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CzechPunter

French Open 2016

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A couple of outright bets to get me started at Roland Garros.

Rafael Nadal to win The French Open @ 6.5 Coral (1 pt)

If memory serves, Nadal was about this price last year when he wasn't playing as well as he is now so that immediately arouses my interest. Coming into this tournament the Spaniard has won in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, and has only lost to Djokovic and Murray since the tour returned to European clay. Those two are obviously his biggest rivals and are ahead of him in the betting, but Djokovic was strangely subdued in Rome and I continue to have reservations about Murray's mentality when it comes to this slam, which is arguably the most difficult to win as it is so demanding. Nadal's level certainly dropped last season, but he appears to be in the ascendency once again and you can always count on him when it comes to effort and attitude. Can Nadal complete his own version of 'La Decima'? I wouldn't put it past him, particularly if Djokovic buckles under the pressure of trying to win here for the first time.

Serena Williams to win The French Open @ 5.0 Unibet (1 pt)

Not an original choice it's fair to say, but as Unibet have boosted this price I think it's worth taking. For the most part, Williams continues to dominate the rest of the WTA and she warmed up for this tournament with a fairly straightforward win at the Rome Masters. That should mean she is in good shape and ready to hit the ground running here, and in all honesty I don't see anyone that is playing well enough right now to beat the American. It's possible that she could slump in a match as we've seen before, and it's possible that an Azarenka or a Halep could step up and deliver a knock-out performance but based on recent tournaments I wouldn't want to bet on it. Like Nadal, Williams is going for her own slice of history and I think this could be the tournament where she finally draws level with Graf on 22 Grand Slam Singles titles.

I'm also going to have a 1pt punt on Nadal/S Williams in the Winning Double market on Betfair at odds of 25.

Edited by Torque

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Great the new thread... Well my early thoughts are Vitalia Diatchenko/Lucie Safarova under 18.00 games or under 17.5 at Pinnaclesports respectively bet365 and I've got my eyes on Albert Montanes to beat Ivo Karlovic on either bookie and I pick between bet365 and Pinnaclesports now since that's where I have my money. Another thought of mine is Daria Kasatkina to beat Anna-Lena Friedsam in straight sets and I'm also thinking about taking the risk of Elena Vesnina to beat Madison Brengle in straight sets. Brengle is not at her best on clay but Vesnina can really play on clay although I think it's not her favourite surface. I saw Anna-Lena Friedsam against Annika Beck and she really can blame only herself for losing that match. She was quite awful. I struggle to see how Friedsam can be able to win a set against Daria Kasatkina. Daria beat her in Indian Wells this season in straight sets and can do so again. 

I've also taken Dustin Brown to beat Dudi Sela and last but not least Kevin Anderson to beat Stephane Robert in straight sets. Kevin Anderson have beaten Robert before in straight sets in RG first round and it was 2 years ago and can very well happen again. Kevin has played decent tennis lately and Stephane does'nt get any younger although he did a quite ok job in Rome, qualifying and taking out Aljaz Bedene and pushing Djokovic.

The following bets are all placed already except Vesnina -1.5 sets.

Vitalia Diatchenko/Lucie Safarova under 18.00 games at 1.90 with Pinnaclesports or under 17.5 at 2.00 with bet365

Dustin Brown to beat Dudi Sela at 1.55 with Pinnaclesports

Quite simple - Qualifier against not so good clay player. I think Sela can win a set since he's taken at least a set in his last matches on clay so no bet on the set handicap but Brown should take this although he is also not a clay courter.

Elena Vesnina to beat (-1.5 sets) Madison Brengle at 2.21 with Pinnaclesports

Daria Kasatkina to beat (-1.5 sets) Anna-Lena Friedsam at 2.09 with Pinnaclesports

Albert Montañes to beat Ivo Karlovic at 2.00 with bet365

Kevin Anderson to beat (-2.5 sets) Stephane Robert at 3.54 with Pinnaclesports

Edited by four-leaf

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Back Amandine Hesse to beat Taylor Townsend for a 7/10 stake at 3.25 with Paddy Power

Back Kurumi Nara to beat Denisa Allertova for a 7/10 stake at 2.28 with Unibet

Back Kristyna Pliskova to beat Teliana Pereira for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with Paddy Power

Wanted to take some outrights, but nothing caught my eye unfortunately, so that's that. In the match betting, however, I have three underdogs that I like. Townsend is still unproven on European clay and Hesse isn't poor by any means, so the 3.25 that's on offer for her looks to big to me. Allertova hasn't played since Miami and she was also ill recently, so I have no idea how she's the favourite against Nara, while Pereira is in such a mess at the moment that I like the 2.50 for Pliskova.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/8oJVu7

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Back Andy Murray to win the 2016 French Open for a 4/10 stake at 5.00 with Paddy Power

Back Laslo Djere to beat Jordan Thompson for a 7/10 stake at 1.67 with Unibet

Call me crazy, but I'd much rather be on Murray at 5.00 than on Djokovic at 1.90 - not only does the Serb have a fairly hard draw, but he wasn't all that great in Rome either (apart from a few very bright moments against Nadal). In the match betting, it's just Djere for me for Sunday. He's a better clay court player than Thompson and he has three qualifying wins under the belt as well, so I wouldn't have him above 1.44 in all honesty.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/zMjeGO

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42 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

So Czech what do you think about my 6 bets? Will I partly make a fool out of myself or will I nail them all?

The thread has been here since the start of the week :ok. Now for the bets - I had a look at Montanes over Karlovic myself, but I decided against it after some thinking, Montanes has gone cold again and Karlovic has produced some very good results in the French Open already surprisingly. As for Brown, I'd never back him as the favourite and certainly not on clay, Sela is much more consistent than him, which counts for a lot over 5 sets. I agree with you about Kasatkina and Vesnina, at least one of those will come in imo. Safarova also I reckon, unless she gets nervous from all the pressure given that she's the defending finalist. Diatchenko is really poor right now, however, so it shouldn't matter so much, might actually have a small bet myself now that you've turned my attention to it. The bet on Anderson would be a big no-no to me, however, can see Robert winning it actually given their respective forms. He always plays his heart out at home and Anderson isn't back yet imo.

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My French Open bets for the tournament and on Day one

 

Johanna Konta to win Second Quarter 20/1 paddy power

She has a great season this year and i think she can go far again as her quarter is wide open

 

Nicole Gibbs vs Heather Watson

Over 20.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Watson to win 2-1 11/4 paddy power

This match will be tight as there is not much between these two as recent form has told us that there not playing their best so i fancy this match to go all the way

Edited by owenclass

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Albert Montanes to beat Ivo Karlovic @ 2.02 Marathonbet (1 pt)

Two veterans slug it out for a place in round two at Roland Garros, and whilst Montanes can certainly be described as a clay court specialist the same can't be said for Karlovic. His game relies heavily on serve and his serve will be blunted here, and on top of that he really has no form to speak of so far this season. Montanes isn't in great form by any stretch, but he's been playing consistently these past few months in contrast to Karlovic and over five sets I think I would just about have him as the favourite so at a shade over evens I'll back the Spaniard in this one.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Kyle Edmund @ 2.50 bet365 (1 pt)

Basilashvili is on something of a roll on clay right now, having won his last eight matches on the surface. That run has seen him pick up a Challenger title and negotiate qualifying here, and he's beaten some good clay court players along the way. Edmund was also going along nicely until he was forced to retire from his last match with an ankle injury, and as much as he's probably had enough time to recover there are question marks in my mind. If he was hoping for a match that would allow him to ease his way into the tournament then I think he's struck out, as Basilashvili has momentum behind him and must be full of confidence right now.

Cagla Buyukakcay to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich @ 1.57 1xBet (1 pt)

I think this is an acceptable price for a player who's bang in form right now. Buyukakcay has only lost once in her last ten matches, winning a tournament on clay in her home country of Turkey and making it through the Roland Garros qualifying rounds. She'll have a good chance of getting another win under her belt against a player in Sasnovich who can't seem to get anything going right now. The Belarusian hasn't put two wins together since the switch to clay and confidence must be low, and whilst she might be able to take a set I think Buyukakcay will have enough to make the next round.

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Hello my friends... Big day today as the second grand salm of the year gets underway with a lot of history on the line and in the making.... 

Anyway I was checking out some first round betting action on bet365 and these two matches caught my eye... 

Donald Young @ 2.10 v Teymuraz Gabashvil

This makes not much sense as the odds should have been 1.9 v 1.9 or something like that or maybe Young should have been a slight favourite. The reason being the poor form of Gabashvili (1-9 last 10) and also the fact that Young has already beaten Gabashvili on clay, albeit at a challanger event, in 2013. This may not be a strong bet but seems value. 

 

Dudi Sela @ 2.62 v Dustin Brown

Here neither is a decent clay courter but pricing Brown as such a huge favourite in a grand slam against a decent opponent in Sela makes not much sense. Brown is so inconsistent he's lost challenger matches to absolute nobodies. There is a reason why he is still a qualifier at any tournament above 500. 

Well before placing either of these bets I would like to know the opinion of my fellow bettors especially CzechPunter... What do you think everyone? 

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9 hours ago, Torque said:

A couple of outright bets to get me started at Roland Garros.

Rafael Nadal to win The French Open @ 6.5 Coral (1 pt)

If memory serves, Nadal was about this price last year when he wasn't playing as well as he is now so that immediately arouses my interest. Coming into this tournament the Spaniard has won in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, and has only lost to Djokovic and Murray since the tour returned to European clay. Those two are obviously his biggest rivals and are ahead of him in the betting, but Djokovic was strangely subdued in Rome and I continue to have reservations about Murray's mentality when it comes to this slam, which is arguably the most difficult to win as it is so demanding. Nadal's level certainly dropped last season, but he appears to be in the ascendency once again and you can always count on him when it comes to effort and attitude. Can Nadal complete his own version of 'La Decima'? I wouldn't put it past him, particularly if Djokovic buckles under the pressure of trying to win here for the first time.

Serena Williams to win The French Open @ 5.0 Unibet (1 pt)

Not an original choice it's fair to say, but as Unibet have boosted this price I think it's worth taking. For the most part, Williams continues to dominate the rest of the WTA and she warmed up for this tournament with a fairly straightforward win at the Rome Masters. That should mean she is in good shape and ready to hit the ground running here, and in all honesty I don't see anyone that is playing well enough right now to beat the American. It's possible that she could slump in a match as we've seen before, and it's possible that an Azarenka or a Halep could step up and deliver a knock-out performance but based on recent tournaments I wouldn't want to bet on it. Like Nadal, Williams is going for her own slice of history and I think this could be the tournament where she finally draws level with Graf on 22 Grand Slam Singles titles.

I'm also going to have a 1pt punt on Nadal/S Williams in the Winning Double market on Betfair at odds of 25.

I think you are spot on with Serena there for such a magnificent price. And I don't think we need to worry about Azarenka or Halep beating Serena at the French Open. She usually is good against strong opponents. It's usually the huge underdogs playing out of their skin against whom Serena often seems a little uninterested but that seems improbable at this slam. 

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2 hours ago, TheBeast said:

Hello my friends... Big day today as the second grand salm of the year gets underway with a lot of history on the line and in the making.... 

Anyway I was checking out some first round betting action on bet365 and these two matches caught my eye... 

Donald Young @ 2.10 v Teymuraz Gabashvil

This makes not much sense as the odds should have been 1.9 v 1.9 or something like that or maybe Young should have been a slight favourite. The reason being the poor form of Gabashvili (1-9 last 10) and also the fact that Young has already beaten Gabashvili on clay, albeit at a challanger event, in 2013. This may not be a strong bet but seems value. 

 

Dudi Sela @ 2.62 v Dustin Brown

Here neither is a decent clay courter but pricing Brown as such a huge favourite in a grand slam against a decent opponent in Sela makes not much sense. Brown is so inconsistent he's lost challenger matches to absolute nobodies. There is a reason why he is still a qualifier at any tournament above 500. 

Well before placing either of these bets I would like to know the opinion of my fellow bettors especially CzechPunter... What do you think everyone? 

I've taken Brown already so it's to late for me to change my mind. It will probably be a hard game for Brown but I think he'll take it in the end since he's warmed up and prepared for the surface more then Sela is. It's the surface that makes me pick Brown but I think you may have two good bets but I also hope you are wrong about Sela.

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Vitalia Diatchenko has only played 3 matches this season and it was in Tunisia on clay in may. She won against two players ranked below 300 and lost to Galina Voskoboeva in straight sets 6-4 6-4 so I think Lucie can win her match easy enough for the under 18.5 games to come in.

Vitalia/Lucie under 18.5 games at 1.72 with Paddypower

Edited by four-leaf

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BASILASVILI VS EDMUND

It is nice to see all our regular tipsters back on board at the start of what should be an interesting marathon. I on my part will try and start strong and try and maintain a strong winning tempo. Without any long rap Basilashvili is playing well as has been rightfully mentioned. The two players seem to be on a similar level, but I really think Edmund stands out in terms of being the better player by pedegree. He is also the fresher and more resolute. Basilasvili may try to hang on somehow, but I see Edmund finally pulling away. I really think if Edmund gels well here early, he could really build a command some decent respect for himself. Britain all the way here!!!

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4 hours ago, TheBeast said:

Well before placing either of these bets I would like to know the opinion of my fellow bettors especially CzechPunter... What do you think everyone? 

Already said a bit about Brown-Sela, Sela looks like the better pick to me there, although the odds aren't incredibly exciting. As for Young-Gabashvili, that looks like a complete coin-flip to me, so perhaps you're right with just picking the guy at odds against. Gaba is arguably the better clay courter, but he hasn't performed well since beating Almagro in..er..Barcelona it was I think.

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38 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Already said a bit about Brown-Sela, Sela looks like the better pick to me there, although the odds aren't incredibly exciting. As for Young-Gabashvili, that looks like a complete coin-flip to me, so perhaps you're right with just picking the guy at odds against. Gaba is arguably the better clay courter, but he hasn't performed well since beating Almagro in..er..Barcelona it was I think.

 

2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

I've taken Brown already so it's to late for me to change my mind. It will probably be a hard game for Brown but I think he'll take it in the end since he's warmed up and prepared for the surface more then Sela is. It's the surface that makes me pick Brown but I think you may have two good bets but I also hope you are wrong about Sela.

Thanks guys for the input..... Time to place first RG bets.... Gud luck everyone.... May the betting gods favour us all.... 

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3 PICK FOR WTA FRENCH OPEN:

Begu to defeat Mattek @1.28pinnaclesports

Muguruza Schmeidlova Schmeidlova 2-0sets @ 1.29pinnaclesports

Stephens to defeat Gasparyan @1.25 ladbrokes/pinnaclesports

Expect it to be an easy wins for all 3 favorites here.

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LASO DJERE VS JORDON THOMPSON

Djere has played three very good qualifying matches which really puts him in prime position for progress to the next stage. I remember expecting Pavlasek to beat him in that last round match, however he seemed to extricate himself from what was clearly a tight corner. Pavlasekon the other hand, finished strongly and although he did not make it in the end perhaps knowing that he would automatically qualify, is what has prompted me to bring Djere under scrutiny. On the surface of things, one can readily be influenced by the seeming weight of evidence on offer in believing that Djere looks the man to do the business, and convincingly so, until you let the dust settle and apply what I would term as intense microscopic analysis. H2h reads 1-0 with Djere winning that match on clay in 2014. I do not really see that as majorly significant here considering that a lot has happened to Jordan in the last 2years. Jordan is much higher ranked and would seem the certain pick even if aided by blindfolds. If I had not seen Djere play the qualifiers and suddenly found him in the draw against Thompson, where Thompson was favorite, I really do not think I would even be considering anything further. Jordan has also played enough games on clay this year to hold no fears for this encounter. In fact, considering Djere already had some tough matches in the qualifiers, it tends to bode well for the chances of Thompson. Even when all is said and done, the player with the best pedigree of the two has to be Jordan. I really feel quite strongly about this pick especially with Djere shortening further from 8/13 to 8/15 as the final nail to the coffin. I cannot elaborate on the last comment from a lack of time, but it is a very high indication of a Thompson win in my books. My pick is Thompson to win well. Good luck all!!!!!

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Back T.Bellucci/R.Gasquet - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365

Back Jordi Samper-Montana to beat Mathias Bourgue for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power

These are my finds for Monday. Bellucci has more than enough quality to trouble Gasquet, while Samper-Montana is a better player in Bourgue in my book - and the home conditions alone shouldn't be enough to turn things around.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/cOtHBi

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Bjorn Fratangelo to beat Sam Querrey @ 3.35 Unibet (1 pt)

As much as I'm happy enough to back Fratangelo as he beat some good clay courters in the Bordeaux Challenger recently and he won this tournament as a junior, this is more about going against Querrey and for three main reasons. Firstly, he's never been that comfortable on clay and he reminds me of Roddick in that respect. Secondly, he's lost his last three matches on the surface, albeit against players he was expected to lose to and finally because from memory his record at this tournament is pretty poor. Combining those three things makes me think Querrey wont be oozing confidence ahead of this one, and so it could pay to side with the younger American here.

Edited by Torque

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Hi All,

I've been following this forum since several years, especially Czech for all his good tips/advice. Thanks by the way,
I joined one year ago just before RG but didn't post anything at that time.

I finally take the time to put some of my picks for RG:

Hantuchova to beat Lucic-Baroni @3.4 with Pinnacle (3pts)
Cepede Royg to beat Lisicki @2.64 with Pinnacle (3pts)
 

I took 2 underdogs for the R1 of RG.
Hantuchova had a great qualifying tournament by winning 3 games by 2 sets to nil. She's a very experience player (reached 4 times the 4thround of RG) who should be able to beat Lucic-Baroni. 
LB did a great tournament in Strasbourg before losing 6-1 / 6-4 to Garcia.  Before reaching the final, she beat T. Babos but Parmentier and Mladenovic are definitely not very serious opponents these days.
I would expect this odd to be around 2.5.

Regarding the other bet, I'm betting against Lisicki more than betting for Cepede. However, Cepede, like Hantuchova, has already 3 wins in the qualifying tournament. Her motivation and confidence should be here for this game. This is The most important game of her young career.
Lisicki, on the other hand, hasn't done much since several months. She hasn't won 2 games in a row since February. 2016 is a disaster for her. I don't expect much from her here.

For the outrights, I put 1pt on Safarova @41 + 1pt @10 on Muguruza on Pinnacle as well.

Good luck all,

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Seems that Roland Garros is Nemesis for Djokovic. Last year the name was WAW, this year Murray indeed looks as the perfect candidate to play the role of the Nemesis against Djoko.....Plus WAW, for me at least.....I never exclude WAW from big events.....lets see....And Kyrgios probably? The young Australian look enormous from time to time.......

I advice any Djoko backer on outright market to cover the investment on the two main Nemesis candidates Murray and WAW. 

thnx

Edited by delfino

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1 hour ago, delfino said:

Seems that Roland Garros is Nemesis for Djokovic. Last year the name was WAW, this year Murray indeed looks as the perfect candidate to play the role of the Nemesis against Djoko.....Plus WAW, for me at least.....I never exclude WAW from big events.....lets see....And Kyrgios probably? The young Australian look enormous from time to time.......

I advice any Djoko backer on outright market to cover the investment on the two main Nemesis candidates Murray and WAW. 

thnx

There's surely not much money to be made by covering Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka?

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