Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Sou 2.10 - Blades Lad - win at 6/1 bog bet365
2 mile handicap chase
my selection mixes chases & hurdles with turf and AW on the flat
I'm not really sure he would get home in a 2 mile chase on most occasions but he has won one and this looks both a weak race and is a easy flat track which should help
There's a couple of old timers in the race who are near the top of the market but I don't think they can be relied on. The other fancied one usually runs over further and might struggle at this trip
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Kemp 2.35 - Mon Successeur - win at 9/4 bog betvictor
Grade 2 novice chase over 20 furlongs
My horse is a pretty experienced chaser to be still running in novice races having run in 7 already, won 3, second 3 times. He started early in those 4yo chases in France
Since coming here he's been running in handicaps and a 7 length win off 135 entitles him to a crack at grade company
Goes well RH, todays better ground should suit him and he's been freshened up with a break since a busy early campaign. Mainly though........he appears to be a good jumper and these Kempton fences will find any of his rivals who are not as proficient !
The Saint James is just about best off at the weights but he's made errors in both his chases
Cloonacool has also made errors in both his chases but does have conditions to suit today
Killala Quay looks outgunned in this company and appears to be not as good over fences as he was over sticks (won a grade 2 hurdle0. Hopefully he'll ensure a decent pace and test the jumping of the field.
Twelve Roses is a bit of an enigma.......looks classy and can deliver some good performance but he just tends to tail off as the season progresses and is probably best fresh. He's had a nice break of 3 months so could put up a good show
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I'm reading that your final horse didn't win so the win part of the bet was lost
What you had was a place treble.......payout would depend on the field sizes and whether each selection was a fifth or a quarter odds
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Brilliant again from BH, the Placepot King
have to wait for the payout to be declared but I reckon it's 4 winning lines ?
well done !.........
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I'm getting paranoid now about these 8 runner races and it cost me a EW collect this afternoon
I was waiting until the last minute to back Bindon Mill (see post above) in case there was a NR and a couple of minutes before the 'off'' the price collapsed from 12/1 to 7/1 so I gave up and didn't bother. Finished a neck 2nd.......
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1 hour ago, Trotter said:
Just on that theme.......the 2.10 at Warwick is my idea of a bad race for EW punting
There are 15 runners.......too many. Only 20% of the field will pay out EW !
......and you have 5 horses at 10/1 or under.......which I consider too short for EW betting but with 5 of them it's fairly likely they'll take all 3 places
Effectively you're taking on 5 horses.........
and 3 of the ones at under 10/1 fill the places !
a good race to leave alone if you're an EW punter
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Just on that theme.......the 2.10 at Warwick is my idea of a bad race for EW punting
There are 15 runners.......too many. Only 20% of the field will pay out EW !
......and you have 5 horses at 10/1 or under.......which I consider too short for EW betting but with 5 of them it's fairly likely they'll take all 3 places
Effectively you're taking on 5 horses.........
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Good luck with the placepot BH !
I couldn't find any decent EW shots today........the 3.20 at Exeter has a lovely 'shape' for an EW bet with 2 fancied ones and everything else at big prices.......BUT there's only 8 runners and you'd probably get stuffed with NR at some point before race-time
If 8 go to post then Bindon Mill at 12/1 looks the EW selection to go for - has already run OK at the track and didn't get home last time at Chepstow, drops back in trip today.
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They should bring in handicap chase sprints
Five furlongs, four fences, 20 runner fields..........sponsored by bookies to ensure 5 non runners
Lady jockeys only..........err, in bikinis
Whips with flashing lights
Races 15 minutes apart with cartoons between times
That should get the soccer crowd watching.........
- DanV89 and Jimmy2shoes
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4.25 Ex - Milansbar - win at 5/2 bog bet365
Novices handicap chase over 3 miles
My selection is an out and out stayer having won over further than this over hurdles. The stiff track and soft ground should make this a test of stamina and my fellow shouldn't be found wanting !
I also think the handicapper might have let him in lightly in his first handicap chase with a rating 4lbs less than his last winning mark over hurdles, which was less than a year ago
Ran pretty well last time in a small field at Newbury to finished 2nd to Out Sam who looks useful (and also well handicapped now)
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Oh geez........I don't believe it
Flick over for my Nap race to find one horse withdrawn at the start.........leaving 7........
This is the second time this has happened recently on my EW Nap selection so I think I'll just avoid races with 10 runners or less in future.......
as it happens my horse finished 5th so it wouldn't have mattered this time
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Bonne Question backed late into 16/1 and finished 3rd
Ebadani was in the front line most of the way but finished weakly and dropped back
BH's picks finish 1st and 2nd........
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Good luck with the Placepot BH !
I loked at a couple of races last night looking for EW shots
In the 1.45 at Huntingdon I picked out a couple of lightly raced ones who might improve on what they had achieved so far - Ebadani (now 10/1) and Bonne Question (now 25/1). Ebadani was much bigger odds last night although one of the fancied ones is a non runner which might have affected the odds.
The other race I looked at was the 2.25 at Sedge and I went for Fibre Optic (now 16/1) - see my Nap of the Day entry
I'm struggling when I try and pick winners so I'm having a few days looking for EW shots to get a better chance of not losing !
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oops sorry........I thought I was looking at the new one..........
getting senile........
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Aww BH........you missed my 20/1 EW 3rd ........Dor's Law at Kemp, 6.10
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Sedge 2.25 - Fibre Optic - EW at 16/1 bet365
Novice hurdle
My selection had some fair form on the flat for Luca Cumani and was rated in the high 70s. He didn't manage a win but finished 2nd in a maiden and in a Newmarket handicap.
Pulled up on hurdle debut when bled from the nose but put in a decent effort 2nd time out, finished 3rd at Wetherby behind a couple of short priced ones. Could come on for that run and the stable is in good form with 3 winners from last 6 runs
As a 4yo he gets a handy weight allowance and has a useful claimer up taking off another 8lbs (the claimer has won 2 and had a 2nd from his last 4 rides)
My main concern is the 8 runner field.........I don't want to get stuffed with a NR reducing it to 2 place. And the one I've got in reserve runs before this race so I hope they declare early if there's a NR........give me a chance to change it !
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6.10 Kemp - Dor's Law - EW at 16/1 bog wm hill
Mile maiden with 10 runners still in (one early NR). Let's hope 8 go to post !
My horse has had a run over 7F at Lingers and showed some ability.......mssed the break, caught up, sat in midfield, chased the eventual placed horses to finish 4th
Should be suited by the extra furlong and stiffer track and gets all the allowances as a 3yo filly
Hopefully come on for the run and be in amongst them. The current favourite has already had 4 goes in maidens and was beaten at well odds on last time and a couple of the other ones ahead of mine in the market are making racecourse debuts
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Well done BH !
For some reason I'd thought you'd gone down when your nap didn't win the first leg........I keep forgetting it's 'places' even in these small fields
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Weth 3.50 - Big Jim - win at 13/8 bog wm hill
Novices handicap chase over 2 miles
Can't get too excited about anything today so I'm just going for the favourite in the novices handicap
He won pretty well last time out when dropped to today's distance and adopting front running tactics. Hopefully can repeat the run today and i think the long home straight at Wetherby should suit horses who stay a bit further, Drops in class and I'm slighty woried that he might be one of those horses that is better in higher grades carrying lower weights
Main rival appears to be Quick Decisson who keeps plugging on to be placed at various distances behind the winner. Ones of his better uns last time but you suspect the handicapper has got home
Retrieve the Stick looks OK but is prone to jumping errors. Probably the main danger with a clear round
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Captain Cat hasn't been declared for the Winter Derby.........he's running at Kempton on Wednesday night
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Good luck BH !
Shame about the non runner in the first (2.00pm, Novice Hurdle, 19F) because it means we're down to 7 and only 2 places available
On the other hand it does mean that the outsiders are much bigger prices because the bookies are not as worried about the EW liabilities
We have 2 short priced ones and the other 5 all over 20/1. I think both of the short priced ones can be taken on although realistically you'd expect one of them to perform.
Howaboutnever is dropping back nearly a mile in trip after winning a handicap then being well beaten in a much better race. The stiff track might negate the drop in trip and he acts on heavy. I fancy him more than the odds on favourite, Fion Mac Cul, who was all out to win a novice at Taunton on the nod then was pretty well beaten under the penalty which he carries again today. The horse that finished upside him at Taunton was also fairly well beaten next time, so his form is ordinary
I'll take a chance on one of the outsiders.......only had 1 run under rules, a bumper here at Carlisle where he tracked the leaders, got a bit outpaced, ran on again up the hill and weakened near the finish. Today is his second run and I'm hoping he can build on that initial promise and with some natural improvemnt for the first run might be able to get amongst the two market leaders
Carl 2.00 - Baby Ticker - EW at 33/1 bog wm hill
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4.10 Carl - Tipsy Dara - win at 5/1 bog betvictor
Handicap chase over 20F
My selection is a bit of a veteran now but he does handle heavy ground and his last 4 wins have been on Heavy
He also appears to be at home on stiff tracks as he's won here at Carlisle and at Hexham twice.
He's had 2 runs since coming back from two and a half years off the track. Pulled up on reappearance then finished 3rd of ten next time. Hopefully he'll have come on for those two runs and be ready to give a good showing now. Well handicapped on old form as his last 3 wins were off higher marks than today and the Alexander stable is in quite good form (and fortunately Lucy isn't riding it !)
All the others runners have question marks over the ground and/or the track
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Sunday Racing -
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Good luck with the Placepot BH !
Just looking at 'Past Winners' for the National Spirit at Fontwell and was reminded of Lough Derg who won it in 2008 and 2009. What a terrific horse he was !
Galloping them into the ground at Ascot in those long distance grade races.......