KennyDelight
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Posts posted by KennyDelight
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Kaia Kanepi 2-0 v Maddison Inglis 1.80 (Bet365)
For me its about levels. Inglis is playing her first match on RLA (Centre Court) and I'm not sure if she can raise her levels to stay in this one, no matter the home support. She hasn't much WTA tour experience too.
She had a good win v out of sorts (possibly hampered by a back injury) Fernandez and scraped past the young qualifier Baptiste. During the match she didn't have an easy service hold and I think that will spell trouble v a player like Kanepi. Inglis also lost 2-6 1-6 v Zidansek and 1-6 3-6 v Rogers in Adelaide, I think it will be a blueprint of how this match will go.
- Robinnho and CzechPunter
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That Nur Sultan draw is so unbalanced. The top half is stacked with all the better players of the bunch, both seeded and unseeded. But draw is really as unpredictable as they come
Top half seeds Putintseva, Konjuh, Mladenovic, Peterson
Bottom half seeds Minnen, van Uytvanck, Burel, Gracheva
Kaja Juvan is a tasty 17/1 odds from the bottom half of the draw. She has a match v Greet Minnen, the winner faces a qualifier (Boulter/Krunic), someone out of (Vikhlyantseva, Cristian, Minella, Burel), then semi final, final.
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Yeah Siniakova showed lots of nerves in her performance. She was fearless for the first 5 points then got nervous serving. The whole match was two women who could barely get a comfortable service hold. Pavyluchenkova should despatch Martincova easily in the next round given the performance v Siniakova today. Plus the courts seem very slow so Pav should dominate. My guess is she'll open at 1.20 to win, maybe lower 1.16-ish
I think there maybe value in Sorribes Tormo winning a set at 1.72 given the conditions and her well known style of play. Has played a match and she was a quarter finalist last year in Ostrava and she is facing Bencic.
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Riske coming off a long week in Portoroz and the way she crumbled on serve in the final v Paolini is very concerning (lost serve 5 times in breaker and then 3 times in second set). Ferro with two matches under her belt in Ostrava in indoor conditions, including a 6-1 6-1 over Blinkova. She plays alot from the baseline and is a more attack minded player who will go for her shots which I think will get past Riske.
- darko08 and CzechPunter
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Teichmann to win a set v Jennifer Brady 1.83 @ Bet365
She is playing a similar player to Rogers. Someone who is a bigger hitter and pretty much plays one way. Teichmann will bring her variety and a few balls with spin to her shots which will trouble Brady as it did v Rogers. I think she is good value for a set. Brady looks overvalued based on it being a home tournament.
- CzechPunter and freeyourself84
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Alja Tomljanovic 2.10 to beat Anastasija Sevastova Bet365
Reasons:
Home crowd support, a good lead up to the first major with preparation games v Halep, Sharapova, Pliskova and Putintseva
Sevastova leads 2-0 h2h but both in Mallorca on grass. Has been a bit average at end of 2019 and continued with 2 losses in lead up games to the Open to similar players to Tomljanovic (Kenin, Vekic)
- ivanhoe, fizrukas and CzechPunter
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Ludmila Samsonova 2.20 to beat Jelena Ostapenko Bet365
Reasons:
Samsonova has had a full two months of training and playing. Had a full run in Australia including 3 qualifiers.
Ostapenko hasn't featured in any matches in the lead up to the Australian Open and her father recently passed away
- CzechPunter, four-leaf, fizrukas and 1 other
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23 minutes ago, money44 said:
Great pick Kenny.. just saw the result
Thanks Money
Was a bit worried when she came onto court with strapping on her thigh, her first service dropped to about 30%, even conspired to throw away a double break lead, but she pulled through against a pretty here and there performance by Stephens
I would not back Ludmila v Pavlyuchenkova/Kvitova, but glad she had enough to get it done today
- CzechPunter and Grass Cash
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Ludmila Samsonova 2.50 to beat Sloane Stephens Bet365 @WTA Brisbane
Reasons:
Ludmila has been training and playing during the month of December during the indoor swing, pulling off wins v Corbet and Giorgi
Has 3 matches under her belt in Brisbane, including a decent win v Mladenovic
Sloane Stephens had an average 2019 and has an average record in Australia, so a match on the outside courts first up at 11am may not get her motivated v a big hitting opponent who can frustrate her
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This Bol final so far has pretty much been about pushing. Most of the shots are mild power into the middle. And now Sorribes-Tormo seem to have changed her service style, when she's hitting the serve now both arms parallel like someone playing volleyball
BTW Nottingham weather is bad for the whole week. Keep that in mind for this week. Only Vekic has anything meaningful to defend and the majority of the field didn't play last year
- CzechPunter and eros
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Tamara Zidansek @1.80 to beat Sara Sorribes-Tormo Bet365
Backing the defending champion here based on the two styles. Zidansek is quick around the court, her positioning is solid and she has the ability to push players around the court from the baseline due to her forehand which is powerful yet controlled more often than not.
She has the ability to slice as seen this week in countering Voegele and Juvan, so I fail to see how Sorribes-Tormo has any advantage over Zidansek.
Sorribes-Tormo's serve is lacking power and is ripe for plunder against Zidansek. Zidansek's serve hasn't been great this week but I don't see how Sorribes-Tormo can take advantage with her lack of power and will most likely resort to her moonball and slice game. With Zidansek's power from the back of the court, this tactic may not come up trumps against an in form clay player who has good defence to to with her attack minded game.
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WTA Bol 125k
Tamara Zidansek 2.10 v Timea Bacsinszky
I don't think Zidansek has started off great in her first two matches. It took her time to get into both matches but she eventually got the job done. She's the form player out of the two this year on clay, finalist here last year. Timea hasn't really been impressive on clay this year, also had two soft matches to come into this (Nao Hibino and Anna Tatishvili). Also bombed out of the French to Kurumi Nara in qualifying. There is value imo in the slight outsider whose massive forehand is a weapon when on and is fairly quick in her movement
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Well, the reason of the loss of Bautista has a very easy explanation this time. Bautista is focused in the Mutua Madrid Open where he will have an incredible tough test in the 1st round that will be exhausting for him (David Ferrer). Since the match was delayed yesterday for rain to this morning probably Rober decided to "lose" this match to not play 2 matches in one day in a minor event
Taking a look at your results looks like your radar value works well but how can u introduce these kind factors in your application? I think that the best possible bets are: 1) betting against players that have no interest in a tournament; 2) betting against players that are not in his best physically/mentally
Darko is Garin value in the final?
Odds opened
Garin 1.80
Berretinni 2.00
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Sounds all plausible ... confidence? Because odds went the other way.
I noticed the trend on tennis explorer too. I feel about 6/10 confidence despite the slight change in odds (about 10 cents).
I don't think it's too much a fluctuation to take much notice, for me this should be more a 1.80 v 1.80 matchup.
Edit: Odds on Yafan Wang have drifted to 1.72 and now Saisai has shortened to 2.00 with Bet365
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Saisai Zheng 2.20 to beat Yafan Wang Bet365
Reasonings behind pick:
- h2h 4-0 Zheng
- Wang's first Madrid Open, slower surface. Her game doesn't have the most variety and her strength is her power, but I don't see her being able to outhit Zheng. Zheng has a little bit more variety and can utilise her slices, approaches to the net, moonballs and
- Wang doesn't have a outstanding record on clay, neither Zheng but Zheng has played on this surface 2 years ago and made the second round including a win over Svitolina. Zheng just won the clay tournament in Anning whilst Wang came off a 3 set loss to Konta on a bit faster clay surface. I feel Zheng's style is more suited to this slower surface
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On 2/20/2019 at 9:50 AM, bobix said:
Back Radu Albot (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Nick "as*hole" Kyrgios at 1.81 with MarathonBet
I didn't bet on this one but was watching the match and what you said about Kyrgios being an asshole came true. Kyrgios was again acting a fool in the final set. Not sure if truly injured but his last set was typical Kyrgios and even managed to dance to the music on a changeover
His matches are really blacklisted for me no matter where he plays
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Pliskova has done a Serena Williams Aus Open 2019
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Jennifer Brady 2.10 to win a set v Petra Kvitova (Bet365)
Total player games Jennifer Brady over 8.5 games 1.83 (Bet365)
I don't see why Kvitova is such a heavier favourite than she was against Siniakova (1.22 v 4.30). Brady is in better form in humid conditions in Hua Hin and Dubai and Siniakova is a bit of a mental wreck and is one of the Czech players who Petra has a stangelhold on. Last week I saw Siniakova break down and cry against Bonaventure and she showed too much respect to Petra, even running through so Petra didn't have to wait at the net at changeovers. Not that I am downplaying her match v Siniakova but feel she'll be playing an opponent in Brady with a slightly better mental state than Siniakova and no history of friendship, matches or understanding of.
Watching the Kvitova match, she didn't really enjoy the warm humid/windy conditions yesterday. She will be playing 11am start again in Dubai which is set to be windy and humid again. She looked to be breathing very heavy from the early points and looked to shorten the points early on. Looking at her record in Dubai all her matches have gone 3 sets (albeit her only 3 appearances have come between 2014-2016)
- CzechPunter, darko08 and bobix
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As much as I think Ostapenko is normally a class above Brady, today could be more challenging. Ostapenko's serving will be under much scrutiny against a big hitter and the challenging wind conditions in Dubai.
Brady has 2 matches under her belt this year in Dubai conditions, both straight sets. Ostapenko's record in Dubai is 2 times losing her first match of the tournament (Wang, Vesnina) and 1 time losing in second qualifying round (Mattek-Sands)
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58 minutes ago, Fader said:
What the hell has happened to carol garcia. She's a mess! my mum could beat her at the moment with that serving.
She is playing like Hsieh did last night. To make it worse, Brady has a long service game and immediately takes a MTO for a back rub. Fuming
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Hsieh Su-Wei -2.5 games to beat Monica Niculescu 1.80 Bet365
One of the more in form Asian players in the game right now, and quite underrated. Niculescu's style should not trouble Hsieh, who has enough variety (unorthodox) and intelligence around the court in her game to counteract the typical Niculescu style (slowing the points down, slices here and there). The players who are usually troubled by Niculescu are the players who don't have the variety in their game and base their game around all out attack, power, or limited in their repertoire.
- CzechPunter and darko08
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The Sasnovich - Kvitova match has been delayed at least 1 hour 25 minutes due to storms in Sydney. 2.75 on Sasnovich wouldn't be out of the question given Kvitova has defended her points from last year and given storms are predicted for rest of tonight
Chances are it'll be delayed until tomorrow if forecasts are correct (right now in Sydney thunder and lightning, medium to heavy rain)
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Tatjana Maria 2.00 v Andrea Petkovic @ 2.00 Bet365
The courts in Linz aren't that fast or very high bouncing, matches have been stretched out for well over 2 hours yesterday. Can anticipate a longer match as Tatjana Maria has shown she is able to hang around in matches especially when she utilises her slices which would be extremely effective in these conditions.
Looking at Petkovic's history this year, she struggled last month against Sorribes Tormo and Cabrera. This year losses against Gavrilova, Vinci, Niculescu. Similar players to Maria. I feel this is a pattern in her game which reflects the lack of patience in longer matches especially with players who don't offer the greatest power for their opponents to feed off but have good court positioning and utilise the slice and drop shots effectively, like to stretch matches out.
- CzechPunter and darko08
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Muguruza/Sorribes Tormo under 18.5 games 1.72 @Bet365
Based on recent form, Muguruza has covered under 18 games recently in the Asian swing this year against van Uytvanck, Golubic, Makarova who are a little better than Sorribes Tormo. Sorribes Tormo is a player lacking any power behind her serve and not as big groundstrokes as the average WTA player and can't really hit past Muguruza.
Muguruza's only losses this Asian swing this year have come against players with more power and the ability to move her round the court and simply don't see that in Sorribes Tormo. She's like a b-grade Errani
- Pezperry12, darko08 and CzechPunter
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Tennis Tips - April 11 - April 17
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Martincova to beat Raducanu seems simple enough? Am I missing something but Raducanu has very little clay experience. The match is a Billie Jean (Fed) Cup tie in front of a traditionally passionate Czech crowd. Raducanu's record this year is average even from being a set up