Premier League Predictions > Apr 5th - 8th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

It's a reduced fixture schedule in the Premier League this coming weekend with the FA Cup Semi-Finals taking place. Only the six league games lined up between Friday and Monday. Let us know what bets you're eyeing up for these games as we get down to the serious twitchy bum time of the season! 

[thfc]

This is a tough game for Liverpool IMO and they are too short in the outrights for me.  Saints have won 3 of their last 5 and were unlucky to lose one of those to Man Utd away.  The crowd will be well up for this one given the good form of the home team and the number of ex Saints players in the Liverpool team to boo!

I saw something the other day that if the PL table began when Hassenhuttl came in, Saints are something like 7th or 8th in the table.  That's pretty impressive given he hasn't spent any money in January so is working with the same players who were underperforming previously.

Of course Liverpool are the better team but they didn't play all that well last weekend (second half especially) and some have questioned whether their form is dipping slightly.  Players like Salah aren't scoring, and they have the distraction of the champions league coming up next week, although on paper a good tie against Porto.

At these prices, I think Saints are worth a shot to give Liverpool a competitive game.  Unusually for me, i'm thinking this game looks a good candidate for a draw and at 4.8 I think that's a fair price.  I also want some stake on Saints +2 at around 1.7 as if Liverpool do win, I don't see it being by a 2 or 3 goal margin.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Liverpool have been undefeated in their last 5 away matches in Premier League.
Liverpool have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 matches in Premier League.
Liverpool have scored the opening goal in 72% of their matches in Premier League.
Southampton conceded at least 1 goal in 80% of their home matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 58 Football Betting Streaks for 05.04.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-05-04-2019-13954

[malabgd]

Southampton v Liverpool FC

Southampton: Danny Ings (19/7 f, top scorer, loan from Liverpool), Mario Lemina (18/0 m), Michael Obafemi (6/1 f)

Liverpool FC: Joe Gomez (13/0 d, doubtful), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[StevieDay1983]

Southampton vs Liverpool

The Premier League title race enters another chapter tonight when relegation battlers Southampton host title challengers Liverpool in an 8pm kick-off at St Mary's Stadium. Will we see the Reds move back to the top of the league table or could they hand Manchester City a serious advantage by dropping points?

Southampton enjoyed a new manager bounce under Ralph Hasenhuttl back in December but just 2 wins in the next 9 league games followed. The Saints have since won 3 of their last 4 league games to help lift them away from the drop zone and give their fans serious hope of staying up this season.

Liverpool can move to the top spot again with a win here. Jurgen Klopp's side have won their last three league games in a row but they did ride their luck in their most recent victory over Tottenham. A similar gung ho approach might not prove successful this time around for the Reds.

The head-to-head record really doesn't look good for Southampton. Liverpool have an 8-0 aggregate lead over their past three league meetings. Southampton have also failed to score in each of their last five league meetings with Liverpool. It's now just 1 win in 10 league matches against Liverpool for Southampton.

I've been swaying about what outcome to back all week on this one. Southampton will provide a stern challenge for Liverpool but I just think the Reds are so dangerous in attack this season that they should sneak a tight win. I just wouldn't be surprised if Southampton held on for a draw given their current form. So I'll stay clear of an outright and just back a low-scoring game.

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.32 with Blacktype

Total Corners Over 9.5 @ 1.75 with Betfair

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @yossa6133, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, @thfc, @Dboston, @Dr. Florida192, @money44, @1moregoal, @ggm31v, @EuroDream, @ndanmak, @cummins91, @vicsuna, @abigail, @Carovie, and @AndreBR, what bets are you guys all thinking of backing this week?

[waynecoyne]

i've had a bit of a daft bet on the southampton liverpool game:

The racing post has josh sims to start up top with redmond, i don't know why.

Anyhow, his goal minutes were 3 to buy with spreadex (now moved up to 4) which if he does play up front (normally a winger) will be cheap. He hasn't however scored in his career in 41 games. He probably won't start and if so the bet is void, if he does play up front then he will be around 8 to buy.

Edited April 5, 2019 by waynecoyne

[StevieDay1983]

48 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:

i've had a bit of a daft bet on the southampton liverpool game:

The racing post has josh sims to start up top with redmond, i don't know why.

Anyhow, his goal minutes were 3 to buy with spreadex (now moved up to 4) which if he does play up front (normally a winger) will be cheap. He hasn't however scored in his career in 41 games. He probably won't start and if so the bet is void, if he does play up front then he will be around 8 to buy.

That's a bold strategy, Wayne! Is it a suggestion that Hasenhuttl is simply resting players for this game or is he being forced to play Sims?

[Bett]

I'm going for a Liverpool win. In good form, and i see them continuing it. 

[waynecoyne]

12 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

That's a bold strategy, Wayne! Is it a suggestion that Hasenhuttl is simply resting players for this game or is he being forced to play Sims?

As i said Stevie i don't know why the racing post think he will play up front. Long was injured but is back in the squad, Ings is ineligible, obafemi is injured, so i would expect austin or long to play. I have only placed the bet on the basis of value. I don't think he will start and the bet will be void, but if he does play as a striker the current price will be too low and revised upwards.

[ndanmak]

I have picked two games for my long accumulator Bournemouth at home usually perform well.DNB Bournemouth @ 1.48

Leicester away to Huddersfield.I will play a DNB as well @1.26

Everton vs Arsenal i am tempted to think Everton can nick a point in this game.Double chance is at 1.67.I will skip this as Arsenal is my team.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Huddersfield have conceded 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 matches in Premier League.
Leicester City have scored in each of their last 7 matches in Premier League.
33% of Newcastle Utd’s conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Premier League.
68% of Bournemouth’s points have been earned at home in Premier League.

You can find interesting 134 Football Betting Streaks for 06.04.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-06-04-2019-13957

[vicsuna]

Southampton vs Liverpool: Draw

I totally agree with @thfc and like to follow his Premiership tips, which are very often on the money. The odds for a draw are too high for reality and I believe bookies are giving too low odds for Liverpool win. Klopp has won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 vs Southampton in all competitions.. It is true that Klopp has won last 3 games vs Southampton in Premiership, but the other 4 games in the league are 3 draws and 1 loss. Klopp's stats at St. Mary's Stadium are 1w/1d/1l in Premiership and 2w/1d/2l in all competitions. 

Ralph Hasenhüttl has 2 wins/1 draw/3 losses vs top 6 and 2 wins/1 loss(Man City) vs top 6 at home.

The market implied probability for Liverpool win is roughly 70% and this is certainly not the true historic probability.

Liverpool are not losing games due to good defence and GK, so this is why I like going for outright draw rather than some double chance.

Edited April 5, 2019 by vicsuna

[Val Ngoma]

Southampton VS Liverpool 

i predict on ball possession  Liverpool handicap-23 @1.60 with1XBET

i predict on total shots over 23.5 @2.056 with 1XBET

The two teams with entirely different ambitions in the season face each other at St. Mary’s Stadium tonight . The Saints are eager to avoid relegation to the Championship and, no doubt, a hard fought 1-0 win over Brighton gave them a confidence boost. The Reds, on the other hand, aim to stay in the race for the title and we predict that the visitors are going to stick to their attacking style of play. 

Both sides are likely to go for a win tonight , but seeing that the relegation strugglers have been struggling at the back in the 2018/2019 season, away win should be considered. Seeing that Mohamed Salah has been struggling to find his best form in the second half of the season, a man to watch  in the away team will be Sadio Mane, who is likely to pose a big threat for his former teammates. Anyway I’m positive Liverpool will control the game .. 

 

Edited April 5, 2019 by Val Ngoma

[betcatalog]

However, we will be supporting Leicester, which has been in excellent condition since Breden Rogers took over, and is currently being tested at the headquarters of the Huddersfield
HUDDERSFIELD TOWN vs LEICESTER CITY @@ LEICESTER CITY, odds 1.75

[Tiffy]

5 hours ago, betcatalog said:

However, we will be supporting Leicester, which has been in excellent condition since Breden Rogers took over, and is currently being tested at the headquarters of the Huddersfield
HUDDERSFIELD TOWN vs LEICESTER CITY @@ LEICESTER CITY, odds 1.75

On paper, it looks like an away win here, I agree. But there is always danger once a team has been relegated, and the pressure is suddenly off. It's not a game I will be touching, and will be interesting to see how Huddersfield perform here.

Good luck

[Hitch]

Bournemouth vs. Burnley

I feel like Bournemouth are slightly underrated in this match. While both teams aren't in the best of form, Bournemouth's home form is completely different from their away form. As for Burnley, they went on a great run of 5 wins and 3 draws but then they suffered 4 straight defeats before winning their last match against Wolves, which I feel is a factor in why the bookies might be overrating Burnley here but that win was at home, and while Wolves are great against the "Big Six", they actually have a very poor record against the bottom teams in the premier league.

• Bournemouth have lost just four matches at home all season - from Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City - and won 7 and drew 5.
• Only the "Big Six" and Wolves have a better xG at home than Bournemouth and they're are ranked 11th in xGA, whereas Burnley are ranked 15th in xG and 19th in xGA away from home so far this season.
• Burnley have won just three away matches all season; against Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Brighton, and have drawn 4 and lost 9.

My main concern is that Bournemouth might be lacking in motivation at the moment given their mid-table standing, whereas Burnley are fighting to avoid relegation and would love to get something out of this match before their six-pointer vs. Cardiff next week.

Having said that, I still think Bournemouth will be too strong for them at home. They could've easily won their recent two home matches against Wolves and Newcastle instead of drawing them; they missed an 85th-minute penalty in the former and conceded a 94th-minute goal in the latter and were the better team in both matches with a superior xG.

Bournemouth to win @ 2.14 with Betfair - 4 units

Edited April 6, 2019 by Hitch

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Arsenal conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 14 away matches in Premier League.
Arsenal have been undefeated in their last 6 matches in Premier League.
Everton have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 92 Football Betting Streaks for 07.04.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-07-04-2019-13974

[StevieDay1983]

Everton vs Arsenal

One of the tougher matches to call in the Premier League this weekend is the enticing clash between mid-table Everton and Champions League qualification chasing Arsenal in a 2:05pm kick-off at Goodison Park this Sunday. Naturally, I've decided to stick my nose into this one!

Everton are a bloody nightmare for punters this season. Generally, they've underwhelmed but just when you think you've worked them out they throw a spanner into the works. Marco Silva's side are 10th in the table but a season that appeared to be dying a slow death has been rejuvenated by back-to-back wins.

Arsenal have been a similar pain for those betting on their games. Just when you think they're running out of steam and the opposition has worked them out they bounce back to form. Unai Emery's men are 4th in the league table and could move up to 3rd and 3 points inside the top four.

The Toffees have regained their grit and determination after the victories against Chelsea and West Ham. The two clean sheets have given the defence a confidence boost they needed coming into a game against Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette. The issue is that they've only won 1 of their last 4 home matches.

The Gunners still struggle on the road. Emery's team have only picked up 5 wins in their 14 away matches and backing them for a win here seems a tall order. Injury concerns to Granit Xhaka and Laurent Koscielny plus the suspension of Lucas Torreira are worrying. My gut is backing a draw here but I wouldn't be surprised to see a home win either.

Draw @ 3.60 with Bet365

BTTS @ 1.60 with Betway

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Chelsea have scored 33% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
West Ham Utd have conceded 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 35 Football Betting Streaks for 08.04.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-08-04-2019-13986

[neilovan]

Monday night Chelsea v West Ham

Chelsea are in a weird state under Sarri. Hazard is probably on his way to Real Madrid, so how motivated will he be in the run-in?  Regardless of what happens at CHelsea he will play CL at Madrid. Maybe will get to carry Pogba as well 

Just do the basics and don't get injured before such a big, high profile move.  Who for Chelsea is going to carry the extra load?

Then add a West Ham team that has been poor on the road in recent weeks, into the mix. West Ham have lost 5 of their last 6 away, scoring just 1 goal. Is much going to change here ...  probably not.

I see a low scoring 1st half (0-0), and the home team just getting over the line here. The half time draw, CHelsea win is priced at 4 on bet365 and 4.61 on betfair.

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by neilovan

[StevieDay1983]

Chelsea vs West Ham

The Premier League action filters through into Monday night this week when Champions League chasing Chelsea welcome mid-table mediocrity West Ham to Stamford Bridge for this 8pm kick-off. Neither side has found consistency this season so there's a high degree of unpredictability surrounding this game.

Chelsea are 5th in the top flight but only outside the top four on goal difference. Maurizio Sarri's men can elevate themselves into the Champions League qualification spots with at least a point here but a win would see them move above Arsenal and Tottenham into 3rd place. Callum Hudson-Odoi is expected to start for a second game in a row and there could be returns for Willian, Gonzalo Higuain, and Ross Barkley.

West Ham could arguably be on the beach already with Manuel Pellegrini's side positioned in 11th place and unlikely to qualify for Europe or suffer a relegation dog fight. Felipe Anderson could make a return to the first team and it's looking likely that Ryan Fredericks and Samir Nasri could return to fitness.

It's officially 17 years since West Ham last took three points away from Stamford Bridge in the league. That being said, West Ham are unbeaten in this fixture in their last three meetings. However, this game does also come at a time when Chelsea are undefeated at home since the 1-0 loss to Leicester back on 22nd December, 2018.

There is no consistency for the Hammers at all right now. It's now six league matches on the road without a win for Pellegrini's side. Stamford Bridge is one of the last places you want to come when your away form is suffering. I can see a business-like win for Chelsea in an Eden Hazard inspired performance.

Chelsea HT/FT @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes

Chelsea -1 @ 1.80 with Bet365

[Rimmed]

Chelsea v Westham

lay chelsea 1.29 betfair 

Chelsea at those odds are not really backable. West ham have a full team out today and could easily cause an upset against a Chelsea side that is inconsistant. 

Arnie, hernandez, lanzini, anderson for ming a formiddle attack with Rice noble in holding positions. I can see West ham possibly getting something out of this match Good luck. 

[cluelessG]

3 minutes ago, Rimmed said:

Chelsea v Westham

lay chelsea 1.29 betfair 

Chelsea at those odds are not really backable. West ham have a full team out today and could easily cause an upset against a Chelsea side that is inconsistant. 

Arnie, hernandez, lanzini, anderson for ming a formiddle attack with Rice noble in holding positions. I can see West ham possibly getting something out of this match Good luck. 

It's a very tricky match. As you said - Lanzini, Anderson, Hernandez and Arnie could easily cause plenty of headaches for Chelsea. That's if Arnie can be bothered to play. Perhaps playing against Chelsea on a Monday night with a huge potential TV audience can give him some motivation.

On the other hand, I can't see the Hammers parking the bus today - none of the 4 players above can be relied upon for defensive duties. So West Ham may turn up with 4 players in attack and 7 players in defense and hardly anyone in midfield. And Chelsea can boss the midfield against most Premier League teams anyway. So West Ham somehow managed to get a scoreless draw against Chelsea at home but I don't see that repeating again today.

I will place a small bet on Both Teams Top Score (odds around evens) even though Chelsea are good at keeping clean sheets at home and West Ham are not prolific away at top teams (scored against early-season Arsenal but failed to do so at Liverpool and Man City).

There's definitely no value in the odds for home win though. I do think Chelsea will win but I'd rather take the "home win and BTTS" at odds around 3 with pinnacle.