Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Chelt 2.45 - Rock The World - win at 5/2 bog wm hill
2 mile novice chase
Only 4 runners here but it's a tricky little race to get a grip on
Qewy makes his fencing debut and was probably the best of these over hurdles, finishing 5th in the Supreme and 3rd in an Aintree grade 2 last year after winning a classy novice race at Newbury. His yard are in tremendous form. But he is flat bred and that's usually a worry when horses go chasing. He's also only won on soft ground to date. I suspect he might go off favourite but he looks a bit chancy as to whether he'll be as good over fences.
Sizing Codelco is the outsider of the party. He won a Beginners event at odds on in Ireland last time by 8L but had the fortune of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites all falling. These 'Sizing' horses are usually pretty good but he looks like the worst of these
Paul Nicholl's Dormello Mo has been running through the summer with 6 outings at Newton Abbot. On official figures he's the best in at todays weights and has shown some smart form. But can't help but that summer form at NA is probably not that great in the scheme of things and he has been beaten twice and UR once so it's not as though he was unbeatable even at NA.
That leaves my selection. He's already won a grade 3 over in Ireland and the horse he beat has won 3 grade races since. Found 20F on soft ground too much last time and the return to a shorter trip on good ground should suit
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Good luck !
Cheltenham is back.........hurrah !
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Of course ITV have lost the Champions League so maybe they're casting round for some sport to show and they seem to gradually moving ITV4 into a Sports station, although limited by the fact that they don't have much sport to show. So I could see them being interested in lining up some racing for ITV4
As RUK keep telling us......they are owned by the tracks they cover so I wouldn't have thought there's any incentive for any of those tracks to let ITV cover meetings unless it's some kind of recorded highlights show in the evening
I'm not that fussed myself.......I usually just stick RUK on in the afternoon in the winter but I'm not really watching and in summer I'll watch cricket, cycling etc and just flick over for any race that I want to watch
the presenters mean nothing to me.........Vienna !
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I never watch Channel 4 now that I've got RUK and ATR
I don't even watch The Morning Line any more....
The only time I would ever flick over to Channel 4 would be if a really big race was coming up in a few minutes and RUK/ATR were messing around with a novice hurdle at Cartmel or Ballinrobe 3 minutes before the Derby was due off.......
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I must say that I would prefer a separate thread for different topics.......this forum can look very neglected most of the time with just the Comp thread and Richard's Flat thread most days
Can't remember why we had the thread tidy up a few years ago..........did we used to have lots of threads with one or no replies ?
I guess at the end of the day we're just not a very chatty bunch although I seem to think there was a lot more chat, banter & discussion of the sport a few years ago ?
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Carl 3.55 - Settledoutofcourt - win at 10/1 bog PP
Staying handicap chase
I've found reasons to oppose both market leaders
Courtown Oscar is up 2 grades in class from his winning runs lack back-end and up 10lbs in the weights and has been well beaten when returning from breaks
Orange Nassau goes well fresh and has run OK here but his wins have been on easier or flat tracks. I prefer him to the current favourite (Courtown Oscar) but I'm not keen on the Longsdon yard so tend to oppose his runners unless they look nailed on
I'm looking further down amongst the outsiders and like the chance of Lucinda Russell's runner. Not a regular winner but usually runs OK, has run well here, has had a run out at Hexham (UR) and the yard is in good nick. I fancy him to take advantage if the market leaders fail to deliver
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Font 3.35 - Promanco - win at 11/4 bog betvictor
Handicap hurdle over around 21F
My selection won 2 novice races back in May. She had the summer off and returned in a class 2 here 3 weeks ago with a nice run into 4th staying on as though today's extra couple of furlongs will suit. Has been dropped a pound by the assesor and with the drop in grade, extra trip and hopefully coming on a bit for the run she should have a god chance
Market rival is Taradrewe who has won her last 2.......they were Mares races and this tougher, a higher grade and she's up 9lbs for her last win. I'm happy to take her on despite her evident good current form
Drum Valley looks OK but comes back from 10 months off and is likely to need the run. Handicapper might have him anyway as he hasn't won over hurdles for two and a half years and is still 7lbs higher than that win
Mercers Court could be a big danger......won a novice here last time and looks reasonably handicapped on his form from earlier this year. Although he's won here he's also chucked a couple of races away by hanging or jinking on the run in, unseated rider on the flat once. He's probably the main danger but is he trustworthy ?
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Exe 3.45 - Adrenalin Flight - win at 7/1 bog wm hill
Decent handicap chase around 3 miles
I'm drawn to the 2 course winners here......my selection and Caulfields Venture, both of whom seem to like this track
My horse has won better races than the other and looks a bit less unpredictable.
He ran over hurdles last time and was well beaten but he's a better chaser and the visor is back on today.
I think both of the two I've mentioned have a decent chance but slight preference is for my pick.......and he's bigger odds than the other one.
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Plump 4.00 - Prouts Pub - win at 10/1 bog wm hill
Novices handicap chase over around 19F
My selection won a handicap hurdle last back-end and starts chasing off a 6lb higher mark That looks fair enough as connection reckon he will be a better chaser than hurdler and he's young enough to be making natural progress just by staying alive
This looks his trip and he ran well here over hurdles so the track should be OK
Makes his seasonal debut and has won and finished 2nd on his two seasonal returns to date
Surprised he's one of the outsiders as both The Life and The Post have him as their selections in the race card write ups
I expect he will go off much shorter come race time.
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Good luck........
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Kemp 5.00 - Nearest the Pin - win at 9/2 bog wm hill
Handicap chase
My selection has the look of a horse who's been in the handicappers grip for a while as he keeps running OK and finishing 4th or 5th
I 've a hunch he might put up a better show today
He's slowly dropping down the weights and is now back to his last winning mark. He ran well the only other time he's run at Kempton and he's gradually been getting closer in his last 3 runs. He also has Richard Johnson up today
All his rivals are making their seasonal debuts (there's two non runners) which a couple of them might need and these fences are stiff and can catch out tiring horses so I prefer race fit runners at Kempton
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3.05 Asc - Fascinating Rock - win at 16/1 bog bet365
Champion Stakes - group one 10f
Over the last few years the older horses have dominated this race.......I suppose there might be a logic in that the top class 3yo have probably been on the go since the Guineas and Derby/Oaks trials in the spring which is a long season for young horses
The favourite is Jack Hobbs......he's won the Irish Derby and been beaten in the Derby and Dante. He's only been beaten by Golden Horn so he's probably pretty good and has been given a long break with just a easy run out at Kempton to tick him over. Probably ought to be favourite but there is a doubt over him coming back in trip as well as the long season
My selection is a 4yo who has won 4 times at group 3 level but been beaten when stepping up to higher grades. That is obviously a worry but on the plus side he ran the best race of his career last time out and might now be on an upward curve. I get the impression he was very highly regarded as a younger horse but never quite fulfilled his potential at 3. This looks to be his trip and his ground and he has a terrific turn of foot
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Winc 3.00 - Polisky - win at 11/4 bog bet365
Handicap chase
My selection is a bit risky as he appears to be a 'character' and has his own ideas about the game
But today could be the day to catch him.......he won on seasonal debut last year and both his career wins have come here at Wincanton at around this trip on good to firm ground.
Only won 2 from 25 and does tend to idle in front and finish weakly (been placed 2nd or 3rd 12 times !) so the jockey might have his work cut out but 'Sam' was on him for his last win so does know how to nurse him home.
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4.25 Carl - By The Boardwalk - win at 7/4 bog wm hill
Handicap chase
My selection is very much a chaser on the upgrade having won 3 of his last 4 outings and would probably have won the other one if he hadn't have fallen
They gave him a break after that spill and he appears to have gotten over it as he reappeared with an effortless 9L win at Ayr
Up 34lbs since his winning run began but I don't think the handicapper has got him yet
Best RH, has won on stiff tracks, good going and class 3
Second favourite, Enchanted Garden, looks a doubtful stayer to me and is stepping up in trip on a stiff track
Loose Chips comes here after a break and usually needs a run to put him straight
Straidnahanna could be the main danger as he doesn't look badly weighted on his novice form but he also returns from a break having been well beaten on previous seasonal debuts and he might be best going LH on soft ground
I'd be surprised if my horse doesn't go off much shorter than the currently available 7/4
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Weth 3.50 - Foundation Man - win at 8/1 bog bet365
decent handicap chase, class 3 over 19 furlongs
Won this race last year off a 5lb lower mark. Like today he was coming off a few months break. He also ran well on his only other visit to the track, beaten under a length again after a break. So Wetherby fresh seems a god combination !
Yard hitting form with 4 winners from last 7 runners
Interesting to see how Kauto Stone does having dropped a long way down the weights and running in a handicap. A dual Grade One winner and he's still only 9 years old. Hasn't run yet this year but ran in 4 grade one races last year including the Tingle Creek, Ryanair and the 2 Ascot grade 1 races.
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Good luck !.........
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Coneygree might have a chance as he's already won grade one races at Kempton and Cheltenham
He's also won at Uttoxeter a couple of times which is a LH sharpish flattish track a bit like Haydock
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Whatever lies behind this it's a shame in the sense that northern jumps training has been in decline for some time and this appears to be another nail in the coffin
Having said that if I had a string of 50 horses I'd spread them around a bit.......you wouldn't want all your horses out of action if there was a virus in the yard or a local outbreak of foot and mouth or just a yard badly out of form for unknown reasons
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Muss 2.30 - Sunnyside Bob - win at 7/2 bog bet365
2yo maiden over 5f
I think the current favourite here, Rose Mamara, is a bit of a false favourite and can be taken on. She's only run twice - was well beaten on debut but her market position is based on her 2nd last time out. But that didn't look much of a race and the first and third have been well beaten since.
My selection has been running in much better races.....class 3 and class 2 events. Appeared ill at ease on soft ground last time so should be suited by the better ground today. Has run over 6F and his best effort was over a stiff 5 at Beverley so it's possible this might be a bit sharp but I'm thinking he's better class than these and could negate the speed test by making all
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Sedge 3.40 - Mia's Anthem - win at 9/4 bog bet365
Handicap chase
The current favourite here could well be worth taking on. Highland Lodge finished 4th in the Hennessy a couple of years ago but has appeared to be in decline ever since. He's been picked by the Post today on the basis that this is much the easiest race he's run in for a very long time as his mark has fallen 18lbs since that Hennessy run. However he was beaten a very long way on seasonal reappearance which suggests that his decline might be more than just being badly handicapped after some good runs. He usually goes well after a break but not this time. Blinkers tried today which might perk him up but which also might be seen as a 'not sure what to do with him' gesture from connections
My selection comes here in good nick having won last time by 8L with lots in hand. Trained in Ireland but all 4 of his career wins have come on raids to the UK (easy pickings ?........
). Gone up 12lbs but that would only be a concern in a more competitive race. Gets the trip and appears to act on an ground and track. -
Chep 3.55 - Present View - win at 7/2 bog wm hill
Handicap chase
My selection looked an exciting prospect last season and went off favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Ran OK finished 3rd of 18 beaten 2 lengths. The ground was against him that day as they feel he's a better horse on better ground which he gets today
Ran well on seasonal debut last season so not worried about him needing a run
My main worry is that they're using this as a prep for this years Paddy Power and he might not be given a hard ride.
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Hex 3.35 - Brother Scott - win at 7/2 bog boylesports
Class 4 handicap chase around two and a half miles, good to soft, stiff uphill finish
My selection has run well here the last twice winning then finishing 2nd from out of the handicap
Clearly likes the track and is in good form so should run his race.
Although this looks quite a bit better than the race he won most of his rivals have question marks, on seasonal debut, out of form or not looking to be best suited by stiff tracks
My horse might have been flattered against a decent rival last time but he could win this by default
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Lim 2.05 - In My Pocket - win at 2/9 bog PP
Chep 3.20 - Blaklion - win at 5/2 bog ladbrokes
Hex 3.35 - Brother Scott - win at 7/2 sportingbet
res
Newm 3.10 - Emotionless - win at 6/4 bog wm hill
Good luck everyone !
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Newm 3.10 - Beautiful Morning - win at 14/1 bog bet365
Fillies mile, group one
There's a few in here that already have group race form, including a group one winner in Minding. The horse that finished 2nd to her in the Moyglare won a group one on Arc day so that looks rock solid and she's the obvious favourite
I'm taking a chance that one of the less exposed maiden winners is something special. She won the big maiden race at the York Ebor meeting and straightaway connections said she was a Fillies Mile and Guineas horse
Beautifully bred as you might expect and cost a fortune........can she handle a step up in class ?
Cheltenham Races ~ Friday October 23rd
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Good luck Aidy !.......
here's my selection from the Naps Comp.......
Chelt 2.45 - Rock The World - win at 5/2 bog wm hill
2 mile novice chase
Only 4 runners here but it's a tricky little race to get a grip on
Qewy makes his fencing debut and was probably the best of these over hurdles, finishing 5th in the Supreme and 3rd in an Aintree grade 2 last year after winning a classy novice race at Newbury. His yard are in tremendous form. But he is flat bred and that's usually a worry when horses go chasing. He's also only won on soft ground to date. I suspect he might go off favourite but he looks a bit chancy as to whether he'll be as good over fences.
Sizing Codelco is the outsider of the party. He won a Beginners event at odds on in Ireland last time by 8L but had the fortune of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites all falling. These 'Sizing' horses are usually pretty good but he looks like the worst of these
Paul Nicholl's Dormello Mo has been running through the summer with 6 outings at Newton Abbot. On official figures he's the best in at todays weights and has shown some smart form. But can't help but that summer form at NA is probably not that great in the scheme of things and he has been beaten twice and UR once so it's not as though he was unbeatable even at NA.
That leaves my selection. He's already won a grade 3 over in Ireland and the horse he beat has won 3 grade races since. Found 20F on soft ground too much last time and the return to a shorter trip on good ground should suit