froment

Hello, Mocas, welcome to the forum, and good luck with exchanges!
Answer to both of your questions is yes, it would work as you explained, Betfair matches your money at best available odds at the moment. I say Betfair, I don't know for other exchanges.
The same applies to the other side - if you place lay bet at odds of 3.80, and odds of 3.76 appear in the meantime, your bet will get matched at better odds, 3.76, in amount of money available at those odds.

If you believe you have an edge in finding those games, then simply lay correct score 1-0 and 0-1, it's easier.

@froment That is spot on 100% what i was looking for
Thanks very much, Hope members on here will now play with the settings and maybe leave some feedback on what they found to be a good setting to use 
 

Thanks for feedback! Yes, it is possible, but what is criteria for a selection? I have updated the spreadsheet, available in the same link above; it now has two additional columns, for last 4 and last 2 matches. You enter desired value, i.e., range of ELO ratings in sheet "Settings", and if difference in ratings fits into those values, it suggests home, draw or away team.
Is that what you had in your mind?

Thanks Froment job well done, Is it possible with the excel that it can highlight the ones for a selection to have a bet on
Cheers 

Brilliant Froment, thank you so much this will do the trick nicely. Once again, thank you
Ratso

Hey, @The Maximiser, @Ratso, do you want to export daily ELO ratings or ratings for individual leagues?
If it is daily ratings, I can offer help untill your request is resolved. Indeed, data can be copied only into single column, even when using web query within Excel, so I created a small workbook that parses data into a proper table. You can download it from here: https://rvasi.me/files/Punters-Lounge-parse-ELO-ratings.xlsx
Instructions are inside, and please note again, it works only for daily ratings, not for individual leagues, they appeared to be too stubborn... ?

I've always been a football man, but I find my judgment clouded at times by gut instinct, rather than what the stats say (I know stats aren't everything).
I'm a big fan of data analysis, and the patterns that they show, so I decided to apply them to a game I'm less up-to-date with, and that's Tennis.
I know the rules of tennis, the patterns of play, the fundamentals, but my knowledge of the actual players isn't great. I could probably name 50 of both genders combined, maximum.
Another thing that interests me about tennis betting is that there has to be a result. An underdog cannot play for a draw in tennis like they can in football. Football can have overwhelming domination by a favourite, yet finish 0-0. In Tennis, there has to be a result, therefore each set someone will reach at least 6 games (barring retirement).
I analysed all the match data from 2019, looking only at matches that completed.
1117 Men's matches, and 1016 Women's.
I'm an over/unders man, and a short odds gambler, so I am specifically looking at the number of games in the 2nd set. Looking at the 2nd set I find more consistent, because you can analyse the 1st set performance and take that into account. If someone was smashed 6-0 in the 1st set, then the likelihood of a 2nd set finishing 7-6 is a lot less than had the 1st set been much closer.
The specific market I'm looking at is Over 7.5 games in the 2nd set, so essentially the set finishing any score other than 6-0 or 6-1.
The data made quite interesting reading:
The total number of games having Over 7.5 in the 2nd Set:
Men's: 993/1117 - 88.9%
Women's: 829/1016 - 81.59%
Men's data breaks down further as follows:
Over 7.5, 2nd set, clay courts: 395/451 - 87.58%
Over 7.5, 2nd set, hard courts: 598/666 - 89.79%
and Women's:
Clay: 308/365 - 84.38%
Hard: 521/651 - 80.03%
So, on the face of this, it indicates that men's games on hard courts tend to be a lot closer than any other match type.
I then looked at taking the pre-match odds into consideration. I looked at matches where the favourite was priced 1.5 or shorter, and also looked at games where both players were priced between 1.50 - 2.50 (therefore, you'd imagine, closer matches).
Men's:
Under 1.5 Favourite, All Games: 512/586 Over 7.5 2nd set - 87.37%
Under 1.5 Favourite, Clay: 184/216 Over 7.5 2nd set - 85.19%
Under 1.5 Favourite, Hard: 328/370 Over 7.5 2nd set - 88.65%
1.5 - 2.5 Odds, All Games: 426/469 - 90.83% 
1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Clay: 187/208 - 89.90%
1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Hard: 239/261 - 91.57%
Women's:
Under 1.5 Favourite, All Games: 431/536 Over 7.5 2nd set - 80.41%
Under 1.5 Favourite, Clay: 146/179 Over 7.5 2nd set - 81.56%
Under 1.5 Favourite, Hard: 285/357 Over 7.5 2nd set - 79.83%
1.5 - 2.5 Odds, All Games: 354/429 - 82.52% 
1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Clay: 148/170 - 87.06%
1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Hard: 206/259 - 79.54%
Conclusions at this stage: Men's hard court matches with more even odds have a higher chance of going over 7.5 games in the 2nd set than any other conditions.
I then drilled down even further, to look at the chances of over 7.5 games in the 2nd set, depending on the number of games in the 1st set.
These are the highlights of the findings:
In men's matches, with odds 1.5-2.5, on Hard courts, and where the 1st set finished 7-6, there is a 93.75% chance of the next set having over 7.5 games. However, this is a fairly small field..
In men's matches, 1.5 - 2.5 odds, Hard courts, 1st set had 9+ games. 2nd set chance of over 7.5 is 91.41%. Although this is a decrease from the line above, it does have a larger field (it has occurred 199 times this year from a sample of 217 games).
Taking implied odds into account, 1.09 has implied probability of 91.74%, and 1.1 has implied odds of 90.91%, so any odds 1.1 or longer for over 7.5 2nd set games is value.
 
 
Hope this makes sense, I'll add more as I go.

Hi,
First of all I suggest you read the article ,Mugs and Millionaires.
It should confirm that gaining an edge in soccer betting (at least ) really is tough. And one of the reasons it’s tough is because companies like Star Lizard are helping to suck out much of the all important value.
But finding value is only part of the problem. Even if you are one of the few who can find it you still have to deal with the psychology.
Just because most of your selections are value wont prevent you going on a long losing run. And during that run you will begin to doubt thst your selections were in fact value . You will lose confidence . And without confidence that you’re betting value you won’t make much money .
Thus you need a technical edge and a psychological edge. Something very few people will ever have.
Personally I think thst betting on 90 minute soccer msrkets nowadays purely to make money is largely futile .
However most people who bet on soccer aren’t doing it to make money . They’re  doing it either because they like betting and they like football and/or because it’s so hard thst to be one of the very few who can do it ,if they ever can,makes them feel good.
 
Thats the bad news.
The good news is that the answer to your question is YES.
In fact not only can you get an edge in sports betting it’s not at all hard to get an edge.
However you need to only ever bet on long term msrkets.
They are far easier to beat and even better than thst the overwhelming majority of gamblers hardly touch them and never will.
 

Google just launched a new search engine, for databases  
Pretty cool if you want to crunch through more data, just search for 'betting odds' or related.
https://toolbox.google.com/datasetsearch/search?query=betting odds
 
 
 

@Kengur2017 to Punters Lounge.
I don't know if this will be useful to you or not but I have written down some things that are important to bear in mind if you want to take betting seriously:
 
Psychology
 
 
First of all, if you do not have the correct mentality then you will not be able to develop into a professional bettor.
‘Tilt’ or ‘Gambling rage’ is one of the first major obstacles that needs to be overcome if you are serious about betting. Tilt is a term usually associated with poker but it can apply to any form of betting:
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilt_(poker)
 
Tilt affects all people to some degree, some only suffer from it mildly and can completely eliminate it with a combination of changes to lifestyle and perspective. At the other end of the scale you have chronically impatient degenerates with no self discipline or perspective, the affects gambling has on these people can be highly destructive.   
 
Ask yourself: “Do I have self discipline? Can I take a loss or a string of losses and still retain my composure? Do I react to losses by making rash or impulsive bets?”.
 
Patience and self discipline are key factors if you wish to become a professional bettor. In my view any professional bettor does not see his or her line of work as a get rich quick scheme. Unless you luck out with some kind of crazy accumulator or long odds punt it will take time to build your bankroll.
 
Hurrying to reach the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow can be a toxic mentality. It’s great to visualise a better future for yourself and creating a plan to achieve that but wanting something and wanting it right now will not aid your quest.
 
Do you enjoy the process of becoming a professional bettor? If you really do not enjoy the process at all then why are you devoting your time and energy to it in the first place? Obviously the goal is to make money but you shouldn’t try to make money from something you really don’t like as it will inevitably compromise your ability to execute the process effectively.
 
You have to enjoy the process of getting there and you have to enjoy the process of learning. Never think you know it all, because believe me no-one does. The road to becoming a professional bettor is a constant process of learning and improving, the path is not smooth and chances are there will be setbacks.
 
If and when setbacks occur can you maintain your self discipline and motivation?
 
 
Bankroll Management
 
 
Obviously your betting bankroll needs to be completely segregated from all your other forms of expenditure. Your ability to pay the bills cannot be dependent on how well your betting career is doing – especially if you have a family.
 
Set aside only what you can afford to loose as your initial betting bankroll, then understand and accept that it cannot be used for anything other than betting.
 
Even if you have only set aside a relatively small amount of money for your initial bankroll you must still treat that money with respect. If you want to take betting seriously then a bet must never seem frivolous.
 
One of the first objectives of any serious bettor is to never go broke (loose their entire betting bankroll). The partitioning of your bankroll into individual bets must be sustainable.
 
A sensible way to grow your bankroll over the long term is through compounding:
 
http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/corporate-finance/3/discounted-cash-flow/compounding.aspx
 
Partition your results over quarterly or annual periods then incorporate the profits from the latest period into your staking structure.
 
For example:
 
You have an initial bankroll of $5000 which is divided into 40 individual fixed stake bets of $125 (2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 1 you make a profit of $1000 so total bankroll is now $6000.
 
Year 2 - Your fixed stake bet would be $150 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)
 
At the end of year 2 you make a profit of $1200 – total bankroll now $7200.
 
Year 3 - Fixed stake would be $180 (still 2.5% of total bankroll)… and so on and so on.
 
By using compounding you can exponentially grow your bankroll in a safe and sustainable way. It will require patience and discipline, especially to begin with, but if you are consistently profitable then I would advocate it as a good way to grow your bankroll.
 
Sustainability
 
 
 
 
When it comes to sustainability as a career, one of the main questions is “Where can I get my bets on?”. Bookmakers are no fools, if you are a consistently profitable bettor then sooner or later you will get limited or banned – nothing you can do as it’s in the terms and conditions you agree to in order to bet with them.
 
One way to negate this problem is to have accounts with lots of different bookmakers and rotate your bets. It’s generally a good idea to have accounts with different bookmakers as you want to take advantage of different offers and prices etc. Despite this, rotating your bets with different vendors could still be problematic in the long term if you are consistently profitable.
 
 
Betting exchanges is the way to go if you don’t want to get banned or limited. On an exchange you’re betting against other bettors with the exchange operating as the middle man who matches up both sides of a bet. The exchange makes its money from charging commission for each bet made, usually between 2-5% (very reasonable in my opinion).
 
The main problems you will face with an exchange are:
 
Does it have the market you wish to bet on?
 
Does the market you wish to bet on have enough liquidity to get your bet matched?
 
Your access to betting exchanges will vary depending on what country you live in. Some of the main ones are:
 
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/
 
https://www.matchbook.com/
 
https://www.pinnacle.com/
 
https://www.sbobet.com/
 
https://smarkets.com/
 
If you’re not sure on who to bet with then ask around on this forum and check bookmaker review sites. Always do your research on the various operators and keep appraised of how they’re progressing. If you want betting to become your business then you have a responsibility to follow the industry at large and pay attention to new developments.
 
Never leave excess money in an online account for longer than you have to. Your bank should be the safest place to store the core of your funds – distribute them to the various exchanges and bookmakers only when necessary. This will help minimise your exposure if an operator goes bust or they inexplicably transfer your funds to bongo bongo land.
 
 
Methodology
 
 
 
From reading your post I suspect this is the area you wish to learn most about. Personally I have no special system to offer you, no low risk to high reward strategy, no promises of gold and jewels untold.
 
The phrase ‘There’s a million ways to make a million dollars’ also applies to betting. The various methods and strategies you could adopt to become consistently profitable from betting are too varied and too numerous to catalogue in a single post.  
 
Ultimately betting is about finding errors in the pricing of an event. If you believe a market has priced something incorrectly you can take advantage of it. Generally speaking, sports betting markets are not stupid. They evaluate outcomes with efficiency but this does not mean they never make mistakes. Your job is to capitalise on those mistakes at every opportunity. This requires diligence and dedication, you must always be on the lookout for opportunities in the market.
 
The more knowledge you have on a sport / subject, the more you can spot the opportunities in the market when they present themselves.
 
Specialising in a particular sport will help you, it should be a sport that you like watching and can watch regularly in order to gain qualitative information:
 
https://www.simplypsychology.org/qualitative-quantitative.html
 
Preferably it will be a sports market which is covered by the betting exchanges with enough liquidity to match your bets.
 
Personally I believe it’s important to develop your own betting strategies rather than follow or rely on other peoples. What if you are following someone else’s betting strategy but you do not really understand it and that person then disappears? You probably wouldn’t have learnt much and would be back at square one. Someone may very well come along on this thread and say “Hey Kengur, I have a great betting system that you might want to follow” and it might indeed be a good system but if you can’t fathom what’s behind it then you’re not really going to advance as a bettor. If you want to be ‘professional’ at something you have to be independent and generate your own ideas. Never rely on others to spoon feed you as it’s not sustainable over the long term.
 
Punters Lounge is a great site in my opinion – use it. I have learnt a lot from seeing how other people do things over the years on here, there’s lots of useful information on these boards. Just don’t expect anyone to wave a magic wand and make you rich overnight – the world seldom works like that.

Wow, that's indeed a hell of a work, cheers, Paul, looks wonderful!
If I may suggest a further feature, in case you plan to develop it further: matches are sorted per league; it would be nice to have the ability to sort them per day, as well, i.e., to display all matches for a given day.

Thanks Vuko, it's been a journey for sure and not done just yet.  

Cool, I'll have a think and chat with designer.  Excellent suggestion, sometimes you overlook the obvious.  

Yes, that's what I meant, all matches that take place on a certain day. It could be available at main page, as you propose, but it also could have its own links, for example "All matches today", "All matches tomorrow", etc., similar to links that exist now for each league. So, visitor can choose either a league either a day.

Never read rules.
Thats my motto.
People who follow rules usually dont make much money in most fields.

Sooooo, we've been busy!  https://www.punterslounge.com/elo-football-ratings  

We'll get to designing the index page at some point soon, but you can see all leagues here and on the nav menu.
I'm off for a lie down... 

Just search in the app store for Punters Lounge and you can now have our very own app on iPhone.  We'll be working on a dedicated download page shortly and more prominence across PL. It's very similar to our mobile website so we remain consistent.
Google Play (Android) rarely allows betting related apps and has denied it on first glance, but we'll try to appeal and get it on there.
Direct Link to download APK File on Android is https://s3.amazonaws.com/gonativeio/static/588236c50352153306b7216e/app-release.apk  

@Djordje, you're back to the forum?!

Completely updated now, enjoy.  

Finally, the Premier League players database is up to date!
1. Check the players status. Goals scored, minutes played and much more. Just click on the player's name and will see what games played and what he did there.

2. In the Head to head section click on the "Players" tab to see more detailed statistics about each player, considering all the games or only home/away games. Easy to see here what importance has the player for his team.

 
3. In the Head to head section click on the "Lineups" if you want to drag and drop the players on the field in order to see how will look the next game. Each players is labeled to see easier what important is for the team.
 

 
 
 
 

+1 for the new layout, too - much cleaner and easier to read, and much faster!
Mobile version is awesome, finally easy to read on mobile! As you know, vB4 was not responsice, while vB5 was responsive, but it was just not really read-friendly.
Congratulations, guys, great job! :)

Well, I've tried from Firefox and Opera, and it works for me, I don't know then what to tell you. Hope I explained clear where to click, this:

Yes: click on the square that shows number of thanks, just on the right side of text "Thanks".

Can you see who has thanked you in a post !