Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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3 hours ago, Trotter said:
3.00 Newb - Top Gamble - win at 5/2 bog bet365
Won doing handsprings though it was backed in to favourite late on !
(I think it did for BH's placepot though with the non runner making it win only)
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Good start BH........all 4 placed in the first 2 races !
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I've got a sneaky feeling for one of the outsiders in the 2.35 at Lingers, a 7F handicap for fillies and mares
I went through the race last night and most of the horses looked to be either weighted to their best or not sure to reproduce their best over todays trip and track
My fancy is for First Experience, 15/2 bog bet365, who is on a winning mark, is a CD winner, ran her best race for a while last time and looks perfectly suited by small fields. She hasn't won for a long time though and hasn't really looked like taking advantage of falling down the weights, but the return to this this track, this trip and a small field could give her a chance
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The Game Spirit is now down to 4 runners with Dodging Bullets odds-on. We'd all love to see him return as a top class horse, but obviously this is a prep run for Cheltenham so you'd have to suspect that he won't be 100% today
With a big doubt over Captain Conan coming back from serious injury and Un Beau Roman looking seriously outclassed it should be up to Top Gamble to take advantage if the favourite isn't race fit........he's a CD winner who acts on the ground and should get the trip thoroughly as he stays a but further.
He looks like a horse who's now too high in the weights for handicaps so paradoxically might have a better chance in Grade races even though they're supposedly better than handicaps. At todays weights he's 11 lbs 'wrong' with Dodging Bullets .......but will the Dodger run to anywhere near his mark ?
3.00 Newb - Top Gamble - win at 5/2 bog bet365
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I've ended up with Zarib in the big race, 3.35 Newbury
I used a different method than usual........a method I reserve for big handicaps which involves very quickly elimating lots of horses without looking at their form, handicap marks etc
So........I looked at the last 10 winners listed on the Post site and all were aged 5 or 6. So I eliminated everything aged 7 and above, None of the previous winners listed were carrying more than around 11-2 so I eliminated horses higher up the weights
I eliminated all the Mullins horses on the basis that if he's running 5 he can't think any of them are outstanding
By this time I'm down to about 6 or 7.......
I eliminated all the ones that had a negative comment in the Post regarding todays trip or ground........and the ones that were too short for EW betting (under 10/1)
Left me with a couple to look at.......Zarib and Flying Angel. The latter was tempting because it was much bigger odds and the trainer won the race a couple of years ago with a big priced one and today's horse had run in some of the same prep races........but had been qel beaten rather than running well. Basically he just doesn't look as good as the one who won 2 years ago (Splash of Ginge)
For Zarib see my Nap of the Day post
Newb 3.35 (quick selection system for big handicaps!)
Zarib - EW 20/1 across the board
Flying Angel - EW at 50/1 Wm Hill
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I like the feature of putting the favourite's current odds on the main race index page........that's pretty handy for that initial glance at today's races when you're looking to pick out the races you want to ignore and the ones you want to look at
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Newb 3.35 - Zarib - EW at 18/1 bog PP
Big handicap of the day
My selection was a decent juvenile last season and made a perfectly good seasonal debut finishing 3rd in the Wincanton Grade 2 race in November, sent off favourite.
His only run since then was when finishing 6th in The Ladbroke, beaten about 6 lengths, running on late, nearest finish.
Today might put a bit of extra emphasis on stamina with softer ground, slightly longer trip and that long Newbury straight run in where horses can get a good gallop on. He's a CD winner, the cheekpieces go on today and the 5lb claimer gets up (she's won 2 of her last 5 rides, both for this trainer)
Obviously it's hugely competitive but I just fancy having a runner in the big race rather than fannying around picking 2/1 losers around the gaffs ..........
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Good luck everyone !
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Of course ATR will be getting Hereford back so it's not all doom and gloom
My impression is that ATR still have more meetings than RUK........RUK have quite a few blank days with no live meetings whereas ATR seem to have 2 or 3 meetings every day, helped of course by their AW tracks racing pretty much every day between them quite often with 2 fixtures a day and the Irish racing 4 or 5 days a week
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3.15 Kemp - Gods Own - win at 15/8 bog bet365
20F Graduation Chase
My selection appears best on RH tracks, has won here over hurdles and has won over the trip. Finished 2nd in the Arkle last year behind Un De Sceaux and is rated 1lb higher than the favourite, Josses Hill
Josses Hill is getting 7lbs which put him best in at the weights but his jumping is a bit dicey, including in this race last year when he was turned over at odds on. These fences are pretty unforgiving and could find him out. Also he might be better at 2 miles
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Donc 2.55 - Scooby - EW at 25/1 bog bet365
Novice hurdle
This race doesn't look very deep if you take out the odds on favourite (who fell last time)
My selection finished 4th in a Kempton novice race beaten about 14L. That might not have been the best novice race at Kempton but the first two look useful prospects and my selection showed some promise, running on from the rear. He'll have to progress again today but I can see him running into a place and being thereabout if the favourite falls again !
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23 hours ago, Jimmy2shoes said:
2:30 Market Rasen - Superfection. 0.5 E/w Bet @ 16/1 Bet365 along with most others
well done Jimmy........blimey, that was some drift to 40/1
You must have been the only person in the world who fancied it !
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2.10 Sou - Daisy Bere - win at 13/8 bog bet365
Mile handicap for 3yo
Only 4 runners here but 3 of them are winners and none of the 4 look out of it
My selection won a CD maiden last time at 66/1........but it didn't look flukey with the front two pulling six lengths and more ahead of a handful of horses rated 65 to 72. If they ran anything like their ratings then my horse looks thrown in off 69 !
She was reportedly a nice big filly with scope and ran a bit green on what was only her second outing so there should be room for some progression
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Blimey........BH the Placepot King !
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I think I used to do something a bit similar to this in the early days of using the internet for racing........
Basically in handicaps I used to give the 2nd horse it's current rating and rate them from that........so the winner would be above his current rating and the 3rd downwards would be behind, the amounts depending on the relative distances
I found it quite handy for seeing at a quick glance if horses were gradually improving their score and running into form
and to see if their was any pattern as to trip, track, ground etc
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3.05 MR - Point The Way - win at 5/1 bog wm hill
decent looking novice hurdle despite the small field - all 4 have won and any of the four could win this
Not sure the favourite from the Hobbs yard would want two and a half miles on heavy ground and my selection is a front runner who could make this a test of stamina by setting a decent clip
I think this track will suit front running anyway
All the runners appear to act on heavy ground so it's difficult to rule any out.......I just think my selection might get the race run to suit him
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well done BH !
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I spent a bit of time on the first race at Fakenham last night
The favourite, Vent Nivernais, presents the punter with a common dilemma as to assess if a given trip will suit
He's running over 16F today for the first time for a while and usually runs over 20F, has run over 24F. Invariably gets similar comments in running.......dropped out before 12th, dropped out 3 out, weakened 4 out, one paced 2 out, all out to hold 2nd.
The Post suggests that he's not getting home and that the drop back in trip should suit
I'm not convinced.......I think he's just very one paced and slow and if anything will be even less suited to 2 miles than longer trips.
Of course he might just be better than these and win anyway..........but I was looking for something to take him on with.
I settled on Astrum, now 2nd fav, I think was 3rd fav last night.......who is dropping in class and was running when the Mccain yard was really struggling at the end of last year. Appears at least to be a two miler and act on any going
1.45 Fak - Astrum - win at 9/4 bog wm hills
(Just looking at the betting I think Vent Nivernais has drifted since last night and my selection has shortened, mine might be favourite by race time)
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Fak 4.20 - Izbushka - win at 5/1 bog PP
Staying handicap hurdle
Going to take on the odds-on favourite here - Navanman won at Towcester a few days ago but he's not had much time to recover and this is a very different track today. That looked a poor race with a very disappointing favourite and lots of out of form runners
My selection won over CD last time, his second win at the track. Today is a drop in class and he's s front runner who's suited by this sharp track. Acts on the going. A repeat of his last run should see him going close
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Wow........amazing finish to the 2.30 at Musselborough........it was even more surprising than Carlingford Lough yesterday !
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you're already through gbettle !
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Altruism started at the back, got further and further behind and pulled up
On the plus side it was well backed !........
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Just seen the Irish Gold Cup.........blimey, that's a 'what happened next' with the eventual winner almost tailed off !
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Altruism could be a bit of EW value in the 1.00pm if we don't get any NRs and 8 go to post
He was a good horse on the flat, rated in the 90s and winning a Newmarket maiden for Godolphin. He then won two summer novice hurdles before being put away for a break
Came back and finished 4th in a Listed race on his return on ground that was almost certiainly unsuitably soft
Todays better ground should suit and has Dickie Johnson up
Muss 1.00 - Altruism - EW at 22/1 with Skybet and 20/1 with the BOG firms
Monthly Naps Comp, ''Sunday'' 14th Feb - 2016
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
2.10 Exe - Bound Hill - EW at 50/1 bog wm hill
Novice hurdle, heavy ground, 18.5 furlongs
Only 3 appear to be fancied here so it might be worth taking an EW chance on one of the outsiders
My selection ran OK on hurdles debut last time. Although well beaten he stuck to his task and ran on at the finish. The trip that day looked a bit sharp for him and he should be suited by this stamina test, a testing track, a couple of extra furlongs, heavier ground
Of the 3 fancied ones.....
Brelan D'as makes his British debut and carries a penalty for winning a race in France about 4 months ago. He looks pretty good but Nicholls runners can need a run after a break and we don't know how he's settled in, if he'll act on heavy ground
Rolling Dylan was just beaten on the nod last time so is almost a winner without a penalty. But he was hard driven on heavy ground and that could have taken a toll on him. Had 4 weeks to recover
Overturn Express was going Ok when he fell 2 out in a race won by Yanworth, the hottest novice hurdler in the UK. However he was begiining to tire when he fell so I'm not sure this stiffer test of stamina will suit, though he could be the class horse in the field
I'm hoping 2 or 3 of them flop leaving places for my horse to run in to !