can we really gain an edge in soccer betting?

[real55555]

So the question is, can we punters ever get an edge on sports betting. I know we cannot gain any edge in casino betting because the edge is fixed in favour of the casino.

Through the years, I've tried and experimented about 20-30 systems in soccer/basketball betting and after looking at the results, the best i can get is about 55-60% win rate. Recently I've looked at the saved excel sheets which i did my trials, and start wondering, yes 55-60% win rate is an edge but an edge that will be chipped away by the odds offered by bookmakers. So say after 100 matches, if i win 55-60 of them at odds of 1.90, I'll just win 49.5-54 units only, in which if there are two matches that swing the other way, I'll be making a loss. 

Now I'm thinking maybe in-play betting has better value, but i'm not entirely sure.

Please offer your comments. Thanks.

[moggis]

Hi,

First of all I suggest you read the article ,Mugs and Millionaires.

It should confirm that gaining an edge in soccer betting (at least ) really is tough. And one of the reasons it’s tough is because companies like Star Lizard are helping to suck out much of the all important value.

But finding value is only part of the problem. Even if you are one of the few who can find it you still have to deal with the psychology.

Just because most of your selections are value wont prevent you going on a long losing run. And during that run you will begin to doubt thst your selections were in fact value . You will lose confidence . And without confidence that you’re betting value you won’t make much money .

Thus you need a technical edge and a psychological edge. Something very few people will ever have.

Personally I think thst betting on 90 minute soccer msrkets nowadays purely to make money is largely futile .

However most people who bet on soccer aren’t doing it to make money . They’re  doing it either because they like betting and they like football and/or because it’s so hard thst to be one of the very few who can do it ,if they ever can,makes them feel good.

 

Thats the bad news.

The good news is that the answer to your question is YES.

In fact not only can you get an edge in sports betting it’s not at all hard to get an edge.

However you need to only ever bet on long term msrkets.

They are far easier to beat and even better than thst the overwhelming majority of gamblers hardly touch them and never will.

 

Edited April 8, 2018 by moggis

[Dalan Quaice]

Many mathematicians , computer Programmer and statisticians have developed models that consistently bets the bookmakers. But the moment your account start making unreasonable profits they calls it. They either limit your staking amount or completely banned your account.

They employ the most sophisticated analyst, computer Programmer and data analysis professional to help build and monitor their system.

I have in the past build a robot that does analysis and login automatically and places bets for me without my intervention. When they discovered my account I was banned and flagged to other bookies. I could not open an account with other bookies. I have to use aliases of my friends.

 

Take a look at this academic research paper on how to gain an edge over the bookie. It worked 100% until he was dis covered and the account banned.

http://184.73.28.182/dashboard.php?page=2

Edited May 23, 2018 by Dalan Quaice
spell check

[Dalan Quaice]

Believe it, the 100% true odds is made available by all bookmakers one hour before kickoff. That shows the true odds. Some wait until 30 minutes. Bookmakers knows 98% chance of teams that will win. The remaining 2% is due to red card, penalty etc.

They use the most advanced xG calculations. Most manager these days uses xG to buy, sell and transfer players. xG, which stands for expected goals is the most advance statistical prediction for football and bookmakers have it.  If you are using poisson or any other strategy, that is good but it will not take you far. To me, the two most sophisticated strategy is

1. xG

2. ELO

 

Take a look of the xG strategy.

https://understat.com

[Timmy1515]

1 hour ago, Dalan Quaice said:

Believe it, the 100% true odds is made available by all bookmakers one hour before kickoff. That shows the true odds. Some wait until 30 minutes. Bookmakers knows 98% chance of teams that will win. The remaining 2% is due to red card, penalty etc.

They use the most advanced xG calculations. Most manager these days uses xG to buy, sell and transfer players. xG, which stands for expected goals is the most advance statistical prediction for football and bookmakers have it.  If you are using poisson or any other strategy, that is good but it will not take you far. To me, the two most sophisticated strategy is

1. xG

2. ELO

 

Take a look of the xG strategy.

https://understat.com

The bookmakers don't care who win's as long as the book is balanced. When Compiling odds they need to know where the money could be going. You don't see the odds the bookmakers set for long as the punters shape the market the odds you see at kick off are the odds the punters have made.

You say the bookmaker know 98% the time who will win ? they use overround to roughly around 6/7% to help it's very basic what they do to compile odds. Of course they need to be aware of info on team news that punters will see and use to make there selection. In many cases they will try to point punters in a direction to bet by tweeting out stats going on radio/T.V giving out who there BET OF THE WEEKEND is. 

But like I've send it's us the punters that make the odds move from looking at odds compiling in football for many years it amazes me how many punters bet. I'd say most do it for fun and bet on teams they think will win whatever the price they don't care about value.

I've been trying for a few years to crack the code I see many systems or predictors looking to predict the outcome of the game without using percentages & saying home away or draw. I have no idea what is the best way is maybe it is just predicting the outcome and betting teams who you think will win.

I for one have always looked for value by trying to give percentages to outcomes as I believe that what it should be betting when you think the price is to big or to low. But saying that if someone gives you 10/1 on heads in heads and tails and tails is flipped 10 in a row you would be very unlucky but 10 pts down and people will question if what you were doing is right.

myself and many other people will try to work towards a long term profitable system/project. Most fail and I will most likely be one of them as well but it won't stop me from trying. 

Even though I don't post much apart from in my thread I'm always reading the forum and very interested in what other people are doing so keep up all the good work people and hope one day we find what we are looking for.

[Data]

54 minutes ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:

The bookmakers don't care who win's as long as the book is balanced. When Compiling odds they need to know where the money could be going.

True up to a point, so long as the winnings aren't going disproportionately to an individual. Accountant led management dictates the firm can do without winning punters.  The only exception in my experience are the two UK based spread firms (NOT the Irish outfit who also only cater for losers)

My winning accounts are still active after more than 20 years. Okay, every bet I place is 'referred to trader' and occasionally (rather than usually) my stake is restricted or the quote shifted ~ but never a hint of account closure (and my total winnings are into six-figures)

54 minutes ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:

myself and many other people will try to work towards a long term profitable system/project. Most fail and I will most likely be one of them as well but it won't stop me from trying. 

Football is heavily analysed by possibly millions of people and consequently extremely difficult to crack. But like you it won't stop me trying either, I've not beaten the book over the long term, but I'm enjoying the research.

"Focus on the journey, not the destination. Joy is found not in finishing an activity but in doing it."

 

 

 

[moggis]

On 20/05/2018 at 7:55 PM, Data said:

True up to a point, so long as the winnings aren't going disproportionately to an individual. Accountant led management dictates the firm can do without winning punters.  The only exception in my experience are the two UK based spread firms (NOT the Irish outfit who also only cater for losers)

My winning accounts are still active after more than 20 years. Okay, every bet I place is 'referred to trader' and occasionally (rather than usually) my stake is restricted or the quote shifted ~ but never a hint of account closure (and my total winnings are into six-figures)

Football is heavily analysed by possibly millions of people and consequently extremely difficult to crack. But like you it won't stop me trying either, I've not beaten the book over the long term, but I'm enjoying the research.

"Focus on the journey, not the destination. Joy is found not in finishing an activity but in doing it."

 

 

 

I was about to congratulate you on being a successful soccer bettor following your first two paragraphs but then you seem to not be a profitable football bettor according to the third paragraph?

So I take it your 6 figure winnings ( I assume you meant profits ?) are on other sports ? I’m curious to know which sports and if it’s not too much trouble what it is about you that you think enabled you to win? I’m also surprised to see thst none of your accounts has been closed . 

Finally,I’m sorry to correct you but with respect you’re wrong to say football is hard to crack.

As I said earlier long term football markets are easy to beat.

 

edit it’s just occurred to me on rereading your post that the accounts you are referring to may be spread betting accounts . I’m not sure .

 

 

Edited May 23, 2018 by moggis

[Data]

22 hours ago, moggis said:

I was about to congratulate you on being a successful soccer bettor following your first two paragraphs but then you seem to not be a profitable football bettor according to the third paragraph? 

So I take it your 6 figure winnings ( I assume you meant profits ?) are on other sports ? I’m curious to know which sports and if it’s not too much trouble what it is about you that you think enabled you to win? I’m also surprised to see thst none of your accounts has been closed . 

My winnings were predominantly from horse racing daily markets.

I suppose my research allowed me a better idea of the outcomes. There are acquaintances who have won more money than I with spread betting and still have their accounts open. In my experience spread firms are much more tolerant than traditional bookies. For example I also had winning sports spread accounts with IGIndex, Spreadfair, City Index, etc., before they ceased operations, none of them were closed down.

The 'good times' were up to about 3 years ago, at which time it appeared the spread firms' improved their analysis and my edge was eroding. I took a 1 year sabbatical, but 'missed' the buzz and have been active again for the past couple of years. Much reduced stakes now though, and far fewer opportunities, over this time I'm just over 12K in front, but it's an enjoyable hobby!

 

22 hours ago, moggis said:

Finally,I’m sorry to correct you but with respect you’re wrong to say football is hard to crack.

As I said earlier long term football markets are easy to beat.

Apologies. I always think of football betting on a game by game basis and individual matches.

 

[ColinEryk]

Of course we can. You can start analyzing the teams yourself, follow the players. And you also need to find a good website where you don't cheat on money when you place a bet and win. I have been looking for a very long time for a site where you can bet on football and withdraw money and transfer it to a card. But unfortunately, I didn't find it. However, my best friend is also interested in betting, and showed me this site แทงบอลออนไลน์ . I decided that this is what I need. By the way, and on which sites do you bet on football, I would be very interested to hear your opinion on this And so good luck with your bets

Edited March 29, 2021 by ColinEryk

[DeclanCoull]

for sports it's cool)

[Bang on]

Can we gain an edge ? Of course.

Bookmakers have to price up hundreds of matches, we only have to find the ones they get wrong. This is unlikely to be the English Premier League as they do most of their work on it as it is the most popular. However, lower leagues are a different story ( I know a few odds compilers).

Always remember, WE DON'T HAVE TO BET until we find one that we like. personally, I would look at lower leagues, and a minimum price . 

[Wildgarden]

i seem to win small accas all the time on football just have to do research and the compounding does the work for me. think smaller odds are more likely to win long term where the stats pay. the bigger odds are more mug bets as less chance of coming off.

[Wildgarden]

On 5/20/2018 at 4:05 PM, Dalan Quaice said:

Many mathematicians , computer Programmer and statisticians have developed models that consistently bets the bookmakers. But the moment your account start making unreasonable profits they calls it. They either limit your staking amount or completely banned your account.

They employ the most sophisticated analyst, computer Programmer and data analysis professional to help build and monitor their system.

I have in the past build a robot that does analysis and login automatically and places bets for me without my intervention. When they discovered my account I was banned and flagged to other bookies. I could not open an account with other bookies. I have to use aliases of my friends.

 

Take a look at this academic research paper on how to gain an edge over the bookie. It worked 100% until he was dis covered and the account banned.

http://184.73.28.182/dashboard.php?page=2

why when u can use exchange unless u hit the extra premium charges and cant do on other exchnages? otherwise id be hitting shops if that much of edge lol as i do for my accas and horses when needed