Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Few good winners in the thread today !
I know there were a couple of non runners but Arthur's Oak must have really well backed to go off 6/4F
I think Bold Henry was favourite when I looked at the race on Friday night but every man and his dog appears to have realised that the form wold be overturned from their last time out run against each other
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Muss 1.30 - My Brother Sylvest - EW at 12/1 boyles
Chelm 3.40 - Gentlemen - win at 4/1 bog bet365
Chelm 4.10 - Mariee - win at Evs bog bet365
res
Muss 3.00 - Aristo Du Plessis - win at 4/1 bog boyles
Chelm 2.10 - Mr Red Clubs - ew at 10/1 bog wm hill
good luck VT !........
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Sand 3.00 - Saddlers Encore - win at 7/1 bog PP
Staying handicap hurdle
My selection represents the Hobbs-Johnson pair and is one of the more unexposed horses in the field
He's only had 6 career starts, winning 2
He had 20 months out before his comeback in December when he ran 5th in a Wincanton handicap of similar level to this one although a grade lower
Both his wins have been on RH tracks and hopefully he should come on a lot for that last run for an in form team
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Sand 1.50 - Arthur's Oak - win at 11/4 bog PP
Leop 1.55 - Bellshill - win at 11/8 bog bet365
Sand 2.25 - Tea For two - win at 6/4 bog wm hill
reserves
Leop 2.30 - Pont Alexandre - win at 3/1 bog boyles
Weth 2.45 - Native River - win at 7/2 bog wm hill
Good luck everyone !
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Not sure if you knew this, BH.......but you're down to 4 runners in the first at Chepstow so yours needs to win, not place
2 non runners
that's the kind of thing that would put me off doing a placepot with small field races involved........
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The Racing Post log in issues appear to have been fixed !
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Chep 2.45 - Just Bill - ew at 33/1 bog Corals
Novice hurdle
Going for a bit of an outsider here
He ran well for a long way in December coming back from a long break........close up until fading late on and being pulled up
Been given a few weeks to get over that return run and could go better today
Looks to be a bog standard novice hurdle with none of the big yards represented
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unable to log in to the Racing Post.........they know of the problem and are working on it
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Looking at the first at Wincanton and thinking the Nicholls runner, Lifeboat Mona, might be a bit of value against the favourite
She pulled up last time in a listed race and reportedly had breathing problems, so I'm thinking that Nicholls is pretty quick to slice 'em open and cut bits out so we might hear after the race that she's had a breathing operation
if so then she'd have a good chance as a Listed bumper winner and a novice hurdle winner over this CD,
The favourite, Breese Vendeenne, looks vulnerable with a 0-7 record and looking pretty one paced and unable to produce much in a finish
Winc 1.30 - Lifeboat Mona - win at 2/1 bog wm hill
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Sou 3.25 - Virnon - win at 9/4 bog bet365
12f handicap
My selection fair scooted home over this CD on his course debut last time out. He'd won a couple of soft/heavy ground hurdles in November and this deeper surface appeared to suit him after he flopped on the polytrack
Still open to improvement on the flat
Play Nicely is up 14lbs since his win in a poor race a couple of runs ago
The Lock Master has won here over 11F but this one additional furlong seems to catch him out
US Navy Seal is perhaps the biggest danger though he is quirky and dumped his rider on his only visit here
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6.10 Kemp - Mystical Sapphire - ew at 11/1 bog wm hill
7f handicap, class 4
My selection has a good record here with 4 CD wins and returns here after trips to Lingfield and Chelmsford, where she ran OK but got hampered, snatched up at Chelmsford and maybe found the Lingfield track a bit sharp, staying on too late
Should be suited by coming back here and by a big field which should ensure a decent pace for her to run at
Runs off 78 tonight, has won off 84 in the past and last win was off 74 on her last visit here 3 runs ago
Middle draw and Oisin Murphy up
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good luck BH !
I think it's a good move to miss out the favourite in the class 3 handicap hurdle at 3.45 (leg 4)
Pipe's runner, Master Red, is 5/2F, but he hasn't run for 444 days and has no form on Heavy ground. His only wins have been on Good and Good to Soft. Plus I don't think the yard is in that great form
I'd also be tempted to take on the second favourite, After Hours, who's gone up 10lbs for a short head win
I like De Faoithesdream (9/1 most firms) and Sea Wall (7/1 most firms) - both act oh heavy, both coming back from chasing, the former is a front runner who could lead them a merry dance and the latter has been fairly well fancied for a couple of chases only to fall twice and might find it easier back over the smaller obstacles
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Sou 3.00 - Mile claimer
The overnight favourite, Don't call Me, has pulled out leaving just four runners and a well odd-on favourite in Patriotic who won a CD handicap last time and is now rated 80. He won that handicap off 75. He's 2-1 ON and the most likely winner but I have a hunch for Dominandros at 6/1 bog wm hill
Gay Kellaways horse really needs further than a mile and has been out of form lately but go back a year and he was finishing close up in class 2 handicaps and listed races and was rated in the 90s
The angle today is first time blinkers. His recent races have tended to follow a similar pattern.......sits in behind leaders, ridden 2 out, fades away
His best career runs (admittedly some time ago now) were when he attempted to make all and I think they might have a go from the front today and try to run the legs off Patriotic.
He's getting 9lbs off the favourite plus a 7lb claim and is still only rated 3lb inferior on official figures
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Not much on today........Southwell and Taunton, both on ATR. Lingfield abandoned (waterlogged)
no scheduled meeting in Ireland
It's a poor meeting at Southwell but there's a couple of Class 3 handicaps at Taunton
Post your fancies here, tips, bets, things you notice about today's racing, jokes would be more than welcome
Anything that you don't think can win ?........false favourites ?
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Sou 3.30 - Flying Lesson - ew at 10/1 bog bet365
Mile maiden
my selection has his second run for Mark Johnston
although you tend to think he has his horses ready first time they don't all win first time out and some come on for a run. I'm hoping he's one of them !
led for a long way on debut at Wolves before being headed and eased. Has a good draw for front running here and this track suits prominent racers
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well done BH.........I've been watching the racing this afternoon and followed your selections
if I read this right I think you have 2 lines up ?
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12 hours ago, Trotter said:
Kemp 3.25 - Maverik - EW at 20/1 bog wm hill
snip.......
Main problem........dead 8 runners. I'll have to think about scrapping this selection if there's a non runner and I couldn't put money down without knowing if I had 3 places........
Oh damn.........how annoying !
Not only is there a NR but it's the poor value short priced favourite that was making the market for everything else
So I'm scrapping that one (watch Maverik sluice up now !)
I'll go with this one instead..........though the price has come in since i posted it last night in the AW Racing thread
4.30 Kemp - Brazen Spirit - win at 15/2 bog PP
7 runners for the 6f sprint handicap
I don't think there's anything here which looks well handicapped on current form, nothing looks particularly unexposed or an improving type
I've put a line through 4 of them because this doesn't appear to be their ideal trip........Doctor Parkes better over 5F, Bouclier, Cool Strutter and Saint Pois (Saint Peas ?) maybe better over further. If there are horses that I think the Official Assessor has about right then really I want them to at least have ideal conditions as to track, trip, going
Yeeoow would appear to have a chance......back to last winning mark and won a claimer last time. Has won over this CD a couple of times. He'd been pretty well beaten in his 3 runs in handicaps before dropping into claiming company and winning and I'm worried that retruning to handicaps will find him out again
Head space is on his last winning mark and is also a CD winner. He's finished 2nd the last twice but has crept up 4lbs for not winning. Also up in class as his two decent runs have been in class 5 races
Which leaves my selection........also on his last winning mark and a CD winner. Having his second run back from a break and ran over 7F last time, he was close up until fading in the final furlong. Return to 6F should suit, hopefully improve a bit for the run and gets the first time visor. Drawn wide but there doesn't appear to be much pace so i think he'll get across and sit behind the leaders
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.........and just to avoid the possibility of a one post thread, here's my Nap of the Day selection......
Kemp 3.25 - Maverik - EW at 20/1 bog wm hill
Mile handicap, class 5
Going for one of the outsiders here who hasn't won for a while but has been falling down the handicap. I've got a hunch he might put in a better performance today. He was fairly well beaten last time out finishing last of 10 but let's list some positives -
last time was his first run after a break and over a trip too short at a track he's not won at. Returns to his proper trip today and is a dual CD winner
drops into class 5 for the first time since Sept 2011 having come down another 3lbs to 75 which gets him in this 0-75
gets all the gear.......first time blinkers, first time tongue strap
was beaten 10 lengths last time but the runs immediately prior to his last 3 wins he was beaten 15, 9 and 39 lengths so he's quite capable of bouncing back from a poor run
Think the short price favourite here is poor value despite a good win last time.......that was a shocking race and even at class 5 this is much better
Main problem........dead 8 runners. I'll have to think about scrapping this selection if there's a non runner and I couldn't put money down without knowing if I had 3 places........
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Being a bit contrary I've decided to get stuck into the AW again just as everyone else is gearing up for Cheltenham
Plus I can't seem to find many winners over the jumps
4.30 Kemp - Brazen Spirit - win at 9/1 bog bet365
7 runners for the 6f sprint handicap
I don't think there's anything here which looks well handicapped on current form, nothing looks particularly unexposed or an improving type
I've put a line through 4 of them because this doesn't appear to be their ideal trip........Doctor Parkes better over 5F, Bouclier, Cool Strutter and Saint Pois (Saint Peas ?) maybe better over further. If there are horses that I think the Official Assessor has about right then really I want them to at least have ideal conditions as to track, trip, going
Yeeoow would appear to have a chance......back to last winning mark and won a claimer last time. Has won over this CD a couple of times. He'd been pretty well beaten in his 3 runs in handicaps before dropping into claiming company and winning and I'm worried that retruning to handicaps will find him out again
Head space is on his last winning mark and is also a CD winner. He's finished 2nd the last twice but has crept up 4lbs for not winning. Also up in class as his two decent runs have been in class 5 races
Which leaves my selection........also on his last winning mark and a CD winner. Having his second run back from a break and ran over 7F last time, he was close up until fading in the final furlong. Return to 6F should suit, hopefully improve a bit for the run and gets the first time visor. Drawn wide but there doesn't appear to be much pace so i think he'll get across and sit behind the leaders
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Well done Cairnhill !
Overall it looked a poor month but 20 quid up isn't to be sniffed at !.........
well done to the other prize winners and thanks as always to BH !......
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New month, new competition, good luck everyone !
Kemp 3.25 - Maverik - EW at 20/1 bog wm hill
Mile handicap, class 5
Going for one of the outsiders here who hasn't won for a while but has been falling down the handicap. I've got a hunch he might put in a better performance today. He was fairly well beaten last time out finishing last of 10 but let's list some positives -
last time was his first run after a break and over a trip too short at a track he's not won at. Returns to his proper trip today and is a dual CD winner
drops into class 5 for the first time since Sept 2011 having come down another 3lbs to 75 which gets him in this 0-75
gets all the gear.......first time blinkers, first time tongue strap
was beaten 10 lengths last time but the runs immediately prior to his last 3 wins he was beaten 15, 9 and 39 lengths so he's quite capable of bouncing back from a poor run
Think the short price favourite here is poor value despite a good win last time.......that was a shocking race and even at class 5 this is much better
Main problem........dead 8 runners. I'll have to think about scrapping this selection if there's a non runner and I couldn't put money down without knowing if I had 3 places........
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Good luck with that BH !
I like Not A Bother Boy in the 2.45 at Sedge (7/2 wm hill)........rattled up a 3 timer before Christmas including 2 wins here. Finished 2nd in the Lincs National at MR
After 4 runs in a month he's now had a few weeks break and hopefully will come back bouncing.
It's a competitive little race with every horse carrying newspaper naps but this is a bit of a tricky track and course form is a big plus.
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Punch 3.00 - Felix Yonger - win at 8/11 bog wm hill
Tied Cottage chase - grade 2 around 2 Miles
Mullins had a bit of stinker in the UK on Saturday but I still fancy his favourite to win the feature race of the day. He's a 5 times winner at this level and a grade one winner. CD winner, acts on the going, good weight carrier and won last time out. Has won over further so should be versatile enough to cope if something tries to run the legs off him as he's usually held up
Flemenstar won a grade one last time but was a bit lucky with Un de Sceaux falling. Prior to that he hadn't won since 2013 and looks past his best now.
Mozoltov was a grade 2 novice a couple of years ago but doesn't look as good now after time off and injuries, He did run his best race for a while last time out but it was in handicap company
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I reckon at this time of year Mullins sends over his second or third strings as scouts to test out the British challengers and get an assessment of how good they are and how they race
Monthly Naps Comp, ''Sunday'' 7th Feb 2016
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
4.10 Chelm - Mariee - win at 6/5 bog Ladbrokes
Class 4 mile handicap for 3yo
My selection is unbeaten after winning a maiden and a handicap
Won her maiden here over 7F and ought to be suited by the extra furlong and probably more in time. The handicap she won at Wolves was a similar level to today and she won fairly comfortably by around a couple of lengths
This won't be easy with three other last time out winners in the field.