Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Donc 4.05 - Windshear - win at 9/4 bog bet265
Class 2 stakes contest over 12F
My selection won this race last year, goes best with cut in the ground and has had a pipe-opener on the AW.
To be fair he does look like a horse who's treading water........too high in the weights for handicaps but not good enough for group races
Today's level of race gives him a chance to win something providing there's not a runner who's an improver on his way up to group company
The main danger is Chancery who is a decent handicapper, won FTO last season and also is best on soft ground. He does however seem best over 10F and my horse might out-stay him in the finish
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Kemp 1.55 - Lucata - EW at 40/1 bog Corals
2yo maiden
With Johnston and Wesley Ward runners in the field there's some big prices about others that might have a squeak. The Dascombe yard have made a decent start with their early 2yo - three out of four runners have been placed.
This one is related to a few winners and by new season sire Sir Prancealot who is being touted as a sire of precocious types
Nice draw in 3
The Johnston runner is drawn wide but that didn't stop his two runners here last week who both won by a street so he's the most likely winner and could be a good bet at 7/4 with the Wesley Ward runner keeping him at odds against
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Monetary Fund at 12/1 could be an EW shot in the 3.00 at Newbury........one of only two Distance winners at this 3 mile trip
Ground drying up in the last couple should help and is having 2nd run back from a break (presumably waiting for better ground).
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1.50 Newb - Fly du Charmil - EW at 16/1 bog wm hill
Novice hurdle
Only 6 runners here so 2 places up for a return........but that's the same percentage as 3 places in a 9 runner race........and I'm getting a quarter odds !
My selection looked useful winning his bumper here but flopped badly on his hurdles debut when favourite for a competitive Ascot race. I'll give him another chance after a good break to recover from that run........he was sweating up, and failed to pick up when asked to get into the race.
The front two in the market both have penalties. The odds on Fav should win but the 2nd Fav could be vulnerable under a double penalty
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Well done BB !.......
cheers BH.......
good luck everyone for the new month !
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Bang 2.10 - Boatswain - win at 9/1 bog boylesports
Novice hurdle around 20F
Only 3 runners here and I'm taking a chance on the outsider of the three. He was beaten 160 lengths last time but reportedly lost his action and the Post said he ran as though something was amiss. Been given 3 months to get over that and his only other run, on debut, was quite promising, finishing 2nd in a bumper. The 3rd won next time out and a couple of others have run OK without winning. Acts on heavy and was sticking on that day so extra trip might help
Both other runners carry double penalties. Tjongejonge looks difficult to assess after winning a couple in France. Has put in a couple of tame efforts since coming over but drops in class today and might get an uncontested lead. Ran in a grade 2 at Sandown last time and got a big lead but folded when challenged
The current favourite is Belami des Pictons - he's won his last two but had to be hard driven last time and has only ha a couple of weeks to recover
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Ex 3.40 - Umberto D'Olivate - win at 5/2 bog wm hill
Handicap chase over 3 miles
My selection likes this track and usually runs well here and acts on heavy ground
Hasn't won for 2 years but has fallen down the weights and wasn't beaten too far last time out in his best run for a while. Dropped another 3lbs since then. He's a bit of a plodder but I doubt any of them are going to be sprinting at the end of 3 miles on heavy ground on a stiff track like this
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3.05 hex - Mahler and Me - EW at 33/1 bog bet365
Novice hurdle
only 6 runners here so I need mine to finish in the first 2 to collect
My selection is the outsider of the field but I think he looks better than that !
Won a novice hurdle 2 runs ago with the 2nd and 3rd winning next time out
Pulled up on his last run after reportedly having breathing problems
He's had nearly 3 months off to get over whatever ailed him that day (and we'll probably find out after the event tha he's had a wind operation !). Both his PtP win and his Rules win came after breaks so no worries about the absence. Acts on soft/heavy and has won over 22 furlongs so should get the trip
Looks a big price !
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2.05 Redc - Spring Bird - win at 9/2 bog bet365
Can't resist a crack at the first flat race of the turf season even though it's an abomination that it's taking place at Redcar not Doncaster
This is a 5F fillies handicap on soft ground
There is a doubt about the ground for all these but my horse has won on g/s and won at Southwell on fibresand so hopefully she'll cope with soft ground, She's also run well on undulating tacks (Muss and Catt) so again hope she'll be OK on this one
She ran well at the start of her last campaign with 2 close 2nds in her first two outings so goes well fresh and the yard have had a couple of recent winners
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Wolv 2.40 - Dutch Archer - EW at 10/1 bog wm hill
Maiden race
My selection has only run the once, finishing 6th here a months ago. That didn't look to be a strong race but he showed distinct promise being slowly away, held up, running on at the finish.......a typical non trying educational run you might say.......
Today's race doesn't appear to have any stand out runners as the odds suggests, you can 9/2 any of three at the top of the market
Hopefully my horse will come a bundle and the yard has hit form in the last week or so with four runners, all won or placed
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Well done BB !........
Thanks BH as always......
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Kemp 1.10 - Boater - win at 11/8 bog bet365
2yo maiden
No form to go on which makes this an interesting puzzle
The Johnston horse will go off a short price favourite and will probably win. He won the first 3 races for 2yo last season and has already won the first one this season by a massive margin
Today's runner is an early foal owned by 'the other' Sheik Hamdan and is closely related to Listed and G3 winners
David Evans saddles 5 of the 10 runners and he seems to have gone off the boil as an early season 2yo debut win trainer, as has Bill Turner who has a runner. JS Moore rarely has first time out winners (but is a good source of big priced EW shots second time out!)
That only leaves 2 to worry about, the Burke and Dascombe horses and both are drawn wide
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Wolv 4.00 - Line of Reason - win at 15/8 bog wm hill
Class 2 sprint conditions race over 5F
My selection is the highest rated on OR and made a pleasing return from a break at Lingfield last month in a Listed race. He was beaten by just over a length and going by the horses who finished around him he ran to his mark of 110
Might come on a bit for the run and looks better over 5f these days.
There's a few front runners here and it could be a furious pace which would set it up nicely for my horse who is usually held up and comes with a late run
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Chep 2.05 - Moonstripper - EW at 33/1 bog betvictor
Novice hurdle for mares
The ground appears to be changing now and winter form could go out of the window
My selection won a Point on good ground and finished 3rd in her only bumper on a decent surface
Well beaten on first run back after a break last time but the soft ground might well have been against her and could put up an improved performance on better ground with that run under her belt
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2.10 Warw - Derksen - EW at 25/1 bog wm hill
maiden hurdles
Looking at the ones at EW prices and see Nicky Henderson has a couple in here. They ran against each other last time and my selection finished one place in front of the other but is at bigger odds today. The other one was finishing fast whereas mine has travelled well and faded, so probably not much between them
The odds on Fav looks OK but has been beaten favourite all 3 times over hurdles which suggests that he might not be as good as people think, although he could still be good enough to take this. Take him out and there's not much depth here so I'm happy t go with a potential improver from a big yard
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Ex 3.40 - Thomas Crapper - win at 4/1 bog bet365
Novice chase
My horse hasn't won a chase yet after 10 attempts, but he's finished 2nd 5 times so he's due !. Not averse to winning as he's won 4 times over hurdles so he's not ungenuine. Appears to go well on stiff tracks
Might have a chance today against two penalised runners
The favourite tends to win on sharp left hand tracks and hasn't run for 5 months but he was the best of these over hurdles. Earned his penalty by finishing alone in a two horse race then finished 2nd to a heavily eased down winner last time out
The other fancied one, Port Melon, won over 3 miles and stamina looks his strong suit so not sure this big drop in trip will suit
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I see that the first 2yo race of the season will be held at Wolverhampton this year
being a bit of an old fogey I just think it's sad to see the demise if the Brocklesby as the first 2yo race
It used to be a big deal
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Yes, I remember Floyd !
.........and that's a smashing essay you've written !
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Taun 2.40 - Camakasi - ew at 66/1 bog betvictor
Novice hurdle
As often happens in these novice races there's only 3 runners in single figures and I'm looking for weaknesses which might keep them out of the first 3. Two of them have penalties and all of them have recent form on soft ground which is the basis of their market position. Now that the ground has come up Good, Good To Firm In Places the recent form might not stand up
My selection is quite a big outsider and has run poorly in 3 novice hurdles, all on soft ground.
There is a doubt over his stamina for the winter game but he appeared to get 10F on the Flat and that's usually the hallmark of a horse that can get 2 miles over hurdles. Decent ground and a sharp track should help
If he gets the trip then he could leave his previous hurdles form behind. He's rated 82 on the Flat and his best form was on Good and good to Firm.......including his last run on the level when he was a close up 3rd in a class 3 handicap, beaten under a length
Obviously I'm pinning quite a lot of hope on the changing ground as we move into spring.......this could be one of my tactics over the next month !
But when you're plucking out 66/1 shots there's bound to be some doubts around them .......
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22 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
Didn't Tommy Stack always do well early on in Ireland, whatever happened to him?
Not many runners nowadays.
Good luck, its a lottery
![:\](/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
Yea, first thing I did on realising this meeting was today was to look for Stack's runners.......he's only got 2, one in each of the last 2 races. I'll see how they get on
The 2 golden rules for early season Irish racing used to be
Follow T Stack
Oppose A O'Brien
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Downpatrick 2.55 - Modem - win at 12/5 bog bet365
Conditions event over hurdles - small field but looks competitive with 3 or 4 in with a chance
The current favourite, De Plotting Shed, is a promising type who won easily last time at 5/1 ON.......obviously didn't beat anything. Had previously run in some decent races. Difficult to assess him but he looks to be a staying type and I'm not sure this tight track on better ground will play to his strengths
My selection has some good form over sticks such as when finishing 3rd to the grade 1 winner Identity Thief in October, giving him weight. Hasn't run over Jumps since, presumably waiting for better ground, but has had a couple of spins on the AW at Dundalk to keep him ticking over
My chap can front run if necessary which might not be bad tactics in a small field on a tight track but he can also sit in if something else goes on and I just think he might be a bit speedy in the finish amongst a field of what looks like stayers
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woah........this has crept up under the radar !
I wasn't aware of this until just now
A few years ago when I used to concentrate on the higher end Flat races I used to get unfeasibly excited by the Park Express Stakes (group 3)........I'd make big notes on all the runners, past trends, think about how to record info about the race and the horses that ran in it..........with the intention of doing the same for all group races
That used to last two or three weeks until I realised how much time and work was involved, then I'd give up..........
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42 minutes ago, Jimmy2shoes said:
Heard Chris Hoy is training for the Derby
Chris Hoy is busy.......he's actually preparing to compete as a drver in the 2016 Le Mans 24 hours motor race !
what is it with these cyclists !
Monthly Naps Competition, Monday 4th April 2016
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
2.20 Ling - Hot N Sassy - ew at 50/1 bog bet365
2yo maiden
The current favourite, Stormy Clouds from the Hannon yard, has the best form, having finished 2nd on debut. Plus there's another Johnston runner to contend with
But I'm going for one of the outsiders. Horses from this yard tend to come on a bundle from their first run and I followed a few last season and got some decent EW shots and a 20/1 winner
She finished 4th in the other Kempton maiden on the day that Stormy Clouds finished 2nd and to be honest it looked to be the worse of the two races. But take out the Fav and the Johnston runner and I'd fancy my one against all the others, in which case she should be in contention for the places