Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Ponty 3.10 - Spirit raiser - win at 4/1 bog wm hill
Listed race for fillies and mares over 1 mile
Although this is Listed there's very little, if any, Listed or group form.......all of the viable ones have recorded handicap wins and failed to win when upped in grade
So I've been looking at their handicap wins and my selection comes out top having won off 98 whereas most of the others won off marks in the 80s. If this was a handicap based on last winning mark my horse would be giving weight to the others !
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Worc 4.40 - Destiny's Gold - win at 5/2 bog wm hill
Maiden hurdle
Quite a big field here but a lot of them look like no hopers
My selection has ben running 3rd and 4th in handicaps last twice with some of the horses around him winning next time. He looks badly handicapped off marks around 115-120 and can't seem to overcome that mark but this looks easier than a regular class 4 handicap and looks like he has a decent chance of scoring his first win
Ground, trip and track look fine
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3.40 MR - One More Go - win at 9/4 bog bet365
Novice hurdle
My horse was pretty decent on the flat, won 3 handicaps off marks up to 82 and he won his hurdle maiden on his 2nd run over the sticks last time out. The form of that win is already working with the 2nd scooting home by 12 lengths next and the horse in 4th, beaten 39 lengths, also won next time out. Looks well suited by good ground and has won on RH tracks
The favourite is Henderson's runner, Only For Love, who's going for a 4 timer. All 3 of those wins have been in Mares races and the form doesn't look as good although she did win easily. Has only run once on a RH track and the Post noted that she didn't handle the bend which is a bit off-putting on this sharp RH track.
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4.20 Sand - Pallasator - win at 7/1 bog wm hill
Stayers listed race
My horse is a quirky old character who often plays up at the start but he's talented and looks to have a lot going for him today
He's the top rated of these and his latest wins have been in Listed, group 2 and group 3 races so he should be well up to winning this
Acts on any going and is a CD winner
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Sand 1.25 - London Protocol - EW at 10/1 bog Skybet
Sand 2.00 - Log Out Island - ew at 8/1 betvictor
Hayd 2.15 - Fireglow - ew at 9/1 biog betvictor
res
Sand 3.45 - My Dream Boat - win at 11/2 bog betvictor
Hayd 4.00 Glen Moss - win at 9/4 bog bet365
Good luck everyone !........
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yeah, welcome back Jimmy..........
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Donc 2.30 - Stanley - win at 8/1 bog wm hill
Maiden for older horses
In general it pays to stick with the 3yos in these older horse maidens because any horse that's still a maiden at 4 or 5 probably isn't much good or has had problems
My horse is a 3yo from the Cumani yard. Nicely bred son of Sea The Stars out of a Dubawi mare.......lots of stamina there for the 12 furlong trip
He's had one run and finished 4th in a Sandown maiden behind 3 horses from big yards. The 5th and 6th have run again since, one winning and one beaten a head. My horse looks sure to be suited by the extra 2 furlongs today
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14 hours ago, BillyHills said:2 hours ago, Trotter said:
Oh bummer BH........I was just going to post that one 'cos I only need a few pence to finish the month in profit.........
.........and now it's a Non Runner !........
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Hayd 4.00- Bear Valley - win at 7/4 bog wm hill
Bear Valley was coltish (means he had a hard on !) and green on debut but was only narrowly beaten after having to be switched and running on again late. With a slight drop in tri and Joe Fanning up I think he'll probably adopt different tactics today and get out in front and try to run the legs off them........he looks to have plenty of stamina
Bacchus is currently favourite after finishing 5th in a Newbury maiden, which are usually decent form.......he should also improve for that debut run but he did fade a bit towards the finish there over slightly shorter on better ground so I'm not sure todays trip on soft ground will suit him
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11 hours ago, BillyHills said:
Oh bummer BH........I was just going to post that one 'cos I only need a few pence to finish the month in profit.........
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2.10 Perth - Kitty Fisher - EW at 66/1 bog bet365
Novice hurdle
Fairly typical here with a couple of horses dominating the market and everything else at big prices several of which will shorten drastically as the race approaches and the bookies worry about the EW bets
Looking at the outsiders I think mine is as good as any of them and being a mare with an apprentice jockey is getting lots of weight. Has run OK up to a point in her last bumper and first novice hurdle. The Post noted that she made a satisfactory debut over the sticks and should improve with experience so there looks to be some ability there
probably aiming for 3rd but you never know if the front two might fall over or just have a really bad off day
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3.30 Ham - Move In time - win at 11/8 bog wm hill
neat 5f conditions sprint
not much between these but my selection won this race last year and is dropping in class after finishing 4 or 5 lengths behind this years top sprinter, Profitable, in his last 3 outings. Seems to go OK in small fields.
Line of Reason carried my cash last time when he won at Beverley but he had quite a lot in hand that day and these rivals are higher rated. The ground might suit him better than Move in Time but he hasn't beeen a group race winner whereas my horse has won a group one and a group 3 in his time.
Monsieur Joe tends to go off like a scalded cat and I'm thinking that the uphill finish here might catch him out
Muhadathat is a 3yo so gets plenty of weight but is rated some way inferior to the older horses and he's seasonal debut. Went off the boil towards the end of last season but even his better early season form probably wouldn't be good enough. Might take on Monsieur Joe and set it up for the other two
Nothing really between them.......just the win in this race last year swings it for me
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6.25 Windsor - Magical Daze - win at 6/4 bog wm hill
Seller over 6f
My horse is the best in here at the weights and drops down to a seller after a couple of outings in handicaps this season. She's won at the track before and appears to act with cut in the ground
Won two races last summer and is only a 4yo with 12 career runs so not an old has been running in sellers for an outing.
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well done btugero......................fantastic !
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Curr 2.45 - Chemical Charge - win at 2/1 bog bet365
10F group 3
The favourite here, Sir Isaac Newton, won a Royal Ascot handicap a week ago but prior to that had looked as though he was becoming a bit of a tricky customer in two small field races in Ireland. It might just be that he needs to be hidden away in a big field
Even so, my selection beat him fair and square earlier this month when they finished 2nd and 3rd in a Listed race over today's CD. That was my horse's first run for over a year and he should come on for it, in which case it's difficult to see why the favourite should turn the tables
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4.15 Newc - Hardstone - EW at 50/1 bog wm hill
Northumberland Plate - big handicap of the day
My selection is a big price but I reckon he has a decent EW chance
Has won on the AW back in Ireland and a couple of his runs over 14 and 15 furlongs suggests he might be OK over the trip, though there is a bit of doubt
There's not much info to go on as regards the new track but looking at the course map it seems that they're going to run around a little loop two or three times times which would make it a tight track and might not place as much emphasis on stamina as the old turf track
Frankly we don't really known who's going to be suited by the track........in which case I'd rather back an outsider EW
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Yarm 4.30 - Knight Owl - win at 11/10 bog wm hill
Mile handicap, class , soft going
decent race for Yarmouth, a class 2 handicap with 12K to the winner........shame that the field has cut up a bit with the soft going and there's a few NR
My selection won a more competitive class 2 handicap race than this at Newmarket on his seasonal debut and is well suited by cut in the ground.
Main danger is Light and Shade who also won a Class 2 handicap last time but that was fillies only and doesn't look as good as the race my horse won
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I've had a look at the Northumberland Plate.
I didn't study the form or go into it at any great depth but I did sit still and have a think about what kind of horse might win a race like this and came up with some filters to reduce the field.........which were
delete horses that were old or had run dozens of times on the basis that the handicapper should have them about right by now. I decided that 7yo and older had to go based on previous winners
Stamina.......I have a long established system for rating stamina and I decided wanted a horse with a rating of 10 plus (I left in a couple of 9.8 to blur the boundary as it's not an exact science......
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Now I'm down to 7 runners
Deleted the ones with high draws.........left me with 4
Looked at Polytrack record and all 4 of these have won on polytrack.........left with these 4 and current best prices
1 Seamour 10/1
2 Hardstone 33/1
3 Steve Rogers 7/1
4 Gavlar 20/1
Let's see how we get on !
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Ham 8.05 - Sunnua - win at 9/4 bog wm hill
Fillies mile handicap
My selection ran well on her seasonal debut in a better race at Haydock, looking as though she had improved physically over the winter. She was up against it a bit as a 2yo, running in some of those big Sales races that 2yo are laid out for. Gets the trip fine and drops down a grade today
Main danger is Ionization who was a comfortable winner on handicap debut last time and the 6lb penalty shouldn't stop her......she is however up in class as well and up 2 furlongs in trip. That ought to suit her on run style but you never know
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Sals 2.40 - Perfect Pastime - win at 7/1 bog bet365
Veterans handicap sprint over 5F
With a field full of habitual front runners I'm going for one of the outsiders who's usually held up and runs on late. Acts well with cut in the ground and stays further than this so can use his stamina if they take each other on up front
Silverrica looks best of those at the head of the market, having her 2nd start of the season, acts with cut and wins on tracks with an uphill finish
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Bev 4.00 - Peterhouse - win at 15/8 bog Wm Hill
My selection is a dual CD winner who finished a hd 2nd here last time over a shorter trip. Runs off the same mark today and back up to 10F he has a great chance. Looks well handicapped now as he's fallen below his last winning mark and has returned to form
Mysterial is another CD winner who won here last time. Needs a career best now off his revised mark and had the run the race last time with an uncontested lead. Hopefully they'll not let him loose today
The other main danger is Final from the Johnston yard........he's lightly raced and the least exposed. Hasn't managed a win yet in handicaps in 7 attemts and his mark is almost unaltered during that time. Maybe he needs to drop a few pounds or maybe stepping up in trip today will bring improvement. He's bee running over a mile as though he needs further. I'd probably have him as the main dager but I just feel he might be one of those horses who always runs on well at the finish but never gets there........
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Sou 3.45 - Northern Meeting - win at 7/2 bog wm hill
mares handicap hurdle, 2 miles, 6 runners
my horse is a front runner and has a good chance that this will be run to suit as she'll probably get an uncontested lead
She looks quite well handicapped at 4lbs above last winning mark and the race conditions, track, trip, going etc look fine. She ran OK on her seasonal comeback in May after a 5 month break then had a run on the flat.
I think she'll be OK with a bit of rain but I wouldn't want a downpour !
Shanandoa is the least exposed with just two handicap runs. She showed better form 2nd time but this looks a better race. probably has to improve again to be involved
If it does chuck down it would suit May Hay
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Monthly Nap Competition - Wednesday 6th July 2016
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Catt 4.20 - West Coast Flyer - win at 11/8 bog bet365
Staying handicap
Going with the only 3yo in the field here........getting 19lbs from the older horses
Lightly raced with just 4 career starts and has won a maiden and a classified stakes. To be honest his form doesn't look that good but he'll probably improve for stepping up in trip and with experience.
This is an unusual selection for me because generally I'd go with form in the book over promise every time........but I like to follow 3yo in staying races in the second half of the season because the WFA scale seems very much in their favour
Difficult to know how well handicapped he is as he's only run in one and was beaten 5L in a worse race than this. but that was after a 3 month break and he appeared to need the run......