Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Newm 4.40 Lady Macapa - win at 5/1 bog bet365
5F handicap
Conditions look ideal for my selection today......stiff 5F with a bit of cut in the ground. She's a very speedy front runner but perhaps got taken out of her comfort zone last time on a flat track on firm ground against Listed opposition
She should be more suited today and can win from the front
King of Rooks was s decent 2yo last year (won the National Stakes at Sandown by 6 lengths) but has his first outing in a handicap and you always wonder if these horses that run midfield in group races get assessed too highly for handicaps. Similar remarks apply to Lathom who has been fairly well beaten in his frst 2 handicaps after a juvenile season in Listed and group races
Gwendolyn might not be suited by this stiff track, There's a doubt as to whether Mont Kiara has trained on after a couple of lacklustre runs this season
Sign of the kodiac could be the main danger.......he runs here off a 9 lb lower mark than is AW rating and 4lb lower than the mark he won off at Chelmsford 2 runs ago. He does however seem better on the AW but is undoubtedly well handicapped if he can find his feet on turf
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2.30 Aiming For Rio
3.05 Sir Isaac Newton
3.40 Highland Reel
4.20 Undrafted
5.00 Toofi
5.35 Clondaw Warrior
good luck everyone !
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Asc 4.20 - Czabo - ew at 40/1 bog bet365
Feature race of day 4, the Coronation Stakes for 3yo fillies over a mile
Going for a bit of an outsider here from the Channon yard
She finished 4th in the Irish 1000 gns (well beaten) and has a lot of ground to make up on the winner Jet Setting but that one had a hard race against Minding which might have left it's mark
My horse has run again since, winning a Listed race in France
It's not so much the form that attracts me as clearly several of the others have better figures. It's more that Channon took her out of an easier race to run in this which suggest to me that she's improving and they want to give it a go........also she's very well suited to soft ground
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2.30 Perfect Madge
3.05 Humphrey Bogart
3.40 Donjuan Triumphant
4.20 Czabo
5.00 Kinema
5.35 Ormito
good luck all ! -
3.05 Asc - Long Island Sound - win at 9/1 bog wm hill
Tercentenary Stakes.......10F for 3yo, group 3
My selection is an unbeaten colt for Aidan O'Brien with Ryan Moore riding who looks sure to appreciate the step up to 10F and looks a big price
Blue de Vega has the best form in the race having finished 3rd in the Irish Gns but he's said to want better ground and looked a bit one paced in Ireland. Still only Awtaad and Galileo Gold beat him, so that ain't bad !
Other than that you have UK runners who have been running in listed races or handicaps.........maybe Abdon would be the most promising having only ran twice and open to improvement
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2.30 As: Legendary Lunch
3.05 As: Long Island Sound
3.40 As: Chicadoro
4.20 As: Mizzou
5.00 As: Out and About
5.35 As: Lovell
good luck everyone !
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15 hours ago, Trotter said:
2.30 As: Ribchester
3.05 As: Jule in the Crown
3.40 As: Devonshire
4.20 As: A Shin Hikari
5.00 As: Libresa Breeze
5.35 As: Czabo
good luck all
My selected in the last is a NR
if possible could I replace it with
5.35 - Persuasive
Cheers
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6.10 Chelm - Pepita - win at 4/5 bog wm hill
2yo novice race
My selection is from the Hannon yard and hold a group one entry. Flopped a bit last time when sent to Ireland but the form of her Goodwood debut looks solid
Main rival is Teofonic who won easily last time but it didn't look a great race and she carries a penalty for that
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Good luck all !
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2.30 As: Ribchester
3.05 As: Jule in the Crown
3.40 As: Devonshire
4.20 As: A Shin Hikari
5.00 As: Libresa Breeze
5.35 As: Czabo
good luck all
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10 hours ago, BillyHills said:
From someone who often bets unknown quantities in 2yo races and novice hurdles
Good luck Trotter
true BH......but at least they're English trainers so you know something about their normal methods and quality of horses they have and you'll normally have a sales price and info about their relatives that have run here
Must say that I'm not at all keen on Ascot bribing these foreign owners to run their horses at the meeting.......bah humbug !
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Brighton 5.50 - Racemaker - ew at 25/1 bog skybet
I'm skipping Ascot as being too competitive and too many unknown quantities with all those foreign horses that we don't know anything about......
I'm looking at an 8 runner novice race for 2yo at Brighton.......one of these ran tonight so I'm expecting a non runner and a field of 7 and only two places. (the horse in question is currently 11/1 so I don't think I'll suffer a big rule 4)
The odds on favourite has an obvious chance with the form of his last run working out really well (3 winners next time out)
But I'm interested in the Channon horse who was green and looked unfit on debut but apparently a nice type who should improve. Looks big odds in this company
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Good luck everyone.........enjoy Day One of Royal Ascot, probably the best days Flat racing in the UK, well probably
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2.30: Ervedya
3.05: Thunder Snow
3.40: Meccas Angel
4.20: The Gurkha
5.00: Silver Concorde
5.35: Top Score
Good luck everyone !
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8.10 Nott - Aldeburgh - win at 7/2 bog betvictor
10F handicap, class 4 for older horses
my selection is a last time out CD winner and should be even better suited by todays softer ground as he has no stamina issues having won over 12F a couple of times. He's twice won in Class 4 handicaps which gives him the edge over the other last time out CD winner, Best Tamayuz, who's done his winning in Class 6
Favourite is Bakht a Raman but his stamina might be suspect. He's done his winning at a mile. He did finish close up at Chester over this trip last time but that's a fairly easy, tight, track and I think my horse can outbattle him in the finish
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4.20 Sals - The Big Short - ew at 20/1 bog wm hill
2yo novice race
the horses at the top of the market here have run a few times but don't set a particularly high standard. The favourite, Mister Sunshine, looks the best of them but he carries a penalty for winning a 3 runner race at Brighton which probably didn't take much winning.
of the newcomers only the Hannon horse, Zebby Fizz, is of interest because of the yard, but they've not been getting lots of first time out winners this season. They get a lot of 2nd time out winners
looking at the once raced horses who might improve a lot on debut I've got a short list of two - Farleigh and my selection. The race that Farleigh ran in was probably not as good as the one my horse ran in although he wasn't beaten as far. Probably not much between them but my horse is bigger odds. The Charlie Hills horses do tend to come on a lot for their debut's and the Post noted that he travelled well for a long way before tiring late on. Hopefully he'll be readier now and be competitive near the front end of the race.
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bath 2.20 - groupie - win at 10/3 bog bet365
2yo novice
Going for the previous winner in the field here
from the Hannon yard she won first time out over 6F at Windsor but afterwards the trainer said the filly would come on for the run and be suited by dropping to 5F, which she gets today
She's probably not going to be the best of these in the long run but with her winning experience and likely front running tactics (even tho drawn wide) I think she can come out on top today
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Good 6.10 - King of Spades - win at 7/1 bog wm hill
2yo Novice race
We have a couple of previous winners carrying 6lb penalties here so the experiment with replacing maiden races with novice races is beginning to kick in. I'm not sure either of the previous winners won races that were much good and I'm hoping the penalties will find them out
I'm looking at the once-raced horses who might come on for their first runs and improve past those with more experience
My selection is from the Channon yard which is in good nick, He finished 5th at Leicester on debut, slowly away, ran green, late headway. The form has worked out with the 3rd just being touched off last time and the 6th and 9th winning since.
The other one with a similar profile to mine is Fastar who looks OK but he's a much shorter price and nothing has come out of his debut race yet so difficult to weigh up the form of it
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Yarm 3.15 - Nudge Nudge - win at 7/1 bog wm hill
2yo seller
Only 3 runners here and one of them is a big outsider, so effectively a match
You might think it's madness to take on the favourite who is 7/1 ON in places but in a match I'd give the other one a chance
The favourite is from Channon's yard and ran OK on debut, 3rd at Lingfield. However the report said he looked fit and ready to run so there might not be a lot of improvement in him
My selection comes from the Stan Moore yard who's runners often improve a lot for their first out (like my 50/1 2nd a few days ago !) He ran down the field, 10th, at Leicester but was reported as looking unfit. As the trainer's MO seems to involve getting work into them between first and second runs I'm hoping he'll be ready today and he gets a useful 5lb claimer up
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4.10 Hayd - King Bolette - win at 4/5 bog coral
12F handicap
my selection made all in a similar race last time and must have a good chance of repeating the tactics in this small field
that was his seasonal debut and in the past he's come on and improved for a run after a break so might put in a better performance still and overcome the 4lb rise
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5.50 Ling - Toy Theatre - ew at 9/1 bog bet365
2yo novice race - all maidens
My selection comes from the Johnston yard and unusually for one of theirs looked a bit dopey and ran green on debut
But that was a hot race at Newmarket won by Global Applause who's probably the best British 2yo seen out to date
she's had 5 weeks to get her act together and sharpen up
the favourite looks OK, Limelite for the Hannon yard.......most likely winner but skinny odds. Might even be odds on by race time
Monthly Naps Competition, Sunday 19 June 2016
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
4.40 Ponty - Esteemable - win at 4/1 bog wm hill
Mile fillies handicap
My selection won a similar quality race to this last time out at Bath with a degree of ease and the well beaten 2nd won next time out. Track should be OK as Bath is an uphill finish and she looks as though she'll stay further than a mile.
She's in foal which often sparks some improvement and she's sill lightly raced with just the 7 career starts,
I like Lincoln Rocks, a last time out maiden winner at Beverley, as the main danger