Mindfulness

A few games at step 3 this mid-week and a home double in the Evo-Stik Southern Premier South makes some appeal.
Chesham have been really poor so far this season having won just once and drawn just once so far this season. The win against Farnborough was two games ago, but in three out of their last 4 league games they have conceded 4 goals each time including on Saturday when Salisbury put 4 past them. They go to Beaconsfield who have only lost twice so far this term and although they have yet to win at home in 4 league games this looks the perfect game to get their first home 3 points of the season.
Walton Casuals is the other bet and they host Staines. Casuals didn't win any of their first 5 league games, but they have won 3 of their next 5 and are looking in much better shape now. Crucially they host a Staines side who are looking in desperate trouble. They have won just twice in the league (one of which was against Chesham) and have lost their other 8. In their last 4 league games they have conceded a huge 18 goals. Also these two sides played each other in the league cup earlier in the month and Casuals won 6-1 that night. It is hard to see how Staines are going to turn that around given how they have played since and are conceding goals for fun. 
Now Oddschecker isn't playing ball with this league so I have only checked 3 firms and Bet365 and Betfred were joint best of those 3 with odds of 1.7/1 on the double. I am having a point on that.

Good to have a really good Saturday last weekend with 3 of the 4 National League bets landing. Didn't have as much fortune on the FA Cup front but the next round should bring plenty of opportunities on that front next weekend. This Saturday it is Non-League Day and I urge anyone reading this who can go to a game at the weekend to go and do so especially if you haven't been to watch your local team before. I will be watching Billericay v Gloucester and as much as I fully expect my team to lose I am really interested to see Billericay in action especially from an ante-post perspective as I am sure a few of you have got some fancy prices about them. Hopefully it will be a profitable Non-League Day and I have five bets.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham (National League)
Surely Peter Taylor won't be in the Dagenham hot-seat for too much longer. They had a 4 game unbeaten spell, but apart from that have looked every bit relegation candidates and I don't see Taylor bringing about any improvement and he is the wrong man for the job. Wrexham on the other-hand have their eyes firmly on promotion although I suspect that will be via the play-offs rather than winning the title. Their only defeat in their last 8 games was when I put them up to beat Sutton, but that looks every bit the one off I thought it would be and Dagenham are no Sutton. Skybet are even money if you can get on although the shade of odds on elsewhere is acceptable as well.
Eastleigh v Aldershot (National League)
Slightly risky to want to back a team who have only picked up one point on their travels this season playing against a team who have won 4 on the bounce and are unbeaten in 6, but I think Aldershot are worth backing here. As I highlighted last week Aldershot are an improving side and they dispatched Halifax without too many worries last weekend. I am hoping that they can continue that on their travels and the fact they got a draw at Hartlepool two weeks ago gives me confidence that they can. Eastleigh lost their manager in the week and it might just upset their good run of form. This could be the perfect time to be playing them and the Aldershot players should be full of confidence at the moment. The 61/25 about an away with Marathon is way too big for me.
Halifax v Chesterfield (National League)
Yes I am going to oppose Chesterfield again in the live TV game on BT Sport at Saturday teatime. Yet again they are short price favourites away from home and although we didn't get a result in Chesterfield's last two games as they have drawn them they are a stupid price yet again. Now granted Halifax aren't exactly winning football matches either at the moment, but at home only Hartlepool have beaten them so far this term. Either side of that defeat they have drawn against Leyton Orient and AFC Fylde. It has been 8 games since a win, but they have drawn 5 of them. The two 3-0 defeats have both come on their travels and as pointed out above Aldershot are improving fast. Chesterfield have scored just 3 times in their last 10 games which is pretty shocking really and given Halifax have only scored 7 in that time we could be looking at a pretty dull affair (a bit like most of the games BT have chosen this season as they have made some shocking choices), but Halifax are good value 9/4 with Bet 365 to win the game. Some people might want the draw onside, but I think having a small bet on the no goalscorer at 15/2 (Bet 365) and on 1-1 at 11/2 (Betway and BetVictor) is the best way to cover the win bet and if Halifax win 1-0 via an own goal we have hit the jackpot!
Solihull v Ebbsfleet (National League)
Opposing Ebbsfleet got us a nice profit last weekend and although their away form is better than their home form I am more than happy to take them on again. They have only lost one on their travels, but that came in a heavy 4-1 defeat at Wrexham. Prior to that they had drawn at Dover which sums up their level at the moment. They did beat Dagenham in their last away game, but again that hardly says a lot and this match should be much tougher. Ebbsfleet were poor at home to Harrogate last Saturday and they again continue to look a fair way of the pace. Solihull weren't great themselves last weekend when losing 2-0 at Barnet, but their away performances haven't been as good as their home ones. So far in 7 home games they have conceded just 3 times and lost just the once to Hartlepool. I have put them up in both their last two home victories and I think they can land a 3rd home win on the bounce. 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred looks a big price to me as I would make it an odds on shot.
Chippenham v Dartford (National League South)
As I have mentioned before Dartford look a million miles away from the team who nearly won the league last season, yet they are still being priced up as if they are. They did manage a 1-1 draw against Billericay in their last league away game, but they have lost 3 of their other 5 without scoring a goal and were hammered 4-1 at Oxford City in the FA Cup last Saturday. Again Chippenham are a side who I have written about in recent weeks and although they cost me the FA Cup acca a couple of weeks ago they have been playing well otherwise. They beat Hendon in the FA Cup easily in the week and at home they have won 4 out of five in the league including beating Billericay. Chippenham should be favourites for this and it is crazy that they aren't. BetVictor's 9/5 is a very attractive price.
Wrexham 2.5pts @ Evs with Skybet
Aldershot 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon
Halifax 1pt at 9/4 with Bet365 No goalscorer 0.5pts @ 15/2 with Bet365 and 1-1 @ 11/2 with Betway and BetVictor
Solihull 3pts @ 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred
Chippenham 1pt @ 9/5 with BetVictor

Burnley V Huddersfield Town
X @ 3.2 Betfred
Huddersfield performances have been good in recent matches but they do have problems converting chances. Burnley have bounced back after their early season slump and will look to push on here but I feel Huddersfield could make things difficult for Sean Dyche's side. When Huddersfield are able to start their first choice midfield 3 of Hogg, Mooy and Billing they are a tough nut to crack.
Burnley are rightly favourites for this match but I don't think 2.2 offers much value when facing a stubborn opponent whose recent performances have been better than their results suggest. Huddersfield +0.50 AH at odds on does not really appeal either as they will struggle to outscore Burnley here so I am not too keen on covering the away win.
ELO ratings are very close, I feel X is worth a punt in the 1X2 market as these two sides may just cancel each other out.

Burnley V Huddersfield Town
X @ 3.2 Betfred
Huddersfield performances have been good in recent matches but they do have problems converting chances. Burnley have bounced back after their early season slump and will look to push on here but I feel Huddersfield could make things difficult for Sean Dyche's side. When Huddersfield are able to start their first choice midfield 3 of Hogg, Mooy and Billing they are a tough nut to crack.
Burnley are rightly favourites for this match but I don't think 2.2 offers much value when facing a stubborn opponent whose recent performances have been better than their results suggest. Huddersfield +0.50 AH at odds on does not really appeal either as they will struggle to outscore Burnley here so I am not too keen on covering the away win.
ELO ratings are very close, I feel X is worth a punt in the 1X2 market as these two sides may just cancel each other out.

It is FA Cup weekend and yet again the bookies have been slow to price those matches up. Bet365 and BetVictor have so I will wait to see if we get any more prices before putting anything up. As it stands I have 4 bets in the National League for Saturday.
Aldershot v Halifax
On the face of it the home side probably look on the short side at 5/4 to win this, but I think they look a fair price to do just that. Gary Waddock hasn't minced his words at times this season, but not surprisingly he has been a bit more upbeat of late and he certainly was after Aldershot had got their first away point of the season at Hartlepool last Saturday. It was a good performance from them and Waddock was right to highlight the fact that the new squad are starting to improve and get things together. As I mentioned in the Maidstone preview last week Aldershot battered Maidstone but still lost in their last home game, but that was actually only their 2nd defeat at home this season and they have won 4 of their 6 home games. That is key for me that despite their poor start to the season that has been pretty much down to their away form rather than their pretty solid home form. Halifax have had some tough away games and draws at Sutton and Wrexham are good efforts, although that Sutton match was a dire game in general. Their only win on their travels remains the opening day win at bottom of the table Braintree and given they only managed 2 shots on target against Bromley they were slightly fortunate to get a point last weekend. I think this game is tougher and with Aldershot solid at home and performances improving I think they can continue their rise up the table here.
Chesterfield v AFC Fylde
The price on Fylde has come in from the silly opening quotes from the bookies which had them as the outsiders for this. The plus is they are unbeaten on the road, but the negative is that they have drawn 6 of their 7 away matches. Strangely given how strong they are going forward at home they can't score on their travels. They have only scored 5 times and 3 of those came in one game at Ebbsfleet. Surely in this game Dave Challinor has to make sure his side are a bit more attacking minded given Chesterfield are making some really poor defensive errors of late. I read a preview last weekend which suggested Chesterfield have defended OK of late, which is just bizarre because as I pointed out last weekend they have certainly not defended OK in recent matches. It has been a comedy of errors really and although they only conceded once against Maidstone it was a bad one to concede. Surely the likes of Danny Rowe are going to be gifted a few chances against a Chesterfield side who don't really look like winning anytime soon. 6/4 is still available with Skybet and Sportingbet and it is still a high enough price for me to want to play.
Dover v Salford
Another team who have shortened up are Salford which again isn't a surprise. Football can make fools of you sometimes, but I just don't see how Dover can get anything out of this game. They have looked a really poor side in most of their games this season and they were especially bad against Barrow last weekend. Maybe the players will raise themselves for this one, but even so they just don't look good enough and manager Chris Kinnear pretty much hinted at that after the game. Salford on the other-hand are threatening to run away with the league and some of the football they have been playing is some of the best I have seen in this division for a few years. They have just got stronger as the season has gone on and they comfortably beat Maidenhead 3-0 last weekend in what could have been a tricky game for them. As long as they don't drop their standards and get complacent they could really batter Dover this weekend. I think at the very least they should cover the -1 handicap and that is a big price at 12/5 (Betfair/Paddy Power) and looks the best bet in the division this weekend.
Ebbsfleet v Harrogate
There was a much improved performance from Ebbsfleet last Saturday, but it did come against Dagenham so how much do we read into it? I do think the signing of Reise Allassani who is a player I know well having been at Dulwich last season is a very good one and he was man of the match in the Dagenham game. The big problem for them though has been their home form and given they play a Harrogate side who aren't really showing any signs of slowing down after their flying start to the season I am happy to take Ebbsfleet on. Harrogate were the first team to defeat Boreham Wood at home last weekend and Wood are always hard to beat at home so that is no mean feat. Skybet and BetVictor are 2/1 about an away win and that is too big for me.
Aldershot 1pt @ 5/4 with BetVictor/William Hill
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 6/4 with Skybet/Sportingbet
Salford -1 2pts @ 12/5 with Betfair/Paddy Power
Harrogate 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet/BetVictor

Cagliari V Bologna
X @ 3.34 Marathonbet
It's difficult to see either side winning this encounter, both teams are on a similar level. Bologna lack creativity without CM Donsah and FW Palacio but they do flood the middle of the park and frustrate their opponents often. Bologna did get an important home win against Udinese at the weekend and the goals for Santander and Orsolini will give them confidence. Despite this I do not see Bologna being particularly threatening going forward. Infact, Cagliari and Bologna currently have the joint 2nd worst attack in the division.
As I've said before, Cagliari can be difficult opponents on their own turf. They will take the game to Bologna and will probably dominate the ball. One of Cagliari's main offensive weapons is attacking set-pieces, particularly with CF Pavoletti. The problem for them here is that Bologna are a big, physical team who can defend set-pieces and do well in ariel duels. Cagliari's main offensive threat could well be negated here.
To summarise, Bologna should have increased confidence going into this game but to win all 3pts in Sardinia is still a big ask for them. Cagliari will try to make the game but Bologna have the attributes to disrupt them effectively. I see an increased chance of stalemate here so I will go for X @ 3.34.
 

It's early days but I have already taken Sampdoria +1.0 AH @ 1.88 Bet365, the price just seems bizarre to me. The two teams are on a similar level, making Atalanta favourites because of home advantage is fair enough but the AH line for this game is really skewed in my view. Will update later in the week when we have more information.

Saturday was much better and pleasing to get a winning Nap at last with Biggleswade. Enfield did the business with ease and Solihull won with the last kick of the game. There isn't a huge amount of games this week, but I like the look of 3 teams all around the even money mark. Given I fancy them all the same strength I am going to just go with a point treble rather than the 3 singles although feel free to play them how you want.
The first team is Chester who host Hereford. Take away Chester's bizarre 8-1 defeat at Blyth and their 3-1 loss to Telford (came after two weeks off so they were rusty), then Chester have been mainly very good so far this season. Saturday they drew 0-0 with a Chorley side still flying at the top of the table and they now host a mangerless Hereford who have only picked up 1 point in their last 6 games. They did come from behind to beat Truro in the FA Cup, but then lost 3-0 to Spennymoor on Saturday. It is hard to see them getting much out of this match and they aren't in a great shape on the pitch at the moment. For some reason Chester are drifiting, but they should be odds on given how these two sides are playing at the moment.
The other two teams both come from the Evo-Stik Northern Premier. Grantham have won 4 of their last 5 and their only dropped points in that spell came when I tipped them up to beat North Ferriby and they blew a 2 goal lead! They have only lost once in the league so far this season and got a 90th minute winner against Whitby on Saturday. Hednesford aren't in great form at the moment having lost 3 of their last 4 and their only win coming against a poor Workington side.
Warrington look a solid bet to see off Mickleover Sports. Warrington went so well last season finishing in 3rd place and I wondered if they would be able to repeat that, but they went to the top of the table after beating ante-post favourites South Shields 3-0 on Saturday. That made it five wins on the bounce and their only defeat came on the opening day of the season. Mickleover's two wins this season have come against North Ferriby and Hednesford which pretty much sums up how good they are. The only danger for me is if Warrington allow their standards to drop after such a good win at the weekend, but they should win this and they should be shorter than a shade of odds on to do so.
The treble pays 6.8/1 with BetVictor.

Manchester Utd V Valencia
Valencia +1.0 AH @ 1.77 Betvictor
Utd are in a difficult moment with the team lacking confidence and a clear idea of how to play. I feel Mourinho has done too much tinkering with his tactics recently and players do not know whether they are comming or going. The Mourinho / Pogba saga has not helped either and right now Utd strike me as a club where it is hard for players to play themselves into form with so much chopping and changing.
Valenica have had a tepid start to their La Liga season with 1 win, 1 defeat and 5 draws!!! The win did come at the weekend away to Real Sociedad and I feel Valencia can start to get their season up and running. Their issues with injuries are starting to ease and head coach Marcelino could have an almost full strength squad to take to Utd. Valencia are compact, well drilled and very dangerous on the counter. Everyone knows their roll and they are more than capable of picking up results on the road due to their style of play.
To get Valencia on the +1AH line seems generous to me. It's fair to say that we have no idea what kind of Utd team will show up for this game but they are in a difficult moment and now face another tricky opponent. Valencia with a whole goal advantage looks to be the prudent move in my view.
 

Manchester Utd V Valencia
Valencia +1.0 AH @ 1.77 Betvictor
Utd are in a difficult moment with the team lacking confidence and a clear idea of how to play. I feel Mourinho has done too much tinkering with his tactics recently and players do not know whether they are comming or going. The Mourinho / Pogba saga has not helped either and right now Utd strike me as a club where it is hard for players to play themselves into form with so much chopping and changing.
Valenica have had a tepid start to their La Liga season with 1 win, 1 defeat and 5 draws!!! The win did come at the weekend away to Real Sociedad and I feel Valencia can start to get their season up and running. Their issues with injuries are starting to ease and head coach Marcelino could have an almost full strength squad to take to Utd. Valencia are compact, well drilled and very dangerous on the counter. Everyone knows their roll and they are more than capable of picking up results on the road due to their style of play.
To get Valencia on the +1AH line seems generous to me. It's fair to say that we have no idea what kind of Utd team will show up for this game but they are in a difficult moment and now face another tricky opponent. Valencia with a whole goal advantage looks to be the prudent move in my view.
 

Manchester Utd V Valencia
Valencia +1.0 AH @ 1.77 Betvictor
Utd are in a difficult moment with the team lacking confidence and a clear idea of how to play. I feel Mourinho has done too much tinkering with his tactics recently and players do not know whether they are comming or going. The Mourinho / Pogba saga has not helped either and right now Utd strike me as a club where it is hard for players to play themselves into form with so much chopping and changing.
Valenica have had a tepid start to their La Liga season with 1 win, 1 defeat and 5 draws!!! The win did come at the weekend away to Real Sociedad and I feel Valencia can start to get their season up and running. Their issues with injuries are starting to ease and head coach Marcelino could have an almost full strength squad to take to Utd. Valencia are compact, well drilled and very dangerous on the counter. Everyone knows their roll and they are more than capable of picking up results on the road due to their style of play.
To get Valencia on the +1AH line seems generous to me. It's fair to say that we have no idea what kind of Utd team will show up for this game but they are in a difficult moment and now face another tricky opponent. Valencia with a whole goal advantage looks to be the prudent move in my view.
 

I don't think I can be of much help with tonight's game mate, it is really unpredictable. Bournemouth will wreck you if you play a high defensive line or attack in a naive way - their home game to Leicester was a case in point.
You're right to highlight Palace's appauling chance conversion, it's been a problem for us for such a long time now. We are also poor at defending counter-attacks this season, maybe because our full-backs like to go on the offensive. Despite this, Palace tend to play in their own half and get the basics right, we currently have the 4th strongest defence in the league; largely due to the Tomkins - Sakho centre-back partnership.
No outcome would suprise me in tonight's game, hopefully Palace will just sit back and counter as Bournemouth do not like playing against said strategy. There's nothing in the 1x2 or totals prices that stands out for me so I will avoid betting on this game.

The artificial pitch at Livingston is the worst playing surface I've ever seen, it's virtually impossible to run with the ball at feet and some really weird bounces, it won't suit Rangers' ball players at all but it suits Livingston perfectly, they're a very physical, direct side. Rangers could struggle here.

Livingston vs Rangers
There is a tight one to call in the SPL tomorrow lunch-time when mid-table Livingston take on an improving Rangers in a 1:30pm kick-off at Almondvale Stadium. The two sides are level on points but victory for either team could see them rise as high as 2nd in the table.
Livingston are thriving under the management of Gary Holt after a disrupted start to the season under former manager Kenny Miller. Holt has seen his team win 3 and draw 1 of their last 4 league matches under his leadership. That draw was an impressive 0-0 draw against league leaders Hearts.
The key has been a solid defence. It's now been 223 minutes of league football since Holt's team last conceded. They have only conceded 1 goal under Holt in the league. That makes them a dangerous proposition for Rangers who come here with ambitions to overtake Celtic in the table this weekend.
Rangers continue to progress under Steve Gerrard. They are far from the polished article but a range of encouraging displays have shown glimpses of their potential. Their past two league performances have been dominant with a 4-0 win against Dundee and a 5-1 victory against St Johnstone.
One slight concern is that those two wins came at home. On the road, Gerrard is yet to taste victory with his side. They have 2 draws and 1 defeat away from home. Not ideal preparation for this tough encounter against a dogged side with a solid home record at home.
Personally, I don't see much value in the Rangers win. There remain a few questions about Gerrard's tactical nous. On the flip side, Holt seems to be ticking every box right now. I think at the very least the home team are worth backing as an Asian Handicap option. I can't see many goals being scored and it wouldn't surprise me if the home side were to win this.
Livingston AH +1.25 @ 1.89 with BetVictor
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.08 with MarathonBet

Got to get back to winning ways on Tuesday after what has been a pretty tough month. Even on Tuesday we still had a very late goal go against which stopped the double from landing. Hopefully we can end the month on a high and I have 5 bets.
Havant & Waterlooville v Solihull Moors (National League)
Solihull's away form doesn't quite match the heights of their home form as they have lost 3 and won 3. However those loses came against Fylde, Harrogate and Leyton Orient so you can hardly knock them for losing those games. They have beaten Eastleigh, Barrow and Dover and Saturday's trip is hardly any harder than those. Havant did stop us from landing the double on Tuesday night, but they are still struggling to win games. Their home form isn't terrible, but Solihull are in really good form at the moment and I think they should be favourites for this game so am happy to take Betway's 15/8. I suspect Solihull will continue to be under estimated by the bookies and unless their form takes a turn for the worse then they are likely to remain a decent value bet. 
Leyton Orient v Sutton (National League)
I Tweeted on Tuesday that I think the league will be between Salford and Leyton Orient now. Both sides look a cut above the rest of the league at the moment and crucially neither side are really dropping silly points unlike the teams around them. Sutton have had a very strange last 3 results and how on earth they allowed a terrible Dover to come back from 2 down with 10 men I just don't know. Orient are still yet to lose and I would have them around 4/6 for this game so the even money (Marathon and William Hill) is certainly worth taking. I have been really impressed with the way Orient have been putting away sides of late and in 5 of their last 7 games they have scored at least 3 goals. That is really impressive and I think they can add another 3 points on Saturday.
Maidstone v Chesterfield (National League)
Gary Waddock said that he had never seen such a one sided game that a team has lost after his Aldershot side lost to Maidstone on Tuesday night. It seems new Maidstone manager Harry Wheeler had a game plan of making them really hard to break down and they managed to sneak a goal to win the game 1-0. That is two 1-0 away wins on the bounce for Maidstone and they should make things very hard for a badly out of form Chesterfield back on their own pitch. I was surprised Martin Allen didn't either walk away or get the sack after the 3-1 defeat to Maidenhead on Tuesday. I see no reason to not carry on opposing them especially when they have been put in as favourites again which makes little sense to me, but again it is bookies using the big team mentality instead of what is actually happening on the pitch. Marathon are 9/4 about a home win.
Biggleswade v Redditch (Southern Premier Central)
The best bet of the weekend for me is the home side. Biggleswade are still unbeaten in the league and although they have drawn 5 of their 7 games they have started the season in really good shape. The only downside so far is the fact they surprisingly lost to Chesham in the FA Cup, but what that did mean was they didn't have a game last weekend so have had a bit of extra rest coming into this fixture. Redditch seem in a right mess off the field. Ex manager Paul Davies came out in the press saying that he had to beg players to play in what turned out to be his final game in charge when they lost 5-1 to Coalville. It seems the players hadn't been paid and the chairman certainly seems to be ruining the club. Former assistant Paul Smith has now been given the job and although he has done well at a lower level, this is the first time has been in charge of a side at this high a level. He lost 2-0 to Stratford in his first game in charge and although he has brought in 5 players since he took charge they still don't look a great squad. The home side are 24/25 wuth Marathon and that price looks very fair.
Corinthian Casuals v Enfield Town (Bostik Premier)
I have been really pleased with Enfield's start to the season given I put them up at a big price ante-post. They sit in 3rd place at the moment and they should be able to stay up there. In their last league game a couple of weeks ago they came from 2 down to Lewes to draw 2-2. Both goals came from Billy Bricknell who came of the bench as he was coming back from injury. They are unbeaten in the league still and should be able to beat Corinthian Casuals who are finding themselves a bit outclassed. They won their first league of the season last time, but that came against Harlow who are one off the bottom. Their other 2 points have come against teams around them in the table as well and I think they will continue to struggle against the better sides in the league. Marathon go 143/100 about an away win and that looks a good price.
Solihull 1pt @ 15/8 with Betway
Leyton Orient 2pts @ Evs Marathon/William Hill
Maidstone 1pt @ 9/4 with Marathon
Biggleswade 3pts @ 24/25 with Marathon
Enfield Town 2.5pts @ 143/100 with Marathon

Cagliari V Sampdoria
Sampdoria +0.25 AH @ 1.869 Matchbook
This should be a closely contested match between two teams with similar styles but I feel odds for Sampdoria have become too generous and there is some value with the away team now.
The main question mark hanging over this game was whether or not CF Pavoletti would play for Cagliari. He is one of the best ariel players in the division and is a particular threat to Sampdoria because of their vulnerability when defending set-pieces. It does now look like Pavoletti will start for Cagliari after recovering from a back problem and this is perhaps why the market has reacted and turned against Samp. On the flip side, it looks like Sampdoria coach Marco Giampaolo may rest CB Tonelli and replace him with CB Colley; the latter is much stronger in the air and should help to negate the threat of Pavoletti if he plays. The market may see the absence of Tonelli as a net negative where as I do not given the circumstances which surround this game.
Cagliari can be difficult to beat on their own patch but they cannot be viewed on the same level as Sampdoria both in terms of quality and firepower. It's early days but Sampdoria clearly outperform Cagliari in several key metrics, ELO ratings also look promising for the away side here.
I feel the odds drift on Sampdoria presents us with an opportunity here, I would have the two teams valued more closely. Hopefully Sampdoria can pickup somekind of positive result from this game.
 

Saturday was a bit more like it with a superb win for Solihull although Wrexham decided to put in what will probably be their worst performance of the season. The acca was only just denied by an 88th minute equaliser as well. Tuesday sees a full National League fixture list as well as a handful of Evo-Stik Northern Prem games and the FA Cup replays.
Chesterfield v Maidenhead
It looks a trappy night in the National League as there are teams I would love to oppose but some of them are playing each other or the opposition are too short (Aldershot being an example of the latter). I have out Chesterfield up a couple of times during this dreadful run they are on, but they are still winless since winning their first 3 games. They were shocking on Saturday when losing 3-0 to Gateshead at home where they managed just 2 shots during the match. Martin Allen claimed it was the worst performance from any team that he has managed and it wouldn't surprise me if that was true. He has come out and said they have had a meeting with the players and he hopes to get a response from them on Tuesday night. It might happen, but you have to wonder if Allen is actually capable of getting the best out of his players and I wouldn't even go as far to say if they lost this he won't be in the job after the game. Maidenhead's away form does concern me as they have only won once and lost 4 of the other 5 including at Barrow on Saturday. The win was against Braintree and the draw was against Dagenham so that isn't great, but they played well enough on Saturday and I think Alan Devonshire's men will smell blood here. One thing that does worry me is the amount of travelling they will have to do, but I think it's factored into the price and I am happy to take 15/4 about an away win which for me should be shorter.
Barnet v Havant and Solihull v Dagenham
Solihull were superb on Saturday to beat Bromley 5-0 and they now face a struggling Dagenham side who looked awful at Eastleigh on Saturday in the live game. I can't see Peter Taylor being in the job for too much longer as I imagine the new owners will want to get their own man in who can build a better team than the one they have. As mentioned on Saturday Solihull are very strong at home and are making a mockery of their favourites to go down tag. Barnet are in good form at the moment after a slow start to the season and their only loss of late was against top of the table Leyton Orient and even then they held their own for a long period of the match. I think their injury list told that day and they were good on Saturday when drawing against Fylde. Havant got a draw at Ebbsfleet, but the home side under performed again and I'm not sure it says a great deal. I do get the feeling it will click for them at some point, but it is hard to see it being at Barnet who are playing with plenty of confidence at the moment. Both Barnet and Solihull are around about the same price and the double with Marathon pays 5/2 and that looks a decent price.
Maidenhead 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365
Barnet/Solihull 1pt double @ 5/2 with Marathon

I have gone with Leicester +0.25 AH @ 1.84 Betvictor, Wolves lineup for tonight is clearly second string while Leicester are putting in a respectable eleven and good bench. Wolves will prioritise staying in the EPL while Leicester will want to do well in the cups as they are well established in the prem.

Crystal Palace V Newcastle Utd
X @ 3.46 Marathonbet
In the absence of Benteke, Palace have switched to a 4-3-3 system and I actually prefer this. It gets 3 central midfielders on the pitch and opens the door for Max Meyer to get into the starting lineup. In my view he is the playmaker that Palace need as their attacking play has suffered this season in the absence of Cabaye and Loftus-Cheek. Palace may have won at Huddersfield on Saturday but it was a bit of a smash and grab as Huddersfield deserved something from the game in view of the amount of chances they created. Palace's new system maybe a step in the right direction but I think it'll take time before the red and blue army are firing on all cylinders.
We all know what Newcastle are like under Benitez; difficult to break down, hard to beat. The only reason they're currently at the foot of the table is because the fixture machine was harsh in the opening rounds. I think they will start to pickup points soon and will see this game at Palace as an opportunity to get somekind of positive result.
These are the kind of games that Palace do not like, home to an opponent that is prepared to sit back and defend and can do it effectively. Hard to see a winner emerging from this encounter so I think we have an increased likelyhood of stalemate.
3.46 for the draw is generous in my view.
 
 

Very much agree. I was going to tip Edinburgh City myself, they should be favourites here.

Queens park manager gus McPherson away to st mirren. Edinburgh are on fire and don't concede many. Queen's struggle to score a lot of goals. 9/5 for Edinburgh is good value
 

Crystal Palace V Newcastle Utd
X @ 3.46 Marathonbet
In the absence of Benteke, Palace have switched to a 4-3-3 system and I actually prefer this. It gets 3 central midfielders on the pitch and opens the door for Max Meyer to get into the starting lineup. In my view he is the playmaker that Palace need as their attacking play has suffered this season in the absence of Cabaye and Loftus-Cheek. Palace may have won at Huddersfield on Saturday but it was a bit of a smash and grab as Huddersfield deserved something from the game in view of the amount of chances they created. Palace's new system maybe a step in the right direction but I think it'll take time before the red and blue army are firing on all cylinders.
We all know what Newcastle are like under Benitez; difficult to break down, hard to beat. The only reason they're currently at the foot of the table is because the fixture machine was harsh in the opening rounds. I think they will start to pickup points soon and will see this game at Palace as an opportunity to get somekind of positive result.
These are the kind of games that Palace do not like, home to an opponent that is prepared to sit back and defend and can do it effectively. Hard to see a winner emerging from this encounter so I think we have an increased likelyhood of stalemate.
3.46 for the draw is generous in my view.
 
 

MOL Vidi - BATE
 
Vidi Stadium will be build new, so they played Euro Games at the Puskas Stadium, but for today they have to played in Budapest - in Staidum of Ferencvaros. So blow for me here. Also bad Results and bad Form from Vidi Players - Rooster is in my Opinion to old - so they are not fresh enough. Also there best Striker Lazovic retired from now and so there will be missing his best Player. Also Huszti are missing.
For me Value def. on BATE Side.
BATE AHC0 @ 2.00 5/10 bet365

Hopefully we won't see a repeat of last Saturday again this season as it was a horrid afternoon. Eastbourne put in their worst performance of the season by a long way and to lose so heavily to a team with 10 men for so long was shocking. Anyway days like that happen in a season so hopefully this weekend I can be back in the money. The National League South/North sides enter the FA Cup this weekend and at this stage no one has priced up any of the matches yet. Should that change and should I fancy something then I will add to this post. It means only the National League has a full fixture list and there are 2 bets I like.
Solihull Moors v Bromley
Bromley have lost 3 games on the bounce now and they drew the game before so that is 4 without a win. To be fair they didn't play too badly against Salford last weekend and going down to 10 men would not have helped their cause. Manager Neil Smith didn't think it was a red card, but from what I saw on the highlights it seemed justified to me. They have played 5 games away from home and have picked up just two points. It could be argued as well that they have been slightly fortunate to get both as they were 2 down in both matches. Against Wrexham it was a 90th minute own goal and against Maidenhead they scored twice in injury time to pick up a draw. Their season so far has certainly backed up my pre-season thoughts that they would struggle to reach the heights of last season. Solihull on the other-hand have looked anything but relegation candidates, which they were short in the betting for. After 11 games they only sit outside of the play-offs on goal difference and although I had my doubts about Tim Flowers as a manager it is a case of so far so good. They were especially strong at home last season and that has carried on this time around. They are the only team to have beaten Wrexham this season and although they lost to Hartlepool 1-0 in their last home game there is nothing wrong with that give Hartlepool are yet to lose away from home. It might be a game of few goals given Solihull have scored 5 and conceded 3 at home so far this season, but they look in much better shape than their opponents and 29/25 with Marathon looks a good price about a home win.
Sutton v Wrexham
Sutton losing 4-0 to Boreham Wood on Tuesday night was one of the most surprising results of the season so far. Given Boreham Wood had only scored twice away from home prior to that and Sutton had on conceded twice twice at home it was not a scoreline anyone would have seen coming. It was Sutton's first loss of the season at home, but although they have beaten Salford at home this season, I do think they have generally been playing better away from home. It was interesting to read Paul Doswell's quotes after the draw against Halifax when he spoke about it being a poor game and that the players were struggling with the busy schedule. Given they have had to play an extra game than Wrexham that is not going to help them here. I really don't understand why Wrexham are as big as 14/5 with Bet365. The price is starting to go and I can see them going off no bigger than 2/1 come 3pm Saturday. Wrexham needed a goalscorer last season and they are now capable of scoring goals. They have 18 so far this season and they looked really good when beating Ebbsfleet 4-1 last Saturday. What is also big for them is the fact they have been really hard to score against and they have conceded just 5 times. They look genuine title contenders and although I do expect some sort of response from Sutton I think Werxham will have too much for them and the price looks massive.
Solihull Moors 2.5pts @ 29/25 with Marathon
Wrexham 2.5pts 14/5 with Bet365 
FA Cup
So Bet365 have priced up some of the FA Cup games. Why they have chosen these over the others I have no idea. BetVictor I think might be pricing more up, but I can't bet with them so haven't looked at what they have done.
Acca
Usually I avoid acca's, but the FA Cup does lend itself to them as you get some complete mis-matches. I have had a bit of success with them over the years and I have come up with a 7 team acca that pays just over 5/1 with Bet365. All the teams are at home apart from the first one Torquay. Lymington couldn't believe their luck when they drew Torquay and after beating Lydney in a replay they get their big day. This game is on the BBC website, but it really should be a one sided affair especially with Gary Johnson not wanting a bad result in just his 2nd game in charge. City Of Liverpool have only lost 1 league game, but it is hard to see them causing Chester too many problems. Chippenham should be able to see off Swindon Supermarine and unbeaten Chorley shouldn't have any issues getting past Leek. Hampton & Richmond are flying at the moment and face a poor side in Burgess Hill who have yet to win in the league this season. Kidderminster could easily put a few past Step 6 side Atherstone Town. Finally Wealdstone should have too much for Great Wakering Rovers.
The other reason I like betting on the FA Cup is you get some big priced shocks, but nothing really appeals in this round so it will just be the acca.
Torquay, Chester, Chippenham, Chorley, Hampton & Richmond, Kidderminster & Wealdstone 1pt acca @ 5.17/1 with Bet365