Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Ponty 2.10 - Dusker - win at 13/8 bog Corals
2yo maiden
Even at 5f this should be a stiff test for early season two year olds........very stiff track and soft ground
I've picked out the two who appear to have most stamina and one of the two is the favourite who's already had a run and comes from the Johnson yard. he's well bred and has soft ground winners in the family. He's got to be the selection even tho' you half expect any Johnstom2yo that's any good will win first time out and he didn't........that's obviously a worry but presumably even Johnston will have some horses that need a run
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5 meetings today plus 1 in Ireland..........seems like an awful lot for a Monday
and I still can't find anything that might win !.........
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4.40 Winc - Comical red - win at 25/1 bog skybet
Handicap chase
Taking a bit of a flyer here on an outsider as I don't think the short priced favourite will get the trip and the most likely winner, Railway Storm, might want better ground
My horse is well handicapped on his hurdles form having won off 12lbs higher a year ago. He usually runs poorly but pops up once a year to win. The rest of the time he tends to well beat or pulls up. When he won last year around this time his previous few runs had been - beat 45L, PU, beat 33L, PU, UR, PU, PU.........looks a bit similar to this years form !
He acts on the ground, is at home front running on sharp tracks, has won RH........he was leading last time until 3 out and the time before he ran OK to be beaten only 16L
If the favourite doesn't stay this is wide open !
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Ayr 4.10 - Tour des Champs - ew at 33/1 bog wm hill
Scottish National
I fancy having a runner in the big race for a change........I usually ignore huge field handicaps as too much of an effort to look at !
My horse is a thorough stayer who romped home in the Sussex National a few weeks ago then found everything happening a bit quick for him on good ground at Newbury though he was staying on well at the end
Conditions and trip should suit and he represents the Twiston-Davis yard who appear to have the Midas touch at the moment
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Ayr 4.15 - Monbeg River - win at 9/4 bog PP
Handicap chase of just under 2 mles, class 3
My horse has been improving quite rapidly since going chasing this season and has gone up 22lbs in the weights
Finished 2nd last time after a 4 month mid season break and with that run under his belt can resume progress. He's a CD winner who seems to act on any going
He's currently joint favourite with Notnowsam but I reckon that one is an iffy stayer and might be best on better ground on a sharp track
Silk Hall is a maiden over fences at 10 years old and after 8 runs. He's flat bred and might not be a natural chaser.......he also appears to be in decline and hasn't won for nearly 3 years. On his hurdle form he'd have a good chance but he's risky
The other two might find this a bit sharp
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3.55 Newm - Coulsty - ew at 12/1 bog bet365
Group 3 sprint over 6F
My horse has won at this level before and acts with cut in the ground. Arguably might be better over a furlong or so further but the uphill finish and slow ground could bring stamina into play
He's won on seasonal debut in each of the last 3 seasons so this could be the day to catch him
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4.30 Newm - Tullius - win at 7/1 bog wm hill
Group 3 over 9 furlongs
My horse is a dual group 2 winner who escapes a penalty under the race conditions.
He's a CD winner and acts on any ground
He's had a couple of runs, one on the AW and one over in France so should be race fit and ready to rock n roll
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Good to see the Craven Meeting back to 3 days !
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Ex 1.50 - Glengra - ew at 66/1 bog wm hill
Novice hurdle
Could be a chance for one of the outsiders to get involved here with the two market leaders carrying penalties but both of them having suffered a few defeats
My selection is having his second run under rules after being placed in his last 3 points
Last time he was well beaten in a novice hurdle at Warwick but the Post report suggested that he showed some promise despite hanging right throughout
With that run behind him (his first outing for over a year) he might come on some and be better suited by this right hand track
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2.40 Kel - Uno Valorosa - win at 9/2 bog PP
handicap chase
banking on the favourite finding this trip a bit too sharp on drying ground and looking at the other there's a few iffy jumpers and a couple that might need the outing after breaks
My selection has had nearly 2 months off but has won twice coming back from breaks and appears to go well fresh. He's a CD winner.
His mark looks OK as he's was twice narrowly beaten off it back in January, under 2 lengths both times.
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MR 3.20 - Coozan George - win at 2/1 bog wm hill
handicap chase
my selection is fairly lightly raced having had only 2 starts over fences, finished 3rd both times with a bit of sloppy jumping
last time out was over this Cd and looked a better race than today. hopefully his jumping will be improving with experience in which case his handicap mark looks inviting.
the current favourite, Midnight Chorister, won last time out but seems better on left hand tracks and on better ground
Discay looks a flat bred type and might not be a natural jumper and Sir Pitt might be OK but has PU and fallen in his two chase starts and is another who might be better kept to hurdles
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well done guys !
have we ever had a tie in one of these before, can't remember it.......
thanks to BH for running the comp
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Chep 4.40 - Waldorf salad - win at 2/1 bog bet365
Handicap chase over around 3 miles
This looks like a 2 horse race on paper and I'm taking on the odds-on favourite Alternatif
My selection has been running in better races and appears to act fine on undulating tracks and soft ground
The favourite might just not be as suited by a test of stamina.......he's won at the trip but it was at a tight track and he seems to run best on flat or tight tracks.
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1.45 - Childrens List
2.25 - Flying Angel
3.00 - The Game changer
3.40 - Prince of Scars
4.20 - Cloudy too
5.15 - Holywell
6.10 - Boite
Good luck everyone !
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Newc 4.25 - Un Noble - win at 3/1 bog PP
handicap chase of around 20F
With the current top two in the market bot dropping back in trip (doesn't appear likely to suit either) and Alderbrook Lad probably unsuited by soft ground this could be a match between my selection and Presenting junior. The latter seems to save his best for Ayr
My selection pulled up when sent over to Ireland last time but previously had won two races. Has won at the track, this appears to be his trip and acts on the going.
If he's got over his trip to Ireland he should have a good chance to get back on track here
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1.40: Theinval
2.15: Agrapart
2.50: Otaga trail
3.25: Vibrato Valtat
4.05: Cocktails at Dawn
4.40: Duke des Champs
5.15: Battleford
good luck !
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1 hour ago, Trotter said:
1.50 Sou - Reg Mohican - EW at 33/1 bog bet365
2yo maiden
My selection has the benefit of a run having finished 6th on debut
The winner that day won by 9 lengths so if you take him out my selection finished 6 lengths behind the 2nd. The 2nd has won next time out and the 3d has run well to finish a close up 2nd.......shows the benefit of having had a run
Got a decent draw in 4 and Luke Morris takes over from the lady apprentice
I wonder where Reg came from !.......
that's Red Mohican
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1.50 Sou - Reg Mohican - EW at 33/1 bog bet365
2yo maiden
My selection has the benefit of a run having finished 6th on debut
The winner that day won by 9 lengths so if you take him out my selection finished 6 lengths behind the 2nd. The 2nd has won next time out and the 3d has run well to finish a close up 2nd.......shows the benefit of having had a run
Got a decent draw in 4 and Luke Morris takes over from the lady apprentice
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- 1.40 : L'ami serge
- 2.15: Ivanovich Gorbatov
- 2.50: Cue Card
- 3.25: Annie Power
- 4.05: On The fringe
- 4.40: Minella Present
- 5.15: Augusta Kate
good luck everyone !
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Nott 3.20 - Poyle Vinnie - win at 6/5 bog corals
Conditions sprint
My selection has quite a lot in hand on official figures, acts on the going and should be OK at the minimum trip on soft ground
The doubt is that it's his first run of the year and he has no record of going well fresh. A couple of the other do go well fresh but are inferior horses
Just hoping that mine is forward enough to take advantage
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Lud 3.25 - Unbuckled - win at 9/4 bog PP
Mares novice hurdle over 21F
My selection finished a close up 2nd here in a class 3 handicap over 2 miles, staying on well at the finish. This extra distance should suit on paper and the ground looks ideal as she disappointed on soft ground. She knows how to win having earned 3 successes from seven starts under rules
The current favourite, Brise Vendeene keeps finishing 2nd and 3rd (8 times from 9 runs) and looks one paced and could be vulnerable.
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phew...........
I might look to this strategy a bit more often where you have two 'obvious' ones that are both odds against
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For the first time in my life I've backed 2 horses in the same race today
2.50 Ling.......a seller with only 5 runners and the two market leaders at 7/4 and 11/4. They look to have the race between them
I've backed both of them with equal stakes.......if either win I'll show a profit.
If anything else wins I've learned a valuable lesson........
Racing Monday 18th april
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Ponty 2.10 - Dusker - win at 13/8 bog Corals
2yo maiden
Even at 5f this should be a stiff test for early season two year olds........very stiff track and soft ground
I've picked out the two who appear to have most stamina and one of the two is the favourite who's already had a run and comes from the Johnson yard. he's well bred and has soft ground winners in the family. He's got to be the selection even tho' you half expect any Johnstom2yo that's any good will win first time out and he didn't........that's obviously a worry but presumably even Johnston will have some horses that need a run
The other that has a bit of stamina above the others is Trois Bon Amis fro the Easterby yard who's available currently at 11/1.......could have an EW shot but I reckon he should really be about 33/1 to be of interest