Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Good luck with the PP BH !
Bit of a bummer with Kelso abandoned and lots of NR at Donny........I wasted a good hour or more on my Cup selections last night......
The Grimthorpe has cut up now to 6 runners which negates it's value as a Grand National Trial and all the races on the card now have 7 or fewer runners
Newbury's card has held up OK with all races having 9 or more runners at the moment........the features are the Geatwood Gold Cup and the Class 2 Veterans Chase.
Good card at Lingfield on the AW featuring a Listed 7f race with 5 runners rated over 100.......and 45K prize money !. Put up the money and the horses will turn up on the AW. There's also a couple of Class 2 handicaps
Run of the mill meetings at Stratford and Gowran Park
I find it impossible to get excited by Meydan and I rarely watch any of it bit if it's your thing there's a cracking meeting there today chock full of Group races and with lots of British or former British runners including the likes of Rich Tapestry, Sole Power, Jungle cat, Goldream, Postponed and Tryster
..........and apparently RUK is having a 'free to air' weekend on Virgin Media (channel 536)
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Donc 2.00 - Yorkist - win at 7/2 bog wm hill
Donc 2.35 - Waterclock - win at 10/3 bog wm hill
Donc 3.45 - The Last Samuri - win at 11/4 bog wm hill
res
Donc 3.10 - Yes I did - win at 9/4 bog PP
Donc 4.20 - Cracked rear View - win at 5/6 bog wm hill
Good luck all !..........
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14 hours ago, Trotter said:
With Kelso abandoned and lots of non runners at Donny I'm just going to scrap this and start again.........
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3.15 Kelso - Le prezien - win at 15/8 bog bet365
4.20 Donc - Cracked rear view - win at 6/4 bog bet365
4.55 Donc - Rocklim - win at 5/2 bog wm hill
res
2.40 kelso - Morning royalty - win at 6/4 bog wm hill
3.50 Kelso - Many Clouds - win at 4/7 bog wm hill
good luck all !
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Some Kind of Lama finishes 3rd at 33/1..............obviously I pick the wrong one of my two for Nap of the Day........
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Not much else appeals on the EW front
I avoid handicaps and races with 8 or less runners so the only other race I looked at is the 2.50 at Newbury
This race does have a good 'shape' for EW with 3 horses in single figure odds and everything else at EW prices
I don't think it's impossible that one or two of the bigger priced ones will gatecrash the places but none of them stand out. There's a Nicholls newcomer at 14/1 but you'd think he'd be shorter if he'd shown much at home.
The one that slightly appeals is 'Some Kinda Lama' at 33/1 - he finished 2nd to a decent one in his only Point run then ran with some promise before tiring on his hurdles debut 8 months later. Had another break now and might be better than that last run
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I'm still trying to get some EW winners.........not very successfully I might add although I've had a few placed in the last few weeks
Today I'm having a go on the AW and a not huge priced one
from Nap of the day.......
Ling 2.30 - Mon Petite Etoile - EW at 14/1 bog bet365
Mile maiden for 3yo fillies
The market leader here comes from the Hannon yard and had probably put up the most promising display of those that have run with a good performance in a decent looking race on her debut. However that was 268 days ago and she hasn't run since which suggests there might have been problems with her
The 2nd and 3rd favourites have had 7 and 8 runs respectively which can't be a good sign........if you're still a maiden after 8 goes the likelihood is that you're not much kop. I reckon half decent ones should win their maiden by their 3rd run at the latest.......first run for experience, 2nd run in a decent race,, 3rd run dropped in class
So I'm looking at the first two newcomers in the betting.......and I've plumped for Elsworth's horse over Hughes's because Elsworth's last 2 runners in Lingfield maidens have finished 1st and 2nd whereas Hughsie's wins have been coming in handicaps. She's also slightly better drawn
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Ling 2.30 - Mon Petite Etoile - EW at 14/1 bog bet365
Mile maiden for 3yo fillies
The market leader here comes from the Hannon yard and had probably put up the most promising display of those that have run with a good performance in a decent looking race on her debut. However that was 268 days ago and she hasn't run since which suggests there might have been problems with her
The 2nd and 3rd favourites have had 7 and 8 runs respectively which can't be a good sign........if you're still a maiden after 8 goes the likelihood is that you're not much kop. I reckon half decent ones should win their maiden by their 3rd run at the latest.......first run for experience, 2nd run in a decent race,, 3rd run dropped in class
So I'm looking at the first two newcomers in the betting.......and I've plumped for Elsworth's horse over Hughes's because Elsworth's last 2 runners in Lingfield maidens have finished 1st and 2nd whereas Hughsie's wins have been coming in handicaps. She's also slightly better drawn
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Ha !
Cool Silk Boy 3rd, Jess 4th
ain't it always the case !
well done Richard !.........
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Haven't had much of a look as I hadn't noticed the 5 furlong handicap at Southwell until a few minutes ago......
But in the hope that the old draw bias is coming into play I'd go for Jess EW at 12/1
Drawn in 1, won over 5F at ling two starts ago and didn't seem t get home over 6F last time, now back to 5F
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The big racing story today will likely happen in the House of Commons where the Government is expected to announce it's policy on the future of the Levy
(the whispers are that it doesn't have a future and will be abolished to be replaced by a funding system that won't involve the government getting dragged in every year to referee it)
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Taunton 2.40 - Late Shipment - EW at 33/1 bog bet365
Novice hurdle
My selection was trained by Mark Johnston on the flat in 2014 and won a couple of races, reaching a mark in the 80s
Was treading water last year with Jamie Osborne........his best run being the only occasion on which he encountered soft ground which is encouraging
Began his hurdling career in January with a 7th at Ludlow where he was up there until 2 out then didn't appear to get home over a longer trip on heavy ground
Today's less testing conditions could suit and he's unexposed as a hurdler so hopefully he'll be in contention in what doesn't look to be a strong race
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Well done again BH !........4 winning lines ?
payout of 12 x stake per line.........
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Well.......that was much better from Vicky Pendleton !
No hanging around at the back.......she took the bull by the horns, led from the start, made all, jumped well, won with lots in hand
Much more professional performance !
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Winc 3.20 - Never Complain - win at 7/1 bog wm hill
Hunter Chase
The Vicky Pendleton show rolls into Wincanton today. Her horse is one of the two market leaders but you have to have doubts as to whether she'll actually put him in the race until it's too late or whether she'll be happy to ride around at the back and try to get home.
The other fancied one is grand old horse, Big Fella Thanks. It's probable that he's been laid out for this having won it last year but he's now 14 and practically ground to a halt on his comeback run a month ago. He finished 2nd but fell over the line after tiring badly in the closing stages. Last year he was beaten under a length in a Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham before winning this so on the face og it he doesn't appear to be anywhere near the same level tis year unless they've worked miracles with him at home in the last month
So with doubts about the front 2 I'm going for one of the others
My selection is still a young horse and finished placed in his last 2 chases in Ireland in October last year. Since then he's been placed in 2 PtPs over here during the winter. This appears to be his ideal trip and he acts with cut in the ground. Apart from the top two the only other one with a higher OR is also a 14 year old so I'm hoping the younger legs will make up for a few pounds in the weights and measures
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Interesting race at 2.50 at Leicester, taking on board what BH said above
In a low grade 20 furlong handicap chase with only 5 left in there are 3 last time out winners
Some Finish is favourite and he won over CD last time. Up until then he had looked poor so his favouritism would appear to result from the thought that he's 'turned a corner'. I'm inclined to oppose him on the basis that his win was out of keeping with the rest of his form and it's just as likely that he'll now revert to the norm. The headgear might not work on 3rd use, he's up in the weights and a sloppy jumper
Second favourite is Global Dream and I'll oppose him as well. He's won his last 2, both here, over hurdles then fences but both at the minimum trip. Although he has run over further and been placed he hasn't looked as though he gets home when his rather limited stamina is stretched. At this trip today on soft ground and a fairly stiff track I just don't think he'll get home
The one that interests me is Bredon Hill Lad who won at Towcester last time. He's up in the weights as well of course but conditions look fine. He runs over a variety of trips but an interesting point is that the last 5 times he's run over this intermediate distance he's won. He's lost on all the intervening races over 2 miles or 3 miles
Given what BH said about avoiding betting at Leicester because of the crappy nature of the track maybe one for a small interest ?
Bredon Hill Lad, 2.50 Leics, 7/2 bog Ladbrokes
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Catt 3.00 - Coniston Gold - EW at 16/1 bog wm hill
Maiden hurdle
Going for an EW punt on a newcomer here making his racecourse debut in a weak looking maiden hurdle. Wouldn't have to be anything special to get involved
Comes with a nice jumping family, his dam won over hurdles and fences, and is a half brother to bumper, hurdle and chase winners
As the only 4yo in the race he gets a handy weight allowance and the claimer takes off another 3
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Cheers BH
looks like I might be the only person who's posted every day...........
blimey.........I need to get a life ........
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Good stuff jimmy !......
hard luck Arsenal .......that's a decent total you got !
Thanks as always to BH.........
- arsenalfh and Jimmy2shoes
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well done Jimmy !........
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10 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
Nice one Trotter, unlucky Richard
Pot pays a massive £5 so a wee profit
well done BH.......I didn't follow it today as I've been busy with work
might be a small profit but it keeps you ahead for the month !
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2 hours ago, Trotter said:
Good luck with the PP BH !
The two runner novice chase at Ayr (1.40) looks interesting
The odds on favourite is making her chase debut and is up against a gelding for the first time in her career after 15 runs in Mares Only company
She looks a right stayer and is dropping to 15 and a half furlongs today
She looks best going RH and is going LH today.
She's had one run here over hurdles. That was over 21 furlongs where she got outpaced in the finish. I really can't see her being suited by the minimum trip
Her only rival, Captain Cox, is a two miler who has won here over hurdles. He's a bit of an iffy jumper to be fair but these are not stiff fences
I think it could be worth taking on the hotpot........there's only 2 runners and Captain Cox is currently 7/4 against an 8/15 favourite
Odds on Fav falls at the first fence
Candy from a baby.........
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Good luck with the PP BH !
The two runner novice chase at Ayr (1.40) looks interesting
The odds on favourite is making her chase debut and is up against a gelding for the first time in her career after 15 runs in Mares Only company
She looks a right stayer and is dropping to 15 and a half furlongs today
She looks best going RH and is going LH today.
She's had one run here over hurdles. That was over 21 furlongs where she got outpaced in the finish. I really can't see her being suited by the minimum trip
Her only rival, Captain Cox, is a two miler who has won here over hurdles. He's a bit of an iffy jumper to be fair but these are not stiff fences
I think it could be worth taking on the hotpot........there's only 2 runners and Captain Cox is currently 7/4 against an 8/15 favourite
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2.10 Ayr - Ange des Malberaux - ew at 66/1 bog skybet
Maiden hurdle
Got a well odds on favourite here who should win for the Skelton yard, but you never know, he might fall or get brought down or refuse at the start etc...........
My horse didn't show much last time but that was his hurdling debut after 9 months off the track. Entitled to come on a bit for the run and this looks a poor race outside of the favourite.
Something is going to finish in the places at big odds so I'm taking a punt on one that's lightly raced over sticks
Monthly Naps Comp, ''Saturday'' 5th March 2016
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
2.00 Donc - Pearls legend - win at 3/1 bog wm hill
Handicap chase over 2 miles
My horse disappointed last time when he didn't appear to get home on heavy ground.
Prior to that he'd won a better race than this at Cheltenham
He's a very consistant horse having finished in the first 3 in 21 of his 30 runs so hopefully he'll get back on track today against a few runners with questions to answer as to current form.
Yorkist might be the main danger but he's not won for some time and been unable to take advantage of a falling mark, now he's gone back up 3lbs for finishing 2nd last time