markus808

I'm on Uruguay to top the group at 5/6 and separately 5/1 to win all their group games.
Uruguay are very strong with some world class players, Cavani hitting 10 goals in qualification and finishing 2nd behind Brazil and ahead of Argentina.
Most worried about the opening game vs Egypt and wouldn't be surprised to see a 0 - 0 or 1 - 1 given the opening games being tight affairs. At 5/1 with Saudi Arabia almost being a gimme it seems a decent price for them to win all 3.

Peru captain paolo guerrero has had his drugs ban lifted for the tournament. He is peru's main striker and talisman.
He scored twice yesterday v saudi arabia in a 3-0 win. He is favourite to be top Peru goalscorer at 5/2 with b365, which looks worth taking. 

I think there's money to be made betting against Argentina, they're far too short at 10.00. Scraped through qualification after being the lowest scorers out of the top 6 teams, recently hammered by Spain. Even Messi can't carry this team on his own.

Everybody and his dog 'knows' this is going to be a high scoring game. Just the occasion when, because each team also know the dangers of their opponents attack, they will concentrate more on not giving anything away.
For me it has all the hallmarks of a 0-0 at 90 minutes.
Having said that, should a goal be scored in the first half, then the game profile changes and a hat-full is possible. But for me that doesn't make the odds of 23.0 available for 0-0 correct score (Skybet) a poor value bet, even if used as a small stake saver with whatever else you think may happen.

Brighton has a total of 24 out of 35 under 2.5 and two at home. Home team Brainton has a difficult schedule and should not feel comfortable, even the score today will be important, I expect a close match with a few goals
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION vs MANCHESTER UNITED @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.80

Dijon FCO vs Olympique Lyonnais
2018, April 20, 21:00 hrs
French Ligue 1
Dijon is in a safe situation, far from the relegation posts, but also far from the European positions, however it has been a respectable season for the team. Thanks to a good performance at home where of 16 games the team has won 9, only losing 4. Of the last five home games, the team achieved victory in three, however in the two most recent ties with the Amiens SC and lost to Olympique de Marseille.
With only one defeat, precisely that of Marseille, in the last five games the team has improved in its recent form, but against one of the four top teams of the French league a complicated match is expected. And more when many of their offensive key players will miss this match.
For its part Lyon after its elimination of the Europa League against CSKA Moscow, has a four-game winning streak in line, two away and two home, without having allowed a goal in the last three games. So the Lyon comes in great form, with four away match without losing and has 14 consecutive away games making at least one goal. In addition to the fact that the visitor has 10 wins in 17 games, the performance of the visiting team is very positive.
With few matches in dispute, the team seeks to distance itself from Marseille and if possible to unseat AS Monaco from second place. Because although the distance they have with the rest of the teams, the first four already guaranteed participation in Europe, but it remains to be defined if it will be in the Europa League or in the Champions League, so they can not relax, the team has the offensive options for it, since the pair Mariano Diaz and N. Fekir have achieved 34 goals altogether, many more goals than some teams. An even that Mariano Diaz will be sideline, the team has players to fill his spot.
Taking into account the previous  the game should be taken by Lyon, however the last match played in Gaston Gerard was a Dijon victory by 4-2 and the other two matches between them played in Parc OL, have been closed, a draw 3-3 and a 4-2 victory of Lyon, before those games the Dijon was in lower categories, so I see as the best option the option of more than 3 goals. Since at least on the part of Lyon the offensive elements are guaranteed and the defense of the Dijon barely has a match without accepting a goal in the last five.
Over 3 with 7 units @ 1.79 at 5Dimes

Went with your Lazio bet and first half Roma win 1-0 and 2-0, solid pics and solid data behind! Made a good profit.

Benevento v Atalanta - Atalanta to win @ 1.67
 
Benevento are 14 points of safety with 18 points left to play for, however they have recovered from an awful start and picked up their first away point of the season at the weekend. At home they have also improved having won 3 of the last 7 but in total they have lost 11 at home from 16 games played.
Atalanta are pushing for a Europa League spot and though their form has dipped recently with 2 draws and a win in their last 3 they have lost just once in their last 10 away and that was at Juventus.

It's worth noticing Lazio's away record: 15/16 games (94%) were Over 2.5 goals.
Odds around 1.85 are pretty juicy, don't you think?

I suggest looking at Roma v Genoa
Genoa's away record: 14/16 games (88%) were Under 2.5 goals (Odds around 2.10)
Genoa's away record: 14/16 games (88%) at least one team didn't score a goal. (No Goal @ 1.75)
H2H: Roma won their last 10 games at home against Genoa. (Odds around 1.35)
Correct Score: 1-0 or 2-0 worth a shot
 

Arsenal vs Stoke
This season has been one to forget for Arsenal but they are looking to build on the positive 3-0 win against Watford a few weeks ago to solidify their Europa League qualification berth in the league as they welcome a struggling Stoke to the Emirates Stadium in the 1:30pm kick off this Sunday.
The Gunners had lost three league games on the trot before that annihilation of the Hornets. Their destruction of a highly-rated AC Milan in the Europa League has also led to suspicion that Arsene Wenger might be turning their form around. Typical Wenger, always inconsistent! #WengerOut
Paul Lambert was a controversial appointment as Stoke manager and he's not really managed to defy expectations of the critics. The Potters are now languishing in 19th place on 27 points. It now means they are without a win in 7 league games and have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 league matches. They are 3 points adrift of safety and the two sides above them have a game in hand on them.
I feel this is the exact sort of game where Arsenal will run riot. Stoke cannot really afford to sit back and take attack after attack from the home side. However, if Stoke go toe-to-toe with Arsenal then they will be playing a dangerous game. Their play in the final third has been shocking so Lambert is working with scraps. I just can't see Stoke even competing here.
Arsenal -1 @ 1.80 with Coral
Arsenal HT/FT @ 1.91 with BetVictor

Huddersfield vs Crystal Palace
My second preview in this weekend of limited Premier League action is Huddersfield against Crystal Palace. It's a coming together of two relegation battlers who are going through patches of form that are exactly the reason they are not further up the table. It's a crucial game that could have a massive impact on both of their survival hopes.
Huddersfield are currently in 15th place but only 4 points above the relegation zone. Funnily enough, it is Crystal Palace that fill that last relegation spot right now in 18th place. Roy Hodgson's men are just 1 point from safety but the alarm bells are starting to ring.
David Wagner's men come into this game with just 1 defeat in their last 4 league matches. That is a run that put an end to their torrid sequence of 5 straight defeats in the league. One worrying issue for the Terriers is the fact they have failed to score in more than 214 minutes of Premier League football. It is not helped by the statistic that they have scored just 15 goals in 15 games at home this season. The flip side is that Palace have only scored 10 goals in 15 games on the road.
The Eagles are drifting towards a desperate situation. It is now 7 league games without a win for the London club. It is 5 away matches without a win. That statistic might be slightly unfair based on the fact that their recent matches have included Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Tottenham. It still leaves the pressure on with 8 league games remaining.
I'm not expecting a classic here. I think, ultimately, both teams would probably reluctantly accept a point. Palace will certainly feel West Brom are gone. That leaves two relegation spots realistically remaining. Southampton are in free fall, Stoke have not impressed under Paul Lambert. Then there's half a dozen teams above those sides that could get dragged into it. Winning the home games and getting anything away from home will see Palace safe. A point tomorrow would be a start. I'm favouring a draw but it'll be a dour occasion with both teams nervous and over-cautious. Losing is simply not an option.
Draw @ 3.20 with Bet365
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.67 with SunBets

Seems like a good week for live bets, many teams will try to improve their standings and need to play for points, others again may have lost their motivation. Lot's of variance this week I'm afraid.

I will put small bet on Manchester United vs Liverpool Under 0.5 @11 Bet365. This score will definitely happen more often than only once out of 11 games played, so it's a good value bet for me.

Also thought about betting on draw, but found a better bet which covers more of the variance Manchester United vs Liverpool Under 1.5 @3.75 Bet365.  So basically I'm betting against the 1-1 score line which is a bookies favorite. I think we will see negative football from the Chosen One and they will be happy with a draw. And if they happen to get a head I think they can hold it until the end, Liverpool is easy to frustrate.
 

Leicester vs Bournemouth draw @ 3.70 with Betsafe seems like a value bet, correct line should be something like 2.50 2.86 4.00 imho. There shouldn't be such a wide gap between the clubs as the odds may imply. 
Swansea vs West Ham, Swansea's last 3 home games have been wins (Liverpool, Arsenal, Burnley) West Ham has lost their last 3 away games. Swansea @ 2.65 with Betsafe seems to be a good bet. Also both teams to score @ 2.08 with Betsafe seems value, it should happen more often than not.

 

Thursday                                                                                 Odds  Stake  Liability
D Kiev v Everton                  6.00 Lay D Kiev not to win            1.67 £2.00 £1.34 4-1 lost £1.34
Copenhagen v Sherrif          6.00 Lay Copenhagen not to win  1.77 £2.00 £1.54 2-0 lost £1.54
Zlin v Lok Moscow                6.00 Lay Lok Moscow not to win  1.66 £2.00 £1.32 0-2 lost £1.32
Basaksehir v Braga              6.00 Lay Basaksehir not to win     1.83 £2.00 £1.66 2-1 lost £1.66
Slavia v Astana                     6.00 Lay Slavia not to win            1.74 £2.00 £1.48 0-1 won £1.90
Villarreal v Mac Tel Aviv       6.00 Lay Villarreal not to win        1.63 £2.00 £1.26 0-1 won £1.90
Young Boys v Skenderbeau 6.00 Lay Young Boys not to win  1.60 £2.00 £1.20 2-1 lost £1.20
Arsenal v BATE                    8.05 Lay Arsenal not to win          1.49 £2.00 £0.98 6-0 lost £0.98
Steaua v Lugano                  8.05 Lay Steaua not to win           1.52 £2.00 £1.04 1-2 won £1.90
Marseille v Salzburg             8.05 Lay Marseille not to win        1.62 £2.00 £1.24 0-0 won £1.90
Total matches played = 10 - total matches won = 4 - total matches lost = 6
Total won = £7.60 - total lost = £8.04 - total lost = £0.44
Bank £27.11
Selections 110
Won 48
Lost 62
Total lost £0.44
New Bank £26.67

There is some very good advice on this thread but I thought i would add to it as I've been a professional for nearly 2 years and have worked in the industry for 10+ years. However despite being successful I'm leaving the industry and starting in an entirely new career.
First thing I would say is that you simply do not just become a professional. It typically takes years of work, research learning etc to learn how to win and for me this was done whilst working full time. I only went full time when I knew I would earn more from betting than my job. The biggest consideration is then sustainability. Just because you may be able to make a profit now does not you mean you will able to in the future. Markets tend to become more efficient over time, your edge can easily disappear and other people will almost certainly figure out what you have in the future. You will have to be constantly learning and developing new strategies to stay ahead which is very difficult! It's already been mentioned but ultimately you need somewhere where you can win and this means exchanges or Asian bookmakers. Problem here is that many markets (which is the case for me) are much more accurate at betfair and the Asian bookmakers are typically the best at what they do. What makes you think you are better than these guys? My betting partner and I have taken approximately 400k from bookmakers in 2 years. However, bookmakers are becoming better and quicker at closing any potentially profitable accounts. Unless you have unlimited accounts (I would estimate I've used around 100 in this time) winning from European bookmakers is not a sustainable option.
I would also ask why is it you want to become a professional? People think the life of a professional gambler is glamorous but it certainly isn't. For me I've been working a massive number of hours (more than when I worked for someone else). It will typically involve working by yourself in front of a computer at home, which can become very isolating. Pro gamblers live on the edge of society in my opinion and this can be difficult to deal with. Yes there are advantages such as flexibility being your own boss, no tax etc but there are negatives such as no sick pay, no pension, no promotions, no yearly pay rises and also remember what happens if it doesn't work out. You will have a big gap in your CV should you wish to renter the workplace.
Finaly the betting industry is cut throat. Can you deal with this psychologically? If you can't cope with losing you will fail imo. Everyone is out to get you, whether that is bookmakers or other gamblers they all want your money and they don't care how they get it. No one is going to give you a betting system or strategy that makes money. If you want to be profitable you must learn to do it yourself. Sorry if I sound negative about the prospect, it certainly is possible to make it as a professional but it's bloody difficult. If the financial benefits outway the negatives than great but for the vast majority this will not be the case. 

Swansea vs Arsenal under 2.5 @ 2.18 Unibet. Expecting similar game as against Liverpool, Swansea is defensively solid if they decide to park the bus, which they do against top clubs. 

Everton vs Leicester  1x @1.45 Betsafe. I think the market has overreacted to Leicesters recent draw with Chelsea. Although I'm a fan and Leicester are better on the paper, they are notoriously unreliable and should not be favorites away to Everton.
 
I agree, West Ham took a heavy loss losing two of their best offensive players. There is some value in laying the Hammers.
 

Chelsea V AFC Bournemouth
AFC Bournemouth +2.0 AH @ 1.7 Unibet
Markets are a bit generous with the Bournemouth price in my view. This will be Chelsea's 9th competitive game in the month of January. Antonio Conte's side will have averaged a game every 3.4 days which is pretty crazy when you think about it. Chelsea are a good side but their main strength is defence. Offensively speaking they are relative laggards compared to their big 6 piers and they do not strike fear into the hearts of opposition defences like Liverpool or City do.
So without doing any in-depth analysis I thought Bournemouth being available on +2 AH line was a bit strange here. After looking at the metrics in detail I would estimate that Bournemouth +1 AH line for this match should be around 2.4. At the time of writing this we're getting 3.4 in a couple of places which seems big.
Obviously this game is a long way out so the risk is a lot can happen between now and this fixture. Maybe Chelsea will make some attacking aquisitions in the window between now and then but even so Bournemouth price is just too big to ignore given the present circumstances imo.
 
 

To me , the fixtures this week (apart from the Liverpool v Man City game), are a hand grenade.
Three big teams at ridiculously low odds. Chelsea, Tottenham and Man United. The biggest odds on offer (1.32) for the home win, are lousy. The implied probability (for the win) is around 75% for each of these games. Leicester are capable of surprising Chelsea, while Stoke and Everton will play an 11 man defense and hope for a break away or set piece goal. Not a place for the smart money ! 

The other games are a lottery, which is suggested by the price. Can you really pick a winner (with confidence) between Crystal Palace and Burnley, Huddersfield and West Ham, WBA and Brighton or Watford v Southampton. My feeling is NO. These teams are so inconsistent, and totally unpredictable. Is there any team closer to Watford in blowing games, and throwing wins away? 

Crystal Palace are even money to beat Burnley . Really ! What nonsense. Burnley have lost 2 away league games this season (Leicester and Man City). I would'nt touch Palace with a 10 ft pole here.
Just a week for leaving the cash in the wallet !
 
If I had to bet on something, I would take Southampton to beat Watford away for 2 main reasons.
1) Saints away record has been proo, but no team in the EPL has had a tougher away schedule last 5 games.
2) Watford are just a crazy team. They are liable to blow them selves up at any moment, have a guy sent off, or just collapse. No team in the EPL has squandered a lead more than them ...
 

I think Barcelona will easly win Juventus. The Italian`s defence is not the same without Bonucci. Last meating on Camp Nou finished 0:0 after Barcelona miss a lot of chances and I think it was a big luck for Juventus. Other good spot is Over 4.0 Asian Total Cards. The referee is Damir Skomina who gives average 4.09 cards. GL everyone!

Betting at this stage of the season changes. One thing counts here 
MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !
Find teams that are motivated, either to win something (European places, avoid relegation etc). These teams will make you money.
Two middle of the table, nothing to lose or gain teams against each other will produce goals. They can't get into Europe, they can't be relegated, they are already on holiday. Just cruising the rest of the season, and trying not to  pick up an injury.
I really like Spurs to smack Watford in the early kickoff. I think it's a proper hiding.
HT/FT home win 1.73
Win to nil 1.83 Spurs
 
 
 
 

EURO 2016 Wales - Northern Ireland

Two home nations meeting in France for a place in the last 8 of the European Championships............the script writers have done a good job !

Wales qualified in style, winning group B with a 3-0 demolition of Russia, a match which was over as a contest inside 20 minutes. They played 24 hours before Northern Ireland, who had a far more fraught game with Germany, where they lost 1-0 , but knew a narrow defeat might well be good enough. They battled hard, but could easily have lost that by 4 or 5 on another day and the mentally draining nature of that and a day less to recover and prepare, is a clear advantage to the Welsh. The Irish will feel that having met Germany in this stadium, this will have a more familiar feel to them, but not if they start playing where they left off, which is firmly on the back foot ! In that match Toni Kroos completed more passes (121-110) than the entire Northern Ireland team (!) , they have been on the back foot for much of the time here in France and only had four attempts on goal in two games and you suspect they will be starting to feel the effects. They do pose a big threat from set pieces, which Wales will be well aware of , but have only scored three from open play in ten competitive starts.

The Irish might take heart from a 1-1 draw between the two nations in a March friendly, but they were at full strength, the Welsh were without Ben Davies, Joe Allen, Aaron Ramsey and Gareth Bale, plus several others and were still the better team. Wales have the 2-3 best players on the pitch, with Gareth Bale head and shoulders above everyone and far more EPL quality in the ranks and stronger options off the bench and with this the fourth international start inside 13-14 days for both, that could easily prove decisive. The breakthrough goal will, of course, be the hardest to come by, but if Wales get it, the Irish will have to come forward and that will leave them incredibly vulnerable on the counter and Wales have pace and are very quick in transition. Two very together groups, but most of the quality and advantages are with the Welsh and they are the ones who will go home feeling a little deflated if they do not progress, for the Irish this tournament is already a success.

Wales -0.5 @ 2.07 at Sportmarket

  
 

A putrid day yesterday....can't possibly go worse today.
 
 
Group F:
 
Austria vs Iceland 

The so far shockingly disappointing Austrians take on the not-so-big underdog from Iceland in an elimination match for qualification. It's no secret how much I talked up the Austrians in the run-up to the tournament but it seems like their nerves let them down big time. They looked dreadful in midfield against Hungary and only slightly improved on that against Portugal. Their defensive transition was a bit better and they didn't leave quite as many spaces in between defense and midfield. Still, they looked really vulnerable down the flanks again and should have conceded at least two and that's not even counting Cristiano's penalty. For some strange reason though small teams really have been able to ride their luck so far and get tight results in matches that should have been blowouts. So Austria is still in it but I have my doubts if they can get the necessary W against Iceland. Their attacking play is still MIA. I haven't really seen any of the slick midfield passing from Austria and they look sort of clueless how to create chances (both matches under 80% pass completion).Alaba got much criticism after his last performance but just as much is on the coach in my opinion who played him out of position and expected him to do it all for Austria. He'll shift back tonight and Janko should start as number nine again.

Iceland got outplayed in midfield for most of last match but didn't really concede a lot of dangerous situations. They put in a valid fighting effort but I am frankly stunned by how limited they are. Their entire build-up play is long balls to their central forward or balls down the flanks to not concede possession in midfield. I'm quite shocked by how the Netherlands managed to not qualify behind a dysfunctional Czech team, this limited Iceland side and the one-dimensional Turks. Anyway, a draw takes Iceland through and that is how they'll play. Park the bus, don't let Austria score and try to get a couple of lang balls forward for a counterattack or a set-piece. Portugal pushed them pretty deep but they seemed rather comfortable in defending Hungary, whose passing in midfield has been arguably more solid than Austria's so far.

My initial thought here was goals. The last three opponents that Iceland managed to shut out were Kazakhstan, Finland and Liechtenstein. Against eleven pthers they conceded. Austria haven't scored in three and they are probably due to find the net tonight, in one way or another. That should leave space to Iceland to hit them on the break. However, the tournament has really not gone as I thought and while I expected few goals, I didn't envision teams be that content to blatantly play for a goalless draw. I talked about how the dysfunctional teams so far couldn't rescind that impression in their last match and Austria has been one of them. Iceland has been really limited but what they did, they did well. Odds have rebounded again and I can't help myself but go with the underdog here who has left a more cohesive impression so far.

Iceland +0,5 vs Austria - 1 Unit@1,82 (Pinnacle)




Hungary vs Portugal 

You really didn't need to be a prophet to tell me that one of these teams would be qualified coming into their last match. But I guess I would have slapped you if you told me that was Hungary. But that's how things stand here. Portugal can probably do with a draw but realistically they need and want to win this to put themselves top of the group and in a really good position in the top half for the ko stages. They've looked quite good so far but they shot temselves in the foot with their usual lack of finishing. Cristiano took a lot of **** for missing the penalty against Austria but if we're being realistic, he should be on one to two goals already, penalty excluded. Their wide play has been good and they look really strong and solid in the center of the pitch. They might be flying a bit under the radar for the moment but a win tonight would really wake up people to the prospect that this team can go to the final. I expect more of the same tonight, a dominant and strong display in attack and at one point they will inevitably find the goal with the amount of chances they create. Gomes and Guerreiro will miss tonight but Sanches should be a valid replacement for the former.

Hungary have been surprisingly solid so far but they faced one opponent that's been willing to leave them the center of the pitch (Iceland) and one that did so involuntarily (Austria). They haven't been tested at the back yet and Ronaldo must be fancying his chances shooting from distance against 40 yo Kiraly. Still, Hungary lost only one of their last seven and that was a friendly to Germany (0-2). They will come in with confidence and we've seen how much the smaller teams were able to frustrate the favourites so far.

I can't see past Portugal here to be honest. They put themselves in too many good positions and that will have to pay off at some point. Their shooting from distance could be even more dangerous tonight against a poorer goalie and if they fail to convert in three straight games, so be it. Hungary will use the EURO 2016 tactics 101 module and defend. They are not much of an offensive threat and aren't really suited for counterattacking either. In their approach they more resemble the slow build-up passing that Turkey for example play. I'd be surprised if they score and Portugal will grind this one out.

Portugal to beat Hungary to nil - 1 Unit@2,0 (Bet365)
 
 
Group E:
 
Belgium vs Sweden 


Do or die situation here for Sweden. Zlatan announced that he's retiring from international football when Sweden exits the tournament and that might very well be today. They looked really poor so far and in my opinion the worst team from this group. At front they struggled to create any chances at all. Their midfield provides no creativity whatsoever and Ibrahimovic is forced to do pretty much everything, pick up the ball deep, play a direct ball to himself, lay it off and then shoot on target. This is how Sweden's attack feels like at the moment. Their back line looks ok but it's hard to gauge really. Ireland threatened a bit respective to their quality but Italy didn't even try for most parts of the match and still scored. Lindelöf looked a bit slow and immobile when Parolo took him on a couple of times and Belgium combined mostly on the left side of the pitch, so I reckon they will target him again.

Belgium are back in it and a win or a draw puts them through as runner-up and in a very interesting spot indeed. Spain's shock loss yesterday slammed the door open for a couple of "small" nations and Belgium could really smell blood here. They had trouble breaking down Ireland in the first half and in my opinion Ireland was way too eager to go forward after going down a goal. Belgium improved from their first match but it would have been shocking if they didn't and, frankly, Ireland made them look good. That said, Sweden is probably worse than Ireland and needs a win here. Belgium can do with a draw but that would be a fool's game to play and they would be well advised to win this one and take some confidence to the ko stages. Dembele could miss out but Nainggolan is an equal replacement. I'm still not sold on Belgium's tactical capabilities but Wilmots made at least one good move to combine most of their attack talent on one side and balance it with a proper full-back on the other to provide width.

Now what to make of the odds? Almost 1,9 on Belgium looks pretty decent in my opinion. They have a ton more quality and a trend I observed on the last matchday is that teams who looked dysfunctional so far confirmed that impression in their last match (Russia, Czech Republic). Sweden has been one of the worse teams so far and I really don't see them turning it around versus the best squad in the group in terms of player quality. However, this hasn't been a tournament of early goals (or any goals), and Belgium will be aware that Sweden needs the W more desperately than they do. Hamren talked about stopping Belgium and respecting them and that doesn't exactly sound like throwing the kitchen sink at the goal in the first half. At one point they will have to push higher and that was Ireland's undoing and could be Sweden's as well. I'd like to back Belgium from 2,1 or alternatively at halftime if this goes in with a draw, which probably works out roughly the same.


Belgium to beat Sweden - 1 Unit@2,1 as soon as the odds reach 2,1+ and the score is 0-0
 
 

Italy vs Ireland 

Some interesting circumstances here. Ireland need a win to go through, whereas Italy can treat this as a mere friendly and will have all eyes on Monday's showdown. Italy are the only side that can still close with 9 points but my guess is that they couldn't care less about this, regardless of what Conte or the players might be saying in public. They would have faced a tough opponent in Croatia but now it's Spain, so they will make sure they rest all important/booked players. Surely the team will have the R16 in mind and they already looked barely interested in their last match. How big does that late goal by Eder look now? I can't see them investing too much in attack and, in all fairness, they don't look good enough to go three straight wins. Their attack has still a distinct feel of randomness about it. The defense looks as solid as ever and both Ireland and Spain could have a hard time breaking that down. Ireland will go with its usual approach of putting the ball long and direct to their striker and I am not sure how much success that promises. They will risk a fair bit more than so far but can't become too exposed on the counter, since going a goal behind would surely end their hopes.

This match has a draw screaming in my face. Ireland have lost only one of their last five against Italy. Italy is still unbeaten under Conte in competitive fixtures. Unless an early freak goal happens, this might go the route that Italy-Sweden took. Really can't see a lot of goals happening and I'll pursue a strategy that has paid off big time so far at the tournament (and should have been played much more).

Italy vs Ireland Under 3,5 goals - 1,5 Units@1,15 (Betfair)

What do you think about England vs Wales 1-1 draw @8.1 Betfair? Bookies think the likelihood of this happening is 11.63% I beg to differ, England and Belgium are notorious underachivers in tournaments and are always way overpriced. There haven't been 0-0 draws in the group phases for 8 years. I see value taking 1-1, and maybe cover this with 2-1.

Just put say £200 on x2 @ 2.38 and put a £10-25 on almost every win you didn't cover and it's time!