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Tennis Tips - June 13 - June 19

CzechPunter
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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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35 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, not easy, especially with De Minaur's recent struggles. Depends a lot on the exact conditions as well.

I think Opelka has a really good chance of winning. 

De Minaur is not in great shape, and he was very much bothered by Mannarino's serve. 

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Simeon Borisof

Simeon Borisof

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Well, already at odds against, i will be once again on Dimitrov. He has always let me down, but i feel he could win today. He absolutely loves grass and London as well, playing there 13 times in his entire career. He has the better weapons than Norrie on grass and some would say is the better player of the two overall but lacks consistency. Norrie on the other hand is a  hard worker and on home soil he won't give up for sure but i just think his last year was perfect for him and now his level just dropped. My money goes to Dimitrov @ 2.15 with efbet.

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Torque

Torque

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I've got two favourites, a dog and an acca for today. The favourites are Korda and Brooksby, against Garin and Krajinovic respectively. Like a lot of players that prefer clay, Garin is mediocre on the grass and has only really beaten other clay specialists. Korda started to establish himself on the surface last year and should ease through this one. Krajinovic is another player with poor results on grass whereas Brooksby has done reasonably well on it so far, having made the final in Newport last year where he beat Kudla on the way which is a good result. I'll forgive him the loss to Gaston in his last match - Gaston is awkward to face with all the drop shots. Krajinovic won't be doing that so Brooksby should find this easier.

The dog I like is McNally against Mertens. This is the sort of match that Mertens usually wins - even if she often takes the scenic route - but I'd say this has the makings of an upset. McNally has a lot of wins on grass in the last couple of weeks, compared to Mertens who struggled to beat Sanders and then lost to Van Uytvanck in the same period. When you also consider that Mertens has been dealing with an injury recently and as already mentioned often struggles to win cleanly even when fit, it's not hard to imagine that McNally could take a set here and maybe more.

For the acca, I'm adding Samsonova and Jabeur to Korda and Brooksby. Samsonova faces Zidansek and although her form is poor, she won this tournament last year and her opponent hasn't done much on grass in her career. Jabeur takes on Muchova and this could be a tricky match as it's her first since her shock loss in the opening round of the French Open. Muchova has a good record on grass but like Jabeur, this is her first match on the surface this season and she retired in her last match at the French. They've never met before and I think Muchova will struggle to get to grips with Jabeur's variation and I think that'll be enough to see Jabeur get the win.

 

65pts Korda to beat Garin @ 1.36 365

50pts Brooksby to beat Krajinovic @ 1.50 365

10pts McNally to beat Mertens @ 3.50 365

10pts Korda (vs. Garin) x Brooksby (vs. Krajinovic) x Samsonova (vs. Zidansek) x Jabeur (vs. Muchova) @ 4.29 365

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Simeon Borisof

Simeon Borisof

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I will be on Dan Evans today @ 3.00 with bet365. Looking at his record, grass is his favourite surface. He already won a grass event this week and should be well prepared for today. Berretini is exceptional on grass although i was far from impressed by him in Stuttgart. He returned from a 3 months break with a title but his fitness remains unseen. I think there is every chance he just turns himself off if  things go sideways and focus mainly on the upcoming  WIlmbledon. Dan will give him a good run for sure and i think Berretini runs out of motivation and energy at some point.

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Torque

Torque

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16 hours ago, Torque said:

65pts Korda to beat Garin @ 1.36 365

50pts Brooksby to beat Krajinovic @ 1.50 365

10pts McNally to beat Mertens @ 3.50 365

10pts Korda (vs. Garin) x Brooksby (vs. Krajinovic) x Samsonova (vs. Zidansek) x Jabeur (vs. Muchova) @ 4.29 365

After Korda, Samsonova and McNally all won, it was looking like it was going to be a good day. Unfortunately, Brooksby was beyond bad in his match. When a player you've backed can't hold serve from 40-0 and can't break from 0-40 you know it's not going to be your day. 

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CzechPunter

CzechPunter

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Caty McNally to beat Donna Vekic at 2.31 with Pinnacle

While I'm aiming to back Vekic at some point as the underdog on grass, I can't have her as the fav against McNally, who's had only one poor performance on grass so far this season, losing against the in-form Alexandrova. Vekic can be incredibly shake herself, and I see this as essentially a coin-flip.

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Robinnho

Robinnho

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Caty McNally to beat Donna Vekic at 2.31 with Pinnacle

While I'm aiming to back Vekic at some point as the underdog on grass, I can't have her as the fav against McNally, who's had only one poor performance on grass so far this season, losing against the in-form Alexandrova. Vekic can be incredibly shake herself, and I see this as essentially a coin-flip.

I agree with you that McNally chance of winning is about 50-50 and not what the odds suggest but what put me off in this bet is that Vekic had a day off yesterday whereas McNally played 5 sets of tennis - 3 in Single and 2 in Doubles.

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Torque

Torque

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41 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

When Dimi can't hold serve at 40-0 every service game on grass you know it's not your day. Game handicap 4.5 = big fail

You were a bit unlucky. Botic served incredibly well. Dimitrov might have won if it wasn't for that and then the handicap would have had a chance.

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four-leaf

four-leaf

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19 minutes ago, Torque said:

You were a bit unlucky. Botic served incredibly well. Dimitrov might have won if it wasn't for that and then the handicap would have had a chance.

Only Tom Okker has been in the final of Cinch Open and that was in 1968 so I highly doubt that Botic will somehow be the man to change it but he's ranked 29 now which is pretty decent.

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Torque

Torque

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2 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Only Tom Okker has been in the final of Cinch Open and that was in 1968 so I highly doubt that Botic will somehow be the man to change it but he's ranked 29 now which is pretty decent.

If he continues to serve like he just did then he can win this. A bit like Van Rijthoven last week. 

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CzechPunter

CzechPunter

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Sara Errani to beat Lucrezia Stefanini at 1.61 with Pinnacle

Well, I certainly wasn't expecting to be betting on Errani on grass, but the Gaiba conditions are so specific with their incredibly low bounce that I have to back the more experienced player in this one. She beat another tricky and experienced player in Brengle in the previous round, so she should be primed for a match-up like this, against a younger Italian player that defeated Diatchenko, who I certainly wouldn't fancy to navigate such conditions, in round one.

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four-leaf

four-leaf

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Andreas Seppi is playing Nuno Borges in Ilkley now, come on it's grass where Seppi always have thrived v Borges who is a complete clayguy and he managed to beat Thompson in first round but Thompson was tired after last weeks run in Nottingham. Seppi was 1.61 to win prematch and I got him to win 2-0 at 2.65 and Seppi -3.5 games at 2.45 with Noaccountbet

Either or both of those bets will come in. Seppi already a set up. Needs one break in second and it's over for Nuno. Tie-break could loom but still I see Seppi 2-0 as highly likely and that's where my biggest stake is.

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four-leaf

four-leaf

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46 minutes ago, Robinnho said:

Can D Yastremska upset the inconsistent Ostapenko? Any comment, please?

Oh that's a bit being wrongfooted if you want to bet since both players are prone to errors and lapses in concentration so that's a match I wouldn't have my money at and imo Jelena is the better player on grass of those two.

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four-leaf

four-leaf

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Shuai Zhang to beat Elena Gabriela Ruse at 1.75 with Noaccountbet

Zhang has been decent ever since the later part of last season acctually. Even won US open in doubles. She also has beaten Ruse when Ruse were half the player she is now on clay in Prag 2018 in a straight sets affair and I feel she's pretty decent now and good enough to beat Ruse again who isn't any worldbeater on grass.

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amity

amity

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Watched some of the tennis today and I thought Berretini was pretty unimpressive aside from when his serve was clicking. Kudla probably should have beaten him in two but couldn't take his break points in the second set. On this evidence I wouldn't be expecting Berretini to go deep at Wimbledon. Way too many unforced errors too. 

Querrey was very disappointing I thought, he just doesn't seem to have much of a tennis brain, service aside his all round game was markedly inferior to Krajinovic, who played some good stuff, but was helped by Querrey's ineptitude. Still though the Serb played with confidence and I'd expect him to overcome the young Brit Peniston in the next match. 

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