look a big price at William Hills' 19/10 as I make them favourites for this match


 
Chester v Dagenham & Redbridge

It can be dangerous to get too carried away with results on the opening day of the season, but here we have a team who lost 3-0 hosting a team who won 3-0. Ironically their two opponents also play each other on Tuesday night, but more on that shortly. From the highlights I saw and from the report I read Dagenham were very impressive on Saturday. Now Southport are likely to be in another relegation battle this season so I wouldn't want to get too carried away with Dagenham just yet, but it did hint that they could be promotion contenders. Chester meanwhile looked disjointed and poor when losing 3-0 to Gateshead and my feeling was they would be in the bottom 8 again looked a fair one. John Still is sure to make his Dagenham side hard to beat on the road and they clearly have the goals in the team to take advantage of the chances that will come their way and the 8/5 with Marathon looks too big. 


 
Southport v Gateshead

As mentioned above these were the two sides who played Chester and Dagenham on Saturday. I did mention in my ante-post preview that I nearly tipped Gateshead up as they had looked like they had improved their squad from last season and they got off to a flying start on Saturday. Last season they lacked consistency, but hopefully they won't be like that this season as on paper they have a much stronger side than Southport. Marathon are biggest at 6/4 and that looks value as I would make them clear favourites to win.


 
York v Macclesfield

York were very disappointing on Saturday when held to a 1-1 draw with Maidstone on BT Sport. Granted in the first half it looked like they struggled on the 3G pitch a little, but even so they must consider themselves fortunate to have got a point as they were pretty poor. Macclesfield on the other hand were the complete opposite in beating Torquay 2-0. Now it seems Torquay didn't perform at all on Saturday and were very disappointing, but Macclesfield should take plenty of confidence from their performance. With York looking they might need a bit of time to gel it could be a good time to be playing them and Macclesfield look very over priced at 2.3/1 with Marathon. At that price I make them the best bet of the evening.


 
Hayes & Yeading v Hitchin

Fair to say it was a rather dramatic afternoon following the Hitchin game on Saturday. First of all we had the massive gamble which meant having been odds against when I put the preview up on Thursday night, they were no bigger than 2/5 before Friday lunchtime. When Cinderford took a 3 goal lead I thought the bookies were going to keep the money, but having seen the Cinderford side I knew that if Hitchin could get one they might be in with a chance. The comeback started in the 76th minute and apparently after that first goal you could see the Cinderford players start to look nervy. Hitchin got a penalty in injury time to win the game and duly scored it to land the money for us. They hit the woodwork five times during the game so I think it was a bit of a fluke that Cinderford took a 3 goal lead. That should give Hitchin plenty of confidence going into this game though. This is the first league game at Hayes' new ground and they will be keen to win, but they lost 2-1 to Froome on Saturday and I am not sure the bookies have priced this up right in making them such short favourites. The 21/10 with Skybet and BetVictor looks worth chancing.

I will start this Thread with a Sunday Game....

Greuther Fuerth-1860 Munich

A Game from two cities who are nearly to each other, but i would say it´s not a Derby. But little important Fact here is that a lot of 1860 Munich Fans will travle here to Fuerth. So for me from the crowd no advantage for the Home Team.
Fuerth also a Mid-Field Team for me and in my view they will have to do nothing with Promotion or Relgation Fight. They losing acutally with Stiepermann and Roecker 2 important Players. But buy some nice players. But all not have the quality to be THAT guy who made the difference. Tomorrow they will miss important central Mid Field Player Gjasula, by injury. So blow here for me specially by the view on the Offensive Power of Munich.

On the other Hand we have here 1860 Munich with new Coach Runjaic, who for me is a good Guy for this league. His Problem is that Munich have doing superb Transfers, specially in Offensive. But now he must Form a Team. So take a look on the new signings. They bough Aigner from Frankfurt, who directly is new captain of the team. Also new Record Signing Ribamar from Brazil, Olic (former Bayern Munich Striker),Matmour (former Bundesliga), Perdedaj from FSV Frankfurt, Stojkovic from Belgrade and Andrade from Benfica for Defensive are really good new signings. So now they must be a Team. After struggling last 2 Seasons for me this Year Munich can be surprised in positive nature. So whats tomorrow. I think new signings who will be playing in Starting XI are have big experience. Ribamar for example will not be playing, after he is only training few days with team. So offensive can be picked up with big experience, so maybe the fact that they are not good enough at the moment at a team are not so big. Aigner, Olic, Matmour, Aycicek i will think playing in Front.
So for me here a little call for 1860 Munich, who can really surprised this season.

1860 Munich @ 3.50 3/10 bet365

Bromley v Tranmere
Here we have a team I have backed to go down hosting the team I think will win the title so not surprisingly I think Tranmere have to be backed at Marathon’s 13/10. I won’t repeat myself about Tranmere, but just to reiterate, they have strengthened nicely ahead of this new campaign and they look to have one of, if not the, best strike force in the division. Also crucially their away form was superb last season as they only lost three on their travels. Bromley were mostly poor for the second half of last season and their team looks weaker this time around. If they continue in that form then they will be in big danger of going down. If this game was taking place later in the season I could see Tranmere being odds on so although never wise to go mad on the opening day, it looks a solid bet.
Woking v Lincoln
An interesting game this and the bookies have some very different prices, with Lincoln being the favourites in some places. They have been backed, but are still available at 7/4 with Marathon and that looks worth an interest. Gary Mills does a good job at Woking, but I get the feeling they are in for a long season this time around. Their squad doesn’t look all that strong and although Scott Rendell missed most of last season through injury, the fact he joined local rivals Aldershot suggests to me he thought Woking were going backwards. Since I wrote my ante-post preview Lincoln have strengthened even more and I can certainly see why the Racing Post tipped them up as their main bet for the season. You would imagine Danny Cowley will make them pretty hard to beat as he did with Braintree last season and they look to have a bit more firepower than Braintree had. Obviously we have no form to go on, but based on squad strength I would certainly make Lincoln favourites for this.
Altrincham v Darlington
The away side look a big price for this and I don’t think there is as much between the two sides as the betting suggests. They ended up winning the Evo-Stik Northern Premier fairly comfortably in the end and being you often see promoted teams making a decent start because they are in the habit of winning. They look capable of doing well in the National League North this season as well and although Altrincham should be capable of doing well also, they do have to bounce back from relegation and that might just take a few games. At 23/10 (Betway) it is certainly worth taking a chance the promoted side can overcome the relegated side.
Margate v Bath
In a strange quirk these two sides played each other on the final day of last season and Bath won 2-0. I think Margate can gain revenge for that defeat on Saturday. As I mentioned in my ante-post preview I think Margate have got a real chance of pushing for promotion this season and Nikki Bull has built a promising looking squad. Bath got off to a flyer last season, but faded after about the first 10 games. They look no more than a mid-table side again and hopefully Margate can confirm my belief that they will go well this season. Marathon are biggest at 7/5.
Hitchin v Cinderford
The only Step 3 league to start on Saturday is the Evo-Stik Southern Premier and it looks to me to have the best bet of the weekend. Cinderford won their league last season, but they said they couldn’t afford promotion. Manager and most of the players duly left, but Evesham complained and the FA told Cinderford they had to accept promotion. This has meant the new managers have had to build a side fairly quickly and obviously with little money. For the first game of the season they have to travel to the side who finished 3rd in the league last season. Needless to say it looks a tough ask for them and they look set for a long old season of struggle. I thought Hitchin would be odds on so they fact Marathon are a shade of odds against at 21/20 looks big.

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National League 

Usually I have a team in mind who I want to back to win the National League around April, but this year has been different and it hasn’t been until recently where I have made my mind about who I want to back. The main reason for that is I think it looks a very competitive division this year and if any one of about half a dozen sides won the league it wouldn’t surprise me. 
Tranmere came down with Cheltenham and I am hoping they can do what Cheltenham did last season and win the National League title. I suspected Gray Brabin’s side would need a season at this level to find their feet and although I am sure their fans were disappointed not to reach the play-offs, I think they had a solid enough season to finish just two points shy of the top 5. In my view that has built a solid foundation to build on this time around. They only lost 3 games away from home all season which was the lowest in the division, but the problem was at home where they lost 9 and just 7 teams lost more. That could be down to the fact players felt more pressure in front of their demanding home fans. Hopefully this season that won’t be so much of a factor and crucially for me their side looks stronger. I especially like their set of strikers as the trio of Andy Cook, James Norwood and Connor Jennings looks the strongest in the division in my view and they could do with scoring a few more goals than they did last season as only 3 teams scored fewer in the top half. Clearly Gary Brabin saw this as a weak point and has acted accordingly. I would be amazed if they didn’t improve on last season and they look a solid e/w bet at 7/1 (Coral and SkyBet). 

Forest Green Rovers are favourites with only Boylesports going as big as 4/1 and they have been backed in from Betway’s opening 6/1 quote. They should finish in the play-offs again, but they look shocking value at their current odds. I think getting a manager who knows this level was a good move and it is interesting that Mark Cooper seems to have gone down the route of getting younger players in like Ethan Pinnock from Dulwich. It will be interesting to see how Rhys Murphy gets on down at this level, but he has only scored 34 goals in 125 games so you wonder if he is going to be someone who goes and gets 20 goals in a season. Matt Tubbs has also arrived from Portsmouth via Eastleigh. He obviously had a superb scoring record at this level for Salisbury and Crawley, but he only got 2 in 16 for Eastleigh last season and that worries me. Maybe there were other reasons behind it, but I am sure Eastleigh would have gone for him if they thought he was still up to scoring 20+ goals a season. I think Cooper has taken a few gambles and he hasn’t always been that impressed with his team’s efforts in pre-season. Those gambles might well pay off, but I am more than happy to oppose them at the prices. 

Eastleigh are next in the betting after the above two and they were very costly to me last year given how strongly I backed them. I am loathed to blame the FA Cup run because I don’t think in got in the way all that much. They just weren’t good enough at the back and failed to score enough at the other end. Now initially I wasn’t going to back them this time around as I was a bit worried they still looked light weight up front. I am not someone who reads that much into pre-season form, but when you take a look at how many goals Eastleigh have scored in pre-season it does make you sit up and take notice. They scored 25 in 8 games and most of the opposition was of a decent standard. Constable got 15 goals last season and they need someone to come in and match that at least and they may well have found him in Mikael Mandron who Chris Todd was raving about after he scored twice against Northampton on Saturday. They look to have a stronger squad than last season and if they can carry on scoring the goals when the season starts then they should get a top 3 place at the very least. Paddy Power are best about them at 17/2. 

Dagenham & Redbridge have been the other side for money over the summer and I can understand why some people would want to take a chance at double figure odds. John Still knows non-league inside out and getting the manager right is crucial at this level. He has brought some interesting looking players in and if they click then they should be in for a good season. There are some of the field issues though which might end up seeing more money injected in the club, but until they are sorted I don’t fancy them at the current price. It is even harder to fancy the other relegated side, York, who look like this will be more a rebuilding season than one of attempting to gain promotion. 

Wrexham played some nice football last season and they put in one of the best performances I saw when they beat Cheltenham on BT Sport. The problem was consistency and I am not sure Gary Mills has actually managed to improve last season’s squad. They could easily miss out on the play-offs again. 

It will be interesting to see how the Cowley brothers get on at Lincoln given how well they did at Braintree last season. They need to find a fair bit of improvement to win the title though and I think they will be happy with a top 10 finish this season before looking at a proper promotion bid the season after. They might be a team to back when the season gets going though if they are going well. 

Dover have lost some key players, although to be fair they have kept some as well so they should still be capable of doing well, but I would be very surprised if they matched last season’s exploits. Barrow were one team I was considering backing at one stage. They have a manager who has won the league before and they finished the season pretty strongly last term. Getting Ross Hannah from Chester looks a decent signing, but on the other-hand they have lost Cook to Tranmere and you can’t help but think Cook must have felt that Tranmere have a better chance of gaining promotion. At this stage I will leave them alone, but they are ones to keep an eye on. 

One team that might go well at big odds are Gateshead. They have signed a lot of players in the close season and they look to be giving promotion a good go this time around. Given they changed manager during the season they didn’t do too badly to finish 10th and a better squad this time around can hopefully give them better consistency. I was tempted by the 20/1 but at the same time they look more a team who might sneak into the play-offs rather than actually win the league. 

At the other end North Ferriby are likely to find things very tough, but then they are priced up accordingly to go down. I think the other three promoted teams, Solihull, Sutton and Maidstone all have good chances of surviving though, indeed at least one might even sneak into the top half. Guiseley just survived last season and are likely to be in another relegation battle this time around. There are two teams I think are worth backing. The first is Bromley at 3/1 with BetVictor. They were very strong in the first half of last season, but then could barely pick up a point even under the new manager. I think they are going to find things very tough this time around. 

The second bet is a team I backed to go down last season, Braintree. Obviously I couldn’t have been more wrong as they finished 3rd in the end, but they have lost the vast majority of last season’s team. It is surprising that Simeon Akinola is still there given the interest he has had from Football League clubs and I would be amazed if someone doesn’t buy him at some point. Jamie Day isn’t a bad manager by any means, but he is having to restart again on one of the smallest budgets in the division and to me they look a spot of value at 6/1 to end up in the bottom 4 at the end of the season. 

National League North 

This looks a very tough league to try and sort out this season with some big teams in the division as well as big spending ones as well. Halifax have been backed into favouritism probably on the back of a good pre season. New manager Billy Heath will be trying to gain promotion from the division for the 2nd year running after winning the play-offs with North Ferriby last season. They should be in contention, but in a league where so many teams have a chance they look poor value at 9/2. The other two relegated sides are both 14/1 and Kidderminster make more appeal, but at the same time not enough to make me want to back them. The two promoted sides, Darlington and Salford, should be capable of doing well and the latter not surprisingly have cash to spend. You have to think Stockport will get back up at some point although not sure it will be this season. Nuneaton, Harrogate and Boston will no doubt be competitive again and Alfreton and AFC Telford can do better than they did last term. 

That is 11 teams I have mentioned and that shows you how much strength and depth there is in the division and I haven’t mentioned the two I am putting up. For the 3rd year running I am putting up AFC Fylde. They have gone full time this season and are just about to move to a brand new stadium. Yes winning the title this season will be harder than the last two, but given they have gone close the last twice the move to full time should see the improvement needed to see them land the title. bet365 are a top price of 13/2. At a bigger price Tamworth interest me. They had a solid season last term and I think they can build on that this time around. They now have a 3g pitch and I think that could be an advantage especially if the winter brings lots of postponements. Loius Briscoe looks a good signing and at 16/1 they are worth an e/w bet. 

National League South 

Ebbsfleet cost favourite backers for the 2nd year running as they blew a massive lead to lost out to Sutton. They then blew the play-off final as well so that means they are short price favourites for the 3rd year running. They are running at a reduced budget this term, but I suspect it will still be the biggest in the division. They might finally land the title, but they are no value and there are 3 teams who look good e/w value against them. 

First up is Whitehawk who somehow made the play-offs last season despite looking to have no chance at half way. They have some real quality in their squad and I don’t think they should be as big as 9/1 (bet365). Chelmsford have just had a takeover approved and that will mean an increased budget which will see them much more competitive than they have been in recent seasons. They have a manager in Rod Stringer who has won the league before and at BetVictor’s 12/1 they look a fair Each Way price. 

The final bet is Margate. Now that might seem odd on the face of it as not only have they had a massive budget reduction, but they only just survived last season. That doesn’t tell the whole story though. When Nikki Bull took over as manager during last season the team’s results improved massively and they had an outside shot of the play-offs. When things went wrong off the field though things also went wrong on it. Bull announced he was leaving at the end of the season and the players knowing the same just seemed to give up and opposing them became a money making system. The new owners then persuaded Bull to stay and he managed to get his squad to perform well enough to just stay up. I have been very impressed with the squad that Bull has put together and he showed he can manage with the way the team improved when he took over last season. I actually think having less money to spend will help them and Bull can clearly get players playing for him. Betway went 50/1 and I was hoping that was going to stay, but clearly others have seen what I have seen as they are now into 33s. I still rate that a big price though and they have a much better squad than that price suggests. 

Ryman Premier 

Only bet365 and SkyBet have priced Step 3 up this year. I really like Dulwich Hamlet again for this division. They are my local team so I see them a fair bit and they should be a National League South side by now. They massively under performed in the play-off final in May, but manager Gavin Rose has recruited well and getting Danny Carr back in can only be a good thing for both player and club. When I started watching them they were getting around 300 people turn up, but now they regularly get crowds of over 1000 and on occasions get over 2000. That is a big support at this level and is a big advantage. They look a solid e/w play at 7/1 with bet365. 

I am amazed Lee Bradbury is still in a job at Havant as they were awful on a big budget last season and deserved to go down. I do think they are worth backing at 4/1 with SkyBet though because they have recruited very well and look to have a very good squad for this level and if they gel for the manager then that price is a fair one. 

I am also having a small e/w play on Merstham at 28/1 (SkyBet). They seem to spending a bit of cash and have recruited well over the summer. They could certainly outperform those big odds. 

Evo-Stik Premier 

I put Spennymoor up on Twitter last week as when bet365 went up with the prices they looked over priced at 12s and I didn’t think the price would last. They had been 16s on the first show and are now only half those odds, but they still look a good bet. They may only have come up last season, but they have shown plenty of intent on going straight up again and have signed some very good players. They should go close. I also think Blyth Spartans are worth having on side. They went close last year before losing out to Darlington and I would be amazed if they didn’t go close yet again with the side they have. bet365 have them at 13/2. 

Southern Premier 

Not a league I have a strong view about. Basingstoke are favourites and should go well although they don’t look great value. Kettering look a team set to build on a solid season last time around and they look worth backing at 8/1. It is also hard not to see Leamington finishing there or thereabouts again and a 12/1 quote about them looks a tad big. 

Bjorn Fratangelo to beat Sam Querrey @ 3.35 Unibet (1 pt)
As much as I'm happy enough to back Fratangelo as he beat some good clay courters in the Bordeaux Challenger recently and he won this tournament as a junior, this is more about going against Querrey and for three main reasons. Firstly, he's never been that comfortable on clay and he reminds me of Roddick in that respect. Secondly, he's lost his last three matches on the surface, albeit against players he was expected to lose to and finally because from memory his record at this tournament is pretty poor. Combining those three things makes me think Querrey wont be oozing confidence ahead of this one, and so it could pay to side with the younger American here.

Magdeburg FT 0:1
Rostock FT 3:1
So little Plus here.

Freiburg FT 2:0
Leipzig FT 2:0
Duesseldorf FT 1:0