Hitch

Newcastle vs. Liverpool
I really don't see Liverpool winning this game comfortably. They've only had 3 days to prepare for this match and they will surely be tired both physically and emotionally after their 3-0 away defeat to Barcelona last Wednesday. I think they'll be looking to get the job done and I see them winning this game 0-1 or so. They haven't exactly blown teams out of the water away from home in the EPL this season as they've only beaten two teams by 2+ goals away from home all season. 
As for Newcastle, they've won 6 of their last 7 home matches, including a 2-1 win over City. They are a defensively organized team and have only lost once at home all season by more than a two-goal margin. And while they did lose to United, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham at home, only one of those matches was lost by more than a one-goal margin and I think they could manage to frustrate Liverpool for a while. I simply don't see them losing here by more than a two-goal margin. 
Newcastle AH +2.0 @ 1.47 with Betfair - 10 units

Lazio vs. Atalanta
Two teams going head to head here competing for a Champions League spot. Gasperini's Atalanta have been a surprise package this season and play some of the most entertaining attacking football in the league. 
Before their last home match, Lazio had only lost to Juventus, Inter, and Napoli this season, but then they surprisingly and disappointingly lost to a Chievo team that is dead last in the league with only 15 points to their name in 34 matches. Their home form has generally been decent (7th best in the league) but their results against the teams in the league have been very poor:
Home and away defeats against Juventus Home and away defeats against Napoli Home draw and away defeat against Milan Home defeat and away win against Inter Home win and away defeat against Roma Away defeat against Atalanta Home draw against Torino So they've collected just 5 points out of a possible 18 at home against 6 of the 7 teams above them in the table, excluding Atalanta. 
Atalanta, on the other hand, drew 0-0 against Inter and defeated Napoli 2-1 in their last two away games. They also drew against both Milan and Roma earlier in the season and have yet to play Juventus in Turin but they did knock them out of the Coppa Italia, so they've shown time and time again this season that they deserve to be in the running for a CL spot. 
I think Atalanta are underpriced to get a result here. 
Atalanta AH +0.25 @ 1.94 with Betfair - 8 Units

Newcastle vs. Liverpool
I really don't see Liverpool winning this game comfortably. They've only had 3 days to prepare for this match and they will surely be tired both physically and emotionally after their 3-0 away defeat to Barcelona last Wednesday. I think they'll be looking to get the job done and I see them winning this game 0-1 or so. They haven't exactly blown teams out of the water away from home in the EPL this season as they've only beaten two teams by 2+ goals away from home all season. 
As for Newcastle, they've won 6 of their last 7 home matches, including a 2-1 win over City. They are a defensively organized team and have only lost once at home all season by more than a two-goal margin. And while they did lose to United, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham at home, only one of those matches was lost by more than a one-goal margin and I think they could manage to frustrate Liverpool for a while. I simply don't see them losing here by more than a two-goal margin. 
Newcastle AH +2.0 @ 1.47 with Betfair - 10 units

Liverpool vs Huddersfield
The Premier League title race takes centre stage on Friday night when Liverpool host already relegated Huddersfield in an 8pm kick-off from Anfield. Can the Reds leapfrog league leaders Manchester City with a win and maintain the pressure on their title rivals?
Liverpool are doing everything they can to stay in the title race. Jurgen Klopp's men are undefeated in the league since their 3rd January loss to Manchester City. In addition to that, the Reds have now won six league games in a row including keeping back-to-back clean sheets.
Huddersfield are a contradictory tale with Jan Siewert's side having already known their relegation fate for a number of weeks now. The Terriers are in 20th place with just 14 points accumulated so far this season. It's now 20 defeats from their last 22 league matches and that includes 7 league losses on the bounce. Easy to see why the bookies heavily favour Liverpool here. Especially because Huddersfield have only won 1 of their 17 away games in the league this season. It could also be the fact that Huddersfield haven't won at Liverpool since 18th August, 1956.
As everyone has suggested, there's no value in a home win. It seems almost inevitable. However, it's worth noting that despite Huddersfield not getting the results this season they hardly ever get properly turned over by teams. Only on 4 occasions in their last 22 league games has a team beaten them by more than 2 goals. I can see something similar happening here with the Liverpool nerves. The longer Huddersfield dig in, the more nervy the home fans may get. I'm thinking a handicap for Huddersfield might be worth a bet here.
Huddersfield +4 @ 1.62 with Sportingbet
Total Goals Scored Under 3.5 @ 2.48 with 888Sport
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Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace
The Gunners are chasing a CL spot in what is a very tight race, and a win today would see them go third and above Spurs for the first time this season if I'm not mistaken. Arsenal's home form this season has been incredible, with 10 consecutive home wins in the EPL so far and only one loss against City on the opening day and two draws against Liverpool and Wolves. 
I think we're going to see another win here in what is a must-win game for them if they want to get one step closer to qualifying for the CL, especially given their away form, what has been rather poor this season.
The two main concerns are:
Arsenal just played in the Europa League on Thursday and managed to qualify to the semi-final over Napoli so they haven't had much time to rest and prepare for this match. Crystal Palace's form away from home is actually better than their home form. They rank 19th at home and 7th away from home. Still, we have to consider that:
12 out of Arsenal's 14 home games this season were won by more than one goal. While Crystal Palace did beat City at the Etihad this season, they had some wonder goals that game and they did lose against Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham away from home. Palace have the biggest difference in the league between their xG and actual goals scored away from home, suggesting they either have world-class strikers, or they've been a bit lucky. I think it's more the latter and I don't think they'll keep outplaying their xG as they have been. Arsenal have improved defensively recently as they've conceded just one goal in their last seven matches in all competitions. Overall, I think Arsenal have more to play for and they do relish playing these home games against weaker opposition.
Arsenal AH -1.0 @ 1.89 with Betfair

Yeah, I'm taking the exact same bet here. Barcelona are just too good at home, especially in the CL. They've defeated the likes of Lyon, Inter, Roma, Chelsea, Juventus, and PSG over the past two years by more than one goal, and the majority of these teams are better than this United side, in my opinion. They also haven't conceded more than one goal at the Camp Nou in the CL in the past 30 games.
And if we look at the first leg, I think Barcelona never got out of 2nd gear and United had ZERO shots on target. With United struggling recently and needing to score, coupled with the fact that Barcelona's best players were rested on the weekend, I'm all over this.

Barcelona vs Manchester United
The second leg of one of the less balanced ties of this round of the Champions League takes place tonight when Barcelona take a 1-0 first leg lead to the Nou Camp to face Manchester United. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer created Champions League history in this ground 20 years ago. Can he inspire another historic European football moment here?
Barcelona scraped through with a win at Old Trafford but it was a performance that left many United fans feeling they could still turn this tie around. Personally, I think they're dreaming. They didn't even register a shot on goal during the first leg. This Barcelona side won't fold like PSG did in the last round and I'd be amazed if the Red Devils even managed to get a draw out of this.
Everyone knows United's form has dropped off since Solskjaer was given the job on a full-time basis. Their tactics are also clear as day. Barcelona simply need to sit back and hit them on the counter attack. I could see them losing this by 2-3 goals if they aren't careful.
The stats don't read well for United. Barcelona have never lost a home game against the Red Devils. Their last encounter finished 0-0 back in April, 2008. On the 70 times when a side has won the first leg of their Champions League knockout tie away from home only 6% have failed to progress to the next round. That's four teams. That said, two of those sides came in this season's competition and one of them was United in the previous round.
Ernesto Valverde's side have now extended their undefeated streak at home in this competition to 30 matches. It's the longest run of its kind in the Champions League. Interestingly, they have also not conceded more than once in any of those games. However, 90% of United's goals scored in this season's Champions League have come away from home.
I appreciate some are saying United are a better side away from home in Europe this season but let's be real. This is Barcelona. La Liga champions elect. Lionel Messi inspired. At the Nou Camp. Possessing a first leg lead. United used up all their gusto and luck in the PSG game. It won't happen again here. Barcelona to win by 1 or 2 goals to seal United's exit.
Barcelona -1 @ 2.00 with SpreadEx
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.51 with RedZone
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Torino vs Cagliari
Serie A is full of a lot of glamorous sides that have made clubs around Europe quake in their boots with fear down the years so it's always a pleasure covering this league. However, this weekend, we're dropping down the league ladder slightly to cover Torino's match with Cagliari in an 11:30am kick-off at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino on Sunday morning.
Torino are flirting with qualifying for Europe this season with the club in 8th place and only a couple of points off the tempo. Walter Mazzarri has done a cracking job with their efforts spear-headed by potent striker Andrea Belotti. A win here could move them ahead of the likes of Roma, Atalanta, and AC Milan. Given the fact they've won 9 of their 15 home games including 6 of their last 7, it seems quite a likely outcome.
Cagliari are milling around in mid-table in 12th place. Rolando Maran's side are 8 points clear of the relegation places with 7 league games to go so their players would be forgiven for not quite having their motivation levels at 100% as the summer approaches. The fact they have an awful away record also makes it a match that could not end well for them. Just 2 wins from their 15 away matches means only Udinese, Chievo, and Empoli have picked up less points on their travels this season.
I'm going to have to back a solid Torino win here. They still have something to play for and have only lost 1 of their last 11 league games keeping 7 clean sheets in the process. Cagliari have won 3 of their last 4 league games but this is an away game so I'm sceptical they'll deliver.
Torino to Win @ 1.83 with Bet365
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.71 with MarathonBet
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Watford vs Wolves
The second FA Cup Semi-Final is coming up on Sunday afternoon at 4pm from Wembley Stadium when Premier League mid-table clubs Watford and Wolves go head-to-head. Both clubs have their own fair share of history but winning the competition this season would be up there with some of their greatest moments of all-time.
Watford have had a season that has defied the odds. Many, including myself, thought they may struggle under Javi Gracia this season. The Hornets are currently 9th in the Premier League with top flight status already assured for next season and a potential date with the FA Cup Final still up for grabs.
Wolves have enjoyed equal levels of success. Nuno Santo's newly promoted side were tipped by many to thrive in the top division of English football but few saw the number of big name scalps they would take along the way. It was the shock defeat of Manchester United in the previous round that helped them reach this stage of the competition after all. Not a bad bonus to add to their 8th place in the Premier League.
It is Wolves that hold the advantage quite heavily in FA Cup meetings between these two sides. Watford have only managed 1 win in the last 7 meetings in this competition and that came in a 3-0 victory back in February, 1980. The positive is that Watford did win the previous meeting between these two sides earlier in the season.
Santo is expected to name John Ruddy as his keeper for this game ahead of regular number one Rui Patricio. Ruddy has held the gloves in every round so far. Is it an unnecessary gamble by Santo or is it even a gamble at all? Watford are also hoping Roberto Pereyra passes a late fitness test to play.
I was initially going to back a score draw with one of these sides prevailing after penalties. However, I think Wolves could once again suffer from being undone by a team they're expected to beat. This whole season could have been even better for Wolves if they'd defeated the lower placed sides as much as the top six. For every win over United, Chelsea, and Tottenham, there has come a defeat to the likes of Huddersfield, Cardiff, and Brighton. I think Watford could sneak this one over 90 minutes.
Watford to Win @ 3.16 with MarathonBet
BTTS @ 1.90 with Bet365

Bournemouth vs. Burnley
I feel like Bournemouth are slightly underrated in this match. While both teams aren't in the best of form, Bournemouth's home form is completely different from their away form. As for Burnley, they went on a great run of 5 wins and 3 draws but then they suffered 4 straight defeats before winning their last match against Wolves, which I feel is a factor in why the bookies might be overrating Burnley here but that win was at home, and while Wolves are great against the "Big Six", they actually have a very poor record against the bottom teams in the premier league.
Bournemouth have lost just four matches at home all season - from Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City - and won 7 and drew 5. Only the "Big Six" and Wolves have a better xG at home than Bournemouth and they're are ranked 11th in xGA, whereas Burnley are ranked 15th in xG and 19th in xGA away from home so far this season. Burnley have won just three away matches all season; against Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Brighton, and have drawn 4 and lost 9. My main concern is that Bournemouth might be lacking in motivation at the moment given their mid-table standing, whereas Burnley are fighting to avoid relegation and would love to get something out of this match before their six-pointer vs. Cardiff next week.
Having said that, I still think Bournemouth will be too strong for them at home. They could've easily won their recent two home matches against Wolves and Newcastle instead of drawing them; they missed an 85th-minute penalty in the former and conceded a 94th-minute goal in the latter and were the better team in both matches with a superior xG.
Bournemouth to win @ 2.14 with Betfair - 4 units

Bournemouth vs. Burnley
I feel like Bournemouth are slightly underrated in this match. While both teams aren't in the best of form, Bournemouth's home form is completely different from their away form. As for Burnley, they went on a great run of 5 wins and 3 draws but then they suffered 4 straight defeats before winning their last match against Wolves, which I feel is a factor in why the bookies might be overrating Burnley here but that win was at home, and while Wolves are great against the "Big Six", they actually have a very poor record against the bottom teams in the premier league.
Bournemouth have lost just four matches at home all season - from Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City - and won 7 and drew 5. Only the "Big Six" and Wolves have a better xG at home than Bournemouth and they're are ranked 11th in xGA, whereas Burnley are ranked 15th in xG and 19th in xGA away from home so far this season. Burnley have won just three away matches all season; against Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Brighton, and have drawn 4 and lost 9. My main concern is that Bournemouth might be lacking in motivation at the moment given their mid-table standing, whereas Burnley are fighting to avoid relegation and would love to get something out of this match before their six-pointer vs. Cardiff next week.
Having said that, I still think Bournemouth will be too strong for them at home. They could've easily won their recent two home matches against Wolves and Newcastle instead of drawing them; they missed an 85th-minute penalty in the former and conceded a 94th-minute goal in the latter and were the better team in both matches with a superior xG.
Bournemouth to win @ 2.14 with Betfair - 4 units

Inter Milan vs Atalanta
Oh, Atalanta, my old foe. We meet again. I know, I promised myself I wouldn't go near an Atalanta game again after their treatment of me last season but, alas, I'm back for more punishment. In this game, Inter Milan are their opposition in a 5pm kick-off at the San Siro this Sunday afternoon.
Inter Milan are in 3rd place and there is a universe of difference between Luciano Spalletti's side and league leaders Juventus. The gap between the two teams is 25 points and it means Inter are almost closer to the relegation zone than they are to the team at the top of the table. It's always realistically been about qualifying for the Champions League for Inter so winning this will go a long way to achieving that. Inter have only won 2 of their last 5 home league games so that's a potential cause for concern.
Atalanta are just behind Inter in 5th place and just 1 point off the pace of the Champions League qualification spots. Defeat here could seriously de-stabilise those hopes of breaking into the top four but a win would really put the cat amongst the pigeons. Gian Piero Gasperini's men are undefeated in their last 5 league games having won 4 of those matches.
I can see why Inter are priced as they are. Atalanta's current form is impressive. Atalanta also boast the fourth best away record in the division having won their last two games on the road in the league. I just think this game will end up resulting in a home win and Inter will move a step closer to Champions League football next season.
Inter Milan to Win @ 2.12 with MarathonBet
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.85 with Unibet
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Manchester City vs Brighton
The first FA Cup Semi-Final this weekend is technically a David vs Goliath match-up with Premier League title contenders Manchester City taking on top flight relegation candidates Brighton in a 5:30pm kick-off this Saturday afternoon at Wembley Stadium.
Manchester City are still looking to complete an historic quadruple. The first task was achieved earlier this season with the victory in the Carabao Cup Final against Chelsea. Pep Guardiola's men are still competing in the Premier League, Champions League, and this competition. The team's last taste of defeat in any competition was on 29th January against Newcastle in league action. It feels like the Citizens are now hitting full stride and it could take something phenomenal to beat them.
Brighton have their own issues in the league. Chris Hughton's men haven't scored in their last two league matches. It's left the Seagulls just 5 points outside the relegation zone and they have one of the toughest run-ins of fixtures out of the teams involved in that relegation battle. The FA Cup is a chance for the club to forget about the stresses of the league and create a bit of their own history by winning here.
City have won the last three meetings between these two sides. Interestingly, the last time these two teams met in cup action it delivered a win for Brighton. OK, so it was back on 24th September, 2008 in the League Cup. Both teams were in completely different places but it did see Brighton win 5-3 on penalties after a 2-2 draw after extra-time.
I'm not sure this is going any other way than a City win. Guardiola rested a number of key players against Cardiff in midweek so a large portion of their first team players will be fit coming into this game. City have won by a two goal margin in each of the last three meetings and I can see that happening again here.
Manchester City -1 @ 1.44 with Sportingbet
Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 2.34 with MarathonBet
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Definitely agree, @vicsuna. This game has goals written all over it, and the prices exhibit that, but I would've expected a shorter price for BTTS than 1.8. 
Atalanta vs. Bologna
Each side here is fighting for something; Atalanta for a CL spot and Bologna are fighting to avoid relegation. Both come into this match in good form with Atalanta winning 3 of their 4 and drawing 1, whereas Bologna have won their last 3, including an impressive 2-3 away win at Torino, especially considering the fact that only 4 teams have conceded fewer goals at home than Torino. 
In terms of stats:
Atalanta have kept just 6 clean sheets out of 29 matches played so far this season and 4 out of 13 at home in Serie A. BTTS was seen in each of Atalanta's last 6 home matches in Serie A. Atalanta have failed to score just 6 times out of 29 matches in Serie A, and only once in the last 21 matches. Bologna have kept just 7 clean sheets out of 29 matches played so far this season and 3 out of 15 away from home in Serie A. BTTS was seen in 5 out of Bologna's last 6 away matches. Bologna have failed to score in 10 of their 29 matches in Serie A, but have scored in 9 out of their 11, and have scored in 4 out of 5 matches since manager Mihajlovic took over - only failing to score against Juventus.  When looking at expected goals and goals against overall this season:
Atalanta are ranked 7th in xG but also rank 4th best in xGA at home. Bologna are ranked 9th in xG and 12th in xGA away from home.  Given the stats above and the fact that both sides are fighting for a CL spot and to avoid relegation, respectively, I think there's some value here in these odds for BTTS, even if the price dropped since yesterday. 
BTTS @ 1.8 with Betfair - 7 Units

Roma vs. Fiorentina
Both teams head into this match not in the best of form; Roma have 1 win and 4 losses in their last five matches in all competitions and Fiorentina have 3 draws and 2 losses in their last five matches.
In terms of goals, this is where things get interesting:
All 9 out of Roma's last 9 consecutive matches at home in Serie A have seen both teams score and 8 of them were Over 2.5. Roma have scored in 19 out of their 21 home matches in all competitions this season. Roma have scored in their last 16 consecutive matches in all competitions since a 1-0 against Juventus in December. 12 out of Roma's 14 home matches in Serie A this season saw BTTS.  Fiorentina's last 6 consecutive away matches in Serie A this season have seen BTTS, and 5 of them were Over 2.5.  Fiorentina have scored in 12 out of their 16 away matches and 12 out of their last 13 matches overall in all competitions this season. 10 out of Fiorentina's 15 away matches this season have seen BTTS. Also, in terms of Expected Goals and Goals Against:
Roma have the highest xG at home in the league so far this season. Roma have the worst xGA at home in the top 9, with only 7 teams in the league with a worse xGA at home than them. Fiorentina have the 6th best xG away from home in the league so far.  (Fiorentina have the 6th best xGA away from home so far.) In terms of injuries and suspensions, Fiorentina's joint top scorer Chiesa and midfielder Fernandes are out, but they aren't reliant on him to score goals. As for Roma, top scorer El Shaarawy is also out but they still have Kolarov and Dzeko who are more than capable of scoring. Defensively, Roma will be without both Manolas and Florenzi, which makes it less likely for them to keep a clean sheet here today against a side that has scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. 
Besides the fact that Roma will be looking to avenge Fiorentina's 7-1 win over them in the Coppa Italia last January, they will push forward to try and get all 3 points here as they chase a champions league spot, and Fiorentina's Stefano Pioli is under pressure after a string of bad results so he'll also be looking to get something positive out of this match as well.
BTTS @ 1.66 with Betfair - 8 units

Definitely agree, @vicsuna. This game has goals written all over it, and the prices exhibit that, but I would've expected a shorter price for BTTS than 1.8. 
Atalanta vs. Bologna
Each side here is fighting for something; Atalanta for a CL spot and Bologna are fighting to avoid relegation. Both come into this match in good form with Atalanta winning 3 of their 4 and drawing 1, whereas Bologna have won their last 3, including an impressive 2-3 away win at Torino, especially considering the fact that only 4 teams have conceded fewer goals at home than Torino. 
In terms of stats:
Atalanta have kept just 6 clean sheets out of 29 matches played so far this season and 4 out of 13 at home in Serie A. BTTS was seen in each of Atalanta's last 6 home matches in Serie A. Atalanta have failed to score just 6 times out of 29 matches in Serie A, and only once in the last 21 matches. Bologna have kept just 7 clean sheets out of 29 matches played so far this season and 3 out of 15 away from home in Serie A. BTTS was seen in 5 out of Bologna's last 6 away matches. Bologna have failed to score in 10 of their 29 matches in Serie A, but have scored in 9 out of their 11, and have scored in 4 out of 5 matches since manager Mihajlovic took over - only failing to score against Juventus.  When looking at expected goals and goals against overall this season:
Atalanta are ranked 7th in xG but also rank 4th best in xGA at home. Bologna are ranked 9th in xG and 12th in xGA away from home.  Given the stats above and the fact that both sides are fighting for a CL spot and to avoid relegation, respectively, I think there's some value here in these odds for BTTS, even if the price dropped since yesterday. 
BTTS @ 1.8 with Betfair - 7 Units

Roma vs. Fiorentina
Both teams head into this match not in the best of form; Roma have 1 win and 4 losses in their last five matches in all competitions and Fiorentina have 3 draws and 2 losses in their last five matches.
In terms of goals, this is where things get interesting:
All 9 out of Roma's last 9 consecutive matches at home in Serie A have seen both teams score and 8 of them were Over 2.5. Roma have scored in 19 out of their 21 home matches in all competitions this season. Roma have scored in their last 16 consecutive matches in all competitions since a 1-0 against Juventus in December. 12 out of Roma's 14 home matches in Serie A this season saw BTTS.  Fiorentina's last 6 consecutive away matches in Serie A this season have seen BTTS, and 5 of them were Over 2.5.  Fiorentina have scored in 12 out of their 16 away matches and 12 out of their last 13 matches overall in all competitions this season. 10 out of Fiorentina's 15 away matches this season have seen BTTS. Also, in terms of Expected Goals and Goals Against:
Roma have the highest xG at home in the league so far this season. Roma have the worst xGA at home in the top 9, with only 7 teams in the league with a worse xGA at home than them. Fiorentina have the 6th best xG away from home in the league so far.  (Fiorentina have the 6th best xGA away from home so far.) In terms of injuries and suspensions, Fiorentina's joint top scorer Chiesa and midfielder Fernandes are out, but they aren't reliant on him to score goals. As for Roma, top scorer El Shaarawy is also out but they still have Kolarov and Dzeko who are more than capable of scoring. Defensively, Roma will be without both Manolas and Florenzi, which makes it less likely for them to keep a clean sheet here today against a side that has scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. 
Besides the fact that Roma will be looking to avenge Fiorentina's 7-1 win over them in the Coppa Italia last January, they will push forward to try and get all 3 points here as they chase a champions league spot, and Fiorentina's Stefano Pioli is under pressure after a string of bad results so he'll also be looking to get something positive out of this match as well.
BTTS @ 1.66 with Betfair - 8 units

Liverpool vs Tottenham
The Premier League delivers a crucial game for the title race this weekend when league leaders Liverpool welcome Champions League qualification chasing Tottenham to Anfield for this 4:30pm kick-off on Sunday. There is a lot at stake for both teams here so who will prevail victorious?
Liverpool remain top of the league table but only by the virtue of 2 points and an extra game played. By the time this game comes around it's likely that Manchester City will have leap frogged them after their match against relegation strugglers Fulham. The Reds are still in the Champions League and have only lost one league game this season but many are now labelling them as second favourites in the title race after a run of just 4 wins in their last 8 league games.
Tottenham's league campaign is going slightly off the rails. Mauricio Pochettino's side have failed to win in their last 4 league matches now. That includes three defeats to Burnley, Chelsea, and Southampton. All away games. Those results have sucked Spurs into the top four battle when it had seemed they were all but home and hosed.
The teams news will not deliver much hope for the away side. Eric Dier, Harry Winks, and Serge Aurier are all ruled out. This adds woe to the awful head-to-head record Tottenham have against Liverpool. The Reds have only lost 1 of their last 13 encounters against the London side. Tottenham have also only won once in their last 24 visits to Anfield. It doesn't bode well.
I can see this being a tighter game than some expect. I think the positive news about Tottenham moving into their new stadium will add a feel-good factor around the club. I just think Liverpool possess too much for Tottenham. Jurgen Klopp will throw everything at Tottenham and it will result in a narrow home win.
Liverpool to Win @ 1.64 with MarathonBet
BTTS @ 1.75 with Betway

I'm on Burnley to beat Wolves.  Main reasoning is as I say every week, Wolves don't turn up to play the lesser PL teams and Burnley are definitely in that category.  Wolves also have Man Utd on Tuesday and then the FA Cup semi final next weekend.  I think they just want to get through this game and don't really care about the result a great deal.
Burnley have been in poor form but the international break came at a good time for them and now they have a great chance to get some points and push clear of Cardiff before their game on Sunday.  Wolves form in the PL isn't all that great either.  They lost to Huddersfield which takes some doing and I think Burnley are good things to take advantage of a dis-interested Wolves team with a focus on Tuesday and next weekend.  Burnley at 3.25 (betfair) with a decent stake for me.

Atletico Madrid vs Leganes

As @StevieDay1983 already mentioned, Atletico comes into this match in very good form, having won their last four matches to nil in all competitions, with Morata in good form as well. It's also the best home team so far this season, having failed to win just three matches at home all season; against Real Madrid recently (loss), Barcelona in November (draw), and Eibar back in September (draw).

What does concern me though, is that:
Two of their best players - Godin and Koke - are suspended. They also have no natural left-back at the moment with both Lucas Hernandez and Filipe Luis out injured. Simeone might decide to rest some other key players with their upcoming Champions League match against Juventus on Tuesday, and/or the team might not be fully focused because of that CL match. Having said that, I do think that Simone will want to head into the CL match with another win of course, and the league isn't completely lost already. Atletico is seven points away from Barcelona with thirty-six points left to play for, and a match between the two of them at the Camp Nou still left as well, so there's no reason why Simone should be giving up on the league just yet.
On the flip side, Leganes is one of the worst away sides in the league (18th in the away table) and has even bigger problems than Atletico when it comes to team selection; four of their most important players are all out due to suspension or injury. Pichu Cuellar, Siovas, Silva, and Oscar Rodriguez have played the most for Leganes (in terms of minutes) so far this season and they're all out for this match. Another regular, Bustinza, is also out injured. So it's safe to say Leganes heads into this match with significantly more team selection problems (mostly in the midfield and at the back) compared to Atletico.
While I do expect Atletico to win this match to nil, the absence of Godin does concern me though, so that's the only reason why I won't be backing that selection. I think Simeone will want his team to go out, lead by half-time, and then control the game and not exert too much energy before their CL match against Juventus, so I'm backing Atletico to win and Atletico HT/FT as well.
Atletico Madrid @ 1.5 with Betfair (6 units)

Atletico Madrid HT/FT @ 2.38 with Betfair (3 units)

Atletico Madrid vs Leganes
La Liga is winding down already. Barcelona look set to win the title. Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid are set to qualify for the Champions League again. A few teams will then battle it out for the Europa League and against relegation. It's a low key finish. Here, we see Atletico face Leganes in a 3:15pm kick-off this Saturday at the Wanda Metropolitano.
Atletico Madrid have now won three league games in a row and each of those matches have resulted in a clean sheet. It's now 376 minutes of competitive football without conceding a goal for Diego Simeone's side. It seems hard to imagine them conceding in a home game against team that have only scored 2 goals in their last 3 league games.
Leganes might have drawn and won their last two league matches but Mauricio Pellegrino's side are still struggling to find the consistency needed to lift them above their mid-table position and into the next level of competing to potentially qualify for the Europa League.
This game is firmly in favour of Atletico. The club have only lost once at home in the league this season and have conceded just 7 goals in 13 home matches in league competition. In contrast, Leganes are awful on the road having won just 2 of their 13 league matches away and having conceded 21 goals during those matches. I'm backing a clean sheet win for Atletico here.
Atletico Madrid HT/FT @ 2.38 with Coral
Atletico Madrid to Win to Nil @ 2.05 with Bet365

@Pep004, @Magic0024, @betcatalog, @malabgd, @AndreBR, @Xcout, @four-leaf, @sajtion, @Arkadi Manucharov, @Jamesboaz, @RealUnited, @allyhibs, @jazzman02, @Mr.Paul, @notanotherdonkey, @Marek76, @freestylerx, @DonPaulo, @fhuefdsa, @laprikon, @Gabosbet, @Dr. Florida192, @thinkpink63, @MarioDunav, @EuroDream, @vicsuna, and @derbent, what bets are you all planning on putting down this weekend?

Real Betis vs. Getafe
Both teams here are chasing Champions League football next season, which would be an amazing achievement for either of them. Real Betis players have been spread thinly though, playing on three fronts and this will be their 16th game in 57 days for an average of a game every 3.5 days over the past two months, which is a lot of matches for a team that doesn't have the squad depth of a top CL side. 
Getafe, meanwhile, has had more time to rest and prepare for this game and won't be as fatigued for sure. This is also a very tough team to break down and has only lost 6 games in 25 matches so far this season, with 4 of these coming against the 'top 3'. They also possess a deadly front two of Jaime Mata and Jorge Molina, who have 10 goals each in La Liga so far this season, and both are currently in good form.
I think the odds for a Getafe win present real value here. Having said that, they do tend to draw a lot of matches, so I'll be backing them on the AH +0.5 and DNB as well.
Getafe AH +0.5 @ 1.69 with Betfair (8 units)
Getafe DNB @ 2.48 with Betfair (8 units)

Real Betis vs. Getafe
Both teams here are chasing Champions League football next season, which would be an amazing achievement for either of them. Real Betis players have been spread thinly though, playing on three fronts and this will be their 16th game in 57 days for an average of a game every 3.5 days over the past two months, which is a lot of matches for a team that doesn't have the squad depth of a top CL side. 
Getafe, meanwhile, has had more time to rest and prepare for this game and won't be as fatigued for sure. This is also a very tough team to break down and has only lost 6 games in 25 matches so far this season, with 4 of these coming against the 'top 3'. They also possess a deadly front two of Jaime Mata and Jorge Molina, who have 10 goals each in La Liga so far this season, and both are currently in good form.
I think the odds for a Getafe win present real value here. Having said that, they do tend to draw a lot of matches, so I'll be backing them on the AH +0.5 and DNB as well.
Getafe AH +0.5 @ 1.69 with Betfair (8 units)
Getafe DNB @ 2.48 with Betfair (8 units)

While I mostly agree with your analysis overall, one thing that does concern me that you haven't mentioned is that Real Sociedad is missing three key players from its squad:
Willian Jose (top scorer) - suspended Theo Hernandez (left-back) - suspended Asier Illarramendi (defensive midfielder) - Injured

Just wanted to highlight 1 of the points above as i feel if you operate a pay for tipping service you really ought to know a little better.
Kiev aren't out of season nor did they finish second on goal difference.
 
They are simply in a 3 month winter break and have therefore only played friendlies since. They do though sit second currently (on goal difference) but still have 10 games left in their campaign.
Not sure what difference this could make to anybodies betting but feel it should be corrected as it might make some sort of impact on a punters decision as to where to put his hard earned. 
Might seem a small thing but small things matter when betting and as mentioned i noticed the poster provides a paid for service so should be "more professional" when providing statistics and "facts"
Please don't take this the wrong way my intention isnt to offend but i have strong feelings on tipsters...particularly those that charge so would expect accuracy as a minimum.
 
regards