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About moggis

  • Birthday 12/13/1960

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  1. Hi really sorry to take so long to reply . It’s definitely not stats based . I trade the markets and I myself put a lot of selections in my bets but I’d recommend 6-8 . Most of my selections really are blindingly obvious-either favourites or second favourites- and this really does work
  2. So sorry to reply only three years later ! I was on here trying to find a really good article about outright sports betting by someone with Blue in their name . The short answer is you should be betting on a variety of markets and build up a portfolio of positions. Also betting from preseason is too early in my opinion. Sorry once again 😀
  3. A Holy Grail of betting does in fact exist and it is quite simply to bet on outright markets in accumulators through the season . It really isn’t hard to learn and one of the great things about it is that even if you give it away on a forum no one listens .
  4. Not only is sports betting a learnable game , you can learn enough to be one a profitable bettor in just one year . However two years is a lot more likely . The very first thing to learn is that betting on short term markets of any kind really is a spectacularly stupid way of betting on sport for profit . Long term markets are way way easier to beat . But the OP is like most other gamblers he will ignore what I’ve written as he only wants to bet on short term markets or because he doesnt believe me . So really he’s asking are there any rules for betting on short term markets .
  5. By the way the thing that everyone should be thinking about is the answer to this question, Since we all know that long term markets have big overrounds and since it’s clear from the amount I laid out I must have placed a large number of bets (and I most certainly did ,a very large number ) and since I cashed out 100s and 100s of bets which we all know are poor value ,where on earth did the value come from ? I mean to say it’s virtually impossible for so many bets to have been value overall isn’t it ? And of course they were all placed with the same bookie so I wasn’t even looking for best prices . And the average number of selections per bet was 11 -12! So where did the value come from ? Somebody on this thread ridiculed me for saying (on another forum ) that the bets I do aren’t value even though they’re profitable. I stand by that remark . The overwhelming majority of the bets I place I have no doubt whatsoever aren’t value . And if that’s true it means that almost everything you read about betting is wrong doesn’t it? You don’t have to find value to make money . Only on short term markets . But surely that can’t be true can it ? All the mathematicians and know alls and experts think it isn’t . But I think they’re wrong . But if the bets weren’t value then how did I win ? Luck ? Well two years ago I missed out on a far higher amount because Doncaster lost their last four games and were 1-0 up at second bottom Hartlepool with 16 minutes to go on the last day of the season. So probably not luck . So who’s right ? If the experts are right then where’s the value ? While if I’m right you have to wonder why so many smart people could be so wrong and of course how I made a profit . But either way it’s interesting ,no ?
  6. Oh. Well the fact is that the best way for anyone to learn how to do this is to just do it! So long as the stakes are very low you simply can’t go very wrong . And that’s because this also happens to very very entertaining. So merely by dint of placing a dozen long term accumulators on various markets and on selections that are mainly low odds you are going to have an interest in a great many games. It will also make you notice how the results affect the long term prices in lots of markets . It really really is a huge pity that few people even think of placing accas on outright markets during the season. They are missing out on a great deal of entertainment . And at a time when gambling gets nothing but bad press . Well if you need to know something you can try asking on this thread I suppose . However the way I do this is certainly not the best way . This subject is so complex that I’ve barely scratched the surface.
  7. Oh yes ,now I’m banned*from bet 365 . And I’m absolutely gutted. Im totally bereft as their site is the second easiest (to skybet) to use for the bets I do and they also have the markets I require . And because this is a very straightforward season and I expected to win a lot in May but now all my bets can’t be hedged at all . Nor do I dare use friends to place bets on for me with them as it will be obvious . * well restricted to 30p for an accumulator not totally banned
  8. Oh wow. That comment has made my day Zico. I expected to be told that this must be doctored . In thst case let me point out that trying to win a million in a year is stupid . There are too many problems with limits on markets you want to bet on . But I felt I had to obtain overwhelming evidence that all the mathematicians and other experts are wrong if I was ever to succeed in getting across the very important message that betting singles on 90 minute markets really isn’t all it’s cracked up to be . And that at the very least those who do somehow make money from 90 minute market are simultaneously missing out by not betting on outright markets so their profit from 90 minute markets isn’t as good as they think . The secret Zico to what I do is that it really isn’t very hard ! (But if you’re only doing one or two bets it’s nearly impossible. I’m afraid you need to place quite a lot of bets usually) Many long term markets are surprisingly easy to trade and what people need to do is just take that on board and think about why that is . What weakness does a bookmaker have in long term markets ? The other thing is that they MUST be bet in multiples. Do not not listen to people who say they shouldn’t . Thanks once again. If you need any help by all means pm me .
  9. Hi, I dont know any details about Wimbledon but I do believe that relegation bets placed at this time of year are quite risky .
  10. Perhaps this might be the place to ask why it is that so few people bet on outright markets? I can understand why profitable short term gamblers might not want to tie up money but even people who aren’t profitable don’t seem interested .
  11. Oh I forgot. The OP says that he doesn’t believe there’s such a thing as bad luck in the long term ie it evens out . Im not 100% sure but I don’t believe that’s true. There are so many100s of millions of bettors that some are bound to be winning by pure chance even if theyve placed 10,000 bets.
  12. The nightingale system is the best system for most people. Only bet when you hear a nightingale singing . (Doesn’t need to be in Berkeley Square)
  13. A couple of things . Firstly I’m not too sure what the strategy is as I didn’t read the thread too carefully but I didn’t have a problem with most of the selections . In fact he was a bit unlucky with the Stoke Swansea one as the Swans had a lot of injuries. Anyway ,there’s little point in making a profit from the lesser known leagues because you will soon get restricted or banned by the bookies if you start betting higher stakes while betfair I assume won’t have the liquidity . Secondly I do wonder why anyone would ever give away exactly how they find value on a forum . Value in soccer markets is becoming more and more scarce and thus to share it seems the height of madness . Its even more strange when people have apparently worked hard to find it . Also ,in the case of Osters v Falkenborgs and not a few other selections it seems to me that if you asked 100 people to tip that match most would have gone for Falkenborgs anyway and so if you are testing a selection process or system etc you really should test it on games where the selection wouldn’t be made by any idiot . Having said all that the OP seems a lovely person who I’m sure will one day make a great husband and father (especially after he’s stopped betting).
  14. I would like to ask the OP why he bets on football at all? Surely that’s the first thing he should be asking. What made him decide that competing with millions of others to try to find ever decreasing value in the vague hope of possibly making a few thousand a year was a sensible thing to do.? One person on this very thread said they tried for seven years without success! Thats seven years spent actually working stuff out and spending time creating a ratings system or whatnot when they could have been doing something more useful. In my opinion ,and I have to say pretty much everything I’ve seen on gambling forums seems to back me up,trying to make money from 90 minute soccer markets is a form of madness . However there is good news . If you really must bet on soccer you should know that by far the easiest way to make a profit is to bet on outright markets in multiples during the season. Good luck
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