Mindfulness

Was good to nick a profit in midweek after last Saturday's losses and given how tricky Tuesday night's can be as well. It is a big weekend in the FA Trophy for those who have joined me in backing Billericay and Leyton Orient and hopefully both will be in Monday's semi-final draw. I have 5 bets for Saturday.
Maidstone v Tranmere
I thought Tranmere were going to make a massive statement on Tuesday in beating top of the table Macclesfield. Instead it was the same old story in that they weren't clinical enough when they were dominating and they ended up losing 4-1. I think they need a minor miracle to win the title now, but given the National League this season nothing would surprise me. Anyway they certainly need to win this and they look a good bet to do so. Granted they have only won 4 away games all season and that hasn't helped their position, but on the other-hand they have only lost once in their last 7 away games. Mickey Mellon can't play for draws anymore and he will have to be positive here to go for the 3 points.That defeat on Saturday was also their first since New Years Day. Maidstone haven't won for 15 league matches now and they have only won 3 games at home all season. They lost at home to Barrow last Saturday and they hadn't won since December 23rd prior to that victory. The 5/4 about an away win with William Hill looks a big price to me.
Leamington v Blyth Spartans
Blyth had gone through a dip in form and I opposed them with Brackley who were in form a couple of weeks ago only for Blyth to win 3-0! Blyth have won their two games since by the same scoreline and they have really found their form again as they look to cement a place in the play-offs. Leamington are in a battle at the other end of the table. They have only won twice in their last 10 games, one of which was against Boston last week, but by all accounts it was a game low on quality. Blyth really should have enough to see off their hosts and 6/5 with Marathon looks a fair price to me.
Southport v Curzon
Kevin Davies has finally got his Southport side in good form and they are worth keeping an eye in regards to next season as they seem to be backing him well with cash. They have only lost twice in their last 8 games and they were to a FCUM side who rarely lose at home and a Kidderminster side who were on a long unbeaten run. I think they can pick up a 4th home league win on the bounce as they host the team one place below them in the table. Curzon had a superb result against York last week beating them 4-1, but I just wonder if they will be able to replicate that performance here especially as they have won just 3 away all season. Southport are building a decent looking side and Marathon's 21/20 is just the right side of value for me.
Hemel Hempstead v Havant & Waterlooville.
Hemel and St Albans were my two ante-post bets in the National League South this season and they have both been very frustrating. Every time it looks like they are going to play a part in the title battle they drop silly points as St Albans did last week. Hemel lost two games on the bounce including a 4-1 defeat to Oxford City, before blowing the lead 3 times against Chelmsford last weekend. That was obviously a better performance, but Havant are in 2nd and have 3 games in hand over Dartford at the top. As I have mentioned before their away form has been superb this season and reads won 10 drawn 2 and lost 2. They shouldn't be as big as 2/1 for this and that is well worth taking.
Barwell v Workington
I don't dip into the Evo-Stik Nothern Premier all that often, but this game appeals. The home side are in great form at the moment and are 8 games unbeaten now having won 5 of them, including a 2-0 win in the reverse fixture. Workington on the other-hand have lost their last 4 league games on the bounce and any hope of a play-off place seems to have gone now. The home side are 6/5 with Marathon and that looks a fair price to me given the form of these two sides at the moment.
Tranmere 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill
Blyth Spartans 2pts @ 6/5 with Marathon
Southport 2pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
Havant & Waterlooville 1pt @ 2/1 with Marathon
Barwell 1pt @ 6/5 with Marathon

245 Seggy
Bulkov 15/8 bet365 (from 9/4 at 5.45)
Going back to a novice hurdle for a change and I fancy Bulkov from the in form Micky Hammond yard. The 6yo had some very useful form France before coming here and was actually given a mark of 139 for his UK debut. Unfortunately never turned out that good but has won here and been second at the track (with todays rider on the latter). The overall form is better than his main rival Bal De Rio and i'll be surprised if he doesn't finish in front of that one, win or lose.

345 Taunton
Unison 9/2 PP
Looks decent value on his C/D win here 16 days ago, only 5lbs higher and could get an easy lead here. Enjoys soft ground and battles well and looks to have Our Merlin to beat for a decent midweek prize.

Chievo V Cagliari
X @ 3.2 Betfair
Chievo have had a rough time of it recently, the 1-0 stoppage time home defeat to Genoa added further insult to injury at the weekend. They now face a Cagliari side who have found their level in the lower mid-table zone this campaign.
Looking at the metrics we can see these sides are closely matched in a number of important areas. Cagliari have had the stronger backline thus far - it's an area where Chievo have really struggled this season. The home side can be thankful that RB Cacciatore returns for this match to help shore things up.
I'm prepared to overlook Chievo's poor form here as metrics suggest this game should be close. X seems to hold the most value in this situation.
 
Benevento V Crotone
X @ 3.2 Betfair
Benevento play the better football of the two but Crotone are stronger defensively and more pragmatic which is why they have a chance of surviving come the end of the season and Benevento don't.
Once again we see two teams that are very closely matched in some key areas when looking at the metrics. It's very hard to pick a winner from these two and the stats suggest neither side is really capable of running away with it.
X seems to be the logical play after running the numbers.
 
 
 

West Ham Utd V Watford
Watford +0.25 AH @ 1.85 Betvictor
West Ham have been in a difficult moment of late with a serious injury crisis and although players are starting to return I still feel this match with Watford will be a tricky one. Arnautovic, Lanzini and Carroll are still set to miss out for the home side and the first two players in that set are particularly crucial to the hammers fortunes. A 3-1 defeat at Brighton would not have lifted the mood in the camp and there is always a danger of West Ham's home support imploding in on the team when things are not going well.
Watford have also staggered of late but the 4-1 home victory to Chelsea should have lifted the mood and restored some confidence to Javi Gracia's side. The Hornets really do have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to attacking players and they can be a menace to any side in this division on their day. They are also strong away from home and that's another reason why I like them here, if West Ham push too hard for the win it will play to Watford's strengths.
Looking at the metrics and the EPL table we can see that these two sides are closely matched. However, I have Watford slightly ahead by most measures and do not see them having a disadvantage by being the away team here. ELO ratings also show attacking advantage has faded for West Ham in recent matches and this correlates with injuries to Arnautovic and Lanzini.
AH markets currently have West Ham 0 line around 1.75 and Watford 0 line around 2.25. In my view this should be the other way round with Watford slight favourites for the match all things considered. Because Watford had such a big win against Chelsea I am concerned this may move the markets and compromise value so I am not going to wait for more detailed team news and back Watford early here.
Will keep folks posted if there are further developments.
 
 
 

@Tiffy
No problem. As you said, very unpredictable game and I personally would want bigger price on Brighton all things considered.

Napoli V Lazio
Lazio +1.0 AH @ 1.78 Betvictor
I guess we're seeing a big price on the away team due to conflicting form but I am prepared to back Lazio here as I don't see a big difference between the two sides.
First off, Napoli have won 7 league games on the bounce and are making a serious charge for the scudetto. They're a fantastic team and will surely finish above Lazio come the end of the season. Despite this, I expect Maurizio Sarri's team to be given a stern test this weekend in what should be the tie of the round.
Lazio have staggered recently by losing their last 2 league games. Coach Simone Inzaghi said his team were a little fatigued at the weekend in the home defeat to Genoa. Inzaghi did not field a full-strength team in that game with Milinkovic-Savic and Lulic both absent and Felipe Anderson struggling for match fitness. I expect Milinkovic-Savic and Lulic to return to the starting eleven V Napoli which will make Lazio a lot more competitive.
Looking at the metrics in detail we can see that Lazio outperform Napoli in a couple of key areas. Essentially, both teams create a lot of chances but Lazio actually have the better conversion rate. ELO ratings also suggest game is very balanced so I do not believe such a big price for Lazio is justified here.
Lazio on +1 asian line gives us decent cover in a game that should be more competitive than the markets suggest. Value on away team is too big to ignore in my view.

Crotone V Atalanta
Atalanta -0.25 AH @ 1.72 Betvictor
As I said a couple of weeks back, Crotone had a good transfer window with the additions they've made to their squad. It's starting to show on the pitch as Walter Zenga's side are now unbeaten in 3, a run of results which includes a very respectable draw at Inter Milan.
My view is that it will be tough for Crotone to keep the unbeaten run going here against an Atalanta team which is performing well. Gian Piero Gasperini's side had a number of issues to contend with heading into the game with Chievo at the weekend but they still managed to emerge victorious. Atalanta have had some tough fixtures recently but they still gave a good account of themselves and they may just have too much for a plucky Crotone in this situation.
Looking at the metrics, Atalanta are clearly ahead in almost all areas compared to Crotone and I would expect the Nerazzurri to dominate the play despite being away from home. ELO ratings are also very favourable to Atalanta here which is encouraging. I would say Atalanta should be priced between 1.70 and 1.80 for this game but the markets are giving us 2.00 at the time of writing this which seems generous.
I will take the away side on -0.25 line here for some extra cover but taking Atalanta outright is also acceptable @ EVS or above imo.

Napoli V Lazio
Lazio +1.0 AH @ 1.78 Betvictor
I guess we're seeing a big price on the away team due to conflicting form but I am prepared to back Lazio here as I don't see a big difference between the two sides.
First off, Napoli have won 7 league games on the bounce and are making a serious charge for the scudetto. They're a fantastic team and will surely finish above Lazio come the end of the season. Despite this, I expect Maurizio Sarri's team to be given a stern test this weekend in what should be the tie of the round.
Lazio have staggered recently by losing their last 2 league games. Coach Simone Inzaghi said his team were a little fatigued at the weekend in the home defeat to Genoa. Inzaghi did not field a full-strength team in that game with Milinkovic-Savic and Lulic both absent and Felipe Anderson struggling for match fitness. I expect Milinkovic-Savic and Lulic to return to the starting eleven V Napoli which will make Lazio a lot more competitive.
Looking at the metrics in detail we can see that Lazio outperform Napoli in a couple of key areas. Essentially, both teams create a lot of chances but Lazio actually have the better conversion rate. ELO ratings also suggest game is very balanced so I do not believe such a big price for Lazio is justified here.
Lazio on +1 asian line gives us decent cover in a game that should be more competitive than the markets suggest. Value on away team is too big to ignore in my view.

West Ham Utd V Watford
Watford +0.25 AH @ 1.85 Betvictor
West Ham have been in a difficult moment of late with a serious injury crisis and although players are starting to return I still feel this match with Watford will be a tricky one. Arnautovic, Lanzini and Carroll are still set to miss out for the home side and the first two players in that set are particularly crucial to the hammers fortunes. A 3-1 defeat at Brighton would not have lifted the mood in the camp and there is always a danger of West Ham's home support imploding in on the team when things are not going well.
Watford have also staggered of late but the 4-1 home victory to Chelsea should have lifted the mood and restored some confidence to Javi Gracia's side. The Hornets really do have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to attacking players and they can be a menace to any side in this division on their day. They are also strong away from home and that's another reason why I like them here, if West Ham push too hard for the win it will play to Watford's strengths.
Looking at the metrics and the EPL table we can see that these two sides are closely matched. However, I have Watford slightly ahead by most measures and do not see them having a disadvantage by being the away team here. ELO ratings also show attacking advantage has faded for West Ham in recent matches and this correlates with injuries to Arnautovic and Lanzini.
AH markets currently have West Ham 0 line around 1.75 and Watford 0 line around 2.25. In my view this should be the other way round with Watford slight favourites for the match all things considered. Because Watford had such a big win against Chelsea I am concerned this may move the markets and compromise value so I am not going to wait for more detailed team news and back Watford early here.
Will keep folks posted if there are further developments.
 
 
 

@Kengur2017 to Punters Lounge.
I don't know if this will be useful to you or not but I have written down some things that are important to bear in mind if you want to take betting seriously:
 
Psychology
 
 
First of all, if you do not have the correct mentality then you will not be able to develop into a professional bettor.
‘Tilt’ or ‘Gambling rage’ is one of the first major obstacles that needs to be overcome if you are serious about betting. Tilt is a term usually associated with poker but it can apply to any form of betting:
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilt_(poker)
 
Tilt affects all people to some degree, some only suffer from it mildly and can completely eliminate it with a combination of changes to lifestyle and perspective. At the other end of the scale you have chronically impatient degenerates with no self discipline or perspective, the affects gambling has on these people can be highly destructive.   
 
Ask yourself: “Do I have self discipline? Can I take a loss or a string of losses and still retain my composure? Do I react to losses by making rash or impulsive bets?”.
 
Patience and self discipline are key factors if you wish to become a professional bettor. In my view any professional bettor does not see his or her line of work as a get rich quick scheme. Unless you luck out with some kind of crazy accumulator or long odds punt it will take time to build your bankroll.
 
Hurrying to reach the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow can be a toxic mentality. It’s great to visualise a better future for yourself and creating a plan to achieve that but wanting something and wanting it right now will not aid your quest.
 
Do you enjoy the process of becoming a professional bettor? If you really do not enjoy the process at all then why are you devoting your time and energy to it in the first place? Obviously the goal is to make money but you shouldn’t try to make money from something you really don’t like as it will inevitably compromise your ability to execute the process effectively.
 
You have to enjoy the process of getting there and you have to enjoy the process of learning. Never think you know it all, because believe me no-one does. The road to becoming a professional bettor is a constant process of learning and improving, the path is not smooth and chances are there will be setbacks.
 
If and when setbacks occur can you maintain your self discipline and motivation?
 
 
Bankroll Management
 
 
Obviously your betting bankroll needs to be completely segregated from all your other forms of expenditure. Your ability to pay the bills cannot be dependent on how well your betting career is doing – especially if you have a family.
 
Set aside only what you can afford to loose as your initial betting bankroll, then understand and accept that it cannot be used for anything other than betting.
 
Even if you have only set aside a relatively small amount of money for your initial bankroll you must still treat that money with respect. If you want to take betting seriously then a bet must never seem frivolous.
 
One of the first objectives of any serious bettor is to never go broke (loose their entire betting bankroll). The partitioning of your bankroll into individual bets must be sustainable.
 
A sensible way to grow your bankroll over the long term is through compounding:
 
http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/corporate-finance/3/discounted-cash-flow/compounding.aspx
 
Partition your results over quarterly or annual periods then incorporate the profits from the latest period into your staking structure.
 
For example:
 
You have an initial bankroll of $5000 which is divided into 40 individual fixed stake bets of $125 (2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 1 you make a profit of $1000 so total bankroll is now $6000.
 
Year 2 - Your fixed stake bet would be $150 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 2 you make a profit of $1200 – total bankroll now $7200.
 
Year 3 - Fixed stake would be $180 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)… and so on and so on.
 
By using compounding you can exponentially grow your bankroll in a safe and sustainable way. It will require patience and discipline, especially to begin with, but if you are consistently profitable then I would advocate it as a good way to grow your bankroll.
 
Sustainability
 
 
 
 
When it comes to sustainability as a career, one of the main questions is “Where can I get my bets on?”. Bookmakers are no fools, if you are a consistently profitable bettor then sooner or later you will get limited or banned – nothing you can do as it’s in the terms and conditions you agree to in order to bet with them.
 
One way to negate this problem is to have accounts with lots of different bookmakers and rotate your bets. It’s generally a good idea to have accounts with different bookmakers as you want to take advantage of different offers and prices etc. Despite this, rotating your bets with different vendors could still be problematic in the long term if you are consistently profitable.
 
 
Betting exchanges is the way to go if you don’t want to get banned or limited. On an exchange you’re betting against other bettors with the exchange operating as the middle man who matches up both sides of a bet. The exchange makes its money from charging commission for each bet made, usually between 2-5% (very reasonable in my opinion).
 
The main problems you will face with an exchange are:
 
Does it have the market you wish to bet on?
 
Does the market you wish to bet on have enough liquidity to get your bet matched?
 
Your access to betting exchanges will vary depending on what country you live in. Some of the main ones are:
 
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/
 
https://www.matchbook.com/
 
https://www.pinnacle.com/
 
https://www.sbobet.com/
 
https://smarkets.com/
 
If you’re not sure on who to bet with then ask around on this forum and check bookmaker review sites. Always do your research on the various operators and keep appraised of how they’re progressing. If you want betting to become your business then you have a responsibility to follow the industry at large and pay attention to new developments.
 
Never leave excess money in an online account for longer than you have to. Your bank should be the safest place to store the core of your funds – distribute them to the various exchanges and bookmakers only when necessary. This will help minimise your exposure if an operator goes bust or they inexplicably transfer your funds to bongo bongo land.
 
 
Methodology
 
 
 
From reading your post I suspect this is the area you wish to learn most about. Personally I have no special system to offer you, no low risk to high reward strategy, no promises of gold and jewels untold.
 
The phrase ‘There’s a million ways to make a million dollars’ also applies to betting. The various methods and strategies you could adopt to become consistently profitable from betting are too varied and too numerous to catalogue in a single post.  
 
Ultimately betting is about finding errors in the pricing of an event. If you believe a market has priced something incorrectly you can take advantage of it. Generally speaking, sports betting markets are not stupid. They evaluate outcomes with efficiency but this does not mean they never make mistakes. Your job is to capitalise on those mistakes at every opportunity. This requires diligence and dedication, you must always be on the lookout for opportunities in the market.
 
The more knowledge you have on a sport / subject, the more you can spot the opportunities in the market when they present themselves.
 
Specialising in a particular sport will help you, it should be a sport that you like watching and can watch regularly in order to gain qualitative information:
 
https://www.simplypsychology.org/qualitative-quantitative.html
 
Preferably it will be a sports market which is covered by the betting exchanges with enough liquidity to match your bets.
 
Personally I believe it’s important to develop your own betting strategies rather than follow or rely on other peoples. What if you are following someone else’s betting strategy but you do not really understand it and that person then disappears? You probably wouldn’t have learnt much and would be back at square one. Someone may very well come along on this thread and say “Hey Kengur, I have a great betting system that you might want to follow” and it might indeed be a good system but if you can’t fathom what’s behind it then you’re not really going to advance as a bettor. If you want to be ‘professional’ at something you have to be independent and generate your own ideas. Never rely on others to spoon feed you as it’s not sustainable over the long term.
 
Punters Lounge is a great site in my opinion – use it. I have learnt a lot from seeing how other people do things over the years on here, there’s lots of useful information on these boards. Just don’t expect anyone to wave a magic wand and make you rich overnight – the world seldom works like that.

West Ham Utd V Watford
Watford +0.25 AH @ 1.85 Betvictor
West Ham have been in a difficult moment of late with a serious injury crisis and although players are starting to return I still feel this match with Watford will be a tricky one. Arnautovic, Lanzini and Carroll are still set to miss out for the home side and the first two players in that set are particularly crucial to the hammers fortunes. A 3-1 defeat at Brighton would not have lifted the mood in the camp and there is always a danger of West Ham's home support imploding in on the team when things are not going well.
Watford have also staggered of late but the 4-1 home victory to Chelsea should have lifted the mood and restored some confidence to Javi Gracia's side. The Hornets really do have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to attacking players and they can be a menace to any side in this division on their day. They are also strong away from home and that's another reason why I like them here, if West Ham push too hard for the win it will play to Watford's strengths.
Looking at the metrics and the EPL table we can see that these two sides are closely matched. However, I have Watford slightly ahead by most measures and do not see them having a disadvantage by being the away team here. ELO ratings also show attacking advantage has faded for West Ham in recent matches and this correlates with injuries to Arnautovic and Lanzini.
AH markets currently have West Ham 0 line around 1.75 and Watford 0 line around 2.25. In my view this should be the other way round with Watford slight favourites for the match all things considered. Because Watford had such a big win against Chelsea I am concerned this may move the markets and compromise value so I am not going to wait for more detailed team news and back Watford early here.
Will keep folks posted if there are further developments.
 
 
 

I don't know but I'm writing to both the club and his agent to complain.

Juventus V Sassuolo
Sassuolo +2.0 AH @ 1.676 Matchbook
Much like Atalanta, Juventus are a bit worse for wear after their Coppa Italia match. Allegri's side are facing a mini injury crisis heading into this game with Dybala, Cuadrado and Douglas Costa all out of action (19 goals and 12 assists between them so far this campaign). Should also be noted that Bernardeschi makes the squad but is not in the best condition with a slight knock.
Sassuolo had a good transfer window with no major players leaving apart from the somewhat ineffective Falcinelli who has been replaced by the more dynamic Babacar. I like Beppe Iachini as a coach and I think with the squad they have, Sassuolo can improve in the second half of the campaign. Sassuolo are actually better on the road than they are at home which is another reason why I think they are slightly long in this situation.
Despite the absences you would still expect Juventus to get the job done here but it may not be as easy as the markets suggest. Sassuolo are priced too big in my view so I will back them on the +2 asian line here, more adventurous punters may go for the +1.75 line.
On a side note, I expect Sassuolo to be vulnerable to headed attempts and set-pieces in this game so Mario Mandzukic anytime goalscorer @ 2.5 could be worth a punt at low stakes.

Well played @StevieDay1983
I should have taken Sassuolo on the +8 asian line!!!
Juventus score 7 and Mandzukic doesn't get on the scoresheet:

So it was a profitable end to January on Tuesday night and hopefully the final 3 months of the season will go as well as the season has so far. As for Saturday its quite a busy day tips wise as 7 teams appeal throughout the leagues and the FA Trophy
Brackley v Sutton
I am going to start in the FA Trophy and I like the home side here to cause a bit of an upset. I opposed Sutton in the previous round, but they had enough to beat Hendon who as it turns out have entered a bit of a downturn in form. The same can't be said for Brackley who are unbeaten in their last 8 league games. That includes a superb win over Salford last weekend where they ran out deserved winners. Given the strength of Salford's squad would probably see them in the top half of the National League that win should give them plenty of confidence ahead of this game. All of Sutton's main contenders for the title our out of this already and the longer they remain in the competition the less likely it is they will win the title in my view. I know some teams in the past have combined both, but some of them had kind draws and Lincoln were just unstoppable last season. Marathon go 5/2 about a home win and although I would still make Sutton favourites I think that price is too big.
Whilst I am talking about the FA Trophy I do think Leyton Orient are a big price this weekend to win at Dover. I won't be backing it myself or tipping them up as such because I am on them to win the Trophy, but I certainly wouldn't put anyone off getting involved if you aren't on them in the outright market.
Southport v AFC Telford
I have lost count of the amount of players Kevin Davies has bought in since he took over as Southport manager and he has finally started to see some positive results. There is clearly a bit of money at the club as they have actually purchased some of their players. Now last week they weren't great at Kidderminster, but to be fair they are looking in red hot form at the moment and Southport's improved form has mostly come at home where they have won their last 3 games. Telford have only picked up 1 away point in their last 6 matches on their travels although I should add they have played Brackley, Salford, Kidderminster and Harrogate in their last 4 away games. This in theory should be an easier game, but I think their overall form of just one win in ten says a fair bit. With Southport's improved form at home I think they are just about value at 113/100 with Marathon although I wouldn't chase the price down too much.
Concord v Oxford City
Concord won for us last week and I am happy to back them again against an Oxford side who are struggling for form. That win obviously continued Concord's superb run of form which sees them 5 in the last 10 games form table and that is only on goal difference as they have the same amount of points Dartford have. Oxford had improved for a while, but their record now reads just one win in their last 6. They have lost their last 2 away games including at an East Thurrock side who aren't exactly in great form in the league at the moment. I think Marathon's 123/100 is on the big side about a home win.
Eastbourne v Hungerford
This will come as no surprise to regular readers that I am taking on Eastbourne yet again. Although it was only a 2-1 defeat in the end at Concord last week they were never really in the game. Hungerford are in decent enough form at the moment having lost just two of their last 8 league games and that includes a 2-1 over title chasing Hemel. Since Eastbourne beat Gloucester I have opposed them in 7 of their 8 matches and have collected on 5 occasions and I see no reason why it won't continue to be a profitable angle. Marathon are best about an away win at 37/20. 
Whitehawk v Weston-Super-Mare
I have to back Whitehawk again. They ended up losing 3-1 at Dartford last week, but they performed really well and were probably a little unlucky not to have picked up a point. The bookies are naturally just looking at their league position and not the fact their performances have really improved in the last 6 weeks or so. Granted Weston are in strong form themselves so this is hardly a mortgage job, but I can't make the home side 100/30 shots (Bet365/Betfred) and I am happy to take a punt they can pull off another victory.
Bishops Stortford v St Ives
St Ives were unbeaten in 5 prior to their 4-0 loss against Chesham on Tuesday night and I think they look a big price to win at Bishops Stortford on Saturday. Strangely enough the home sides last game was also against Chesham last Saturday. They lost 2-1 and were a goal up, but they had the wind in their favour in the 1st half when they went 1 up and in the 2nd half they were very much 2nd best. It means they have only picked up 2 points in their last 5 games. St Ives have actually won more games on their travels this season and I don't think there is anywhere near as much between the two sides as the betting suggests, indeed take Tuesday's loss away and you would say St Ives are in better form. Bet365 are 11/4 about an away win.
St Neots v Chesham
Finally we got to Chesham whose only defeat in their last 10 games came against Hereford. They have won 6 on the bounce scoring 19 and conceding just 4. I see no reason why that run wont continue at the weekend as their hosts are hardly in good form. Granted they did get a 95th minute winner to beat Dunstable last weekend, but they only have 12 points and that was their first win in 6. This will be a much tougher tie and I would make Chesham odds on shots to win this so the 101/100 with Marathon looks appealing.
Brackley 1pt @ 5/2 with Marathon
Southport 1pt @ 113/100 with Marathon
Concord 2pts at 123/100 with Marathon
Hungerford 2.5pts at 37/20 with Marathon
Whitehawk 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365/Betfred
St Ives 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365
Chesham 3pts @ 101/100 with Marathon

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11670/11232883/pierre-emerick-aubameyang-may-have-to-wait-for-arsenal-debut
 

The midweek card was great but this looks a lot more difficult on first viewing. I'm struggling to shortlist games here and you know you're in trouble when that happens. Some cards you just have to sit back and let it all play out and that might not be a bad idea this weekend, let the dust settle after that wretched transfer window.
Will post again if I find anything but not really expecting to with this pile of dross.
@andrewcalo Swansea have a fighting chance of staying in the division now, despite the naysayers. Are you able to conjure up any bets from leftfield on this card?
@Tiffy Don't slag off Glenn!
 

A good day on Saturday to continue what has been a pretty good month on the whole. Hopefully it will end just as well as it started and I have 4 aways for Tuesday night.
Gateshead v Wrexham
I am rather surprised that Wrexham are such a big price for this game. Gateshead were on my shortlist for Saturday until I noticed their dreadful home form of late. Now they did end up winning and with 10 men, but then Maidstone are hardly in the greatest of form at the moment. Wrexham on the other hand have only lost 2 of their last 10 league games and are still right there in the promotion picture. They were part of a cracking 2-2 draw against Tranmere on Saturday and as long as their isn't a hangover from that they should really be winning this. I am amazed they are as big as 121/50 as I would make them favourites for the game as I think they have a class edge on their hosts.
Halifax v Leyton Orient
I put Orient up to win this game whilst I was away and the game was called off. Nothing has changed for me since then and I still think Oreint look a good bet at 17/10 with Betway/Bet365.
Hendon v Leatherhead
Since their improved league form Leatherhead have also improved their away form. They did lose their last game against Thurrock which was on their travels, but they had a busy month up until that game and maybe that had something to do with it. Their game on Saturday was called off which should help them as they have had 10 days off now which is probably what they needed. Hendon are only 4 points in front of them in the table and although they did come back from 3 down on Saturday to get a 3-3 draw with Folkestone they are on a little bit of a wobble at the moment. I would still make them favs for the game, but no way should Leatherhead be as big as 15/4. I would have them around the 2/1 mark myself and they have a good chance of picking up another 3 points here.
Tiverton v Frome
Tiverton are in awful form at the moment having picked up 2 wins in their last 8 games. Those wins were against Farnbourgh and bottom side Gosport so they don't say a great deal and they have lost their other 6 including a 6-2 defeat against Basingstoke on Saturday. Frome are in much better form having lost just one of their last 6 games and they have only lost 4 games on their travels this season. Granted Tiverton have only lost 3 home games, but crucially for me 2 of those 3 have come in their last 2 home matches. I think 7/4 with Betway on an away win is value.
Wrexham 2pts @ 121/50 with Marathon
Leyton Orient 2pts @ 17/10 with Betway/Bet 365
Leatherhead 1pt @ 15/4 with BetVictor
Frome 1pt @ 7/4 with Betway

Crotone V Cagliari
X @ 3.2 Betfair
Crotone have made some interesting signings in the window thus far with the likes of CB Capuano, CM Benali and WFW Ricci. Walter Zenga's side have given themselves a fighting chance of avoiding second season syndrome and staying in the division once again which would be a huge achievement for a club of its size.
They face a Cagliari side which is currently one place above them in the table and on paper this should be a close match. Cagliari are facing a personnel crisis in the forward positions with Joao Pedro and Pavoletti out while midfielder Barella is also unavailable for this match. Cagliari's price may seem long on the surface but because of the present circumstances I believe making Crotone favourites is probably justified here.
Crotone are not prolific infront of goal with just 16 goals scored from 21 games and when you combine this with Cagliari's absences then this match could well be a hard fought, low scoring affair. I feel X has the most value in this situation rather than backing either team on AH lines.
 
Genoa V Udinese
X @ 3.2 Betfair
This is a strange game to analyse. Normally I would say Udinese are priced a bit long by the markets here but they do seem to be in a difficult moment. Genoa have less quality but performances have been good recently, they only lost by a single goal at Juventus last time out and we already know that Davide Ballardini's side is hard to beat.
If Udinese were in form and had both those first choice wing-backs playing then I would take them on +0.25 AH line at current price. As it is, I think Genoa away is a difficult fixture for an Udinese side which is not firing on all cylinders and perhaps comming away with all 3pts is a bit too much to ask here.
An interesting contest but the two sides may just cancel each other out so I will go with X here.

No bets for me so far but I will talk about a couple of games:
 
Lazio V Udinese
Initially I was looking at Udinese on + AH line here but this is perhaps the game where Massimo Oddo's good run will come to an end. A lot will depend on whether Ciro Immoblile is fit enough to start for Lazio, if not they may have to play a false 9 in the form of Anderson or Milinkovic-Savic. Metrics give Lazio around a goal advantage heading into this game while ELO gives them over a 2 goal advantage for last 2 games!
Udinese are also experiencing difficulty in the wing-back positions with Adnan and Widmer both doubts while CM Behrami is injured. I feel Behrami is really important for this type of match as Lazio may find it easier to overwhelm Udinese's midfield without him.
A difficult game to call with so many question marks over who's going to play. My advice would be to wait for the starting lineups and look at the prices then.
 
Sampdoria V Roma
Metrics favour Sampdoria here but that is not the whole story. Much depends on which players are available for the respective managers. Will Dzeko and Perotti start for Roma? Will Quagliarella start for Samp? A lot hinges on these guys.
Despite being in a difficult moment, Roma do have certain characteristics which can trouble Samp here. Sampdoria play an aggressive attacking style which is highly entertaining but can sometimes look naive against a composed opponent who knows how to counter effectively. If Roma were at full strength and in-form then they could confound the metrics and cause the home side problems but this is far from certain as things stand.
As with the Lazio V Udinese match my advice here is to wait for the starting lineups and then see what the Sampdoria price is doing. Home team on +0.75 AH line would be my preference but Quagliarella must start and Roma need to be without Dzeko or Perotti, preferably both.
 

So finally back in the country although things have gone fairly well whilst I have been away. Pretty busy day tomorrow tips wise so hopefully there will be more profit to be had.
Dagenham v Solihull
I wasn't sure about Mark Yates coming in as Solihull manager, but to be fair to him he has done a very good job and he might just be able to keep them up. They have been in good form and are unbeaten in 4 league games now. They have only lost 3 of their last 10 games and all were by a goal to nil. Now all three did come away from home, but in their last two away games they have beaten Barrow and drew 0-0 at leaders Macclesfield. To me they have a chance of beating a Dagenham side who have only won once in their last 7 games and that was a 4-2 win over a badly out of form Hartlepool. I am happy to take a chance on an away win at 7/2.
Eastleigh v Hartlepool
Speaking of badly out of form Hartlepool they have to be taken on on Saturday at a shade of odds on with Marathon. Eastleigh did us a favour last week when they continued their good form against Maidstone and Hartlepool's winless run went to 9 after they only got a point at Chester on Tuesday night. Things aren't looking good off the field either with administration looking highly likely and a trip to a side who have only lost one of their last 10 isn't exactly what they need right now. I thought Eastleigh would be shorter than they are.
Woking v AFC Fylde
Having put Woking up to be relegated at the start of the season I had pretty much given up hope after their strong start, but I might be in with a chance of landing the bet because their form has taken a real nose dive. Like Hartlepool they haven't won in 9 and they face a Fylde side who are storming up the table so much that they might have an outside chance of the title. Since losing to Tranmere on Boxing Day they have been unbeaten in 7 of which they have won 6 including that 6-0 drubbing of Macclesfield last Saturday. I am amazed that odds against is available about an away win and they should pick up 3 more points. here.
Gainsborough v Alfreton
A new manager at Alfreton looks like it is going to bring an upturn in form. They have a good side and they shouldn't be doing as badly as they are and with Trinity in poor form at the moment it looks a good chance for the away side to build on last weeks good win.
Chelmsford v Hampton
Hampton's run of form is quite amazing really and although Chelmsford don't lose many at home, Hampton have lost just 3 games all season. I struggle to see how they can be put in as 9/4 shots for this as I think Hampton are the better side.
Concord v Eastbourne
Sadly the opposing of Eastbourne which had paid off so well of late didn't pay off last week, but I am keen to oppose them again this weekend. Concord's loss against Bath was their first in a long time in the league, which given their league position is pretty amazing. Granted they do like to draw plenty of games, but they look stronger than their rivals here and they look a good bet to bounce straight back.
Dartford v Whitehawk
I was kicking myself a little for not backing Whitehawk again last week after they ended up beating Truro to continue their improved form. I am even wondering if they might pull off the miracle and stay up. They go to top of the table Dartford this weekend and obviously that is going to be tough, but they shouldn't be 12/1 shots and I am happy to take a complete flyer and have a small bet on them.
Solihull 1pt @ 7/2 with Marathon
Eastleigh 4pts @ 19/20 with Marathon
AFC Fylde 3pts @ 51/50 with Marathon
Alfreton 1pt @ 73/50 with Marathon
Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365
Concord 3pts @ 23/20 with Ladbrokes/Coral
Whitehawk 0.5pts @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral

I still have some ideas for this round but as usual I need to wait for official squad announcements.

Chelsea V AFC Bournemouth
AFC Bournemouth +2.0 AH @ 1.7 Unibet
Markets are a bit generous with the Bournemouth price in my view. This will be Chelsea's 9th competitive game in the month of January. Antonio Conte's side will have averaged a game every 3.4 days which is pretty crazy when you think about it. Chelsea are a good side but their main strength is defence. Offensively speaking they are relative laggards compared to their big 6 piers and they do not strike fear into the hearts of opposition defences like Liverpool or City do.
So without doing any in-depth analysis I thought Bournemouth being available on +2 AH line was a bit strange here. After looking at the metrics in detail I would estimate that Bournemouth +1 AH line for this match should be around 2.4. At the time of writing this we're getting 3.4 in a couple of places which seems big.
Obviously this game is a long way out so the risk is a lot can happen between now and this fixture. Maybe Chelsea will make some attacking aquisitions in the window between now and then but even so Bournemouth price is just too big to ignore given the present circumstances imo.
 
 

Chelsea V AFC Bournemouth
AFC Bournemouth +2.0 AH @ 1.7 Unibet
Markets are a bit generous with the Bournemouth price in my view. This will be Chelsea's 9th competitive game in the month of January. Antonio Conte's side will have averaged a game every 3.4 days which is pretty crazy when you think about it. Chelsea are a good side but their main strength is defence. Offensively speaking they are relative laggards compared to their big 6 piers and they do not strike fear into the hearts of opposition defences like Liverpool or City do.
So without doing any in-depth analysis I thought Bournemouth being available on +2 AH line was a bit strange here. After looking at the metrics in detail I would estimate that Bournemouth +1 AH line for this match should be around 2.4. At the time of writing this we're getting 3.4 in a couple of places which seems big.
Obviously this game is a long way out so the risk is a lot can happen between now and this fixture. Maybe Chelsea will make some attacking aquisitions in the window between now and then but even so Bournemouth price is just too big to ignore given the present circumstances imo.