amity

The draws are out!
Men's https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/2022_MS_draw.pdf
Women's https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/2022_LS_draw.pdf

.. so the draw is out and here it is :
Smith Vs Kleermaker
Wright Vs DVD
Wade Vs De Zwaan
Sherrock Vs Kuivenhoven
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Van Den Bergh Vs Meulenkamp
Clayton Vs Wattimena
MVG Vs Noppert
Price Vs Van Der Voort
so Smith looks in a real strong position. Beating Kleermaker, Wright and Wade to make a final is let's face it, well within his capabilities. I don't like 4/1 shots though and I don't think Smith at 4/1 is value even in this situation. Wright can beat anybody on his day ofcourse.
I would say Kuivenhoven plays Wade for a place in the semi-finals against Smith. DVD has been putting in some big performances recently but didn't really do himself justice at the World Cup and that puts me off a tad. Perhaps he was trying to live up to MVG standard.
Bottom half looks like Van Den Bergh/Clayton taking on Price/?
MVG comes back from surgery. He can't have had much practice and I think Noppert is great value this weekend. He was 25/1 last week but is now 20/1 and if he beats MVG then that's going to soon go down to perhaps 8 or 10/1. I'm taking Noppert in the bottom half and DVD in the top half. Small bet on Kuivenhoven outsider bet.
1.5pts e/w Noppert to win Dutch Masters 20/1 betfred
1pt e/w DVD to win Dutch Masters 16/1 paddypower
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0.5pts e/w Kuivenhoven to win Dutch Masters 100/1 paddypower

Any opinion on Cressy to beat Draper at 1,75?  He won his last 3 matches as an underdog in straight sets, Draper also won his last 3 in straight sets but beating easier opponents.
 
Haddad Maia is on a 13 game winning streak on grass so it's tempting but it also means she has played a lot of games and might be tired; however yesterday Tsurenko withdrew so yesterday she didn't play which could be a good luck sign for her today? 

These few weeks between the French and Wimbledon are always trappy. It's really hard to get a handle on a good bet - motivation is questionable, the transition from clay to grass is probably the most pronounced surface transition there is and lots of players have hardly ever played on grass so you've got much less of an idea of what to expect and sometimes no idea at all. It all adds up to results like Van Rijthoven winning the other week and Haddad Maia turning into Serena out of nowhere which are scenarios I don't think you'd see on other surfaces.

Danielle Lao to beat Nastasja Mariana Schunk at 2.10 with BetVictor
Not quite sure why Lao is even the underdog here, she's played more on grass recently and with some good results, while Schunk really has only the two qualifying matches under her belt if you don't count the awful performance against Sanders. And, she's beaten clay court players in those two wins. She's talented, true, but Lao has experience on her side and is probably also better on grass overall. Everything above evens is value here imo.

yeah, very disappointing from Lys, she was overpowered her groundstrokes and has not found the lines. Great defense from Papamichael, she covered the court really well and was the better player for the last 1,75 sets.
good luck for your pick. if she plays like yesterday she will easily cover that handicap

I presume Badosa and perhaps Sakkari too decided to give themselves a few days off before Wimbledon to rest up and recharge. Although that said, with Badosa you're never quite sure, as she has had some shocking losses at times this year for a player who's considered to be top 5 in the world. 

For the ATP I think it is Tsitsipas who will like to take a rest and freshen up before the GS.  So Ivashka got a chance to beat him at a great value.

I presume Badosa and perhaps Sakkari too decided to give themselves a few days off before Wimbledon to rest up and recharge. Although that said, with Badosa you're never quite sure, as she has had some shocking losses at times this year for a player who's considered to be top 5 in the world. 

Despina Papamichail (+4.5) to beat Natalija Stevanovic at 1.83 with Pinnacle
I'm not quite sure why Papamichail isn't getting any credit for her big win over Lys, she's constantly underrated by the bookies, but she's had some decent results recently. Stevanovic had a good win in the first round, but +4.5 looks off to me.

2 picks for Wimbledon qualifying matches tomorrow:

KUBLER-4 GAMES HANDICAP OVER TIRANTE @ 1.75 pinnacle
Kubler has 33-10 record this year, and winning 14 out of his last 16 matches, and he is playing a clay court specialist.

GRENIER-BARRANCO 2:0 sets @ 1.5 (several bookies)
Grenier has good serve and a good game for grass, in general, playing vs another clay court specialist (Barranco).


 

Ah shoot I saw this too late, excellent tip though! ?

Katerina Siniakova (+1.5 sets) to beat Simona Halep at 2.41 with Pinnacle
Something just isn't clicking with Halep, she's good in patches and bad in patches, and she had a very disappointing Sunday when she lost against Haddad Maia. If she's still in a bit of a slump, Siniakova can certainly steal a set, as she did against Andreescu last time out. Given the odds, I much prefer the set handicap over the games handicap, as Siniakova can produce a meltdown in the decider.

A few words about Garbine for anyone of a mind to back her anytime soon - tread carefully. Conditions are a little tricky in Eastbourne right now due to wind, but even so the unforced error count from her is too high and shows why she's been losing so often recently. If you can't keep the ball in the court then literally anyone can beat you, and a quick look at Garbine's record this season shows that's exactly what's been happening.

Ah shoot I saw this too late, excellent tip though! ?

Constant Lestienne to beat Marius Copil at 2.15 with Unibet
I think Constant seems to have himself a good opportunity here. Marius is well past his prime.

Got a while for this until it gets underway. This Friday is the qualifying round and then Saturday it will be the remaining rounds and the final. We know the 8 qualifiers and it's a strong 8 with Noppert, DVD, Van Der Voort, Wattimena, Kleermaker, De Zwaan, Kuivenhoven and Meulenkamp all competing. That's a strong line-up when you think in general, in these events, there alot of players you'd never even have heard of "making up the numbers"
Unfortuntely, we don't know where, in the draw, these players are going to be placed. Which is a great shame. All we know so far is the the top half has Smith in it, with Wright and the bottom half houses MVG and Van Den Bergh. The other 4 players are Sherrock, Price, Wade and Clayton.
Based on how poor Wright is looking and the fact MVG has just had surgery, you'd have to say this event could be quite open. Price showed glimpses of brilliance at the World Cup but he needed alot of big checkouts because at times his scoring let him down. Clayton isn't looking the same player either right now. Smith is a tier above everybody else right now and has to be rated as a favourite.
I think Noppert, DVD and potentially Kuivenhoven (to a less extent) could be dangerous of the qualifiers but until we see the draw, we'll leave it there.
back on Friday.
 

Australia win the world cup for a 10/1 winner ? 

Filip Krajinovic to beat (+3.5 games) Matteo Berrettini at 2.38 with
I think this could be a good proposition. Enough has been said about it and it's time for Matteo to have it tough.
Ons Jabeur to beat Belinda Bencic at 1.60 with
Trust me @money44Ons is on a mission this week.
Double acca at totalt odds: 3.81 with Noaccountbet

This question asking the entire forum. How are you guys feeling about Krajinovic's chances at Queens Club today vs Berretini in the final. I'm seeing it as a razor close match again similar to yesterday's line. 
Pro's for Berretini: Much Better history on grass, higher ranked, better athlete, bigger serve, appears very motivated. Has a little more crowd support
Negative's for Berretini: He wasn't serving at the best level I've seen yesterday. This feels like a hampered Berretini playing at 92%.. more sluggish movement than normal
Pro's for Krajinovic: Seems more consistent, better shotmaking from the baseline(grass). Return of serve edge. Has a quiet confidence where moment doesn't seem too big. slicing the ball well off both wings. 
Negative's for Krajinovic: I haven't found any. @CzechPunter@Torque@four-leaf@amity
@Smiles Tennis

cheers amity. Wasn't much value yesterday in anything. Whole day of darts today and it's looking like the quarter finals that are expected so far.
Austria were unlucky. Price had two HUGE checkouts.

I don't know why Krajinovic is 4/1 today at queens club. He's playing well, confidently, and really enjoying himself on the grass for the first time in his career. He hasn't made any waves in a long time, and it looks like he's getting a bit of support in the crowd here also. I see Cilic as a frontrunner, but if he gets down in the match.. Krajinovic can be steady from the back of the court.  
I have Krajinovic lined @+250 maximum, and think this is just an inflated price. 
*Also, don't be surprised if you see a really motivated player who is seeking his first final on outdoor court other than clay, and in search of his first Atp title, which seems possible in my mind.

I think you're referring to @amity there @money44. I made some comments about Kudla but nothing specifically about Berrettini, but no matter. I can see what you mean about Berrettini as a 'freight train' on grass because when his serve plus one is clicking he's almost impossible to break and that's obviously a very strong foundation from which to win matches on grass. 

missed this comment... Yesterday I went small.. Didn't want to be very bold, and Czech Punter was right.. the bookies were fairly spot on yesterday.. I trusted his word, and this is reason I don't bet big.. Saves me some money.. I hit big future bet on Golden state Warriors.. So, right now my bankroll is completely flush.. 
as for tomorrow. I am leaning Belinda Bencic because I think she is in form, and a very fierce grasscourt player.. What scares me is that Sakkari seems to be doing well also, and ran through Kasatkina.. I imagined this was more of Kasatkina just not playing usual level because of alot of matches recently. Sakkari leads 2-0, but they haven't played on grass before, and seems like a perfect revenge spot for Belinda Bencic who is battle tested in this tournament. I don't think Kudermetova is an easy opponent to beat, and I'm not sure if she's in form or not, but I do rate Bencic especially on this surface.. I missed both of their matches yesterday.. If anybody saw them or has opinions on it.. Would be helpful. 
I also noticed that Shuai Zhang is playing very well, and thinking this could be a bit safer, because it seems dangerous to go against Sakkari for some reason in my mind.. Bencic had 7 double faults last match. going to be some tough decisions

Zizou Bergs to beat Andreas Seppi at 2.05 with Unibet
I liked Zizou yesterday but Seppi was a disaster. Seppi will come short here, mark my words.