Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Sand 3.15 - Fairy Rath - win at 13/2 bog betvictor
Handicap chase
My selection won this race last year and has been running into form over 3 runs this season, PU, beaten 32L, beaten 12L.
Acts on the ground and Tom Cannon gets back on board.......the horse's last 3 wins have been with Cannon riding
Tactically versatile .........can make the running or sit in
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12.05 Sand - Master of Speed - win at 13/8 bog wm hill
12.55 Ayr - Tantamount - win at 13/8 bog PP
2.25 sand - O O Seven - win at 4/1 bog wm hill
res
12.40 Sand - Gitane du berlais - win at 9/4 bog wm hill
1.40 Chelm - Fast enough - win at 4/1 bog bet365
Good luck everyone !
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One small thing I have noticed today......
When I'm looking at any established race I always click on the 'Past Winners' button look at the last 10 winners to see if there's any obvious pattern (I'm In Members Club)
Both races I tried this for today came up with 'Past Winners are not available for this race'
The last one I checked was the big Sandown Veterans Chase tomorrow.......I don't think this is the first year it's been run ?
The previous one was the class 3 sprint at Southwell today which has certainly been contested every year for the last 10 years
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It's working OK for me
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Sou 2.05 - Come On Dave - EW at 11/1 bog wm hill
Class 3 sprint handicap over 5F
One of the highlights of the New Years programme - the big cavalry charge at Southwell.
My selection is a CD winner and races off his last winning mark. Has a good draw in stall 1 and is a speedy front runner
Ran well last time in a higher grade race at Chelmsford where he was leading near the finish but got swamped and finished 4th. With the lower grade and the fact that it's more difficult to come from behind here there's a good chance he'll stick it out to the line
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12.30 Ling - Humour - win at 10/1 bog wm hill
With inspections at the jumps meetings I'm not waiting to see what's on and going straight to the AW
6F handicap
I'm looking at some new thoughts about tackling handicaps for the new year.........which basically involves looking for horses in outside of the market leaders which have been showing signs of improvement in their last couple of races and which have an angle involving something different from last time
In this case my horse has been beaten 3, 2 and 1 lengths (plus the bits) in his last 3 races with the angle being that he now drops back to his winning trip of 6F after a couple of runs at 7F
I'm thinking of avoiding last time out winners on the basis that mostly they'll have run up to their best in order to win (particularly in low grade handicaps full of exposed types).........and that it's unlikely they'll run to their best in 2 consecutive races, indeed if they've gone up in the weights they'll have to run even better
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Hayd 2.30 - Elenika - win at 9/4 bog wm hill
Handicap chase
My selection came back from a long absence recently and has run well twice, falling when challenging at Wetherby then winning comfortably at Chepstow.
Still on a lower mark than he ran off before his time away from the track
Acts on heavy ground. My main concern is that he's run twice at Haydock before and been well beaten though maybe he wasn't in the same form then and he's run OK on similar tracks like Wetherby and Newbury
Market rival Friendly Royal is a stone above his last winning mark and went up again for finishing 2nd last time.
Minella Reception looks Ok but hasn't run for nearly 500 days and has only run in one chase so is giving away weight, experience and possibly fitness.
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Hi BH..........looks like Mondays table got posted again !
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2.00 Newb - Barters Hill - win at 8/13 bog wm hill
Grade 1 novice hurdle
It's got to that time of the month where the main goal is to stay in profit whilst still posting a selection every day..........so it's time for some short priced ones and hopefully some winners (no guarantee!)
My selection here is unbeaten and very highly regarded. Unbeaten in bumpers with wins at Listed and grade 2 level he won his novice hurdle easily last time and the well beaten second franked the form by winning at Cheltenham next time
Looks an exciting prospect
With the Nicholls yard looking a bit out of form the main rival should be Label des Obeaux who won a grade 2 last time. He seems to have suddenly improved tons in first 2 British hurdles having failed to win in several outings in France. His 2 improved runs have come on RH tracks.......might just be coincidence
Nicholl's runner Unseated last time when just about to make his challenge at Cheltenham in the race won by the beaten horse from my selection's debut.........difficult to know whether he would have won but he'd started to be niggled along so that suggests he's probably no better than the horse beaten 14L by my selection
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Leop 1.55 - Martello Tower - win at 4/1 bog ladbrokes
grade 1 hurdle over 3 miles
the class horse here is Arctic Fire who has a stone and more in hand on his rivals in ORs. However he's up in trip and is not a certain stayer, having only recently moved up from 2 miles. He has won over 20F and if he stays he'll probably win through class but he can pull hard and with the ground riding Heavy there is a doubt whether he'll get home
My selection won the staying novices grade one race at the Cheltenham Festival this year s he certainly will stay. He acts on Heavy and has won first time out for the last 2 seasons
It's always a bit risky backing horses coming from Novice company to open races against experienced runners..................they often take a season to bed in and get used to the faster pace ....................but I'm banking on this turning into a bit of a slog and playing to my horse's strength
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Good luck everyone
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cheers BH..........I expect you'd be quite pleased with that if you'd done the bet !
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Leop 1.15 - Sizing granite - EW at 14/1 bog betvictor
Grade 1 Chase over 2 miles
With Un des Sceaux a well odds on favourite I'm realistically trying to sneak an EW (small field, quarter odds, 2 places) here at inflated evening before the race odds. UdS is making his seasonal debut and he Fell on his seasonal debut last year, his only defeat. If you were clutching at straws you might wonder how fit he'll be now when his aim is Cheltenham in 3 months........and if he's not fully wound up could he be vulnerable to a lazy jump ?
My selection looks 2nd best having won a grade 1 last year and only narrowly gone down to a race fit rival on his seasonal debut. He's won over CD and acts on soft ground
Clarcam also won a grade one last season but he's looked out of sorts this time round and has run worse in each of his 3 runs
British raider Simply Ned is second best on official figures but he's never won outside novice and handicap company
Flemenstar and Hidden Cyclone are past their prime now and it would be a surprise if they beat the younger horses
My horse looks booked for 2nd and could win if the favourite underperforms or falls.
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Good luck everyone !
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In my Nap of the Day race today my horse finished alone........all the other runners either PU or Fell
So it got me wondering what would happen if you'd done one of those 'Total Winning Distances' bets or Spread bets
would they just void the race and somehow adjust the spreads to reflect one less race ?
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Lizzie Kelly becomes the first woman rider to sore a grade one win in the UK.......
But don't be tempted by RSA quotes.........that horse is useless going left handed
So far it's run 14 times under rules.......8 times RH, 6 times LH
right-hand tracks - 11111211
left-hand tracks - 2, 2, 3, PU, 6, 7
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I'm quite pleased that Wetherby is off from the point of view of telly watching.........but it still leaves 4 meetings on RUK
What kind of coverage are we going to get of the big meeting ?........races overlapping, a minute to preview and paddock. straight off to Market Rasen as soon as they cross the line
Could be one of the few days of the year when I turn to Channel 4.........
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I like Smad Place as well
Don Cossack is obviously pretty good........you don't win 5 grade 1 races by being no good. But he does tend to win a lot of fairly uncompetitive small field events in Ireland against the same opposition of whom only 1 in any given race might be a serious rival. He's the most likely winner but there is some doubt about him
Vautour, Cue card........will they stay if the race is run at a scorching pace with several front runners taking each other on ?
Smad Place looks to be on the up, has won around here, definitely gets the trip and should be running on at the finish when others might be tiring
At 8/1 across the board looks a good EW bet...........
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Font 12.55 - Showboater - win at 11/10 bog bet365
Handicap chase
My selection won a similar event last time out by 13L over this CD. Up 6lbs but that wouldn't have stopped him last time.
A repeat performance would see him win this and as that was his chase debut there could be more to come from this lightly raced type
Second favourite is Toohighforme who also won here last time over a longer trip. That was a poor race though and he was destined for a well beaten second place at best when the leader fell at the last. Apart from that that lucky win his best ever performance under rules was to be beaten 33 lengths
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Season's Greeting to all !..........
Bit of pressure on though.........3 days with nowt to do except study the Boxing Day form
I think winners will be expected.........
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Sou 3.00 - Qibtee - win at 8/1 bog wm hill
Poor class 6 handicap
My selection is currently the outsider of the field but he has won recently, a low level handicap on heavy ground at Nottingham
Only 3 lbs above that mark now and gets a pro jockey today - he's usually amateur ridden
He's inconsistent and was well beaten last time but should be better than some of these and has his first go on fibresand which may be putting some punters off. However he's won on heavy and g/f on turf so hopefully isn't that fussed about surface.
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12.40 Ling - Danvinnie - win at 2/1 bog wm hill
Novice hurdle around two and a half miles
My selection was unlucky on hurdles debut when a loose horse carried him across the track in the finishing straight and cost him a possible win, Still finished second and the winner has won against since so he might be considered a winner without a penalty. Has to prove he handles heavy ground but acts on Soft
The only winner here is Westren Warrior who carries the 7lb penalty for winning a maiden hurdle at Sligo. The placed horses have been well beaten several times since so it appears tough to give weight away. Not sure dropping back in trip will suit either as his best runs have come at 3 miles
Main danger is probably Who's Micky Brown, a fairly recent Pont winner who finished 2nd on bumper debut and who should relish this stiffer test and heavy ground.
And in February?
Racing Post
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
It looks like this might be the first running of this Veterans Chase as Past Winners are showing for the other races but not this one
I do seem to remember a policy statement from the BHA that they were going to beef up the programme of Veterans Chases